The Heisman Race

That team is Miami, whose season-opening win over the Irish last fall became the exact tiebreaker the committee used to keep a 10-2 Notre Dame home. The schedule-makers put the rematch first. You couldn't script it crueler.

Here's what the box score buries: no returning quarterback in the country was blitzed more than Carr -- 36.7% of his dropbacks -- because defenses saw a first-year starter and came hunting. It backfired. When teams didn't blitz, nobody in America averaged more per dropback (9.4). He finished fifth nationally in efficiency and a Manning Award finalist as a freshman.

The bloodline is the subplot you'll hear all year: Carr was raised in Saline, Michigan -- grandson of Lloyd Carr, the man who won Michigan's last title in 1997 -- and he chose Notre Dame over the Wolverines. Now he carries the title hopes of the program Ann Arbor loves to hate.

The forward question isn't the arm; it's the margin. The independent path leaves almost none -- win at Miami and BYU and an 87%-likely Playoff bid is his; slip once and the snub debate reopens. Carr says his Year 2 leap is leadership and footwork, not numbers. The Irish haven't won it all since 1988. If the sophomore who shrugged off the blitz becomes the closer this program's been missing, the story stops being "good Notre Dame QB" and becomes "the one who ended the drought."

On tape Carr plays the position like a chess clock -- pre-snap he's already three moves ahead, and the ball is gone the instant his back foot lands. The surprise is where it's going: he's not a checkdown surgeon, he's a downfield one. His average throw traveled nearly fifteen yards in the air -- 94th-percentile depth -- and he still finished 92nd percentile in success rate and 96th in explosive passes. He takes shots, and he connects. What he doesn't do is run; thirty-three yards all season says he'd rather solve the problem than flee it. The edge is the flip side of the gift: when the first read's gone and the pocket caves, the anticipation that makes him lethal on schedule has less to lean on -- exactly the off-platform footwork he chased all offseason. In a 2026 where Notre Dame needs him to carry a title run, the question was never the deep ball; it's the third-and-8 when the script's gone.

UHND -- Carr QB1 2026 Heisman push · Pro Football Network -- why ND missed the Playoff · Observer -- 10 straight, no Playoff · CBS -- ND 2026 Playoff/schedule

The grandson of Archie, nephew of Peyton and Eli, was the most-hyped recruit of his generation before he'd thrown a college pass -- and he sat, behind Quinn Ewers, while the legend grew on zero evidence. His 2025 debut as the starter was supposed to settle it; for five games it only complicated it. He averaged an interception a game, the offense sputtered, and the takes turned. Then the season flipped: over the final eight games he turned the ball over twice, and across his last six he was responsible for 20 touchdowns through the air, on the ground, and even on a catch.

That late surge is why he enters 2026 as a betting co-favorite -- by some books the favorite -- and why one analyst flatly said there's 'a 0% chance' he isn't in New York for the ceremony. The bar isn't a good season; it's a coronation. A Manning has never won a Heisman; Texas has produced only two. He'd close both gaps at once.

The forward question isn't talent -- the arm was never in doubt. It's whether the second half of 2025 was the real Arch and the first half was the learning curve, or the other way around. In an SEC where Texas is built to win it all, a full season at his ceiling makes him the story of the sport. Anything less reopens the only debate that's ever followed him: was the hype ever real?

On tape Manning is a big-bodied gunslinger who plays the position downhill -- a live arm that pushes it deep (88th-percentile average depth) and the juice to run for eight scores. But the 2025 tape is the rawness as much as the upside: he graded bottom-fifth in completion and ninth percentile in success rate, throwing his share of picks even as the flashes -- the explosive shots, a top-quarter touchdown rate -- hinted at the ceiling. The lightbulb came late: an interception a game through five weeks, then two turnovers across the final eight. That arc is the whole scouting report -- the tools are loud and the consistency is the project. On schedule, Sarkisian's pro-style attack has a weapon with no ceiling; when he forces it, the efficiency cratered. 2026 is about turning the back-half flashes into the baseline -- making the rare reps the every-down ones.

SI -- Arch Manning steps into the 2026 Heisman spotlight · CBS -- Manning 100% healthy, Heisman hype builds for 2026 · On3 -- Manning and the 2026 Heisman

Chambliss is the most improbable star in the sport. He won a national championship at Division II Ferris State, entered the portal in April 2025, and arrived at Ole Miss as a backup after spring ball had already ended. Then the starter got hurt at Kentucky, Chambliss stepped in, and a fifth-year unknown took the Rebels to the College Football Playoff quarterfinals and into the Heisman conversation, finishing eighth.

That was supposed to be the end -- fifth year, eligibility spent. Chambliss petitioned the NCAA for a sixth on medical grounds, was denied, sued, and won a preliminary injunction; the state's Supreme Court turned away the NCAA's appeal. So he's back, on borrowed-and-litigated time -- and for a new boss, after Lane Kiffin left for LSU and Ole Miss handed the program to Pete Golding.

The forward stakes are pure proof. A new staff, a target on his back, and one season to answer the only question a story this strange invites: was it real? If the Division II kid does it twice, in the SEC, the fairy tale becomes a resume.

On tape Chambliss plays quarterback like a man who learned it on improvisation -- a dual-threat who extends plays and hunts the explosive -- and the numbers under the fairy tale are real: a 98th-percentile average depth of target (he pushes it downfield as much as anyone in the country), 90th-percentile efficiency, a near-nonexistent interception rate, plus the legs for 80th-percentile rushing success. He chases big plays and rarely gives it back, a rare combination. His game is feel and creativity more than textbook timing; he's at his best when the play breaks. That's also the open question: how a more disciplined SEC defense -- and a brand-new Ole Miss staff under Pete Golding -- asks him to operate within structure rather than around it. 2026 is a fit test as much as a talent one: marry the off-script magic to a real system and the fairy tale gets a sequel.

Mississippi Today -- Chambliss ready to recharge as Ole Miss' top QB · ESPN -- Chambliss faces complex process to get 6th year · The Dispatch -- Chambliss always had confidence he'd be Ole Miss' QB in 2026

His 2025 at Duke was a breakout in full: an ACC-best 3,973 passing yards, 34 touchdowns against only six interceptions, a 66.8 completion percentage, second-team All-ACC, ACC Newcomer of the Year and a Davey O'Brien semifinal nod -- and a surprise conference title. Miami made him the headline of its offseason, the top-dollar portal swing meant to replace its departed quarterback. The fit is the story: a program fresh off a Playoff near-miss adds a passer who already does the hardest thing well -- protect the ball while pushing the offense. The forward stakes are a championship window. Miami doesn't need Mensah to be a revelation; it needs him to be exactly what he was at Duke, on a bigger stage. Do that, and the Hurricanes are a Playoff team and he's a 2027 draft riser.

