Syracuse
No. 13Texas A&M at Alabama
Alabama’s playoff chance goes from 60% to 70% with a win, 44% with a loss.
▼44%
▲70%
Our ratings, playoff odds and what fans are saying, next to the polls.
Top-ranked matchup this week · Sat, Oct 24 · 10:15 PM ET · ESPN
No. 14 Houston at No. 10 Utah
Houston 6-1 · Utah 6-0
57%Our model gives Utah a 57% chance to win (run Oct 23).Betting line: Utah by 6.5
Houston’s playoff chance: 30% with a win, 9% with a loss
Utah’s playoff chance: 33% with a win, 14% with a loss
Your team’s game can take this spot.
Games that matter this week
Our model’s playoff chances if each team wins or loses · run Oct 23 · week 8
No. 7 and No. 19Ole Miss at Texas
Ole Miss’s playoff chance goes from 50% to 66% with a win, 40% with a loss.
▼40%
▲66%
No. 11Tennessee at South Carolina
Tennessee’s playoff chance goes from 37% to 48% with a win, 27% with a loss.
▼27%
▲48%
No. 8Texas Tech at Cincinnati
Texas Tech’s playoff chance goes from 48% to 52% with a win, 30% with a loss.
▼30%
▲52%
Ole Miss made the biggest jump in our playoff chances since Oct 17, to 49%
In-season forecast · our model, 20,000 simulated seasons, run Oct 23
Big for the playoff this week
LSU at Auburn
No. 18 LSUPlayoff chance: 45% with a win, 24% with a loss
Playoff chance: 6% with a win, 2% with a loss
Bars run from a loss to a win, on a scale of 0 to 100%.
Next most at stake
- USC at WisconsinUSC: 41% with a win, 21% with a loss
- Indiana at MichiganIndiana: 32% with a win, 13% with a loss
Who gets in
Share of our simulated seasons in which each team makes the field. Arrows: change in points since the Oct 17 run (5 or more).
Ohio State84%up 8 points
Georgia83%down 12 points
Miami79%
Notre Dame69%down 14 points
Texas63%down 14 points
Alabama59%down 18 points
Ole Miss49%up 17 points
Texas Tech47%
Kentucky40%up 14 points- LSU39%up 15 points
UCLA38%- 11 places for these teams. The 12th is reserved for a team from the conferences outside the Power Four.
Tennessee37%up 15 points
Florida34%up 13 points
USC33%
BYU27%up 5 points
Ole Miss rose the most since Oct 17, 32% to 49%. It won 31-3 against Missouri.
Alabama fell the most since Oct 17, 77% to 59%. It lost 26-10 at Tennessee.
Who takes the reserved place: Boise State 31%, Oregon State 18%, James Madison 13%.
What coaches said
From articles published Oct 22
“Coach [Cherokee Valeria] and I are always in communication about how to play off each other”
Mark Carney, Kent State coachDeShields, football looks to get back on track against Akron
KentStater · Oct 22Saturday vs. Akron · 1:00 PM ET
“Win or lose we have 24 hours and we’ve got to move on”
Zach Kittley, Florida Atlantic coachEditor-to-Editor: FAU hosts Rice in crucial homecoming game
FAU University Press · Oct 22Saturday vs. Rice · 12:00 PM ET
“I’m just impressed with a lot of the growth of the guys across the board and there’s more and more guys that are really accountable and frustrated if they don’t do their job at a high level”
Dan Lanning, Oregon coachHow Oregon’s defense grew through two of its toughest matchups of the season
Daily Emerald · Oct 22Saturday at Illinois · 3:00 PM ET
“We just felt like we needed a spark. We’ve been inconsistent on offense and we just needed some more consistency”
Ken Niumatalolo, San José State coachFreshman leads SJSU into Nevada
Spartan Media Group · Oct 22Saturday at Nevada · 5:00 PM ET
Georgia is our model’s favorite, with a 1-in-6 shot at the title
Our model, 20,000 simulated seasons, run Oct 23
1Georgia17.3%
Where Georgia’s simulated seasons end
17.3% missed the playoff9.2% lost first round24.8% lost quarterfinal19.7% lost semifinal11.7% lost final17.3% champion
The market prices the title at 12.8%, below our 17.3%.
