CFB Index
June 22, 2026 · Dead Period · Heritage Window · 2026 Outlook

Miami (OH)

7-7 2025 final

Miami (OH) is the MAC program whose 'Cradle of Coaches' legacy + Paul Brown / Woody Hayes / Bo Schembechler coaching pipeline + 2024 9-4 Sun Bowl appearance define what historic-football-coaching-lineage looks like.

Swoop the RedHawk is at his perch.

Record
7-7
win% .500
SP+
+0.1
AP / Coaches
Bowl Status
Eligible
Dead PeriodOffseasonPatientPost-loss — diagnostic
The Long Wait·Offseason

Miami is the Cradle of Coaches — the small Ohio school that taught the sport its giants, from Paul Brown to Woody Hayes to Bo Schembechler — and a program whose history runs deeper than the conference it now keeps falling one game short in.

Title DroughtSince 2019 · 6 yrs

Miami went 7-7 (6-2 MAC) in 2025, reaching its third straight MAC Championship Game under Chuck Martin and losing 23-13 to Western Michigan, then falling 18-3 to Fresno State in the Arizona Bowl. Martin returns for 2026 with the R…

offseason · quiet
Read the full program story ↓

Paul Brown went to college in Oxford, Ohio. So did Woody Hayes, Ara Parseghian, and Bo Schembechler. The Cradle of Coaches produced the men who built the sport — and the program they came from has now been to three straight MAC Championship Games and lost all three.

Miami University's contribution to football runs deeper than its conference record. Paul Brown went to Oxford and became the architect of modern pro football — the draft, the playbook, the practice structure. Woody Hayes went to Oxford and built Ohio State. Ara Parseghian went to Oxford and won Notre Dame national championships. Bo Schembechler went to Oxford and defined Michigan for two decades. No program of Miami's size has produced that concentration of coaching influence, and the program's identity — 'Love and Honor,' the Victory Bell, the Cradle of Coaches plaza — rests on a heritage that belongs to all of college football, not just the MAC.

The present-tense arc is Chuck Martin's run at the MAC title. Martin has the RedHawks in three straight championship games and has lost all three — including a 23-13 loss to Western Michigan in 2025, followed by an 18-3 bowl loss to Fresno State. The fanbase carries that ache with a specific mixture of pride and frustration: pride that the program is good enough to be there, frustration that the game that would hang hardware next to the Cradle of Coaches statues keeps ending just short. Martin returns for 2026. The roster returns largely intact. The MAC Championship Game will be there again.

The 2026 question is specific: what does Miami do differently on Championship Saturday? The program's roster quality is not the gap — three title game appearances in three years is not an accident. The question is whether the fourth trip produces the result the other three didn't, and whether the Cradle of Coaches name gets hardware added to its legacy in Martin's era.

How they play

Disciplined, fundamentals-first MAC football — the kind of program you'd expect from the school that trained the sport's great teaching coaches. Miami runs physical, gap-sound football on defense and a balanced offensive attack that doesn't ask the scheme to carry the roster. Martin's teams are consistent at winning regular-season games through execution and lose fewer games than they should on talent alone. The gap has shown up on championship Saturdays.

program outlook · as of 2026-06-14
How They Play · 2025

Miami (OH) fields a struggling offense behind a strong, bend-don't-break defense.

OffensePoor21st pct EPA/play · FBS
DefenseStrong76th pct EPA allowed · FBS
Defensive shapeBend-don't-break68th pct at limiting explosive plays

Identity computed from opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate, explosiveness, and run/pass volume — percentiles vs all FBS.

Offseason

69 days

until kickoff · Sun Aug 30 · 17:00 UTC

Act I

The 2026 Outlook

2026 Preview Thesis 2026 Evidence-validated

Miami (OH) projects to finish 8-5 with bowl eligibility in 2026

The team's moderate continuity and balanced portal churn suggest a stable but not dominant season, with a focus on depth over star power.

  • Roster reloadMiami (OH) has a returning total pct of 48% and a recruiting rank of #83, indicating a moderate continuity and reliance on depth class recruitment.
Data as of 2026-06-21 · Validated against program evidence

Offseason Pulse · Miami (OH)

Roster · Recruiting · Portal

Recruiting Class

#83 nationally

2025 cycle · 247 composite rating 164.2

Outside the recruiting top 60. Roster gaps must close via portal.