On tape Mensah is a pure pocket passer who wins on efficiency and ball security, and the data is glowing. Our play-by-play grades his EPA per dropback in the 92nd percentile and his passing success rate in the 95th, and the interception avoidance is elite -- an 85th-percentile (very low) pick rate that matches his real 34-to-6 ratio. He's accurate (91st-percentile completion) and willing to push it (94th-percentile explosive-pass rate at a healthy depth of target), the rare combination of careful and aggressive. There's no exotic running element here; the value is in the operation -- decisive, accurate, turnover-averse. He's the kind of quarterback who doesn't beat himself, and on a roster this talented, that's exactly the profile a Playoff run wants.

ESPN -- Mensah, Duke settle dispute; QB eyes Miami transfer · CBS Sports -- Darian Mensah Miami transfer

Most quarterbacks with Moore's draft stock are gone. He left it on the table. After a 13-2 season -- 71.8% completions, 3,565 yards, 30 touchdowns -- that ended in a 56-22 Playoff semifinal humbling by Indiana, the projected first-rounder turned down the draft and returned to Eugene. His reasons were unusually candid: only 20 career starts across stops at UCLA and Oregon, a sense he 'wasn't prepared yet,' and a title that got away.

It's a bet on himself in the most public way possible -- and it reshaped the sport's offseason. His return convinced the Ducks' five-star transfer, Dylan Raiola, that 2026 would be a redshirt year in the wings.

So the forward stakes cut two ways. For Oregon, Moore is a Playoff-tested starter with unfinished business and a roster built to contend. For Moore personally, it's a referendum: a season to prove the extra year was wisdom, not hesitation -- and to make sure the last image of his Oregon career isn't a 34-point semifinal loss.

On tape Moore is a clean, efficient pocket passer, and the metrics are emphatic about it: 97th percentile in efficiency, 98th in both explosive-pass rate and touchdown rate, with a sack rate in the top tenth -- he gets it out, he hits the big one, he finishes drives. What the resume lacks isn't production, it's volume: just 20 career starts across UCLA and Oregon, the real reason a projected top-five pick came back. The blemish the tape keeps is the stage -- a 56-22 semifinal where the moment swallowed the offense whole. So 2026 isn't a skills audit; the numbers passed it. It's an experience-and-poise one: whether a full season as the unquestioned starter turns an elite-efficient college passer into one who carries a playoff night instead of being buried by one.

ESPN -- Moore opts against NFL draft, returning to Oregon · Yahoo -- details on why Moore returned · SI -- what Moore's decision means for Oregon's season

Sayin's first act was a quiet kind of stardom. The former Alabama signee who left when Nick Saban retired found his home at Ohio State, and in his first year starting he completed 77% of his passes -- the best in the nation -- for 3,610 yards and 32 touchdowns. He was the only underclassman invited to New York as a Heisman finalist.

What he didn't get was the trophy or the title. Indiana beat Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship and Fernando Mendoza ran off with the Heisman; the door Sayin had pried open swung shut on the biggest stage. That's the engine of his 2026: fans don't just want him better, they want it finished.

He's built to deliver -- 14 career starts now, the nation's best receiver in Jeremiah Smith, and a roster that opens the year as a national-title favorite. The forward question isn't whether Sayin is good; the nation-leading numbers settled that. It's whether the quiet accuracy becomes a closer's resume -- and whether the next time the season comes down to one game, the result flips.

On tape Sayin's 2025 wasn't just good, it was statistically absurd: he finished in the 99th percentile nationally in completion percentage, in expected points per dropback, and in success rate -- the three numbers that matter most, all at the ceiling. The game looks easy because he plays it fast and clean; he was sacked on barely 1.5% of his dropbacks, top-five in the country at getting the ball out. He isn't a gunslinger pushing it deep -- his average throw was middle-of-the-pack in air yards -- he's a precision machine who takes exactly what the defense gives and never gives it back. The honest questions trail every efficient passer in a loaded offense: at 6-1 he doesn't tower, and with Jeremiah Smith outside, skeptics ask how much is him. In Ohio State's attack he's the conductor -- and 2026 is the year he answers the doubt the only way a quarterback can, by carrying a title himself.

Eleven Warriors -- Sayin named 2025 Heisman finalist · 247Sports -- OSU top players into 2026: No. 2 Sayin · SI -- Sayin finishes 2025 with historic record

Most stars spend their college years arriving. Smith got there as a freshman -- a national championship in 2024, then back-to-back first-team All-American seasons, 1,243 yards and 12 scores in 2025 at six-foot-four with the speed to take any catch the distance. Scouts call him the cleanest receiver evaluation in years and float a number no wideout has reached in three decades: No. 1 overall. The last receiver taken first was Keyshawn Johnson in 1996.

Here's the twist that frames his whole 2026: he can't go yet. He won't be draft-eligible until 2027, so the best player in the sport is locked in for one more college season whether the NFL likes it or not. That turns the usual countdown on its head -- there's no will-he-leave drama, only the question of what a player who's already conquered the college game does for an encore.

The answer the Buckeyes need is a second ring. With Heisman-finalist Julian Sayin throwing to him, Ohio State enters 2026 a national-title favorite, and Smith is the reason defenses lose sleep. For most players the forward stake is a draft slot. For Smith it's legacy: another title, a shot at the most absurd individual season a receiver has ever had, and a year to make the No. 1 conversation unanimous.

On tape Smith is what every coordinator sketches on a napkin and never finds: a 6-foot-4, 223-pound receiver who moves like a man eighty pounds lighter. The production backs it where the box can measure -- 85th-percentile catch rate, 83rd in touchdown rate, an efficient and reliable target -- and the scouting fills the rest: the cleanest receiver evaluation in years, a route runner with the long speed to house any of them. He wins three ways, at the line, at the catch point, and after it, so defenses don't have a leverage to take away; they pick which way they'd rather lose. In Ohio State's vertical attack he's the gravity the whole offense bends around. There's no flaw here to coach up. The only question the tape leaves is how a defense even schemes for him -- and two years running, it can't.

ESPN -- ranking the top receivers in CFB 2026 · AtoZ -- Jeremiah Smith 2027 NFL Draft outlook · Eleven Warriors -- OSU 2027 draft class led by Smith and Sayin

At TCU he was a yardage machine -- 3,472 yards, 29 touchdowns and a 65.9 completion percentage in 2025, on top of a single-season program record in 2024 and more than 9,500 career passing yards. Now he inherits one of the best landing spots in the sport: Indiana, where Curt Cignetti's CFP-tested offense just turned Fernando Mendoza into a Heisman winner. The pairing is the pitch -- a high-volume veteran arm dropped into a system proven to maximize quarterbacks. The forward stakes are a sleeper Heisman run and a Playoff push, gated by the one flaw that has followed him: he's turnover-prone, with 13 interceptions in 2025. If Cignetti's structure tightens his decisions the way it sharpened Mendoza's, Hoover has the arm and the volume to be one of the most productive quarterbacks in the country. The talent was never the question; the giveaways are.

