CFB Index
June 22, 2026 · Dead Period · Heritage Window · 2026 Outlook

Central Michigan

7-6 2025 final

Central Michigan is the Mid-American program known for the chippewas.

The Chippewas bide their time.

Record
7-6
win% .538
SP+
-0.5
Bowl Odds
Eligible
Year-over-Year
7 wins
Dead PeriodOffseasonPatientPost-loss — diagnostic
The Long Wait·Offseason

Central Michigan enters the 2026 season at 7-6.

2025 Record7-6
offseason · quiet
Read the full program story ↓

Offseason

69 days

until kickoff · Sun Aug 30 · 17:00 UTC

Act I

The 2026 Outlook

2026 Preview Thesis 2026 Evidence-validated

Central Michigan faces a high-reload season with limited continuity

The team returns only 10% of its roster, with significant transfers out and a low recruiting rank of #113. The heavy reliance on incoming transfers, particularly in key positions like CB and S, introduces uncertainty into the season's outcome.

  • Roster reloadCentral Michigan returns only 10% of its roster, with significant transfers out and a low recruiting rank of #113.
Data as of 2026-06-21 · Validated against program evidence

Offseason Pulse · Central Michigan

Roster · Recruiting · Portal

Recruiting Class

#113 nationally

2025 cycle · 247 composite rating 128.4

Outside the recruiting top 60. Roster gaps must close via portal.

Returning Production

10%

2025 cycle · CFBD weighted

Heavy roster turnover. QB room mostly intact.

Talent Composite

#121 nationally

2025 cycle · 247 composite 481.2

Outside the talent top 60. The wins must be earned in development.

Portal Movement

12 in / 17 out

2026 cycle · in 12 / out 17

Portal losses outpace additions; position detail lives in Roster Reload.

Central Michigan · the story right now 1 storyline developing

What Central Michigan's offseason is really about

the open questionwhere does it go from here?

this cycle✓ factnew

Central Michigan enters 2025 rated No. 100 in SP+ (-8.8), up 20 spots from 2024.

the contextbottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season
why it mattersCentral Michigan jumped 20 spots in SP+ — Matt Drinkall's first season opens with bottom-quintile production returning and a 7-6 record to build on.
narrative tension · our read

Roster Reload - Central Michigan

2026 snapshot - 2026-06-21
Returning Production10%Low continuity / heavy reload
Portal Additions12Primary repair: S
Portal Losses17Primary pressure: CB
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#113Depth class (#113)
TEin 3 - Dontae Robinson3.00out 2 - Travis Ambrose3.49Even
WRin 1 - Shawn Foster2.00out 3 - Langston Lewis3.50Starter Risk
CBin 1 - Donavan Philord3.49out 3 - Brenden Deasfernandes3.70Starter Risk
OTin 2 - Nic DiSanto3.30out 2 - Jacob Booth3.49Even
IOLin 1 - Losini Maka1.00out 2 - Apisa Poumele3.50Downgrade
RBin 2 - Jayden Clerveaux1.00out 1 - Trey Cornist3.49Even

The Pulse on Central Michigan

Quiet · dead period heritage · signal ramps back in camp
—
The Chippewas bide their time.

What moved it — offseason · last 30 days

June Dead-period quiet — official-visit + heritage window —
Camp Fall camp ~40 days out
"Go Chippewas." — Central Michigan fanbase · recurring line
11 mentions · awaiting signal

Aspiration Ladder

Brief Part III §33.4 · Central Michigan

Bowl eligibility (6 wins)—

The baseline goal for a program at this stage.

Beat a rival—

The narrative win the season is graded by.

Statement year—

Exceed last season by 2+ wins.

Conference championshipLocked—

Out of reach without a transformative year.

Central Michigan · Next-Season Outcome Band

Floor / Base / Ceiling

floor3-9No postseason.
base5-7No postseason.
ceiling8-5Bowl game.

Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.