Returning Production

48%

2025 cycle · CFBD weighted

Mid-pack continuity. QB transition under way.

Talent Composite

#87 nationally

2025 cycle · 247 composite 592.1

Outside the talent top 60. The wins must be earned in development.

Portal Movement

16 in / 14 out

2026 cycle · in 16 / out 14

Incoming and outgoing movement are tracked separately in Roster Reload.

Miami (OH) · the story right now 1 storyline developing

What Miami (OH)'s offseason is really about

the open questionwhere does it go from here?

this cycle✓ factnew

Miami (OH) enters 2025 rated No. 82 in SP+ (-3.4), down 14 spots from 2024.

why it mattersMiami (OH) dropped 14 spots in SP+ — Chuck Martin's sixth season opens with the steepest SP+ collapse in the MAC this cycle.
narrative tension · our read

The Offseason Ledger · Miami (OH)

1 verified move · portal · recruiting · staff
  1. Portal

    CB Amariyun Knighten transfer commits from Indiana

    Big Ten corner falls to the MAC for snaps — Knighten was buried, RedHawks get a starter on day one.

    Mar 2CFBD /player/portal

Roster Reload - Miami (OH)

2026 snapshot - 2026-06-21
Returning Production48%Moderate continuity
Portal Additions16Primary repair: OT
Portal Losses14Primary pressure: EDGE
Draft Loss1NFL Draft departures (1)
Recruiting Reload#83Depth class (#83)
CBin 2 - Mason Ellens3.50out 3 - Mychal Yharbrough3.60Downgrade
WRin 2 - Damarion Witten3.60out 3 - Cordale Russell4.28Downgrade
EDGEin 1 - Mikah Coleman3.60out 3 - Adam Trick4.00Starter Risk
OTin 3 - Evan Malcore3.50out 1 - Drew Terrill3.50Need Filled
Sin 2 - Ben Minich4.28out 1 - Koy Beasley3.60Upgrade
RBin 2 - Cade Yacamelli3.50out 1 - Tito Glass Jr.3.49Even

The Pulse on Miami (OH)

Archive · Late Spring · 600 mentions · medium confidence
76
Δ +7.6 vs last wk
600 mentions this week · conversation velocity

What moved it — offseason · last 30 days

June Dead-period quiet — official-visit + heritage window
Camp Fall camp ~40 days out
"Miami (OH)" — Miami (OH) fanbase · recurring line

Aspiration Ladder

Brief Part III §33.4 · Miami (OH)

8 wins

Above the program's recent baseline.

Beat a top-10 opponent

Statement win that reshapes recruiting.

Conference championship game appearance

Plausible breakthrough.

NY6 bowlLocked

Beyond modern reach without a transformative year.

Miami (OH) · Next-Season Outcome Band

Floor / Base / Ceiling

floor5-7No postseason.
base8-5Bowl game.
ceiling10-3Bowl game.

Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.

Market outlook

Season expectations

Win total3 booksO/U 7.5
CFP championship#97 in field+100000
MAC title#2 in market+340

Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-06-22

Recruiting Reload - Top 3 commits

2026 class
★★★☆☆
Will Pressley
WR · Oak Ridge, TN
#865 national
★★★☆☆
Tristan Reed
WR · Washington, PA
#1500 national
★★★☆☆
Justen Hodge
WR · Mentor, OH
#1722 national

Recruiting Footprint · 2026

18
OH · 6MI · 5IL · 2PA · 2TN · 2AL · 1

OH leads the 2026 class with 6 commits. National footprint reaching 6 states.

Where they recruit · 2023-2026

72 signees across 12 states, 2023-2026. OH leads the pull.

MEVTNHWAIDMTNDMNWIMINYMAORNVWYSDIAILINOHPANJCTCAUTCONEMOKYWVVAMDDERIAZNMKSARTNNCSCDCOKLAMSALGAAKHITXFL
Source CFB Index · player_recruiting_profiles
Act II

Who We Are

Program Prestige · Miami (OH)

Power Program

Power Program — consistent P4 presence and regional brand strength.

Historical peak: Tier 4 · National Program (1955 9-0 + Tangerine Bowl championship under Ara Parseghian; 'Cradle of Coaches' coaching lineage (Paul Brown 1928-1929 / Woody Hayes 1949-1950 / Ara Parseghian 1951-1955 / Bo Schembechler 1963-1968)). Current tier: Tier 3.