On tape Hoover is a high-volume pocket passer who pushes the ball and lives with the consequences. Our play-by-play likes the production -- a 91st-percentile touchdown rate, an 84th-percentile EPA per dropback, an 80th-percentile explosive-pass rate at a real depth of target (13.8 yards) -- the profile of an aggressive thrower who hunts chunk plays. The accuracy is solid (70th-percentile completion), but the honest mark is the one that's followed him: a 37th-percentile interception avoidance, i.e. a fairly high pick rate, the cost of all that ambition. He's a true gunslinger -- the kind of arm that piles up yards and touchdowns and, on the wrong night, hands a game away. In a system built to discipline that exact profile, the upside is a star.

CBS Sports -- TCU QB Josh Hoover expected to transfer to Indiana · SI -- Hoover commits to Indiana from the TCU portal

In his first year as the starter he threw for 2,894 yards with 24 touchdowns and only five interceptions, ran for 462 more and ten scores, and carried Georgia to a second straight SEC title and the No. 3 Playoff seed. Todd McShay's read was that he "shows up in clutch moments" and has "carried that team while the defense lagged behind" -- high praise for a quarterback most national lists slot as a game-manager. The season ended one round too early, a 39-34 CFP quarterfinal loss to Ole Miss. So the in-state veteran came back for what should be his final college year, now a fringe-Heisman and preseason-award name. The forward stakes are the wall itself: Georgia has the program, the recruiting, and the standard, but Stockton's job is to push it past the quarterfinal it just lost. His ten rushing touchdowns are the weapon defenses underrate -- and 2026 is his bid to turn "does everything right" into a national championship.

On tape Stockton is the operator, not the highlight -- and the numbers say the operating is excellent. He posted a 24-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 2025, the ball-security of a quarterback who knows where to go with it; McShay praised the way he runs the offense and "does everything right" even if "nothing is super flashy." Where he's quietly elite is on the ground near the end zone: ten rushing touchdowns, and our play-by-play grades his rushing-touchdown rate in the 99th percentile -- when Georgia gets close, he's a runner defenses have to account for (he scored five total touchdowns, one with his legs, in the win over Ole Miss). The honest frame is the ceiling debate: CBS and others keep him out of the elite QB tier and light on draft buzz, the "game-manager" label he's spent a year outrunning. He's a tough, low-mistake, dual-threat winner -- the kind of quarterback who doesn't lose you games and, at the goal line, wins them.

247Sports -- Stockton a 2026 Heisman/award candidate · Sports-Reference -- Gunner Stockton 2025 stats · SEC Sports -- Stockton's five TDs edge Ole Miss (rushing score)

Leavitt's college career has been a spike and a setback. As a redshirt freshman in 2024 he was the engine of one of the sport's best turnaround stories, leading Arizona State to a Big 12 championship and a Playoff berth. His 2025 never got going -- a broken stretch of seven games before injuries ended it.

So he hit the portal as its top quarterback and chose the highest-pressure landing spot available: Baton Rouge, as the first starter of Lane Kiffin's LSU. The fit is the story -- a mobile, gunslinging passer handed the keys to an offense built by one of the sport's sharpest play-callers, on a roster expected to return to the Playoff in Year 1.

The forward question is health and fit: a full, healthy season of the 2024 version of Leavitt makes LSU a contender and Kiffin's debut a hit. Anything less, and a new era opens with a familiar question at quarterback.

On tape Leavitt is a dual-threat whose legs are the headline -- and the 2025 numbers say so emphatically. In an injury-shortened season his passing graded middling (28th percentile in completion, 41st in efficiency), but as a runner he was elite: top-3% in the country in rushing success rate and yards per carry, 90th percentile in explosive runs. He's a problem the instant the pocket moves. The fit at LSU is the whole story: Lane Kiffin builds explosive, quarterback-friendly attacks, and Leavitt's mobility adds a dimension Kiffin's recent passers haven't had -- if the arm catches up to the legs. The caveats are health and consistency as a thrower, and 2026 is his first year in a new system. Click early and it's the SEC's most fun offense; if the passing stays middling, defenses make him a runner and find the ceiling.

CBS -- Leavitt expected to sign with LSU for Kiffin · ESPN -- Leavitt signs with LSU after Miami visit · nola.com -- Leavitt transferring to LSU from Arizona State

In 2025 he threw for 3,169 yards and 25 touchdowns, ran for 493 more and six scores, and carried the Aggies to an 11-0 start and their first Playoff berth. He's a true dual-threat -- 6-1, 185, a problem with his legs and a gunslinger with his arm -- and the same aggression that produced the highlights produced 12 interceptions. He bet on himself, announcing his return before the Playoff began. The forward stakes are the tightrope every aggressive young quarterback walks: cut the giveaways without dulling the edge that makes him dangerous. Do that on a roster built for a Playoff run, and he's in the Heisman conversation. For Reed, 2026 is the year the boom-or-bust quarterback decides which one he is.

On tape Reed plays fast and fearless, and the data is a portrait of aggression. As a runner he's genuinely elite -- our play-by-play grades his rushing success rate in the 95th percentile and his EPA per carry in the 86th. As a passer he pushes the ball harder than almost anyone: a 97th-percentile average depth of target, which fuels both an 87th-percentile EPA per dropback and the interceptions (a 72nd-percentile, i.e. fairly high, pick rate). The one number that lags is accuracy -- a 38th-percentile completion rate, the cost of all that downfield ambition. He's a shot-taker who runs like a back, the kind of quarterback who wins games in chunks and loses them in turnovers. The development is the trade: keep the aggression, sharpen the touch.

ESPN -- Marcel Reed announces return to Texas A&M for 2026 · SI -- Reed announces decision to return for 2026

Mateer arrived at Oklahoma as the Washington State transfer nobody in the SEC had film on, and for the first month of 2025 he looked like the most dangerous quarterback in the country. Then came the broken throwing hand against the Tigers, and what followed was 14 touchdowns against 11 interceptions on a compromised release — numbers that understate both how good he'd been and how bad the injury was.

The play-by-play data cuts through the noise. As a runner, Mateer graded at the 91st percentile in rushing touchdown rate and the 89th in success rate on scrambles and designed runs — he converts, he doesn't just accumulate. As a passer, his 81st-percentile explosive pass rate signals genuine downfield ability; the 59th-percentile EPA per dropback is the injury hangover, not the baseline. The 31st-percentile interception rate is the number that has to move in 2026, and it almost certainly will with a healthy hand.

