CFB Index
June 22, 2026 · Dead Period · Heritage Window · 2026 Outlook

Massachusetts

0-12 2025 final

UMass is playing for the version of itself that gets invited to the conversation.

Founded 1879Titles 2Conf titles 10Conference MAC (as of 2025)Stadium Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium (17,000)Legacy Mark Whipple

UMass plays for the rung above itself. The off-season is where that gets built.

Record
0-12
win% .000
SP+
-9.3
Bowl Odds
Season closed
Year-over-Year
0 wins
Dead PeriodOffseasonPatientPost-loss — diagnostic
The Long Wait·Offseason

UMass spent nearly a decade as a homeless independent and just rejoined a conference — and the first season back, a winless one, was less a verdict than the price of finally having somewhere to climb from.

Standard GapA flagship research university with two FCS national titles vs an FBS pr…

UMass went 0-12 in 2025, Joe Harasymiak's first season and the program's first full year back in the MAC after the long independent stretch — the program's first winless campaign, and the price of rebuilding a roster while finally…

offseason · quiet
Read the full program story ↓

UMass went 0-12 in its first full MAC season back. The fanbase still showed up to McGuirk, still sang Rise as One, still answered the question everyone keeps asking about whether a flagship research university should be running an FBS program. The answer, as always, was yes.

The 1998 national championship — Mark Whipple's team, the I-AA title in its last year before the FCS rebranding — is the compass the program still navigates by. UMass knows what it looks like to win at the top of a level. The argument since the 2012 FBS move has been which level, and at what cost. Nine years as a homeless independent, playing road games that amounted to paid losses with no stakes and no standings, were the price of the ambition. The MAC return in 2025 was the first real structure in a decade.

The first season back was a winless one. Joe Harasymiak's debut year, 0-12, the program's bleakest record since making the FBS leap. But the framing matters: this was a roster being rebuilt from the ground up, a staff in its first year, a program playing real conference games for the first time since 2015. The floor was found. Harasymiak is back for year two with the same case every honest rebuild makes — the ladder is now visible, and the bottom rung is a conference win.

The 2026 question for UMass is not whether the program belongs in the MAC. It already answered that by rejoining. The question is whether the second-year roster can win the game that hasn't been won yet in this era — a MAC conference victory, the first step toward bowl eligibility, a height the program has never reached since going FBS. One win turns the story from endurance to progress. That's the only referendum that matters this fall.

How they play

Harasymiak's UMass plays identity-forward, grounded football at a small-stadium venue that creates genuine intimacy for a program structurally honest about the FBS revenue gap. The Minutemen are built through the portal and the walk-on pipeline at a flagship institution, playing for conference stakes the independent years never offered. The register is Pioneer Valley-specific: serious about the level without performing the part, allergic to being framed as a charming upset story.

program outlook · as of 2026-06-14
How They Play · 2025

Massachusetts fields a struggling pass-first offense behind a porous, bend-don't-break defense.

OffensePoor1st pct EPA/play · FBS
Run/PassPass-first, spread54% pass plays · 90th pct pass
DefensePoor5th pct EPA allowed · FBS
Defensive shapeBend-don't-break91st pct at limiting explosive plays

Identity computed from opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate, explosiveness, and run/pass volume — percentiles vs all FBS.

Offseason

69 days

until kickoff · Sun Aug 30 · 17:00 UTC

Act I

The 2026 Outlook

2026 Preview Thesis 2026 Evidence-validated

Massachusetts faces a challenging 2026 season with limited upgrades and high volatility

The team returns 76% of its roster but lacks drafted talent and has a #136 recruiting class, while transfer portal activity is mixed.

  • Roster reloadMassachusetts returns 76% of its roster, with 22 transfers in and 19 out, but no drafted players and a #136 recruiting class.
Data as of 2026-06-21 · Validated against program evidence

Offseason Pulse · UMass

Roster · Recruiting · Portal

Recruiting Class

#136 nationally

2025 cycle · 247 composite rating 37.0

Outside the recruiting top 60. Roster gaps must close via portal.