T1Regional
T2Mid-Major
T3Power
T4National
T5Blue Blood
T6Dynasty
T7All-Time

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank Miami (OH)

CFB Index

#68

+0.1

SP+

#82

-3.4

FPI

#89

-5.7

Elo

#85

1400

SRS

#92

-5.6

The national models put Miami (OH) between 82nd and 92nd nationally — the CFB Index is higher on them than any of these models, at 68th.

National rank of 136 FBS teams · 2025 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Index ranked by rating.

Most Similar Programs · Miami (OH)

Reads Like

Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.

Coaching Era · Miami (OH)

Chuck Martin

Chuck Martin has held the program for 6 seasons — the era is established.

Era Chuck Martin · 2020–present
6 years · era

Rituals

Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.

Cradle of Coaches Lineage

since 1928

Miami (OH)'s 'Cradle of Coaches' identity — the coaching lineage that produced Paul Brown (Browns + Bengals), Woody Hayes (Ohio State + Big Ten), Ara Parseghian (Notre Dame + 2 national titles), Bo Schembechler (Michigan + 13 Big Ten titles), Carmen Cozza (Yale), John Pont (Yale + Northwestern), Sid Gillman (Chargers + Hall of Fame), and others — is one of CFB's most-storied historical anchors. Most coaching-tree lineage in CFB history.

Victory Bell (vs Cincinnati)

since 1888

Miami (OH)-Cincinnati plays for the Victory Bell — the oldest non-Ivy League rivalry in CFB at 130+ meetings since 1888. The bell trophy's annual home depends on the outcome. The In-State Ohio Battle of Southwest Ohio is the structural conference fixture across MAC era + Cincinnati's Big 12 entry.

Love and Honor (Alma Mater)

since 1908

'Love and Honor' — Miami's alma mater (composed 1908) — is sung after every game by both fans and players, win or lose. The tradition of singing alma mater post-game is universal in CFB, but the Love and Honor lyrics + the post-game ritual are uniquely Miami (OH). The tradition + the Cradle of Coaches legacy anchor program identity.

Fanbase Health Index · Miami (OH) · medium confidence

Growing (65)

DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 7-7 (50% win rate)58
Volume — 127 effective signal-N72

Home-Field Advantage · Miami (OH) · 2018-present

Strong

78% home win rate vs 51% on the road. margin runs +13.2 better at home.

Home22-6Away17-16

Chronicle Visuals

6 deterministic SVG · provenance-gated
2026 preview

Average 2025 continuity (48% back) — offense anchors it, qb room is the stress point.

Average 2025 continuity (48% back) — offense anchors it, qb room is the stress point.QB room is the stress point for 2025. Source: CFB Index — returning production vs the FBS average (dashed = league avg) · 2025 · high confidenceRETURNING PRODUCTION · 2025Average 2025 continuity (48% back) —offense anchors it, qb room is thestress point.QB roomQB room: 14% returning14%OffenseOffense: 48% returning48%OverallOverall: 48% returning48%▸ QB room is the stress point for 2025.Source: CFB Index — returning production vs the FBS average(dashed = league avg) · 2025 · high confidence
model-confident
2026 preview

The portal upgraded the S room but opened a hole at WR.

The portal upgraded the S room but opened a hole at WR.Net +2 · upgraded S · hole at WR. Source: CFB Index — transfer portal in/out by position (count) · 2026 · 16 in / 14 out · high confidenceTRANSFER PORTAL · 2026The portal upgraded the S room butopened a hole at WR.OUTINCBCB: 3 out3CB: 2 in2net -1DLDL: 1 in1net +1EDGEEDGE: 3 out3EDGE: 1 in1net -2IOLIOL: 1 in1net +1LBLB: 1 out1LB: 1 in1net 0OTOT: 1 out1OT: 3 in3net +2QBQB: 1 out1QB: 1 in1net 0RBRB: 1 out1RB: 2 in2net +1SS: 1 out1S: 2 in2net +1WRWR: 3 out3WR: 2 in2net -1▸ Net +2 · upgraded S · hole at WR.Source: CFB Index — transfer portal in/out by position(count) · 2026 · 16 in / 14 out · high confidence
model-confident
2026 preview

1 player drafted in 2026; the reload runs through the portal and recruiting.