He has returned for his final season with Ben Arbuckle calling plays in Year 2 together. He's on the Maxwell and Heisman preseason watch lists, the weapons around him are better, and the system fits his dual-threat profile as well as any offense in college football. The question isn't whether the talent is there. It's whether the thumb is.

On tape Mateer is a dual-threat whose running game grades elite by every efficiency measure — 91st percentile in rushing touchdown rate (he punches it in), 89th in rushing success rate (he moves the chains), 83rd in EPA per carry (he generates value on the ground). As a passer he lives over the top: an 81st-percentile explosive pass rate says he's willing to attack downfield and has the arm to make it work. The tension is turnover rate — a 31st-percentile interception rate in 2025 that tracked almost exactly with the moment his thumb broke. At 6'0.5", 200 pounds, he's not a bruiser but he's slippery enough to make defenses account for him on every snap, which opens the windows his receivers need.

ESPN — Mateer, Lewis to return for final season · 247Sports — Mateer named to Maxwell Award preseason watch list · SI.com — Oklahoma QB John Mateer announces return for 2026 season

He entered 2025 with No. 1-overall buzz and left it with questions: 2,437 passing yards, 13 touchdowns against eight interceptions, 270 yards and five scores on the ground -- on a team that went 4-8. The tools are undeniable (6-3, 242, the inevitable Cam Newton comparison), and he bet on them, forgoing the 2026 NFL Draft to come back. South Carolina answered by hiring Kendal Briles to install a free-flowing Air Raid built to unlock exactly his kind of athlete from a too-structured scheme. The forward stakes are the leap that defines his career: the legs are already elite, so 2026 is about the throws -- cleaner pocket play, fewer sacks, more consistency. Do that, and the No. 1-pick conversation comes back. Don't, and he's the cautionary tale of a freak who never learned to pass.

On tape Sellers is a problem as a runner and a project as a passer, and the data draws the line hard. On the ground he's elite: our play-by-play grades his rushing success rate in the 91st percentile and his EPA per carry in the 81st -- a 242-pound back playing quarterback. Through the air it's the opposite: an 17th-percentile EPA per dropback, a 22nd-percentile completion rate, and a sack rate in the 2nd percentile -- he holds the ball and takes a brutal number of hits. Scouts (Pro Football Network) see the same film: "wicked arm strength," but he "gets stuck staring down his primary target" and turns throwaways into negatives, "wholly too inconsistent" with accuracy that runs "hot-and-cold." The encouraging note is ball security -- he's "relatively patient" and protective for an elite rushing threat. The whole season is one question: can the passing rise to meet the athlete?

Bleacher Report -- Sellers announces return, forgoes 2026 draft · Pro Football Network -- Sellers draft scouting (Week 13) · Saturday Down South -- Kendal Briles to revive South Carolina's offense

A Miami freshman receiving record, ACC Rookie of the Year, first-team All-ACC, and a Shaun Alexander Freshman of the Year finalist. On3 ranked him the No. 5 player in college football entering 2026; Bleacher Report called him the most explosive player in the sport. And here's the part that should scare the ACC: he won't be NFL-draft-eligible until 2028, so Miami gets two more years of him. He's the centerpiece of a Miami offense rebuilding around him -- a slot-and-space weapon who already commands the attention reserved for veterans. The forward question isn't whether he's good; the freshman record settled that. It's how high the ceiling goes: whether the sophomore leap turns the nation's leading receiver into its best, and whether Miami's offense rises with him. Players this productive this young don't come along often -- the runway is the story.

On tape Toney is a volume machine with juice. He caught 84% of his targets -- 96th percentile -- as a true freshman, the reliability that makes him a quarterback's security blanket, with the after-the-catch burst (72nd-percentile explosive-play rate) to turn a five-yard hitch into a chunk gain. He lives in the slot and in space, where his quickness and vision do the damage; it's why he led the country in catches and why the highlight folder is full of broken tackles. The growth edge is the vertical game -- his yards-per-catch sat mid-pack, so the next tier is stretching the field, not just carving up the underneath. But a true freshman who led the nation in receptions has a floor most receivers never reach.

SI -- Toney Shaun Alexander Freshman of the Year finalist · 247Sports -- Malachi Toney profile/stats · Wikipedia -- Malachi Toney (2025 honors)

Johnson's dual-threat profile is already elite on the ground. Our play-by-play clocks him at the 89th percentile in sack avoidance, the 89th percentile in run success rate, and the 89th percentile in explosive run rate — the full trifecta that tells you he's dangerous with his legs in every sense: elusive in the pocket, decisive at the line, and capable of taking the top off a defense on a read-keep. He averaged 7.7 yards per carry on designed runs (84th percentile), which isn't accident football. That's a quarterback who plays with patience and then punishes hesitation.

The honest part of the 2025 ledger is that the passing numbers didn't match. His success rate through the air (38th percentile) and explosive pass rate (31st percentile) lagged well behind a program with Big 12 championship ambitions. The 6-6 season wasn't all on him — K-State's supporting cast thinned — but it raised the central question for 2026: can a quarterback who is genuinely elite with his legs become a complete enough passer to make defenses defend the whole field?

Under Klein, who ran this same read-option system as a player and helped design the offense that made Johnson a prospect, the answer is plausibly yes. Johnson enters 2026 already sixth on K-State's all-time passing yardage list with a chance to shatter multiple program records. The Maxwell Trophy is within range if the passing efficiency catches up to the rushing brilliance. That is the entire 2026 season, compressed into one sentence.

On tape Johnson is a runner who happens to throw — and on designed carries, that combination is borderline unguardable. The defining cluster is his 89th-percentile sack avoidance, 89th-percentile run success rate, and 89th-percentile explosive run rate: he keeps the pocket clean, converts the first down when he pulls it, and occasionally breaks one for 58 yards (his long in 2025). His 84th-percentile YPC (7.7 yards per carry) confirms this isn't volume padding. Through the air, the picture is more complicated — 38th-percentile pass success rate, 31st-percentile explosive pass rate — pointing to a quarterback whose arm is an asset but whose eyes and timing still have room to grow. In 2026, the gap between his rushing ceiling and his passing floor is the whole story.

SI.com — Avery Johnson in Line to Break Multiple K-State Records in 2026 · On3 — Kansas State QB forecast for 2026 season · Heartland College Sports — PFF Places Kansas State's Avery Johnson Among Top Big 12 QBs · SI.com — Kansas State QB Avery Johnson Says He's Returning for 2026 Season

The saga is the part everyone knows: a spring-2025 standoff over his deal at Tennessee, a skipped practice, a coach "moving on," the portal, and a landing at UCLA inside of a week. The football got buried under it. In 2025 he threw for 1,928 yards with 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions, completed 64 percent, and led the Bruins in rushing with 505 yards -- including a five-touchdown night in a 42-37 upset of seventh-ranked Penn State -- on a team that still finished 3-9. He forwent the 2026 draft to come back under a new staff, betting on himself a second time. The forward stakes are whether the most-scrutinized quarterback in college football can finally turn five-star traits into steady, in-structure production. Get there, and the redemption arc lands and the draft stock follows. Don't, and the saga stays the story.