Returning Production

76%

2025 cycle · CFBD weighted

Top-tier continuity. QB returns.

Talent Composite

#118 nationally

2025 cycle · 247 composite 488.7

Outside the talent top 60. The wins must be earned in development.

Portal Movement

22 in / 19 out

2026 cycle · in 22 / out 19

Incoming and outgoing movement are tracked separately in Roster Reload.

Massachusetts · the story right now 2 storylines developing

What Massachusetts's offseason is really about

the open questioncan a new staff change the trajectory?

coachingthis cycle✓ factnew

Joe Harasymiak took over as Massachusetts's head coach, replacing Shane Montgomery.

the contextthe program's third head coach in five seasons
why it mattersJoe Harasymiak inherits a 0-12 program with 76% production returning — UMass's fourth coach in five seasons now faces the task of proving its identity.
narrative tension · our read
portal2025-06-15✓ factnew

Massachusetts signed a top-62 transfer-portal class — 35 additions headlined by Brandon Rose (QB) from Utah and Grant Jordan (QB) from Yale.

the contexta top-2 portal class in the Mid-American this cycle
why it mattersWilliam Watson III (QB) arrives at UMass as the headline addition in a top-2 MAC portal class — Harasymiak's first step toward escaping 0-12.
narrative tension · our read

The Offseason Ledger · UMass

1 verified move · portal · recruiting · staff
  1. Portal

    QB Logan Inagawa transfer commits from Drake

    Pioneer League quarterback to MAC — Inagawa is competition for the QB1 picture, not a presumed starter.

    Mar 6CFBD /player/portal

Roster Reload - UMass

2026 snapshot - 2026-06-21
Returning Production76%High continuity
Portal Additions22Primary repair: OT
Portal Losses19Primary pressure: EDGE
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#136Depth class (#136)
EDGEin 4 - Andrew DePaepe4.28out 5 - Marques White3.60Downgrade
WRin 3 - Randall King3.50out 4 - Jacquon Gibson3.60Even
QBin 3 - William Watson III3.49out 3 - Grant Jordan3.50Even
LBin 3 - Kendric Council3.50out 2 - Rashad Henry3.30Upgrade
RBin 2 - Jordan Washington3.40out 1 - Brandon Hood3.40Even
OTin 2 - Greg Knox3.50out 0Need Filled

The Pulse on UMass

Archive · Late Spring · 600 mentions · medium confidence
66
Δ +6.7 vs last wk
600 mentions this week · conversation velocity

What moved it — offseason · last 30 days

June Dead-period quiet — official-visit + heritage window
Camp Fall camp ~40 days out
"UMass plays for the rung above itself." — UMass fanbase · recurring line

Five Lenses

What people are saying right now

The broader fanbase3 posts
UMass Athletics

umass · 6d ago

Aspiration Ladder

Brief Part III §33.4 · UMass

Bowl eligibility (6 wins)

The baseline goal for a program at this stage.

Beat a rival

The narrative win the season is graded by.

Statement year

Exceed last season by 2+ wins.

Conference championshipLocked

Out of reach without a transformative year.

UMass · Next-Season Outcome Band

Floor / Base / Ceiling

floor3-9No postseason.
base5-7No postseason.
ceiling8-5Bowl game.

Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.

Market outlook

Season expectations

Win total2 booksO/U 2.5
CFP championship#131 in field+100000
MAC title#12 in market+8000

Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-06-22

Recruiting Reload - Top 3 commits

2026 class
★★★☆☆
Terron Johnson
CB · Oakdale, CT
#1687 national
★★★☆☆
Corey Warner
CB · Louisville, KY
#1750 national
★★★☆☆
David Moore Jr.
ATH · West Orange, NJ
#1838 national

Recruiting Footprint · 2026

14
CT · 2MA · 2NJ · 2PA · 2CA · 1DC · 1KY · 1MD · 1+2 more

CT leads the 2026 class with 2 commits. National footprint reaching 10 states.

