FBS CONFERENCE · 2025 SEASON
THE LONG WAIT · 2025
The Mountain West lost Boise State, Colorado State, and Fresno State to the Big 12 and other leagues in the realignment waves of 2024–26. The conference that produced Chris Petersen's 92-12 Broncos dynasty now has to rebuild its identity from scratch.
Can the Mountain West rebuild enough depth to stay competitive as a Group of Five conference, or is a slow fade to irrelevance the realistic path?
Conference Standings · Mountain West · 2025
| # | Team | Conf |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boise State | 7–2 |
| 2 | San Diego State | 6–2 |
| 3 | New Mexico | 6–2 |
| 4 | UNLV | 6–3 |
| 5 | Fresno State | 5–3 |
| 6 | Hawai'i | 5–3 |
| 7 | Utah State | 4–4 |
| 8 | Air Force | 3–5 |
| 9 | Wyoming | 2–6 |
| 10 | Nevada | 2–6 |
| 11 | San José State | 2–6 |
| 12 | Colorado State | 1–7 |
Conference record determines standing. Power = neutral-field pts vs. all-level average. Last 5 = most recent game results.
Projected Standings · Mountain West · 2026
Preseason model — odds of winning at least N conference games, from current power ratings. Tiers rank projected strength; AVG = expected conference wins.
| # | Team | W–L | PWR | AVG | ≥8 | ≥7 | ≥6 | ≥5 | ≥4 | ≥3 | ≥2 | ≥1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favorites | ||||||||||||
| 1 | North Dakota State | 5–3 | +3.7 | 4.7 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 57 | 81 | 95 | 99 | ✓ |
| 2 | UNLV | 5–3 | +3.4 | 4.6 | 1 | 8 | 27 | 54 | 79 | 94 | 99 | ✓ |
| Challengers | ||||||||||||
| 3 | New Mexico | 5–3 | +2.5 | 4.5 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 50 | 76 | 92 | 98 | ✓ |
| 4 | Hawai'i | 4–4 | +1.6 | 4.3 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 46 | 72 | 90 | 98 | ✓ |
| 5 | Air Force | 4–4 | -0.5 | 3.9 | 3 | 13 | 34 | 62 | 85 | 96 | ✓ | |
| The Field | ||||||||||||
| 6 | Northern Illinois | 4–4 | -2.0 | 3.6 | 2 | 9 | 27 | 54 | 79 | 94 | 99 | |
| 7 | Wyoming | 4–4 | -1.5 | 3.6 | 2 | 9 | 27 | 54 | 79 | 94 | 99 | |
| 8 | Nevada | 3–5 | -2.1 | 3.5 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 51 | 77 | 93 | 99 | |
| Rebuilding | ||||||||||||
| 9 | San José State | 4–4 | -2.4 | 3.6 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 52 | 78 | 94 | 99 | |
| 10 | UTEP | 3–5 | -2.7 | 3.5 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 50 | 77 | 93 | 99 | |
Conference Power · FBS
| # | Conference | Avg Power |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEC | |
| 2 | Big Ten | |
| 3 | ACC | |
| 4 | Big 12 | |
| 5 | American Athletic | |
| 6 | Mountain WestYou are here | |
| 7 | Sun Belt | |
| 8 | Mid-American | |
| 9 | Conference USA |
Round-robin power = strength of schedule-adjusted conference average, points vs. all-level average team. Record = Mountain West's record vs. that conference across all games this season.
Championship market · 2025
| # | Team | Best odds | Books |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Mexico | +200 | 5bk |
| 2 | UNLV | +220 | 5bk |
| 3 | Hawai'i | +400 | 5bk |
| 4 | Air Force | +500 | 5bk |
| 5 | San Jose State | +1600 | 5bk |
| 6 | Wyoming | +1800 | 5bk |
| 7 | Nevada | +2800 | 5bk |
| 8 | Northern Illinois | +6000 | 5bk |
| 9 | UTEP | +7500 | 5bk |
Sportsbook consensus — best odds across multiple books · 2026-06-22 · American odds (e.g. +450 means bet $100 to win $450)
Mountain West reads like a weekly gauntlet. The middle of the league is strong enough that contenders do not get many breathers.
The league stack, sorted by predictive strength. Power is shown as neutral-field points versus the all-level average team, while resume is shown on a 0-100 season score.
| Rank | Team | Record | Power | Resume | ATS | Wins vs Market | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #33 | San Diego State | 9-4 | +16.4 | 93 | 9-3 | +0.99 | 2-2 over the last 4 (W12 W13 L14 L18) |
| #40 | Fresno State | 9-4 | +16.0 | 91 | 7-6 | +1.63 | 3-1 over the last 4 (W12 L13 W14 W18) |
| #45 | UNLV | 10-4 | +15.6 | 93 | 7-7 | +1.06 | 2-2 over the last 4 (W13 W14 L15 L17) |
| #51 | Boise State | 9-5 | +15.4 | 91 | 8-5 | -0.95 | 3-1 over the last 4 (W13 W14 W15 L16) |
| #58 | New Mexico | 9-4 | +14.8 | 91 | 7-6 | +2.10 | 3-1 over the last 4 (W12 W13 W14 L17) |
| #68 | Hawai'i | 9-4 | +13.9 | 90 | 9-4 | +2.38 | 3-1 over the last 4 (W11 L13 W14 W17) |
| #83 | Utah State | 6-7 | +13.4 | 72 | 10-3 | -0.41 | 1-3 over the last 4 (L12 W13 L14 L17) |
| #114 | Air Force | 4-8 | +11.8 | 66 | 5-7 | -1.97 | 2-2 over the last 4 (W11 L12 L13 W14) |
| #145 | Wyoming | 4-8 | +10.8 | 51 | 5-7 | -1.51 | 0-4 over the last 4 (L10 L12 L13 L14) |
| #161 | Nevada | 3-9 | +10.2 | 41 | 5-6 | -0.76 | 2-2 over the last 4 (L11 W12 W13 L14) |
| #170 | San José State | 3-9 | +9.9 | 31 | 4-8 | -3.42 | 0-4 over the last 4 (L11 L12 L13 L14) |
| #201 | Colorado State | 2-10 | +8.6 | 25 | 4-8 | -2.96 | 0-4 over the last 4 (L11 L12 L13 L14) |
Rank movement since the most recent refresh.
Teams whose stock dropped most since the last refresh.
Who beat the number most often this season.
| Team | Cover Rate | Record |
|---|---|---|
| Utah State | 76.9% | 10-3 ATS |
| San Diego State | 75.0% | 9-3 ATS |
| Hawai'i | 69.2% | 9-4 ATS |
| Boise State | 61.5% | 8-5 ATS |
| Fresno State | 53.8% | 7-6 ATS |
Win total minus the market's implied expectation, by team.
| Team | Wins vs Market | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Hawai'i | +2.38 | 13 lined games |
| New Mexico | +2.10 | 13 lined games |
| Fresno State | +1.63 | 13 lined games |
| UNLV | +1.06 | 14 lined games |
| San Diego State | +0.99 | 13 lined games |
How wide the league's power spread runs from top to bottom.