On tape Iamaleava is a dynamic athlete with a big arm and a production gap, and the data tells the same story the scouts do. As a runner he's elite -- our play-by-play puts his EPA per carry in the 98th percentile and his explosive-run rate in the 97th, top-end quarterback speed on designed runs and scrambles. As a passer he's been ordinary: an 18th-percentile EPA per dropback and an 11th-percentile average depth of target -- a lot of short, safe throws. Draft evaluators (The Draft Network) credit "prototypical" arm talent and high-velocity throws into tight windows, but flag that he "missed too many shots downfield" and can "lock onto his primary read" rather than progress -- best improvising, a work in progress within structure. The frame is the whole career: the tools are real, the in-rhythm passing is the unfinished part.

ESPN -- Iamaleava staying at UCLA under new coach · ESPN -- why Iamaleava left Tennessee for UCLA (the saga) · The Draft Network -- Nico Iamaleava scouting report

He arrived at Florida as a Five-Star Plus+, the No. 3 overall recruit in the 2024 class, and the arm was every bit as advertised. The results weren't: in 2025 he threw for 2,264 yards but 14 interceptions against 16 touchdowns -- at one point leading the nation in picks, including a five-interception night against LSU -- while fighting through shoulder and calf injuries on a team that went 4-8 and fired Billy Napier. So the five-star did what five-stars now do when it breaks: he reset. Lagway transferred to Baylor, where Dave Aranda called him a defining portal win and needs him to convert pedigree into production after a 5-7 season. The forward stakes are the oldest question in the sport, just in a new city: can a quarterback with this much arm talent finally play efficient, ball-secure football? In Waco, 2026 is the leap -- or the latest reminder that recruiting stars don't throw the passes.

On tape Lagway throws with rare arm talent -- the trait that made him the No. 3 recruit in the country -- and the tape is a tug-of-war between that ceiling and his decision-making. The 2025 efficiency was genuinely poor: our play-by-play put his touchdown rate in the 12th percentile and his dropback success rate in the 36th, and the box score agrees (16 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, a five-pick game against LSU that was the most by a Florida quarterback since 1992). Some of that is volatility you can live with from a big arm; some is the kind of turnover habit that sinks seasons. Durability is part of the profile too -- a shoulder injury that limited spring work and a preseason calf strain are on the record. The honest frame: this is a high-variance gunslinger whose floor showed up more than his ceiling in 2025. Baylor is betting the arm is real and the mistakes are coachable. The film to watch in 2026 is simple -- does the interception number come down?

Alligator -- Lagway officially signs with Baylor (Jan 18, 2026) · ESPN -- Florida fires Billy Napier · StatMuse -- DJ Lagway 2025 season stats

He was the No. 5 overall recruit in the 2024 class, and even through a 2025 coaching change at Auburn he put up 708 yards -- 1,306 across his two seasons, third-most by an Auburn receiver through a sophomore year. Then he became the marquee move of the offseason: portal's No. 2 player, off to Texas to be Arch Manning's WR1 in Manning's first full year as the unquestioned starter. At 6-3, 201 he's the catch-radius target a vertical passing game is built to feed, and he joins a room that still returns Ryan Wingo. The forward stakes are the swing of the whole bet: a five-star whose production always hinted at more than it showed now has the quarterback to prove it. For Coleman, 2026 is the breakout that's been waiting on the throw -- and the line between a good college receiver and a top-of-the-2027-board profile.

On tape Coleman wins above the rim. At 6-3, 201 he's a jump-ball and contested-catch specialist -- On3's scouting deep-dive calls him a receiver who "plays above the rim," "climbs the ladder and boxes out defenders," and finishes through contact, a "red-zone nightmare with an exceptional catch radius." Our play-by-play backs the vertical profile: his explosive-catch rate graded in the 72nd percentile, the chunk-play element of a downfield target, even as his overall efficiency (mid-pack yards-per-reception and touchdown rate) marks a player whose production hadn't yet caught up to the talent. The honest edge, per the same report, is hip stiffness that makes him gear down on comebacks and curls -- he's a stack-and-go vertical weapon more than a sudden separator underneath. The bet is simple: elite quarterback play turns 72nd-percentile explosiveness into the highlight reel the five-star ranking always promised.

ESPN -- Cam Coleman commits to Texas (Jan 11, 2026) · On3 -- Deep Dive: Cam Coleman's skill set transforms Texas' offense · CBS Sports -- Coleman commits to Texas / Arch Manning

Jackson's first season was a statement: 1,090 rushing yards at 6.1 a carry, enough to make him the fifth true freshman in Ohio State history to crack 1,000 -- company that includes Robert Smith, Maurice Clarett, JK Dobbins, and TreVeyon Henderson. A teammate, James Peoples, transferred out this offseason in part because Jackson had simply become the guy.

The forward case is about the gap between good and great. He scored just six rushing touchdowns -- low for an Ohio State back -- and may share carries with returning and added depth, so 2026 is about efficiency and finishing, not just volume. On a national-title contender stacked with Sayin and Jeremiah Smith, a back who turns 1,000 quiet yards into 1,400 loud ones is the piece that tips a very good offense into an unstoppable one. The name will always draw the double-take. This is the year he makes people remember him for his own.

On tape Jackson is a one-cut runner with a second gear -- he presses the hole, plants, and is past the second level before the angle closes, which shows up as an 85th-percentile yards-per-carry and a 72nd-percentile explosive-run rate as a true freshman. He's not just a between-the-tackles back; 19 catches keep him on the field on third down, a fit for the way Ohio State spreads you out and runs behind it. The honest gap is the finish: his success rate sat in the 41st percentile and his touchdown rate in the bottom fifteen -- he hits the big one but doesn't yet own the grind or the red zone, which is how a back with his yardage scored only six times. So 2026 isn't about whether he's good; it's whether the explosive freshman becomes the complete one -- the same chunk runs, more of them ending in the end zone.

247Sports -- OSU top-20 into 2026: No. 4 Bo Jackson · Land-Grant Holy Land -- how Bo Jackson can improve in 2026 · SI -- predicting OSU RB room depth chart for 2026

In 2025 he ran for 1,648 yards -- the most by any Power Four back -- and 16 touchdowns, and he did it the hard way: a nation-leading 1,181 yards after contact, the signature of a runner defenses simply can't bring down on first touch. He's a transfer-up story too, a former Sun Belt Freshman of the Year at ULM who carried his production straight into the SEC. Now PFF ranks him the No. 1 returning running back in the sport. The forward stakes are individual hardware and a Missouri offense built around him: in a year without an obvious skill-position Heisman favorite, the Power Four's leading returning rusher is exactly the kind of non-quarterback dark horse who can crash the race. For Hardy, 2026 is the year the best-kept secret becomes the headline.

