CFB Index
June 22, 2026 · Dead Period · Heritage Window · 2026 Outlook

Eastern Michigan

4-8 2025 final

Eastern Michigan is the Mid-American program known for the eagles.

The Eagles circle the field.

Record
4-8
win% .333
SP+
-1.0
Bowl Odds
Season closed
Year-over-Year
4 wins
Dead PeriodOffseasonPatientPost-loss — reckoning
The Long Wait·Offseason

Eastern Michigan enters the 2026 season at 4-8.

2025 Record4-8
offseason · quiet
Read the full program story ↓

Offseason

69 days

until kickoff · Sun Aug 30 · 17:00 UTC

Act I

The 2026 Outlook

2026 Preview Thesis 2026 Evidence-validated

Eastern Michigan faces significant roster turnover but has a path to bowl eligibility

With only 25% of returning players and a net portal exporter status, Eastern Michigan must rely on transfers and depth class (#97) to compete. The team projects a base scenario of 7-6 with a bowl game appearance.

  • Roster reloadEastern Michigan has only 25% returning players, indicating heavy roster turnover.
  • ScheduleThe team's base scenario projects a 7-6 record with bowl eligibility.
Data as of 2026-06-21 · Validated against program evidence

Offseason Pulse · Eastern Michigan

Roster · Recruiting · Portal

Recruiting Class

#97 nationally

2025 cycle · 247 composite rating 151.8

Outside the recruiting top 60. Roster gaps must close via portal.

Returning Production

25%

2025 cycle · CFBD weighted

Heavy roster turnover. QB position open.

Talent Composite

#94 nationally

2025 cycle · 247 composite 572.9

Outside the talent top 60. The wins must be earned in development.

Portal Movement

11 in / 26 out

2026 cycle · in 11 / out 26

Portal losses outpace additions; position detail lives in Roster Reload.

Eastern Michigan · the story right now 1 storyline developing

What Eastern Michigan's offseason is really about

the open questionwhere does it go from here?

this cycle✓ factnew

Eastern Michigan enters 2025 rated No. 119 in SP+ (-14.7).

why it mattersEastern Michigan enters 2025 at No. 119 in SP+ — Chris Creighton's sixth season opens with a losing record and middling talent rank, raising the question of structural progress.
narrative tension · our read

The Offseason Ledger · Eastern Michigan

1 verified move · portal · recruiting · staff
  1. Portal

    QB Brogan McCaughey transfer commits from Yale

    Ivy passer to MAC — McCaughey is a graduate transfer with starts banked, real competition arm.

    Feb 20CFBD /player/portal

Roster Reload - Eastern Michigan

2026 snapshot - 2026-06-21
Returning Production25%Low continuity / heavy reload
Portal Additions11Primary repair: OT
Portal Losses26Primary pressure: CB
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#97Depth class (#97)
OTin 4 - Tyler Brumfield3.60out 3 - Mack Indestad3.50Upgrade
CBin 0out 5 - James Monds III3.49Starter Risk
IOLin 1 - Cole Dellinger3.40out 4 - Terrance Saunders3.50Starter Risk
LBin 0out 4 - Andrew Marshall3.50Starter Risk
EDGEin 0out 4 - Messiah Blair3.50Starter Risk
RBin 2 - Braydon Bennett3.40out 2 - James Jointer Jr.3.49Even

The Pulse on Eastern Michigan

Quiet · dead period heritage · signal ramps back in camp
—
The Eagles circle the field.

What moved it — offseason · last 30 days

June Dead-period quiet — official-visit + heritage window —
Camp Fall camp ~40 days out
"Go Eagles." — Eastern Michigan fanbase · recurring line
6 mentions · awaiting signal

Aspiration Ladder

Brief Part III §33.4 · Eastern Michigan

Bowl eligibility (6 wins)—

The baseline goal for a program at this stage.

Beat a rival—

The narrative win the season is graded by.

Statement year—

Exceed last season by 2+ wins.

Conference championshipLocked—

Out of reach without a transformative year.

Eastern Michigan · Next-Season Outcome Band

Floor / Base / Ceiling

floor4-8No postseason.
base7-6Bowl game.
ceiling9-4Bowl game.

Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.

Market outlook

Season expectations

Win total3 booksO/U 5.5
CFP championship#124 in field+100000
MAC title#6 in market+980

Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-06-22

Recruiting Reload - Top 3 commits

2026 class
★★★☆☆
RJ Alphonse
EDGE · Hollywood, FL
#1422 national
★★★☆☆
Nazir Jones-Davis
RB · Harrisburg, PA
#1750 national
★★★☆☆
Fa'Rel Carter
CB · Indianapolis, IN
#1750 national

Recruiting Footprint · 2026

24
FL · 8MI · 4GA · 3IN · 3OH · 3IL · 1NJ · 1PA · 1

FL leads the 2026 class with 8 commits. National footprint reaching 8 states.

Where they recruit · 2023-2026

79 signees across 19 states, 2023-2026. FL leads the pull.