1 player drafted in 2026; the reload runs through the portal and recruiting.1 drafted · 1 capital units. Source: CFB Index — round-weighted draft capital lost by position + portal answers · 2026 · low confidenceNFL DRAFT · 20261 player drafted in 2026; the reloadruns through the portal and recruiting.LBLB: 1 pick1 pick+1 portal▸ 1 drafted · 1 capital units.Source: CFB Index — round-weighted draft capital lost byposition + portal answers · 2026 · low confidence
early signal
2026 preview

Miami (OH) sits where recruit talent and draft yield largely match.

Miami (OH) sits where recruit talent and draft yield largely match.Talent 34th, draft yield 20th among 132 programs. Source: CFB Index — recruit talent vs draft-pick yield · 2025 · 132 programs · high confidenceMIAMI (OH) · TALENT YIELDMiami (OH) sits where recruit talent anddraft yield largely match.Recruit talent (percentile) →Draft yield (percentile) →Georgia — 99 / 99 pctileBaylor — 73 / 35 pctileWashington State — 28 / 64 pctileCentral Michigan — 8 / 43 pctileOld Dominion — 7 / 51 pctileMiami (OH) — 34 / 20 pctileMiami (OH)Washington StateOld DominionCentral MichiganGeorgiaBaylor▸ Talent 34th, draft yield 20th among 132 programs.Source: CFB Index — recruit talent vs draft-pick yield ·2025 · 132 programs · high confidence
model-confident
2024 season

Calm on the surface in 2024 — but the weekly trend ran the wrong way.

Calm on the surface in 2024 — but the weekly trend ran the wrong way.calm on the surface, but trending the wrong way. Source: CFB Index — per-game power-rating swings · 2024 · 8 games · medium confidenceTHE WEEK-TO-WEEK RIDE · 2024Calm on the surface in 2024 — but theweekly trend ran the wrong way.Game 1: -0.09 power swingGame 2: -0.09 power swingGame 3: -0.57 power swingGame 4: -0.57 power swingGame 5: -0.66 power swingGame 6: -0.66 power swingGame 7: -0.42 power swingGame 8: -0.42 power swing-0.7▲ stock-up week▼ stock-down week▸ calm on the surface, but trending the wrong way.Source: CFB Index — per-game power-rating swings · 2024 · 8games · medium confidence
solid read
2024 season

L 6-13 vs Northwestern leads the season's top 4 results by combined power and résumé delta.

L 6-13 vs Northwestern leads the season's top 4 results by combined power and résumé delta.L 6-13 vs Northwestern is the biggest mover. Source: CFB Index — results ranked by combined power + résumé impact · top 4 games · medium confidenceSTATEMENT WINS · TOP 4 RESULTSL 6-13 vs Northwestern leads theseason's top 4 results by combined powerand résumé delta.L 6-13 vs NorthwesternL 6-13 vs Northwestern — -0.09 résumé impactL 6-13 vs Northwestern — -0.09 résumé impact-0.09W 23-20 vs MassachusettsW 23-20 vs Massachusetts — -0.17 résumé impact-0.17L 16-27 vs CincinnatiL 16-27 vs Cincinnati — -0.47 résumé impact-0.47L 3-28 vs Notre DameL 3-28 vs Notre Dame — -0.72 résumé impact-0.72▸ L 6-13 vs Northwestern is the biggest mover.Source: CFB Index — results ranked by combined power +résumé impact · top 4 games · medium confidence
solid read
THE SAVANT CARD · Miami (OH) · 2025

Miami (OH) reads strongest in epa allowed (top 25%) and success rate allowed (top 31%); the crux lives in success rate, where Miami (OH) sits at the 20th percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.09
21st
Success Rate +0.39
21st
Explosive Plays +1.20
27th
Rushing EPA +0.05
28th

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed +0.08
76th
Success Rate Allowed +0.39
69th
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.21
68th
Passing EPA Allowed +0.18
66th

hidden math · special situations

Passing EPA +0.21
37th
Rushing EPA Allowed +0.05
65th
ELITE · 90+STRONG · 70+AVERAGE · 40-70CONCERN · 10-40BOTTOM · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · opponent-adjusted · 14 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 139 FBS peers
How the room reactedreal evidence · tap rooms to explore
FOLLOWING NOW · MIAMI (OH) · SEASON OUTLOOK Confidence

Miami (OH) enters the season in the middle of the pack. That's the whole tension.