On tape Hardy is contact balance personified. The defining number is the one he led the nation in -- 1,181 yards after contact -- and our play-by-play backs the whole package: an 87th-percentile rushing-touchdown rate (he finishes), an 81st-percentile EPA per carry, and a 71st-percentile yards-per-carry on genuine workhorse volume. He runs behind his pads, keeps his legs churning through arm tackles, and turns would-be three-yard gains into seven. He's not purely a track-speed home-run hitter -- his explosive-run rate is good, not elite (70th percentile) -- which makes the production all the more impressive: this is yards won by force, not just by speed. He's a downhill, between-the-tackles hammer who gets stronger as the game wears on, the kind of back an offense can lean its whole identity on.

PFF -- top 10 returning running backs for 2026 (Hardy No. 1) · On3 -- Ahmad Hardy transfers to Missouri

He led all of FBS with 307 carries, ran for roughly 1,564 yards, scored 23 or 24 touchdowns, made first-team All-SEC and powered Ole Miss to a College Football Playoff semifinal -- a true bell cow in every sense. When a transfer pursuit came, he re-signed with the Rebels rather than chase it. The forward stakes are continuity through change: with the program made over around him, Lacy is the established constant, the back an offense can hand the ball to thirty times and trust to wear a defense down and finish at the goal line. The question for 2026 isn't whether he can carry the load -- he proved that -- it's whether the offense around him keeps the lanes open. For a runner this durable and this productive in the red zone, that's the difference between a good year and an All-America one.

On tape Lacy is a volume-and-finish back, and the data draws him honestly. The elite trait is scoring: an 88th-percentile rushing-touchdown rate, which fits a back who found the end zone two dozen times and lived at the goal line. The efficiency numbers are more workmanlike -- a 29th-percentile yards-per-carry and a 26th-percentile success rate -- the mark of a runner who took an enormous, grinding workload (a nation-leading 307 carries) rather than a home-run hitter picking his spots. He's also a capable outlet (84th-percentile catch rate). The profile is a downhill, physical, every-down grinder: not the back who breaks a 60-yarder, but the one who gets you the tough four yards on third down and punches it in from the two. Durability and finishing are the whole game, and both are his.

ESPN -- RB Kewan Lacy returning to Ole Miss for 2026 · CBS Sports -- Kewan Lacy to return to Ole Miss

Read that again: the highest-ranked recruit Nebraska ever signed -- son of a 14-year NFL center, the face of Matt Rhule's rebuild -- walked away from 22 career starts and won't take a meaningful snap in 2026. The exits weren't only his: his uncle was let go from Nebraska's staff and his brother decommitted, so the family's Lincoln chapter closed all at once.

What he's really betting on is 2027. Dante Moore's surprise return turned the Oregon move into the same apprenticeship Moore once served behind Dillon Gabriel -- a year to learn the system before the keys are his. Before the broken leg ended his Nebraska season, Raiola was completing 72%. The arm was never the question. The question is patience: whether a five-star raised to be The Guy can spend a year as the understudy -- and whether the gamble reads as brilliant or premature when 2027 finally comes.

On tape Raiola looks the part to an almost cartoonish degree -- a broad, NFL-built frame, a compact over-the-top release, the pre-snap command that drew Patrick Mahomes comparisons before a college snap. The tape, what there is of it, backs the projection: 86th-percentile accuracy and an 18-to-6 touchdown-to-interception line before a broken leg ended his Nebraska season at nine games. The honest tell is the sack rate -- bottom-ten percent -- he holds the ball hunting the throw, for better and worse, the habit a young quarterback either refines into patience or pays for. The catch for 2026 is that there won't be new tape: he's redshirting behind Dante Moore, developing in practice, not on Saturdays. This is a projection year, banking reps for the 2027 audition the whole bet is built around.

B/R -- Moore returns amid Raiola transfer · Yahoo -- Raiola to Oregon, Nebraska stats · SI -- Raiola's biggest surprise at Oregon · CBS -- Raiola commits to Oregon (Moore mulling future)

The Missouri chapter was more complicated than the box score admits. Pribula won the starting job after transferring from Penn State, led the Tigers to a 6-1 mark in games he started and finished, and posted a 174.25 passer rating against Kansas (30-for-39, 334 yards, three touchdowns). The nine interceptions and a late-season ankle injury muted the headline numbers, but the underlying play-by-play was kinder: 87th-percentile completion rate, 84th-percentile pass success rate on 219 tracked dropbacks.

The limiting factor is obvious in the data. Pribula's average depth of target sat in the 26th percentile and his explosive-pass rate in the 22nd, meaning he lives underneath the coverage. That is a workable offensive identity — not a flaw — if Virginia offensive coordinator Des Kitchings builds a system around quick-hitting routes and designed runs. Pribula also brings six rushing touchdowns and 95 carries from 2025, enough mobility to keep defenses honest in a spread-option framework.

The 2026 stake is simple: Virginia needs a starter who can manage an offense without self-destructing, and Pribula is already favored to win that job. A clean pocket and a scheme that plays to his strengths could make him one of the ACC's more efficient distributors. Push him to win vertically, and the 22nd-percentile explosive rate becomes the ceiling in a hurry.

On tape Pribula is a check-down artist masquerading as a dual-threat, and the PBP data makes the case without apology. His 87th-percentile completion rate and 84th-percentile pass success rate are the top-line moat numbers — he processes quickly, gets the ball out, and avoids taking chances he cannot win. The tradeoff shows up in the 26th-percentile average depth of target and 22nd-percentile explosive-pass rate: he is not pushing the ball down the field. The 27th-percentile sack rate (he takes sacks more than most) is the one wrinkle that undercuts the quick-release narrative and suggests he can be flushed from a clean pocket when defenses force him off his first read. The rushing volume (95 carries, 6 touchdowns) is real but comes with a modest 3.1 yards per carry — he is a threat to run, not a runner by design.

247Sports — Pribula transfer to Virginia · SI.com — Pribula predicted to start at Virginia in 2026 · Streaking the Lawn — Virginia secures Pribula · On3 — Pribula injury/return vs Oklahoma

As a true freshman he showed exactly why he was the top-ranked receiver in his class: 34 catches, 497 yards, three touchdowns and a rushing score across 11 games -- including a seven-catch, 89-yard outing against Penn State -- before a knee injury ended his regular season early. Now projected as an Oregon starter opposite a healthy Evan Stewart, he's the hyped underclassman of this group. The forward stakes are the sophomore leap: the talent and the freshman flashes are there, and a full, healthy season in a featured role is where a No. 1 recruit becomes a star. For Moore, 2026 is the year the recruiting ranking becomes production.