Market outlook

Season expectations

Win total3 booksO/U 6.5
CFP championship#118 in field+100000
MAC title#5 in market+710

Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-06-22

Recruiting Reload - Top 3 commits

2026 class
★★★☆☆
Wyatt Graffin
IOL · Columbus, WI
#1500 national
★★★☆☆
Traverse Moore
S · DeWitt, MI
#1750 national
★★★☆☆
Colton Benaitis
S · Lockport, IL
#1750 national

Recruiting Footprint · 2026

21
MI · 10IL · 4IN · 3FL · 1OH · 1PA · 1WI · 1

MI leads the 2026 class with 10 commits. National footprint reaching 7 states.

Where they recruit · 2023-2026

69 signees across 12 states, 2023-2026. MI leads the pull.

MEVTNHWAIDMTNDMNWIMINYMAORNVWYSDIAILINOHPANJCTCAUTCONEMOKYWVVAMDDERIAZNMKSARTNNCSCDCOKLAMSALGAAKHITXFL
Source CFB Index · player_recruiting_profiles
Act II

Who We Are

Program Prestige · Central Michigan

Mid-Major Contender

Mid-Major Contender — G5 force with occasional national attention.

T1Regional
T2Mid-Major
T3Power
T4National
T5Blue Blood
T6Dynasty
T7All-Time

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank Central Michigan

CFB Index

#75

-0.5

SP+

#100

-8.8

FPI

#107

-11.2

Elo

#112

1232

SRS

#99

-8.4

The national models put Central Michigan between 99th and 112th nationally — the CFB Index is higher on them than any of these models, at 75th.

National rank of 136 FBS teams · 2025 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Index ranked by rating.

Most Similar Programs · Central Michigan

Reads Like

MarylandAdjacent tierUConnAdjacent tierVanderbiltAdjacent tier

Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.

Coaching Era · Central Michigan

Matt Drinkall

Matt Drinkall took over from Jim McElwain for the 2025 season.

Era Matt Drinkall · 2025–presentPrev: Jim McElwain (2020–2024)
1 year · era

Fanbase Health Index · Central Michigan · medium confidence

Growing (55)

DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 7-6 (54% win rate)60
Volume — 10 effective signal-N51

Home-Field Advantage · Central Michigan · 2018-present

Elite

64% home win rate vs 32% on the road. margin runs +15.2 better at home.

Home20-11Away11-23

Chronicle Visuals

6 deterministic SVG · provenance-gated
2026 preview

A heavy-turnover 2025: 10% returning (below average), with the offense the biggest question.

A heavy-turnover 2025: 10% returning (below average), with the offense the biggest question.Offense is the stress point for 2025. Source: CFB Index — returning production vs the FBS average (dashed = league avg) · 2025 · high confidenceRETURNING PRODUCTION · 2025A heavy-turnover 2025: 10% returning(below average), with the offense thebiggest question.QB roomQB room: 57% returning57%OffenseOffense: 10% returning10%OverallOverall: 10% returning10%▸ Offense is the stress point for 2025.Source: CFB Index — returning production vs the FBS average(dashed = league avg) · 2025 · high confidence
model-confident
2026 preview

The portal upgraded the S room but opened a hole at EDGE.

The portal upgraded the S room but opened a hole at EDGE.Net -5 · upgraded S · hole at EDGE. Source: CFB Index — transfer portal in/out by position (count) · 2026 · 12 in / 17 out · high confidenceTRANSFER PORTAL · 2026The portal upgraded the S room butopened a hole at EDGE.OUTINCBCB: 3 out3CB: 1 in1net -2DLDL: 1 out1net -1EDGEEDGE: 2 out2net -2IOLIOL: 2 out2IOL: 1 in1net -1LBLB: 1 out1net -1OTOT: 2 out2OT: 2 in2net 0RBRB: 1 out1RB: 2 in2net +1SS: 2 in2net +2TETE: 2 out2TE: 3 in3net +1WRWR: 3 out3WR: 1 in1net -2▸ Net -5 · upgraded S · hole at EDGE.Source: CFB Index — transfer portal in/out by position(count) · 2026 · 12 in / 17 out · high confidence
model-confident
2026 preview

1 player drafted in 2025; the reload runs through the portal and recruiting.