MEVTNHWAIDMTNDMNWIMINYMAORNVWYSDIAILINOHPANJCTCAUTCONEMOKYWVVAMDDERIAZNMKSARTNNCSCDCOKLAMSALGAAKHITXFL
Source CFB Index · player_recruiting_profiles
Act II

Who We Are

Program Prestige · Eastern Michigan

Mid-Major Contender

Mid-Major Contender — G5 force with occasional national attention.

T1Regional
T2Mid-Major
T3Power
T4National
T5Blue Blood
T6Dynasty
T7All-Time

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank Eastern Michigan

CFB Index

#81

-1.0

SP+

#119

-14.7

FPI

#118

-13.5

Elo

#110

1239

SRS

#127

-16.2

The national models put Eastern Michigan between 110th and 127th nationally — the CFB Index is higher on them than any of these models, at 81st.

National rank of 136 FBS teams · 2025 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Index ranked by rating.

Most Similar Programs · Eastern Michigan

Reads Like

MarylandAdjacent tierUConnAdjacent tierVanderbiltAdjacent tier

Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.

Coaching Era · Eastern Michigan

Chris Creighton

Chris Creighton has held the program for 6 seasons — the era is established.

Era Chris Creighton · 2020–present
6 years · era

Fanbase Health Index · Eastern Michigan · medium confidence

Stable (47)

DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 4-8 (33% win rate)48
Volume — 5 effective signal-N45

Home-Field Advantage · Eastern Michigan · 2018-present

Above-Average

55% home win rate vs 39% on the road. margin runs +3.4 better at home.

Home19-15Away13-20

Chronicle Visuals

5 deterministic SVG · provenance-gated
2026 preview

A heavy-turnover 2025: 25% returning (below average), with the qb room the biggest question.

A heavy-turnover 2025: 25% returning (below average), with the qb room the biggest question.QB room is the stress point for 2025. Source: CFB Index — returning production vs the FBS average (dashed = league avg) · 2025 · high confidenceRETURNING PRODUCTION · 2025A heavy-turnover 2025: 25% returning(below average), with the qb room thebiggest question.QB roomQB room: 4% returning4%OffenseOffense: 25% returning25%OverallOverall: 25% returning25%▸ QB room is the stress point for 2025.Source: CFB Index — returning production vs the FBS average(dashed = league avg) · 2025 · high confidence
model-confident
2026 preview

The portal upgraded the K room but opened a hole at CB.

The portal upgraded the K room but opened a hole at CB.Net -15 · upgraded K · hole at CB. Source: CFB Index — transfer portal in/out by position (count) · 2026 · 11 in / 26 out · high confidenceTRANSFER PORTAL · 2026The portal upgraded the K room butopened a hole at CB.OUTINCBCB: 5 out5net -5DLDL: 1 out1DL: 2 in2net +1EDGEEDGE: 4 out4net -4IOLIOL: 4 out4IOL: 1 in1net -3KK: 1 in1net +1LBLB: 4 out4net -4OTOT: 3 out3OT: 4 in4net +1QBQB: 1 in1net +1RBRB: 2 out2RB: 2 in2net 0TETE: 2 out2net -2WRWR: 1 out1net -1▸ Net -15 · upgraded K · hole at CB.Source: CFB Index — transfer portal in/out by position(count) · 2026 · 11 in / 26 out · high confidence
model-confident
2026 preview

Eastern Michigan sits where recruit talent and draft yield largely match.

Eastern Michigan sits where recruit talent and draft yield largely match.Talent 29th, draft yield 43th among 132 programs. Source: CFB Index — recruit talent vs draft-pick yield · 2025 · 132 programs · high confidenceEASTERN MICHIGAN · TALENT YIELDEastern Michigan sits where recruittalent and draft yield largely match.Recruit talent (percentile) →Draft yield (percentile) →Georgia — 99 / 99 pctileBaylor — 73 / 35 pctileWashington State — 28 / 64 pctileCentral Michigan — 8 / 43 pctileOld Dominion — 7 / 51 pctileEastern Michigan — 29 / 43 pctileEastern MichiganWashington StateOld DominionCentral MichiganGeorgiaBaylor▸ Talent 29th, draft yield 43th among 132 programs.Source: CFB Index — recruit talent vs draft-pick yield ·2025 · 132 programs · high confidence
model-confident
2024 season

A steady 2024 climb — few wild weeks, and a quietly rising floor.

A steady 2024 climb — few wild weeks, and a quietly rising floor.steady week to week, quietly getting better. Source: CFB Index — per-game power-rating swings · 2024 · 10 games · high confidenceTHE WEEK-TO-WEEK RIDE · 2024A steady 2024 climb — few wild weeks,and a quietly rising floor.Game 1: +0.29 power swingGame 2: +0.29 power swingGame 3: -0.21 power swingGame 4: -0.21 power swingGame 5: -0.24 power swingGame 6: -0.24 power swingGame 7: +0.27 power swingGame 8: +0.27 power swingGame 9: +1.14 power swingGame 10: +1.14 power swing+1.1▲ stock-up week▼ stock-down week▸ steady week to week, quietly getting better.Source: CFB Index — per-game power-rating swings · 2024 · 10games · high confidence
model-confident
2024 season

W 52-33 vs Kent State leads the season's top 5 results by combined power and résumé delta.