Georgia’s team page2Ohio State14.9%
Where Ohio State’s simulated seasons end
16.4% missed the playoff8.7% lost first round28.1% lost quarterfinal20.2% lost semifinal11.7% lost final14.9% champion
The market prices the title at 12.8%, below our 14.9%.
Ohio State’s team page3Notre Dame14.1%
Where Notre Dame’s simulated seasons end
31.4% missed the playoff13.2% lost first round17.3% lost quarterfinal14.3% lost semifinal9.7% lost final14.1% champion
The market prices the title at 14.0%, below our 14.1%.
Notre Dame’s team page4Alabama7.9%
Where Alabama’s simulated seasons end
41.1% missed the playoff13.1% lost first round17.2% lost quarterfinal13.5% lost semifinal7.2% lost final7.9% champion
The market prices the title at 5.5%, below our 7.9%.
Alabama’s team page5Texas7.3%
Where Texas’s simulated seasons end
36.9% missed the playoff14.2% lost first round20.2% lost quarterfinal13.9% lost semifinal7.5% lost final7.3% champion
The market prices the title at 4.5%, below our 7.3%.
Texas’s team page6Miami6.6%
Where Miami’s simulated seasons end
21.3% missed the playoff27.0% lost first round23.0% lost quarterfinal14.4% lost semifinal7.7% lost final6.6% champion
The market prices the title at 11.0%, above our 6.6%.
Miami’s team pagePlays that swung the game
The biggest win-chance swing in each game played Oct 17
Ball State at Bowling GreenFinal: Ball State 32, Bowling Green 31Horton 1-yd TD run, Ball State goes ahead 32-31OvertimeBall State win chance 22% → ▲100%Down to a 3% chance in overtime, Ball State still won.CFB ON FOX · 2026 · Week 7 · Game highlightsNebraska at OregonRaiola 4-yd TD pass to Johnson, Oregon goes ahead 17-14Q4, 0:28 · Oregon 17, Nebraska 14Oregon win chance 48% → ▲98%▶Watch the play, Nebraska at Oregon, 2026 Week 7. Oregon win chance 48% to 98%CFB ON FOXNotre Dame at BYUFinal: BYU 28, Notre Dame 24Carr incomplete to GreathouseQ4, 0:04BYU win chance 50% → ▲100%A 10.5-point underdog, BYU won it.Florida at TexasFinal: Florida 27, Texas 24Manning sacked for a 9-yd loss, fumblesQ4, 1:58Florida win chance 41% → ▲87%Florida came back from 14 down as a 13.5-point underdog.ESPN College Football · 2026 · Week 7 · Game highlightsKentucky at OklahomaCastell 41-yd interception return TD, Kentucky leads 21-13Q4, 1:17 · Kentucky 21, Oklahoma 13Kentucky win chance 45% → ▲87%▶Watch the play, Kentucky at Oklahoma, 2026 Week 7. Kentucky win chance 45% to 87%ESPN College Football
Auburn at GeorgiaFinal: Auburn 27, Georgia 24McPherson 34-yd field goal, Auburn goes ahead 27-24Q4, 0:00Auburn win chance 58% → ▲100%Auburn came back from 14 down as a 19.5-point underdog.
Fresno State at San Diego StateFinal: San Diego State 26, Fresno State 23Emanuel 7-yd TD pass to Napier, San Diego State goes ahead 23-17Q4, 12:00 · San Diego State 23, Fresno State 17San Diego State win chance 40% → ▲73%Down to 27% in the third quarter, San Diego State came back to win.
Northwestern at Michigan StateFinal: Northwestern 24, Michigan State 21Boyd 33-yd field goal no good, blockedQ4, 1:00 · Northwestern 21, Michigan State 21Northwestern win chance 36% → ▲67%Down to 22% in the fourth quarter, Northwestern came back to win.Win chance as on each game page, set to the closing line. Official highlights play in the channel’s own player. Clips checked Oct 23.