Where they recruit · 2023-2026

33 signees across 18 states, 2023-2026. NJ leads the pull.

MEVTNHWAIDMTNDMNWIMINYMAORNVWYSDIAILINOHPANJCTCAUTCONEMOKYWVVAMDDERIAZNMKSARTNNCSCDCOKLAMSALGAAKHITXFL
Source CFB Index · player_recruiting_profiles
Act II

Who We Are

Program Prestige · UMass

Regional

Regional program — limited national profile.

T1Regional
T2Mid-Major
T3Power
T4National
T5Blue Blood
T6Dynasty
T7All-Time

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank Massachusetts

CFB Index

#168

-9.3

SP+

#136

-36.6

FPI

#136

-30.5

Elo

#136

718

SRS

#136

-32.3

The national models put Massachusetts a consensus 136th nationally — the CFB Index is more skeptical, at 168th.

National rank of 136 FBS teams · 2025 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Index ranked by rating.

Coaching Era · UMass

Joe Harasymiak

Joe Harasymiak took over from Shane Montgomery for the 2025 season.

Era Joe Harasymiak · 2025–presentPrev: Shane Montgomery (2024)
1 year · era

Rituals

Three small things — but they're the program.

Minuteman Cannon

since 1972

Replica 1775-era cannon fired by the UMass Pep Band (the Power and Class Marching Band). The cannon connects the program identity to the Massachusetts Minutemen — the Revolutionary War militia the program is named for. Less famous than Texas's Smokey or Tennessee's tradition equivalents, but cleanly tied to regional history.

Power and Class (band tradition)

since 1880s

The marching band's nickname IS the program identity phrase — 'Power and Class' is what UMass calls itself when defining the institution against bigger-program comparisons. Distinct in that the band branding flows back to the football program, not the reverse. Smaller than Big Ten band productions; precise.

Fight Mass (fight song)

since 1970s

Sometimes called 'My UMass' — the fight song variations have shifted with conference moves (Yankee Conference → MAC → independent → Sun Belt). Less iconic than SEC or Big Ten fight songs because UMass football's conference identity has been less stable. The song persists; the affiliation shifts around it.

Sam the Minuteman

since 1972

Costumed mascot — colonial-era militiaman with tricorn hat and musket. Distinct from generic mascots because the figure references actual historical UMass identity (the state's Revolutionary War heritage). Sam's musket is a costume prop, not functional. The mascot was redesigned in the 2000s to look less aggressive — more historical-reenactor than menacing.

Flagship-First Identity

since 2024 (Mark Whipple return era branding refresh)

'Flagship' is UMass's branding for being the flagship campus of the University of Massachusetts system. Used in recruiting, signage, marketing. Frames UMass football as the football program that represents an entire state university system. Less a ritual than an institutional positioning the program adopted post-FBS-transition.

Fanbase Health Index · UMass · medium confidence

Growing (51)

DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 0-12 (0% win rate)30
Volume — 127 effective signal-N72

Home-Field Advantage · UMass · 2018-present

Elite

17% home win rate vs 5% on the road. margin runs +14.2 better at home.

Home5-24Away2-33

Chronicle Visuals

5 deterministic SVG · provenance-gated
2026 preview

Among the most continuous rosters into 2025 — 76% back, anchored by the qb room, only offense to settle.

