CFB Index
June 22, 2026 · Dead Period · Heritage Window · 2026 Outlook

Ball State

4-8 2025 final

Ball State is the Mid-American program known for the cardinals.

Cardinals country waits.

Record
4-8
win% .333
SP+
-4.6
Bowl Odds
Season closed
Year-over-Year
4 wins
Dead PeriodOffseasonPatientPost-loss — diagnostic
The Long Wait·Offseason

Ball State enters the 2026 season at 4-8.

2025 Record4-8
offseason · quiet
Read the full program story ↓

Offseason

69 days

until kickoff · Sun Aug 30 · 17:00 UTC

Act I

The 2026 Outlook

2026 Preview Thesis 2026 Evidence-validated

Ball State faces a high-volatility season with limited returning talent and heavy roster changes

The team enters 2026 with only 8% of its roster returning and a recruiting rank of #119, while absorbing 24 transfers and losing 18.

  • Roster reloadBall State has only 8% of its roster returning, as indicated by the returning_total_pct value.
Data as of 2026-06-21 · Validated against program evidence

Offseason Pulse · Ball State

Roster · Recruiting · Portal

Recruiting Class

#119 nationally

2025 cycle · 247 composite rating 118.6

Outside the recruiting top 60. Roster gaps must close via portal.

Returning Production

8%

2025 cycle · CFBD weighted

Heavy roster turnover. QB position open.

Talent Composite

#115 nationally

2025 cycle · 247 composite 495.4

Outside the talent top 60. The wins must be earned in development.

Portal Movement

24 in / 18 out

2026 cycle · in 24 / out 18

Portal additions outpace losses; position detail lives in Roster Reload.

Ball State · the story right now 1 storyline developing

What Ball State's offseason is really about

the open questionwhere does it go from here?

this cycle✓ factnew

Ball State enters 2025 rated No. 132 in SP+ (-23.0).

the contextbottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season
why it mattersBall State enters 2025 at No. 132 in SP+ — bottom-quintile returning production and a 4-8 record under first-year coach Mike Uremovich test whether this rebuild can avoid another losing season.
narrative tension · our read

Roster Reload - Ball State

2026 snapshot - 2026-06-21
Returning Production8%Low continuity / heavy reload
Portal Additions24Primary repair: EDGE
Portal Losses18Primary pressure: S
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#119Depth class (#119)
WRin 4 - Jabari Smith Jr.3.50out 3 - Ty Robinson3.50Upgrade
LBin 4 - Jovan Clark3.49out 3 - Caden Johnson3.40Upgrade
CBin 3 - Cedric Franklin II3.30out 3 - Roman Pearson3.50Even
Sin 0out 4 - Michael Gravely Jr.3.49Starter Risk
TEin 2 - Sean Ward3.30out 2 - Kameron Anthony3.60Even
EDGEin 3 - Jared Badie3.50out 0Need Filled

The Pulse on Ball State

Archive · Late Spring · 600 mentions · medium confidence
67
Δ +2.8 vs last wk
600 mentions this week · conversation velocity

What moved it — offseason · last 30 days

June Dead-period quiet — official-visit + heritage window —
Camp Fall camp ~40 days out
"Go Ball State" — Ball State fanbase · recurring line

Five Lenses

What people are saying right now

The broader fanbase5 posts
Says who? If the conferences got a vote I’d say no way it passes, but it’s not like…

CFB · 4d ago

News & campus coverage11 posts
Ball State 2026 WR commit Mark Hanniford hearing from multiple schools - On3

News · 3d ago

Aspiration Ladder

Brief Part III §33.4 · Ball State

Bowl eligibility (6 wins)—

The baseline goal for a program at this stage.

Beat a rival—

The narrative win the season is graded by.

Statement year—

Exceed last season by 2+ wins.

Conference championshipLocked—

Out of reach without a transformative year.

Ball State · Next-Season Outcome Band

Floor / Base / Ceiling

floor3-9No postseason.
base5-7No postseason.
ceiling8-5Bowl game.

Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.

Market outlook

Season expectations

Win total3 booksO/U 3.5
CFP championship#136 in field+100000
MAC title#11 in market+3500

Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-06-22

Recruiting Reload - Top 3 commits

2026 class
★★★☆☆
Mason Atkins
QB · Aurora, IL
#1687 national
★★★☆☆
Mark Hanniford
WR · Boca Raton, FL
#1750 national
★★★☆☆
Stone Perkins
ATH · Louisville, KY
#1924 national

Recruiting Footprint · 2026

10
IL · 4IN · 4FL · 1KY · 1

IL leads the 2026 class with 4 commits. National footprint reaching 4 states.

Where they recruit · 2023-2026

58 signees across 12 states, 2023-2026. IN leads the pull.

MEVTNHWAIDMTNDMNWIMINYMAORNVWYSDIAILINOHPANJCTCAUTCONEMOKYWVVAMDDERIAZNMKSARTNNCSCDCOKLAMSALGAAKHITXFL
Source CFB Index · player_recruiting_profiles
Act II

Who We Are

Program Prestige · Ball State

Mid-Major Contender

Mid-Major Contender — G5 force with occasional national attention.