W 52-33 vs Kent State leads the season's top 5 results by combined power and résumé delta.W 52-33 vs Kent State is the biggest mover. Source: CFB Index — results ranked by combined power + résumé impact · top 5 games · medium confidenceSTATEMENT WINS · TOP 5 RESULTSW 52-33 vs Kent State leads the season'stop 5 results by combined power andrésumé delta.W 52-33 vs Kent StateW 52-33 vs Kent State — +1.54 résumé impactW 52-33 vs Kent State — +1.54 résumé impact+1.54W 36-0 vs St. Francis (PA)W 36-0 vs St. Francis (PA) — +0.48 résumé impact+0.48W 28-14 vs MassachusettsW 28-14 vs Massachusetts — +0.29 résumé impact+0.29W 37-34 vs Jacksonville StateW 37-34 vs Jacksonville State — +0.15 résumé impact+0.15L 9-30 vs WashingtonL 9-30 vs Washington — -2.14 résumé impact-2.14▸ W 52-33 vs Kent State is the biggest mover.Source: CFB Index — results ranked by combined power +résumé impact · top 5 games · medium confidence
solid read
How the room reactedreal evidence · tap rooms to explore
FOLLOWING NOW · EASTERN MICHIGAN · SEASON OUTLOOK Confidence

Eastern Michigan enters the season in the middle of the pack. That's the whole tension.

Eastern Michigan enters 2025 rated No. 119 in SP+ (-14.7). SP+ is a tempo-free efficiency model — it describes what the program HAS done. The season is the test of whether it's still true. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.

near-unanimous belief where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers5 bull takes
CFB INDEX READ · our read
Eastern Michigan enters 2025 at No. 119 in SP+ — Chris Creighton's sixth season opens with a losing record and middling talent rank, raising the question of structural progress.
Source of record: Eastern Michigan enters 2025 rated No. 119 in SP+ (-14.7).

Every line is a door. Evidence opens in place — verbatim outlet headlines for news sources, verbatim fan text attributed to the community not the individual (never a username). Works with JavaScript off.

HOW EACH ROOM IS REACTING — TAP TO EXPAND
The Believers bullishThe Skeptics no dissent
📣THE BELIEVERS5 bullish/recruiting items — the case it's working.›

The optimistic read: recruiting wins, momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.

“Eastern Rowing Lands 14 on Academic All-MAC List”
Eastern Michigan University Athletics · 2026-06-16 · read ↗
“Eastern Michigan 2027 Football Commits in Pennsylvania”
247Sports · 2026-06-11 · read ↗
“Eastern Michigan 2027 Football Commits in Illinois”
247Sports · 2026-06-10 · read ↗
🧐THE SKEPTICSNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›

The analytical counter: rankings, results and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.

Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.

Act III

Last Season Reviewed

2025 season · tap to expand

Recent Form · last 10 games

Cooling

Two of five. Schedule has caught up.

Streak L1Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 4-6

Season Standing · 2025 · 4-8

FBS sub-.500

Eastern Michigan: Below .500 in FBS play. The rebuild bar.

Sub-FBSBuildingBowlRankedContenderPlayoff

Mid-American Standing · 2025

12th in the Mid-American

Eastern Michigan is 12th of 13 in the Mid-American at 4-8. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.

#ProgramRecord
1Western Michigan10-4
2Ohio9-4
3Toledo8-5
4Sacramento State7-5
5Central Michigan7-6
6Miami (OH)7-7
7Akron5-7
8Buffalo5-7
9Kent State5-7
10Ball State4-8
11Bowling Green4-8
12Eastern Michigan4-8
13Massachusetts0-12

Schedule Strength · Eastern Michigan · 2025

Balanced

Average opponent win rate 47% across 12 finalized games. No top-25 opponents, but mid-tier slate kept the schedule honest.

Opp Win %0.475
Top-250
Top-100

Top Players · 2025

2025
1. Bryce Llewellyn DB 103 tot (def)
2. Barry Manning DB 75.0 tot (def)
3. Noah Kim QB 2,817 yds (pass)
4. Dontae McMillan RB 1,014 yds (rush)
5. Andrew Marshall LB 61.0 tot (def)

NFL Draft Pipeline

2023–2023

Thin

2 picks last 5 cycles. Roster development still maturing.

2 picks · 0 R1
#117 Sidy Sow Offensive Guard · 2023 · New England
#196 Jose Ramirez Outside Linebacker · 2023 · Tampa Bay

Moment of the Year · Eastern Michigan · 2025

Won 24-9 at Ball State

Week 12 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.

Decisive Margin

Bowl / Postseason Ledger

Recent postseason (2022-2023): 1-1

Most recent: 2023 — loss 10-59 (home). Last 5 postseason: 1-1.

20232022

From the Archive — Eastern Michigan

Postseason 2022: Won 41-27 at San José State

In 2022, the program won 41-27 at San José State in the postseason — a comfortable road result that left the 14-point margin on the books.

Eagles take flight tonight.