On tape Moore is an explosive, big-play receiver whose freshman tape already grades like a featured weapon. Our play-by-play has him in the 91st percentile for explosive-catch rate and the 77th for both yards-per-catch and touchdown rate -- the chunk-play juice you'd expect from the class's top-ranked receiver, with the production cut short by the knee. He wins with speed and suddenness, the kind of receiver who turns a short throw into a long gain. As the highest-ceiling underclassman in this group, the projection is straightforward: a full, healthy season and a featured role, and the flashes become a breakout.

Yahoo/Register-Guard -- Oregon's Dakorien Moore returning · Wikipedia -- Dakorien Moore (2025 freshman season)

The Michigan year was a tease. In seven games before the injury, Haynes ran for 857 yards and 10 touchdowns at 7.1 yards a carry -- a per-touch rate that, by our play-by-play, no other Power Four running back in the modern era has matched over a real workload. Then the season ended, and so did his time in Ann Arbor: by reporting, the split came down to NIL money and a desire for a change, and he was in the portal by January.

Georgia Tech is the homecoming. Buford is barely thirty minutes from campus, and Brent Key's program landed him to be the unquestioned featured back -- the centerpiece of a run-first offense that should finally hand him the volume Michigan's committee never did. The Doak Walker buzz is already there; Georgia Tech fans had him tagged a 'Doak Walker RB of the year candidate' before he'd taken a single handoff in white and gold.

The forward question isn't the talent. Our perception-versus-production model has fans rating him in the 98th percentile and his actual production in the 100th -- a rare case where the hype is fully earned, not inflated. It's durability and volume: can a back who has never carried a full healthy season as the clear lead, at his third school, turn elite-per-carry efficiency into the counting stats a Doak Walker actually requires? Get there, and the journeyman label flips to the best back in the country.

On tape Scouts and fans describe Haynes the same way, and the play-by-play backs every word: an explosive 'one-cut-and-go' runner with 'home-run hitting long-strider speed' and 'knockout-inducing contact balance' in the open field, per Pro Football Network's scouting profile. The data is just as loud -- a 94th-percentile yards-per-carry, a 90th-percentile rushing-touchdown rate (he finishes, not just gets to the second level), and an 85th-percentile EPA per carry (real value on every touch). The 64th-percentile explosive-run rate and a 75-yard long are the booms fans clip; the 71st-percentile rushing success rate says he's efficient on early downs too, not boom-or-bust. The honest limit is the one evaluators flag and his stat line confirms -- 13 catches for 50 yards in 2025 -- he's a between-the-tackles hammer more than a true three-down back. At a compact 5-foot-10, 210 pounds he runs angry and bigger than the frame, the kind of volume early-down back an offense can build a downhill identity around -- if the body finally holds up.

AJC -- ex-Buford star RB returning home to play for Georgia Tech · Eleven Warriors -- Haynes transfers to Georgia Tech after one year at Michigan · SI -- Georgia Tech lands elite RB Justice Haynes from the portal · Pro Football Network -- Justice Haynes scouting report (one-cut burst, contact balance)

He led the Big 12 in rushing with 1,305 yards on a conference-high 236 carries, scored 12 times, added 36 catches, and walked off with Offensive Player of the Year -- the workhorse engine of a BYU team with rising ambitions. He returns for his senior season with two prizes in sight: the school's career rushing record (within about 1,347 yards) and a CFP berth, paired with quarterback Bear Bachmeier in a backfield built to contend. The forward stakes are legacy and a ceiling: the most-used back in his conference, chasing a number that would etch him into BYU history and a season that could put the Cougars in the Playoff for the first time. For Martin, 2026 is the year the productive grinder goes for something permanent.

On tape Martin is a high-volume, reliable lead back rather than a flashy one. Our play-by-play has him solidly above-average -- a 73rd-percentile yards-per-carry on the heaviest workload in his conference -- with the efficiency profile of a grinder (mid-pack success rate and EPA per carry) who wins by accumulation and durability more than explosion. He's a dependable receiver too (36 catches), the every-down sort a Playoff hopeful can lean on for 25 touches without blinking. The game is steadiness: he doesn't come off the field, he doesn't fumble away games, and over four quarters the yards pile up. For a team chasing its first Playoff, that kind of bell-cow reliability is its own form of star power.

ESPN -- BYU's LJ Martin to return for senior season · Deseret News -- LJ Martin returning to BYU for 2026

He carried it 220 times for 1,170 yards and eight scores, added 31 catches as a genuine receiving threat, and saved a 266-yard explosion for the rivalry game against Florida State -- a 5.3-per-carry, all-situations workhorse who earned an 89.5 PFF grade and, by PFF's measure, has been as valuable as any Power Four back over two seasons. Now he anchors a made-over Florida offense entering his junior year. The forward stakes are the leap from very good to All-America: the durability and the three-down skill set are already there, so 2026 is about volume, health, and an offense that gives him room. For a back this complete, the breakout isn't a question of ability -- it's a question of opportunity.

On tape Baugh is a true three-down back whose value is in his completeness rather than one elite trait. Our play-by-play has him solidly above-average as a runner -- mid-pack yards-per-carry and success rate on heavy volume -- but the number that pops is his 92nd-percentile catch rate: he's a reliable, natural receiver out of the backfield, not just a checkdown. He runs with patience and enough power to handle a feature load (220 carries, and a 266-yard rivalry game says he can take over). He's not a track-speed home-run hitter; he's the every-down hammer who catches, pass-protects, and finishes -- the kind of back a coordinator can build a whole offense's rhythm around.

On3 -- Jadan Baugh returning to Florida for his junior season · CBS Sports -- Baugh recruiting/portal & Florida

Two seasons, 2,057 rushing yards, 18 touchdowns -- and in 2025, 884 yards on 8.75 yards a carry in just nine games, one of the most explosive per-carry marks in the country (our explosiveness metric grades it in the 98th percentile). When he entered the portal in January he became its No. 1 back overnight; then he negotiated a new deal and came home, telling Louisville he wanted to "make a statement." Now the Freshman All-American turned third-team All-ACC pick is the undisputed centerpiece of Jeff Brohm's offense for his junior year. The forward stakes are an All-America case and a draft climb: a back who turns the corner and is gone needs only volume and health to be the ACC's premier home-run hitter. For Brown, 2026 is the year the highlight reel becomes a résumé.