Miami (OH) enters 2025 rated No. 82 in SP+ (-3.4), down 14 spots from 2024. SP+ is a tempo-free efficiency model — it describes what the program HAS done. The season is the test of whether it's still true. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.

CFB INDEX READ · our read
Miami (OH) dropped 14 spots in SP+ — Chuck Martin's sixth season opens with the steepest SP+ collapse in the MAC this cycle.
Source of record: Miami (OH) enters 2025 rated No. 82 in SP+ (-3.4), down 14 spots from 2024.

Every line is a door. Evidence opens in place — verbatim outlet headlines for news sources, verbatim fan text attributed to the community not the individual (never a username). Works with JavaScript off.

HOW EACH ROOM IS REACTING — TAP TO EXPAND
The Believers bullishThe Skeptics no dissentThe Boards loud
📣THE BELIEVERS2 bullish/recruiting items — the case it's working.

The optimistic read: recruiting wins, momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.

“Boston College Football Lands 2027 Three-Star Interior Lineman, Flips Safety From Miami (Ohio)”
Sports Illustrated · 2026-06-14 · read ↗
“Ranking The Best Miami (Ohio) Football Players Of All-Time”
HERO Sports · 2026-06-12 · read ↗
“Miami University Football Preview 2026: Another Run at the MAC Crown”
College Football News · 2026-06-22 · read ↗
🧐THE SKEPTICSNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.

The analytical counter: rankings, results and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.

Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.

💬THE BOARDS21% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in.

This event was in 24 of 112 board posts (21%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.

"I was on instagram the other day and got an ad for Miami University. The ad was this picture of this guy that looks like Luka Doncic receiving his diploma. I tried talking to my fr"
r/miamioh fan
"I’m an incoming freshman to Miami U and I haven’t seen ANYONE majoring in art or art education or anything.. is there anyone here that knows anyone in that major/is in that major t"
r/miamioh fan

The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice. Per-event for/against lands when event-level sentiment coverage is wired.

Act III

Last Season Reviewed

2025 season · tap to expand

Recent Form · last 10 games

Cooling

Two of five. Schedule has caught up.

Streak L2Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 6-4

Season Standing · 2025 · 7-7

Bowl eligible

Miami (OH): 6+ wins, bowl access secured. The baseline of a successful FBS year.

Sub-FBSBuildingBowlRankedContenderPlayoff

Mid-American Standing · 2025

6th in the Mid-American

Miami (OH) sits 6th of 13 in the Mid-American at 7-7. Mid-conference — moves up or down depend on rivalry results and the late-season closing run.

#ProgramRecord
1Western Michigan10-4
2Ohio9-4
3Toledo8-5
4Sacramento State7-5
5Central Michigan7-6
6Miami (OH)7-7
7Akron5-7
8Buffalo5-7
9Kent State5-7
10Ball State4-8
11Bowling Green4-8
12Eastern Michigan4-8
13Massachusetts0-12

Schedule Strength · Miami (OH) · 2025

Balanced

Average opponent win rate 49% across 13 finalized games. No top-25 opponents, but mid-tier slate kept the schedule honest.

Opp Win %0.495
Top-250
Top-100

Top Players · 2025

2025
1. Eli Blakey DB 118 tot (def)
2. Jackson Kuwatch LB 101 tot (def)
3. Corban Hondru LB 84.0 tot (def)
4. Kamryn Perry WR 976 yds (rec)
5. Silas Walters DB 71.0 tot (def)

NFL Draft Pipeline

2022–2026

Thin

2 picks last 5 cycles. Roster development still maturing.

2 picks · 0 R1
#174 Dominique Robinson Outside Linebacker · 2022 · Chicago
#227 Jackson Kuwatch Linebacker · 2026 · Carolina

Moment of the Year · Miami (OH) · 2025

Postseason · Lost 3-18 at Fresno State

Week 18 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.

Decisive MarginPostseason

Bowl / Postseason Ledger

Recent postseason (2022-2025): 1-3

Most recent: 2025 — loss 18-3 (away). Last 5 postseason: 1-3.

2025202420232022

From the Archive — Miami (OH)

2023: Won 30-16 at Ohio

In 2023, the program won 30-16 at Ohio — a comfortable road result that left the 14-point margin on the books.

Beat ___ (anyone). The RedHawks soar.