Among the most continuous rosters into 2025 — 76% back, anchored by the qb room, only offense to settle.Offense is the stress point for 2025. Source: CFB Index — returning production vs the FBS average (dashed = league avg) · 2025 · high confidenceRETURNING PRODUCTION · 2025Among the most continuous rosters into2025 — 76% back, anchored by the qbroom, only offense to settle.QB roomQB room: 95% returning95%OffenseOffense: 76% returning76%OverallOverall: 76% returning76%▸ Offense is the stress point for 2025.Source: CFB Index — returning production vs the FBS average(dashed = league avg) · 2025 · high confidence
model-confident
2026 preview

The portal upgraded the OT room but opened a hole at EDGE.

The portal upgraded the OT room but opened a hole at EDGE.Net +3 · upgraded OT · hole at EDGE. Source: CFB Index — transfer portal in/out by position (count) · 2026 · 22 in / 19 out · high confidenceTRANSFER PORTAL · 2026The portal upgraded the OT room butopened a hole at EDGE.OUTINCBCB: 1 out1CB: 1 in1net 0DLDL: 1 out1DL: 1 in1net 0EDGEEDGE: 5 out5EDGE: 4 in4net -1IOLIOL: 1 out1IOL: 1 in1net 0LBLB: 2 out2LB: 3 in3net +1LSLS: 1 in1net +1OTOT: 2 in2net +2QBQB: 3 out3QB: 3 in3net 0RBRB: 1 out1RB: 2 in2net +1SS: 1 out1S: 1 in1net 0WRWR: 4 out4WR: 3 in3net -1▸ Net +3 · upgraded OT · hole at EDGE.Source: CFB Index — transfer portal in/out by position(count) · 2026 · 22 in / 19 out · high confidence
model-confident
2026 preview

Massachusetts sits where recruit talent and draft yield largely match.

Massachusetts sits where recruit talent and draft yield largely match.Talent 10th, draft yield 20th among 132 programs. Source: CFB Index — recruit talent vs draft-pick yield · 2025 · 132 programs · high confidenceMASSACHUSETTS · TALENT YIELDMassachusetts sits where recruit talentand draft yield largely match.Recruit talent (percentile) →Draft yield (percentile) →Georgia — 99 / 99 pctileBaylor — 73 / 35 pctileWashington State — 28 / 64 pctileCentral Michigan — 8 / 43 pctileOld Dominion — 7 / 51 pctileMassachusetts — 10 / 20 pctileMassachusettsWashington StateOld DominionCentral MichiganGeorgiaBaylor▸ Talent 10th, draft yield 20th among 132 programs.Source: CFB Index — recruit talent vs draft-pick yield ·2025 · 132 programs · high confidence
model-confident
2024 season

Calm on the surface in 2024 — but the weekly trend ran the wrong way.

Calm on the surface in 2024 — but the weekly trend ran the wrong way.calm on the surface, but trending the wrong way. Source: CFB Index — per-game power-rating swings · 2024 · 10 games · high confidenceTHE WEEK-TO-WEEK RIDE · 2024Calm on the surface in 2024 — but theweekly trend ran the wrong way.Game 1: -0.29 power swingGame 2: -0.29 power swingGame 3: -0.32 power swingGame 4: -0.32 power swingGame 5: -0.89 power swingGame 6: -0.89 power swingGame 7: -1.28 power swingGame 8: -1.28 power swingGame 9: -0.09 power swingGame 10: -0.09 power swing-1.3▲ stock-up week▼ stock-down week▸ calm on the surface, but trending the wrong way.Source: CFB Index — per-game power-rating swings · 2024 · 10games · high confidence
model-confident
2024 season

L 20-23 vs Miami (OH) leads the season's top 5 results by combined power and résumé delta.