T1Regional
T2Mid-Major
T3Power
T4National
T5Blue Blood
T6Dynasty
T7All-Time

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank Ball State

CFB Index

#138

-4.6

SP+

#132

-23.0

FPI

#132

-19.4

Elo

#133

1010

SRS

#132

-19.1

The national models put Ball State between 132nd and 133rd nationally — the CFB Index is more skeptical, at 138th.

National rank of 136 FBS teams · 2025 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Index ranked by rating.

Most Similar Programs · Ball State

Reads Like

MarylandAdjacent tierUConnAdjacent tierVanderbiltAdjacent tier

Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.

Coaching Era · Ball State

Mike Uremovich

Mike Uremovich took over from Mike Neu for the 2025 season.

Era Mike Uremovich · 2025–presentPrev: Mike Neu (2020–2024)
1 year · era

Fanbase Health Index · Ball State · medium confidence

Growing (60)

DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 4-8 (33% win rate)48
Volume — 127 effective signal-N72

Home-Field Advantage · Ball State · 2018-present

Elite

58% home win rate vs 25% on the road. margin runs +16.2 better at home.

Home18-13Away9-26

Chronicle Visuals

5 deterministic SVG · provenance-gated
2026 preview

A heavy-turnover 2025: 8% returning (below average), with the offense the biggest question.

A heavy-turnover 2025: 8% returning (below average), with the offense the biggest question.Offense is the stress point for 2025. Source: CFB Index — returning production vs the FBS average (dashed = league avg) · 2025 · high confidenceRETURNING PRODUCTION · 2025A heavy-turnover 2025: 8% returning(below average), with the offense thebiggest question.QB roomQB room: 0% returning0%OffenseOffense: 8% returning8%OverallOverall: 8% returning8%▸ Offense is the stress point for 2025.Source: CFB Index — returning production vs the FBS average(dashed = league avg) · 2025 · high confidence
model-confident
2026 preview

The portal upgraded the QB room but opened a hole at S.

The portal upgraded the QB room but opened a hole at S.Net +6 · upgraded QB · hole at S. Source: CFB Index — transfer portal in/out by position (count) · 2026 · 24 in / 18 out · high confidenceTRANSFER PORTAL · 2026The portal upgraded the QB room butopened a hole at S.OUTINCBCB: 3 out3CB: 3 in3net 0DLDL: 1 out1DL: 2 in2net +1EDGEEDGE: 3 in3net +3IOLIOL: 1 out1IOL: 2 in2net +1LBLB: 3 out3LB: 4 in4net +1OTOT: 1 in1net +1QBQB: 2 in2net +2RBRB: 1 out1RB: 1 in1net 0SS: 4 out4net -4TETE: 2 out2TE: 2 in2net 0WRWR: 3 out3WR: 4 in4net +1▸ Net +6 · upgraded QB · hole at S.Source: CFB Index — transfer portal in/out by position(count) · 2026 · 24 in / 18 out · high confidence
model-confident
2026 preview

Ball State converts recruit talent into draft picks better than its class rank suggests.

Ball State converts recruit talent into draft picks better than its class rank suggests.Talent 13th, draft yield 35th among 132 programs. Source: CFB Index — recruit talent vs draft-pick yield · 2025 · 132 programs · high confidenceBALL STATE · TALENT YIELDBall State converts recruit talent intodraft picks better than its class ranksuggests.Recruit talent (percentile) →Draft yield (percentile) →Georgia — 99 / 99 pctileBaylor — 73 / 35 pctileWashington State — 28 / 64 pctileCentral Michigan — 8 / 43 pctileOld Dominion — 7 / 51 pctileBall State — 13 / 35 pctileBall StateWashington StateOld DominionCentral MichiganGeorgiaBaylor▸ Talent 13th, draft yield 35th among 132 programs.Source: CFB Index — recruit talent vs draft-pick yield ·2025 · 132 programs · high confidence
model-confident
2024 season

A flat 2024 — the team rarely swung far in either direction.

A flat 2024 — the team rarely swung far in either direction.rarely moved far in either direction all year. Source: CFB Index — per-game power-rating swings · 2024 · 6 games · medium confidenceTHE WEEK-TO-WEEK RIDE · 2024A flat 2024 — the team rarely swung farin either direction.Game 1: +0.55 power swingGame 2: +0.55 power swingGame 3: +0.46 power swingGame 4: +0.46 power swingGame 5: -1.00 power swingGame 6: -1.00 power swing-1.0▲ stock-up week▼ stock-down week▸ rarely moved far in either direction all year.Source: CFB Index — per-game power-rating swings · 2024 · 6games · medium confidence
solid read
2024 season

L 34-37 vs Central Michigan leads the season's top 3 results by combined power and résumé delta.

