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FBS CONFERENCE · 2025 SEASON

Sun Belt

#9 overall#9 in FBSRR50 +13.2Upper strength +16.314 teamsTop 25 teams 3

THE LONG WAIT · 2025

The App State Belt

Appalachian State beat Michigan in 2007 as an FCS program — the most famous FBS upset in history. When App State moved to FBS and joined the Sun Belt, it brought the conference its first Top-25 ranking (2019) and consistent double-digit win seasons. Coastal Carolina went 11-1 in 2020 and nearly reached a New Year's Six bowl. James Madison jumped from FCS in 2022 and was immediately competitive. The Sun Belt is not a Power conference, but it has produced more Top-25 finishes per capita than any other Group of 5 conference in the CFP era, and it is not done.

The Sun Belt has flirted with a New Year's Six berth for five straight seasons. Coastal Carolina came closest. Does 2026 finally produce the undefeated G5 champion the committee cannot argue with, or does the conference continue to finish one loss short of the Cotton Bowl conversation?

FBS14 teamsRace: CFP Access

Sun Belt · 2026 Season Preview

Three Things to Watch

The Conference KingApp State: Built for This Conference

Appalachian State has won six Sun Belt titles since joining FBS in 2014. They beat Michigan as an FCS program, they beat Penn State in 2019 as an FBS program, and they have been the conference's most consistent double-digit win program for a decade. Nobody in the Sun Belt has the coaching infrastructure, the recruiting pipeline, or the game-day culture that Boone, North Carolina has built. If the Sun Belt gets a New Year's Six bid in 2026, the odds heavily favor it coming through the Mountaineers.

The ChallengerJames Madison: From FCS Giant to FBS Contender

James Madison won the FCS championship in 2016 and 2017, then moved to FBS in 2022 and was immediately bowl-eligible. The Dukes brought FCS-level program discipline into the Sun Belt and went 11-2 in their third FBS season. They have App State's number on their schedule in 2026, and they believe they are the program that can finally knock the Mountaineers off the conference title.

Wild CardCoastal Carolina's Ceiling Was Real

Coastal Carolina went 11-1 in 2020 and was a single loss away from the Cotton Bowl. That season proved the Sun Belt's top program can legitimately compete for a New Year's Six berth on merit. They have not replicated it — but the infrastructure is there. A returning QB and a healthy offensive line entering 2026 puts them back in the conversation for the conference title game and, if everything goes right, the one game that puts them in Pasadena.

Conference Standings · Sun Belt · 2025

Standings

# Team Conf Overall Pwr Last 5
1James Madison9–012–2+20.1
2Old Dominion6–210–3+19.2
3Troy6–38–6+12.9
4Southern Miss5–37–6+12.3
5Arkansas State5–37–6+12.3
6Louisiana5–36–7+12.0
7Coastal Carolina5–36–7+10.3
8Georgia Southern5–47–6+13.1
9Texas State3–57–6+17.5
10Marshall3–55–7+13.5
11South Alabama3–54–8+11.8
12App State2–75–8+10.0
13UL Monroe1–73–9+9.5
14Georgia State0–81–11+9.0

Conference record determines standing. Power = neutral-field pts vs. all-level average. Last 5 = most recent game results.

Projected Standings · Sun Belt · 2026

Win Projection

Preseason model — odds of winning at least N conference games, from current power ratings. Tiers rank projected strength; AVG = expected conference wins.

# Team W–L PWR AVG ≥8≥7≥6≥5≥4≥3≥2≥1
Favorites
1James Madison5–3+7.25.341947759298✓✓
2Old Dominion5–3+6.35.231641698997✓✓
3Louisiana Tech4–4+1.64.3151944719098✓
Challengers
4Marshall4–4+0.64.141639688898✓
5Troy4–4+0.04.031335638597✓
6Georgia Southern4–4+0.23.931233618496✓
7Southern Miss4–4-0.63.7292855809599
The Field
8Arkansas State4–4-0.64.141640688897✓
9Louisiana4–4-0.94.141638668797✓
10South Alabama4–4-1.13.931334628596✓
11Coastal Carolina3–5-2.63.4162146749299
Rebuilding
12UL Monroe3–5-3.43.5172348759399
13App State3–5-2.93.4162146749299
14Georgia State3–5-3.93.1141639678998

Conference Power · FBS

Where We Stand

# Conference Avg Power vs Focal Top Team
1SEC
+15.1
0–9Ole Miss
2Big Ten
+14.8
0–4Indiana
3ACC
+14.4
1–3Miami
4Big 12
+14.2
0–2Texas Tech
5American Athletic
+13.6
4–6North Texas
6Mountain West
+13.3
0–2San Diego State
7Sun BeltYou are here
+13.2
—James Madison
8Mid-American
+12.7
2–1Toledo
9Conference USA
+12.4
7–7Western Kentucky

Round-robin power = strength of schedule-adjusted conference average, points vs. all-level average team. Record = Sun Belt's record vs. that conference across all games this season.