1 player drafted in 2025; the reload runs through the portal and recruiting.1 drafted · 1 capital units. Source: CFB Index — round-weighted draft capital lost by position + portal answers · 2025 · low confidenceNFL DRAFT · 20251 player drafted in 2025; the reloadruns through the portal and recruiting.DBDB: 1 pick1 pick+3 portal▸ 1 drafted · 1 capital units.Source: CFB Index — round-weighted draft capital lost byposition + portal answers · 2025 · low confidence
early signal
2026 preview

Central Michigan converts recruit talent into draft picks better than its class rank suggests.

Central Michigan converts recruit talent into draft picks better than its class rank suggests.Talent 8th, draft yield 43th among 132 programs. Source: CFB Index — recruit talent vs draft-pick yield · 2025 · 132 programs · high confidenceCENTRAL MICHIGAN · TALENT YIELDCentral Michigan converts recruit talentinto draft picks better than its classrank suggests.Recruit talent (percentile) →Draft yield (percentile) →Georgia — 99 / 99 pctileBaylor — 73 / 35 pctileWashington State — 28 / 64 pctileOld Dominion — 7 / 51 pctileKennesaw State — 1 / 35 pctileCentral Michigan — 8 / 43 pctileCentral MichiganWashington StateOld DominionKennesaw StateGeorgiaBaylor▸ Talent 8th, draft yield 43th among 132 programs.Source: CFB Index — recruit talent vs draft-pick yield ·2025 · 132 programs · high confidence
model-confident
2024 season

Calm on the surface in 2024 — but the weekly trend ran the wrong way.

Calm on the surface in 2024 — but the weekly trend ran the wrong way.calm on the surface, but trending the wrong way. Source: CFB Index — per-game power-rating swings · 2024 · 10 games · high confidenceTHE WEEK-TO-WEEK RIDE · 2024Calm on the surface in 2024 — but theweekly trend ran the wrong way.Game 1: -2.12 power swingGame 2: -2.12 power swingGame 3: +0.53 power swingGame 4: +0.53 power swingGame 5: -0.16 power swingGame 6: -0.16 power swingGame 7: -0.06 power swingGame 8: -0.06 power swingGame 9: -0.35 power swingGame 10: -0.35 power swing-2.1▲ stock-up week▼ stock-down week▸ calm on the surface, but trending the wrong way.Source: CFB Index — per-game power-rating swings · 2024 · 10games · high confidence
model-confident
2024 season

W 37-34 vs Ball State leads the season's top 5 results by combined power and résumé delta.

W 37-34 vs Ball State leads the season's top 5 results by combined power and résumé delta.W 37-34 vs Ball State is the biggest mover. Source: CFB Index — results ranked by combined power + résumé impact · top 5 games · medium confidenceSTATEMENT WINS · TOP 5 RESULTSW 37-34 vs Ball State leads the season'stop 5 results by combined power andrésumé delta.W 37-34 vs Ball StateW 37-34 vs Ball State — +0.24 résumé impactW 37-34 vs Ball State — +0.24 résumé impact+0.24W 22-21 vs San Diego StateW 22-21 vs San Diego State — -0.14 résumé impact-0.14L 9-30 vs IllinoisL 9-30 vs Illinois — -0.20 résumé impact-0.20L 16-52 vs Florida InternatioL 16-52 vs Florida International — -0.43 résumé impact-0.43W 66-10 vs Central ConnecticuW 66-10 vs Central Connecticut — -2.12 résumé impact-2.12▸ W 37-34 vs Ball State is the biggest mover.Source: CFB Index — results ranked by combined power +résumé impact · top 5 games · medium confidence
solid read
How the room reactedreal evidence · tap rooms to explore
FOLLOWING NOW · CENTRAL MICHIGAN · SEASON OUTLOOK Confidence

Central Michigan enters the season in the middle of the pack. That's the whole tension.