L 20-23 vs Miami (OH) leads the season's top 5 results by combined power and résumé delta.L 20-23 vs Miami (OH) is the biggest mover. Source: CFB Index — results ranked by combined power + résumé impact · top 5 games · medium confidenceSTATEMENT WINS · TOP 5 RESULTSL 20-23 vs Miami (OH) leads the season'stop 5 results by combined power andrésumé delta.L 20-23 vs Miami (OH)L 20-23 vs Miami (OH) — -0.03 résumé impactL 20-23 vs Miami (OH) — -0.03 résumé impact-0.03L 14-28 vs Eastern MichiganL 14-28 vs Eastern Michigan — -0.29 résumé impact-0.29L 23-38 vs ToledoL 23-38 vs Toledo — -0.59 résumé impact-0.59L 3-34 vs BuffaloL 3-34 vs Buffalo — -0.69 résumé impact-0.69W 35-31 vs Central ConnecticuW 35-31 vs Central Connecticut — -1.07 résumé impact-1.07▸ L 20-23 vs Miami (OH) is the biggest mover.Source: CFB Index — results ranked by combined power +résumé impact · top 5 games · medium confidence
solid read
THE SAVANT CARD · UMass · 2025

UMass reads strongest in explosive plays allowed (top 9%) and rushing epa allowed (top 75%); the crux lives in passing epa allowed, where UMass sits at the 1st percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play -0.04
1st
Success Rate +0.33
3rd
Explosive Plays +1.18
18th
Rushing EPA -0.05
4th

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed +0.27
5th
Success Rate Allowed +0.48
5th
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.14
91st
Passing EPA Allowed +0.58
1st

hidden math · special situations

Passing EPA -0.01
3rd
Rushing EPA Allowed +0.14
26th
ELITE · 90+STRONG · 70+AVERAGE · 40-70CONCERN · 10-40BOTTOM · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · opponent-adjusted · 12 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 139 FBS peers
How the room reactedreal evidence · tap rooms to explore
WHERE IT STANDS · MASSACHUSETTS · COACHING Confidence

The Joe Harasymiak era at Massachusetts: where it actually stands.

Joe Harasymiak took over as Massachusetts's head coach, replacing Shane Montgomery. It is the program's third head coach in five seasons. The hire is settled; what matters now is the gap between the name on the door and the results on the field. The discourse has moved on; what's left is the quiet work of building something.

THE CAST who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
JH
Joe Harasymiak Head coach
SM
Shane Montgomery Out
CFB INDEX READ · our read
Joe Harasymiak inherits a 0-12 program with 76% production returning — UMass's fourth coach in five seasons now faces the task of proving its identity.
Source of record: Joe Harasymiak took over as Massachusetts's head coach, replacing Shane Montgomery — the program's third head coach in five seasons.

Every line is a door. Evidence opens in place — verbatim outlet headlines for news sources, verbatim fan text attributed to the community not the individual (never a username). Works with JavaScript off.

WHERE THE ROOM STANDS NOW — TAP TO EXPAND
The Skeptics no dissentThe Dominoes active
🧐THE SKEPTICSNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.

The analytical counter: rankings, results and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.

Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.

🔗THE DOMINOES13 downstream moves — the hire's knock-on effects.

The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.

“Massachusetts Football Playoff Overhaul Advances as MIAA Committee Approves Super 8 Proposal”
Sports Illustrated · 2026-06-18 · read ↗
“2028 Top Football Defensive Line Massachusetts Recruits”
On3 · 2026-06-10 · read ↗
DEVELOPING · MASSACHUSETTS · TRANSFER PORTAL Confidence

Massachusetts signed a top-62 transfer-portal class — 35 additions headlined by Brandon Rose (QB) from Utah and Grant Jordan (QB) from Yale.