On tape Brown is a home-run hitter in a 5-9, 190 frame -- built low, built to disappear around the edge. The explosiveness is the headline and it's real: 8.75 yards per carry in 2025 (up from 7.1 as a freshman), which our play-by-play grades in the 98th percentile, paired with an 82nd-percentile success rate that says the booms don't come at the cost of steady gains. The earliest scouting read (an SI breakdown, from his recruiting days) flagged exactly what the tape now shows -- "elusive" and "very good at avoiding contact," with a specialty "running to the boundary and turning the corner" off an "above-average first cut" -- plus real value as a receiver "out of the backfield, especially on swing passes." The honest note is the frame: at 190 pounds he's a speed-and-space back, not a between-the-tackles grinder. Give him the edge and a crease, and he's one of the fastest players to the perimeter in the sport.

ESPN -- Isaac Brown to remain at Louisville (Jan 4, 2026) · 247Sports -- All-American RB Isaac Brown returning to Louisville for 2026 · SI/Louisville -- Brown aiming to 'make a statement' for 2026

His freshman year at North Texas was historic: 1,434 rushing yards, 25 rushing touchdowns to lead all of FBS, 32 catches for 370 yards and four more scores -- 29 total touchdowns, breaking Kenneth Dixon's 2012 NCAA FBS freshman record. When his coaching staff moved to Oklahoma State, he followed, carrying a record-setting résumé into a power conference. The forward stakes are the level-up every G5-to-P4 star faces: the production was real, but Big 12 defenses are a different proposition. As the headliner of a remade Oklahoma State backfield, 2026 is his proof season -- the year a record-breaking freshman shows the numbers travel.

On tape Hawkins is a dual-threat scorer whose game is built on finishing and versatility. Our play-by-play (from his North Texas tape) is strong across the board: an 87th-percentile rushing-touchdown rate and 86th-percentile success rate from a back who found the end zone at a historic clip, plus an 86th-percentile explosive-run rate -- he finishes AND breaks them. The receiving is no afterthought: a 98th-percentile catch rate makes him a true weapon out of the backfield. The profile is a complete, every-down back who scores from anywhere -- on the ground, through the air, at the goal line. The only unknown is competition level, and that's exactly what 2026 in the Big 12 will answer.

Wikipedia -- Caleb Hawkins (FBS freshman TD record) · Oklahoma State -- Caleb Hawkins 2026 roster

Madsen's 2025 stat line looks modest on the surface — 2,333 yards, 58.3 percent completions, 18 touchdowns, 9 interceptions — but the play-by-play context reframes it. His average depth of target sits at the 78th percentile nationally, and his explosive pass rate (completions of 15-plus yards) ranks 79th. He is not a timing-rhythm quarterback padding completion percentages on three-yard hitches. Every time he drops back he is asking his receivers to beat somebody.

That approach inflates his touchdown rate to the 71st percentile and his EPA per dropback to the 67th — real production, generated by taking shots. The cost is visible: a 31st-percentile completion percentage and a 20th-percentile interception rate. Those are not anomalies to explain away; they are the predictable tradeoff of a vertically-oriented offense. Madsen's sack rate (64th percentile) suggests he moves on quickly when the shot isn't there, which limits the damage on any given play.

The 2026 stakes are concrete. Boise State's top four pass-catchers from 2025 all moved on, leaving Madsen to build chemistry with an essentially new supporting cast. If the Broncos can develop a genuine go-to downfield target, the infrastructure is already in place for a Davey O'Brien watch-list conversation. If the receiver room sputters, the interception rate becomes the loudest number on the page.

On tape Madsen plays like a quarterback who has decided that short completions are someone else's job. His 78th-percentile average depth of target and 79th-percentile explosive pass rate are not byproducts of receiver separation — they are the plan. He takes the shot, finishes at a 71st-percentile touchdown rate when drives reach the red zone, and limits negative plays with a 64th-percentile sack rate. The completion percentage (31st percentile) and interception rate (20th percentile) are the honest price of that scheme. He is not a game-manager; he is a vertical-first signal-caller who needs talent around him to function at his ceiling.

SI.com — Boise State QB room enters 2026 with proven starter · CBS Sports — Madsen leads Boise State over UNLV for third straight Mountain West championship · SI.com — Will a go-to receiver emerge for Madsen in 2026? · Boise State Athletics — Maddux Madsen roster page

Stewart announced himself as a unanimous Freshman All-American and just kept coming: 56 tackles, 11 sacks and six forced fumbles across his first 24 games, the production of an edge rusher who's both fast off the ball and disruptive once he arrives. At 6-5, 245, he pairs explosive bend with a knack for the strip. He's officially back, and because of his age, he isn't draft-eligible until 2027 -- meaning a top-three returning edge talent is locked in for a defining junior year, paired with the return of quarterback LaNorris Sellers. The forward stakes are an All-America, double-digit-sack season: the tools and the early production already make him one of the most dangerous pass rushers in the sport.

On tape Stewart is a bend-and-burst edge rusher -- the modern speed-rush archetype. The trait that pops on tape and in the numbers is the corner: explosive get-off and the flexibility to flatten to the quarterback, which is how a player produces 11 sacks this early. The six forced fumbles add the finishing element -- he doesn't just get there, he rips the ball out. At 6-5, 245 he's still filling out, which is the exciting part: the speed rush is already elite, and the power and counters that come with a stronger frame would make him complete. He's a quarterback's nightmare off the edge with a runway most stars don't get.

ESPN -- star EDGE Dylan Stewart returning to South Carolina for 2026 · 247Sports -- Dylan Stewart return for 2026 season

Robinson's 2025 was a star turn: 56 catches, an ACC-leading 1,081 yards, six touchdowns, first-team All-ACC, a Phil Steele third-team All-America nod and a Biletnikoff semifinal berth. At 6-6, 222, the former USC transfer is a downfield and contested-catch problem few defenses can solve (18 contested grabs). He forwent the 2026 draft to come back. The forward stakes are the leap from very good to elite: he's already the ACC's most productive returning receiver, and a true breakout senior year would lock in a 2027 first-round profile. For a target this big who can run, 2026 is about consolidating the flashes into a complete season -- and being the player Florida State's offense runs through.

On tape Robinson is a big-bodied vertical weapon, and the data is emphatic on the deep ball: a 94th-percentile yards-per-catch (over 19 a grab), an 85th-percentile explosive-catch rate, and an 84th-percentile EPA per target -- a true field-stretcher despite his size. The honest counterweight is a 41st-percentile catch rate, the trade-off of a receiver who feasts on contested, downfield throws rather than easy completions -- the same profile his 18 contested catches describe. He's a back-shoulder, high-point, win-above-the-rim target rather than a quick-separation slot. At 6-6 with this kind of vertical juice, he's the matchup a defensive coordinator loses sleep over -- and the cleaner his catch rate gets, the closer he is to the first round.

ESPN -- Duce Robinson to forgo NFL Draft, return to Florida State · Florida State -- Robinson to remain at FSU for 2026