Central Michigan enters 2025 rated No. 100 in SP+ (-8.8), up 20 spots from 2024. It is bottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season. SP+ is a tempo-free efficiency model — it describes what the program HAS done. The season is the test of whether it's still true. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.

near-unanimous belief where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers5 bull takes
CFB INDEX READ · our read
Central Michigan jumped 20 spots in SP+ — Matt Drinkall's first season opens with bottom-quintile production returning and a 7-6 record to build on.
Source of record: Central Michigan enters 2025 rated No. 100 in SP+ (-8.8), up 20 spots from 2024 — bottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season.

Every line is a door. Evidence opens in place — verbatim outlet headlines for news sources, verbatim fan text attributed to the community not the individual (never a username). Works with JavaScript off.

HOW EACH ROOM IS REACTING — TAP TO EXPAND
The Believers bullishThe Skeptics no dissent
📣THE BELIEVERS5 bullish/recruiting items — the case it's working.›

The optimistic read: recruiting wins, momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.

“Michigan lands first commitment in 2028 recruiting class”
MLive.com · 2026-06-21 · read ↗
“Arkansas lands Central Michigan RHP Luke Neiswonger”
On3 · 2026-06-19 · read ↗
“Central Michigan 2022 Football Decommits in Indiana”
247Sports · 2026-06-19 · read ↗
🧐THE SKEPTICSNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›

The analytical counter: rankings, results and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.

Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.

Act III

Last Season Reviewed

2025 season · tap to expand

Recent Form · last 10 games

Cooling

Two of five. Schedule has caught up.

Streak L2Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 6-4

Season Standing · 2025 · 7-6

Bowl eligible

Central Michigan: 6+ wins, bowl access secured. The baseline of a successful FBS year.

Sub-FBSBuildingBowlRankedContenderPlayoff

Mid-American Standing · 2025

5th in the Mid-American

Central Michigan sits 5th of 13 in the Mid-American at 7-6. Mid-conference — moves up or down depend on rivalry results and the late-season closing run.

#ProgramRecord
1Western Michigan10-4
2Ohio9-4
3Toledo8-5
4Sacramento State7-5
5Central Michigan7-6
6Miami (OH)7-7
7Akron5-7
8Buffalo5-7
9Kent State5-7
10Ball State4-8
11Bowling Green4-8
12Eastern Michigan4-8
13Massachusetts0-12

Schedule Strength · Central Michigan · 2025

Hard

Average opponent win rate 44% across 13 finalized games. 2 AP top-25 opponents played (Pittsburgh, Michigan).

Opp Win %0.443
Top-252
Top-100

Top Players · 2025

2025
1. Jordan Kwiatkowski LB 112 tot (def)
2. Dakota Cochran LB 81.0 tot (def)
3. Caleb Spann DB 54.0 tot (def)
4. Langston Lewis WR 596 yds (rec)
5. Kalen Carroll DB 49.0 tot (def)

NFL Draft Pipeline

2022–2025

Developing

4 picks last 5 cycles. Pipeline emerging.

4 picks · 0 R1
#57 Luke Goedeke Offensive Tackle · 2022 · Tampa Bay
#77 Bernhard Raimann Offensive Tackle · 2022 · Indianapolis
#229 Donte Kent Cornerback · 2025 · Pittsburgh

Moment of the Year · Central Michigan · 2025

Postseason · Lost 7-34 at Northwestern

Week 17 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.

Decisive MarginPostseason

Bowl / Postseason Ledger

Recent postseason (2025): 0-1

Most recent: 2025 — loss 34-7 (away). Last 5 postseason: 0-1.

2025

From the Archive — Central Michigan

2022: Won 31-27 vs Buffalo

In 2022, the program won 31-27 vs Buffalo — a tight home result that left the 4-point margin on the books.

Go Chippewas.