Miami is No. 1 in the AP and fifth for us
Our top 10 against the AP and Coaches polls · our ratings updated Oct 23 · polls through week 8
| Our rank | Team | CFB Zeitgeist Score | AP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State | 16.5 | 3up 1 |
| 2 | Notre Dame | 16.2 | 4down 2 |
| 3 |  Indiana | 14.6 | 6down 1 |
| 4 | Georgia | 14.3 | 5down 4 |
| 5 | Miami | 13.4 | 1up 2 |
| 6 | LSU | 12.5 | 18up 4 |
| 7 | Texas Tech | 12.1 | 8up 2 |
| 8 | Texas | 12.1 | 19down 12 |
| 9 | Alabama | 12.0 | 13down 7 |
| 10 | Oregon | 11.9 | NR |
LSU is shaded: sixth for us and No. 18 in the AP, the widest gap in our top 10.
Darian Mensah is No. 1 on our Heisman board for the eighth straight week
Our model’s chances · week 8 board, updated Oct 23 · moves since the week 7 board
- 131%to be a finalist13% to win
- 2
Houston · QB
Wwon 35-32 vs Oklahoma StateOct 17 · 24 of 33, 343 yds, 5 TD, 1 INT · 11 rushes, 52 yds
19%to be a finalist5% to win - 319%to be a finalist5% to winup from No. 7 on the week 7 board
- 418%to be a finalist5% to win
- 517%to be a finalist5% to win
Last game lines are from the box score of each player’s most recent game.
The wire
Latest Oct 23 · roster moves, program news, money and governance
Today
Texas A&M football star dies at 49Texas A&M · Program news · 
New York PostSaturday at No. 13 Alabama · 3:30 PM ET
Minnesota beats North Dakota for first win of seasonMinnesota · Program newsSaturday vs. No. 15 Iowa · 3:30 PM ETDigital evidence reviewed in caseUtah · Money and governance · 
KUTVSaturday vs. No. 14 Houston · 10:15 PM ETSimmons out for Texas-Ole MissCollege football · Roster moves · 
ESPNYesterday
Mose Phillips III out for seasonOklahoma State · Roster moves · 
The OklahomanSaturday vs. Colorado · 7:00 PM ETElite LB recruit decommits from GeorgiaGeorgia · Roster moves · 
Yahoo Sports
Evan Dickens out for seasonBoston College · Roster moves · 
Sports IllustratedSaturday at Georgia Tech · 3:30 PM ET
Fran Brown names UNC QB1North Carolina · Roster moves · 
Syracuse.comSaturday vs. Syracuse · 7:30 PM ETShow more moves
Yesterday
Three-star RB decommits from LSULSU · Roster moves · LSU WireSaturday at Auburn · 12:00 PM ET
Nevada declines to release jersey patch deal's financial detailsNevada · Money and governance · Nevada Sports NetSaturday vs. San José State · 5:00 PM ET
Charles Barkley criticizes Buck-Aikman feudTroy · Program news · 
NJ.comSaturday vs. UL Monroe · 4:00 PM ET
Fired Nebraska coach demands $5MNebraska · Money and governance
$1M Sorsby lawsuit pendingCincinnati · Money and governance · 
Front Office SportsSaturday vs. No. 8 Texas Tech · 12:00 PM ET
Sean Hutton hospitalized after practice collapseOklahoma · Roster moves · 
OU DailySaturday at Mississippi State · 3:30 PM ET2027 LB Aston Whiteside flips to MiamiMiami · Roster movesSaturday vs. Pittsburgh · 12:00 PM ETWednesday
M&T Bank gets naming rights for Gampel PavilionUConn · Money and governance · 
The Daily Campus (UConn)Today vs. Massachusetts · 7:00 PM ETMichigan State fires head coachMichigan State · Coaches and staff · Yahoo SportsSaturday at No. 9 UCLA · 3:30 PM ET
Students rally for Nolan WellsMississippi State · Program news · 
The ReflectorSaturday vs. Oklahoma · 3:30 PM ETBecker apologized to DayIndiana · Program news · 
The Herald-TimesSaturday at Michigan · 12:00 PM ET
CMU HC rips CFP leadersCentral Michigan · Program news · 
PFSNSaturday vs. Miami (OH) · 1:00 PM ETThe wildest game of week 7
The board’s top game, ranked against the rest of week 7