THE LEAD· OHIO STATE · NEWS

Freshman removes black stripe in camp

Eleven guys left for the NFL and camp's barely started — a black stripe off a freshman WR tells you Day's staff is already hunting for the next one.

Top-3 programReported3d ago
FAN BELIEF INDEX
48-1
From 2.4k posts measured in the latest pulse.
OUR POWER RANK
No. 3
Where our 2026 power ratings have them.
MARKET WIN TOTAL
9.5-1.0
Opened 10.5.
WHAT DECIDES IT
SCHEDULEOne of the first four is on the road. The only ranked opponent in the window is No. 4 Texas, away, Sep 12 (Coaches Poll).scheduled
THE ROOMThe room has gone cold — fan sentiment sits 1st percentile among FBS fanbases this week, across 2,172 mentions.our readHigh confidence · n=2172
OUR CALLThe market is higher on them than the room is. Polymarket priced Ohio State at 13.5% to win the title on Aug 14. That is the 1st-widest market-over-fans gap in our 10-team contender cohort.our readMedium confidence
Read the source →The full Ohio State storyline →The whole wire →
WHAT THE ROOM IS SAYING ABOUT OHIO STATE

“"I'm going to tell two more talented programs, Ohio State, and UGA to kick rocks and go to less talented Nebraska to be the man." \Struggles to win with less-talented Nebraska\ Raiola \sh…”

r/CFB · 692 upvotes · 2026-08-06

“If Ohio State wins the game this year like 42-10, these Underwood/Whittingham comments are going to circulate like crazy lol. Sports talk in Michigan is going to have a field day”

r/CFB · 681 upvotes · 2026-08-11
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Also moving this morning

Oregon · 247SportsOregon football notebook: Freshmen running backs on the rise and Dylan Williams' fitNews · YesterdayNotre Dame · BeefSomething set off the Notre Dame faithful60pt gapand the receipts are in the comments.Reddit r/CFB · 3d agoMiami · BeefThe Miami boards are loud right now. Something happened.50pt gapDISRUPTION: Miami Hurricanes, Mario Cristobal FACE Threats from Louisville, SMU in ACC Title RaceReddit r/CFB · 3d ago

The wirelast 2 days

MarketPenn State: Win total: 8.5 → 9.5 (▲1)YesterdayRosterIllinois updates injuries, roster makeupRosterOregon RB Jordon Davison injured in campNewssec: SEC commissioner reminds members on eligibility rulesScheduleOklahoma injury update through first week of fall campScheduleMaryland DE Zahir Mathis out for seasonRosterAlabama: AK Dear out couple weeksAug 13RosterWest Virginia: Chambers and Barrick rejoin WVU football
All wire items →

The playoff forecast Low confidence

14%
Ohio State
champion — our model

Ohio State leads our model — but the market isn't as sold yet

Preseason baseline · as of 2026-08-07 · a point-in-time snapshot, not a live feed

Field shape

Where the championship mass sits

14% favorite · 34% chasers · 32% rest of field · 20% everyone else

Favorite: 14%Chasers (ranked 2-4): 34%Rest of the field (5-12): 32%Everyone else: 20%
Source Our model, 20,000 season simulations
missed fieldfirst roundquarterfinalsemifinalfinalchampion
Ohio StateBig Tenmissed field: 23%first round: 9%quarterfinal: 26%semifinal: 17%final: 10%champion: 14%14%mkt 10+5 ⚠
Texas A&MSECmissed field: 23%first round: 10%quarterfinal: 27%semifinal: 17%final: 10%champion: 12%12%mkt 3+9 ⚠
Texas TechBig 12missed field: 26%first round: 14%quarterfinal: 24%semifinal: 15%final: 9%champion: 11%11%mkt 3+8 ⚠
GeorgiaSECmissed field: 31%first round: 11%quarterfinal: 24%semifinal: 15%final: 9%champion: 10%10%mkt 7
Notre DameFBS Independentsmissed field: 44%first round: 12%quarterfinal: 19%semifinal: 11%final: 6%champion: 8%8%mkt 10
AlabamaSECmissed field: 43%first round: 12%quarterfinal: 21%semifinal: 11%final: 7%champion: 7%7%mkt 3+4 ⚠
Show all 12 teams+159 more
TexasSECmissed field: 47%first round: 13%quarterfinal: 20%semifinal: 11%final: 5%champion: 4%4%mkt 9−4 ⚠
OregonBig Tenmissed field: 59%first round: 10%quarterfinal: 15%semifinal: 8%final: 4%champion: 4%4%mkt 8−4 ⚠
ClemsonACCmissed field: 64%first round: 11%quarterfinal: 12%semifinal: 6%final: 3%champion: 3%3%mkt 1
OklahomaSECmissed field: 61%first round: 11%quarterfinal: 15%semifinal: 7%final: 3%champion: 3%3%mkt 3
LSUSECmissed field: 67%first round: 10%quarterfinal: 12%semifinal: 6%final: 3%champion: 2%2%mkt 4
IndianaBig Tenmissed field: 75%first round: 8%quarterfinal: 9%semifinal: 4%final: 2%champion: 2%2%mkt 8−6 ⚠
Full bubble watch →
How we forecast

Our model ran 20,000 season simulations from team strength ratings and schedule difficulty to produce this preseason baseline (as of 2026-08-07). The percentage shown is our championship probability. It is a point-in-time snapshot taken on 2026-08-07, not a live feed. The market figure beside it is current.

The mkt figure is aggregated from major sportsbooks with the house margin removed — what bettors collectively believe. Large gaps are worth watching.

Bars desaturate early in the season and sharpen as games are played. Full methodology →

Conference odds
ModelMkt
Ohio State14%10%
Texas A&M12%3%
Texas Tech11%3%
Georgia10%7%
Notre Dame8%10%
Alabama7%3%
Full bubble watch →