Massachusetts signed a top-62 transfer-portal class — 35 additions headlined by Brandon Rose (QB) from Utah and Grant Jordan (QB) from Yale. It is a top-2 portal class in the Mid-American this cycle.

near-unanimous belief where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers3 bull takes
💬 fans: 7% volume
DEVELOPING1 new this week
3 days agoSherrone Moore, Michigan land running back transfer portal commitment — On3
Apr 9UMass football reshapes defense with 2026 transfer class — Massachusetts Daily Collegian
Apr 2UMass football reloads offense with 10 transfer additions — Massachusetts Daily Collegian
Mar 6QB Logan Inagawa transfer commits from Drake — MAJOR
THE CAST who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Brandon Rose
Brandon Rose QB · Utah
Grant Jordan
Grant Jordan QB · Yale
CFB INDEX READ · our read
William Watson III (QB) arrives at UMass as the headline addition in a top-2 MAC portal class — Harasymiak's first step toward escaping 0-12.
Source of record: Massachusetts signed a top-62 transfer-portal class — 35 additions headlined by Brandon Rose (QB) from Utah and Grant Jordan (QB) from Yale — a top-2 portal class in the Mid-American this cycle.

Every line is a door. Evidence opens in place — verbatim outlet headlines for news sources, verbatim fan text attributed to the community not the individual (never a username). Works with JavaScript off.

HOW EACH ROOM REACTED — TAP TO EXPAND
The Believers bullishThe Skeptics no dissentThe Boards thin
📣THE BELIEVERS3 bullish/recruiting items — the case it's working.

The optimistic read: recruiting wins, momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.

“Sherrone Moore, Michigan land running back transfer portal commitment”
On3 · 2026-06-19 · read ↗
“UMass football reshapes defense with 2026 transfer class”
Massachusetts Daily Collegian · 2026-04-09 · read ↗
“UMass football reloads offense with 10 transfer additions”
Massachusetts Daily Collegian · 2026-04-02 · read ↗
🧐THE SKEPTICSNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.

The analytical counter: rankings, results and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.

Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.

💬THE BOARDS6 board mentions — too thin to call a stance.

Only 6 of 90 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.

"I’m a junior transferring in from out of state into the college of engineering. I didn’t know much about the different dorm cultures, so I signed up for a Sylvan Transfer RAP witho"
r/umass fan
"Hi. I'm a freshman BMB major who will be attending UMass in person next fall. I filled out the housing application and received a few messages in the portal from people who were in"
r/umass fan

The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice. Per-event for/against lands when event-level sentiment coverage is wired.

Act III

Last Season Reviewed

2025 season · tap to expand

Recent Form · last 10 games

Hibernating

Zero of five. Reset territory.

Streak L10Last 5 · 0-5Last 10 · 0-10

Season Standing · 2025 · 0-12

FBS sub-.500

UMass: Below .500 in FBS play. The rebuild bar.

Sub-FBSBuildingBowlRankedContenderPlayoff

Mid-American Standing · 2025

13th in the Mid-American

UMass is 13th of 13 in the Mid-American at 0-12. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.

#ProgramRecord
1Western Michigan10-4
2Ohio9-4
3Toledo8-5
4Sacramento State7-5
5Central Michigan7-6
6Miami (OH)7-7
7Akron5-7
8Buffalo5-7
9Kent State5-7
10Ball State4-8
11Bowling Green4-8
12Eastern Michigan4-8
13Massachusetts0-12

Schedule Strength · UMass · 2025

Balanced

Average opponent win rate 47% across 12 finalized games. 1 AP top-25 opponent played (Missouri).

Opp Win %0.479
Top-251
Top-100

Top Players · 2025

2025
1. Tyler Martin LB 97.0 tot (def)
2. Derrieon Craig DL 78.0 tot (def)
3. Zeraun Daniel S 75.0 tot (def)
4. Timmy Hinspeter LB 69.0 tot (def)
5. Kendall Bournes S 58.0 tot (def)

Moment of the Year · UMass · 2025

Lost 6-42 at Missouri

Week 5 of 2025. A reckoning loss — the data point the next season must answer.

Decisive Marginvs AP #20

From the Archive — UMass

2024: Lost 9-67 at Colorado School Of Mines

In 2024, the program lost 9-67 at Colorado School Of Mines — a stinging road result, 58 points either way.

Sam the Minuteman is scouting. Signal returns when the conference calendar cranks up.