L 34-37 vs Central Michigan leads the season's top 3 results by combined power and résumé delta.L 34-37 vs Central Michigan is the biggest mover. Source: CFB Index — results ranked by combined power + résumé impact · top 3 games · low confidenceSTATEMENT WINS · TOP 3 RESULTSL 34-37 vs Central Michigan leads theseason's top 3 results by combined powerand résumé delta.L 34-37 vs Central MichiganL 34-37 vs Central Michigan — +0.70 résumé impactL 34-37 vs Central Michigan — +0.70 résumé impact+0.70L 0-62 vs MiamiL 0-62 vs Miami — -0.41 résumé impact-0.41L 7-63 vs James MadisonL 7-63 vs James Madison — -1.15 résumé impact-1.15▸ L 34-37 vs Central Michigan is the biggest mover.Source: CFB Index — results ranked by combined power +résumé impact · top 3 games · low confidence
early signal
How the room reactedreal evidence · tap rooms to explore
FOLLOWING NOW · BALL STATE · SEASON OUTLOOK Confidence

Ball State is near the bottom of the model. The math is the story.

Ball State enters 2025 rated No. 132 in SP+ (-23.0). It is bottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season. SP+ is a tempo-free efficiency model — it describes what the program HAS done. The season is the test of whether it's still true. Preview coverage is split — believers and skeptics are reading the same data differently.

bullish — but with real dissent where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics1 doubt take
Believers2 bull takes
💬 fans: 31% volume · mostly neutral
CFB INDEX READ · our read
Ball State enters 2025 at No. 132 in SP+ — bottom-quintile returning production and a 4-8 record under first-year coach Mike Uremovich test whether this rebuild can avoid another losing season.
Source of record: Ball State enters 2025 rated No. 132 in SP+ (-23.0) — bottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season.

Every line is a door. Evidence opens in place — verbatim outlet headlines for news sources, verbatim fan text attributed to the community not the individual (never a username). Works with JavaScript off.

HOW EACH ROOM IS REACTING — TAP TO EXPAND
The Believers bullishThe Skeptics dissentThe Boards loud
📣THE BELIEVERS2 bullish/recruiting items — the case it's working.›

The optimistic read: recruiting wins, momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.

“Ball State 2026 WR commit Mark Hanniford hearing from multiple schools”
On3 · 2026-06-19 · read ↗
“Ohio State Lands Crystal Ball Predictions for 2027 5-Star Defensive Lineman”
Sports Illustrated · 2026-06-15 · read ↗
“'The power of football' on display at annual Team Faulk Football Camp”
The Star Press · 2026-06-20 · read ↗
🧐THE SKEPTICS“Ranking Ohio State football's 2026 games from easiest to toughes” — the real counter.›

The analytical counter: rankings, results and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.

“Ranking Ohio State football's 2026 games from easiest to toughest”
The Columbus Dispatch · 2026-06-16 · read ↗
💬THE BOARDS31% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in. Board mood this week: mostly neutral.›

This event was in 20 of 64 board posts (31%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.

"Hi everybody! I’m transferring to ball state this fall after graduating from community college. From my last college, I was trained in developing and printing 35mm black and white "
r/BallState fan
"Hey guys! I was wondering if anybody who lived in Anthony would be willing to dm me and show pics of how they decorated! I’m very excited to be living there, but it’s hard to imagi"
r/BallState fan

Board health this week (21 posts): 33% positive · 48% neutral · 19% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.

Act III

Last Season Reviewed

2025 season · tap to expand

Recent Form · last 10 games

Cold

One of five. The film room is busy this week.

Streak L3Last 5 · 1-4Last 10 · 4-6

Season Standing · 2025 · 4-8

FBS sub-.500

Ball State: Below .500 in FBS play. The rebuild bar.

Sub-FBSBuildingBowlRankedContenderPlayoff

Mid-American Standing · 2025

10th in the Mid-American

Ball State is 10th of 13 in the Mid-American at 4-8. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.

#ProgramRecord
1Western Michigan10-4
2Ohio9-4
3Toledo8-5
4Sacramento State7-5
5Central Michigan7-6
6Miami (OH)7-7
7Akron5-7
8Buffalo5-7
9Kent State5-7
10Ball State4-8
11Bowling Green4-8
12Eastern Michigan4-8
13Massachusetts0-12

Schedule Strength · Ball State · 2025

Balanced

Average opponent win rate 48% across 12 finalized games. 1 AP top-25 opponent played (Auburn).

Opp Win %0.486
Top-251
Top-100

Top Players · 2025

2025
1. Alfred Chea LB 59.0 tot (def)
2. Nathan Voorhis DE 49.0 tot (def)
3. Michael Gravely Jr. DB 44.0 tot (def)
4. Joey Stemler LB 44.0 tot (def)
5. Jack Beebe LB 41.0 tot (def)

NFL Draft Pipeline

2023–2023

Thin

1 picks last 5 cycles. Roster development still maturing.

1 picks · 0 R1
#250 Nic Jones Cornerback · 2023 · Kansas City

Moment of the Year · Ball State · 2025

Won 42-28 vs Akron

Week 8 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.

Decisive Margin

From the Archive — Ball State

2022: Won 27-20 at Kent State

In 2022, the program won 27-20 at Kent State — a tight road result that left the 7-point margin on the books.

Go Cardinals.