Championship market · 2025

Sun Belt Title odds

#TeamBest oddsBooks
1James Madison+2006bk
2Old Dominion+4006bk
3Louisiana+7506bk
4Troy+7506bk
5Louisiana Tech+8506bk
6Arkansas State+10006bk
7Marshall+9806bk
8South Alabama+12006bk
9Appalachian State+13006bk
10Georgia Southern+13006bk
11Coastal Carolina+18006bk
12Southern Miss+30006bk
13Louisiana-Monroe+35006bk
14Georgia State+50006bk

Sportsbook consensus — best odds across multiple books · 2026-06-22 · American odds (e.g. +450 means bet $100 to win $450)

Sun Belt is outperforming its raw power profile. The league body of work is stronger than the market would expect.

Conference Snapshot

RR50+13.2
Upper Strength+16.3
Median Power+12.6
Resume Pulse68.5
Avg ATS48.5%
Wins vs Market-0.30
Top-to-Middle Gap7.8
Combined Record88-92

`RR50`, `Upper Strength`, and `Median Power` are shown on the same public power scale as the rest of the site: points on a neutral field versus the average all-level NCAA team. Very small affiliations are gently regressed toward their subdivision baseline so a one-team outlier does not hijack the entire conference board.

Sun Belt Team Board

The league stack, sorted by predictive strength. Power is shown as neutral-field points versus the all-level average team, while resume is shown on a 0-100 season score.

Rank Team Record Power Resume ATS Wins vs Market Recent Form
#7 James Madison 12-2 +20.1 99 9-5 +1.29 3-1 over the last 4 (W13 W14 W15 L17)
#11 Old Dominion 10-3 +19.2 96 8-5 +0.77 4-0 over the last 4 (W12 W13 W14 W16)
#20 Texas State 7-6 +17.5 85 5-8 -1.39 4-0 over the last 4 (W12 W13 W14 W18)
#80 Marshall 5-7 +13.5 69 7-5 -1.53 1-3 over the last 4 (L11 W12 L13 L14)
#85 Georgia Southern 7-6 +13.1 72 7-5 +0.90 3-1 over the last 4 (W12 L13 W14 W18)
#87 Troy 8-6 +12.9 85 9-5 +1.52 2-2 over the last 4 (W13 W14 L15 L16)
#99 Southern Miss 7-6 +12.3 79 5-7 -0.86 0-4 over the last 4 (L12 L13 L14 L17)
#100 Arkansas State 7-6 +12.3 79 8-5 +1.44 2-2 over the last 4 (L11 L13 W14 W16)
#109 Louisiana 6-7 +12.0 64 6-7 -0.40 3-1 over the last 4 (W11 W13 W14 L16)
#115 South Alabama 4-8 +11.8 53 5-7 -2.44 2-2 over the last 4 (L10 W12 W13 L14)
#159 Coastal Carolina 6-7 +10.3 65 6-7 +1.62 0-4 over the last 4 (L12 L13 L14 L18)
#167 App State 5-8 +10.0 55 6-7 -1.60 1-3 over the last 4 (L12 W13 L14 L18)
#182 UL Monroe 3-9 +9.5 33 4-8 -1.14 0-4 over the last 4 (L10 L12 L13 L14)
#194 Georgia State 1-11 +9.0 25 2-10 -2.33 0-4 over the last 4 (L11 L12 L13 L14)

Biggest Risers

Rank movement since the most recent refresh.

No meaningful risers from the last refresh.

Biggest Faders

Teams whose stock dropped most since the last refresh.

No meaningful faders from the last refresh.

Depth & Parity

How wide the league's power spread runs from top to bottom.

Top Rank#7 James Madison
Bottom Rank#194 Georgia State
Top-to-Middle Gap7.8
Power Spread3.4
Top 25 Teams3
Top 100 Teams8

Moderately layered — the league has real tiers but no runaway gap between them. Power Spread is the standard deviation of neutral-field power across league members.