CFB Index
June 22, 2026 · Dead Period · Heritage Window · 2026 Outlook

Wyoming

4-8 2025 final

Wyoming is the Mountain West program whose 7,220-ft War Memorial Stadium altitude + Craig Bohl 2017 11-2 + Josh Allen 2017 #6 NFL draft define what Laramie-frontier-football looks like.

Cowboy Joe rides patient.

Record
4-8
win% .333
SP+
-2.8
AP / Coaches
Bowl Status
Season closed
Dead PeriodOffseasonPatientPost-loss — diagnostic
The Long Wait·Offseason

Wyoming plays the highest home games in major college football — 7,220 feet up in Laramie, where the thin air and the cold are the program's best recruit, and 'Cowboy Tough' is a literal description.

Title DroughtSince 1988 · 37 yrs

Jay Sawvel returns for 2026 after a 4-8 (2-6 Mountain West) second season that missed a bowl. Wyoming stays in the Mountain West as a legacy anchor — with New Mexico, UNLV, and Air Force — while Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno…

offseason · quiet
Read the full program story ↓

Wyoming plays its home games at 7,220 feet — War Memorial Stadium is the highest venue in major college football, where the thin air and the high-plains cold are the program's most reliable asset. After a 4-8 season in 2025, they need every advantage Laramie provides.

There is no other Division I program in Wyoming. The Cowboys are the entire state's football — no rival flagship, no pro franchise, just the high-plains altitude and the Cowboy Joe pony circling the field after scores. Josh Allen came to Laramie with almost no recruiting interest and left as the seventh overall NFL draft pick. Craig Bohl built a decade of bowl trips from a roster of overlooked players who became exactly what the program promised: tougher than the recruiting ranking suggested. That identity is real, and it is what makes the 2025 backslide sting.

Jay Sawvel's second year went 4-8 in the Mountain West, no bowl game, the kind of season that makes a fanbase recalibrate. The timing is genuinely complicated: Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State, and Utah State are all leaving the Mountain West for the rebuilt Pac-12 in 2026, which thins the competition at the top of a league Wyoming should be contending in. UTEP, Northern Illinois, Grand Canyon, and UC Davis join instead. If there was ever a year for Wyoming to seize a wide-open Mountain West, it is 2026 — and if Sawvel can't do it with a depleted conference, the patience question gets louder in Laramie. Sophomore quarterback Kaden Anderson runs the offense.

The 2026 question is not subtle: can Sawvel coach Wyoming back into a bowl game in a Mountain West that just lost its biggest names? The Cowboy Tough identity has always been about doing more with less. What the schedule will answer is whether 2025 was a building-year stumble or an early sign that the Bohl-era model doesn't transfer. Laramie, at 7,220 feet, will provide the hardest possible home environment. The Cowboys have to be good enough to use it.

How they play

Cowboy Tough — physical, cold-weather, high-altitude football that prizes grit and efficiency over recruiting-rank upside. Wyoming runs a pro-style base with enough spread wrinkles to create space for athletic playmakers, built around physical lines and a defense that takes pride in the altitude advantage. War Memorial Stadium is the most genuinely unusual home field in the Mountain West: visitors arrive short of breath, play in cold they didn't prepare for, and face a crowd that understands exactly what they're dealing with. The Cowboys have won games in Laramie that shouldn't have been winnable on paper.

program outlook · as of 2026-06-14
How They Play · 2025

Wyoming fields a struggling offense behind a strong defense.

OffensePoor9th pct EPA/play · FBS
DefenseStrong77th pct EPA allowed · FBS

Identity computed from opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate, explosiveness, and run/pass volume — percentiles vs all FBS.

Offseason

69 days

until kickoff · Sun Aug 30 · 17:00 UTC

Act I

The 2026 Outlook

2026 Preview Thesis 2026 Evidence-validated

Wyoming's 2026 Season Projected to Reach 9-4 with Bowl Game Appearance

With a balanced portal churn and high continuity, Wyoming is positioned for a competitive season. The team's transfer additions and returning talent provide a solid foundation for improvement.

  • Roster reloadWyoming has a transfer_in_total of 19 and transfer_out_total of 16, indicating a balanced portal churn.
Data as of 2026-06-20 · Validated against program evidence

Offseason Pulse · Wyoming

Roster · Recruiting · Portal

Recruiting Class

#89 nationally

2025 cycle · 247 composite rating 159.1

Outside the recruiting top 60. Roster gaps must close via portal.

Returning Production

77%

2025 cycle · CFBD weighted

Top-tier continuity. QB returns.

Talent Composite

#117 nationally

2025 cycle · 247 composite 489.3

Outside the talent top 60. The wins must be earned in development.

Portal Movement

19 in / 16 out

2026 cycle · in 19 / out 16

Incoming and outgoing movement are tracked separately in Roster Reload.

Wyoming · the story right now 1 storyline developing

What Wyoming's offseason is really about

the open questionwhere does it go from here?

this cycle✓ factnew

Wyoming enters 2025 rated No. 110 in SP+ (-11.3).

the contexttop-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back
why it mattersWyoming enters 2025 at No. 110 in SP+ — top-quintile returning production can't mask Jay Sawvel's 4-8 record in his second year under the Laramie altitude.
narrative tension · our read

Roster Reload - Wyoming

2026 snapshot - 2026-06-21
Returning Production77%High continuity
Portal Additions19Primary repair: EDGE
Portal Losses16Primary pressure: RB
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#89Depth class (#89)
Sin 3 - Anthony Beavers Jr.4.28out 2 - Caleb Merritt3.49Upgrade
IOLin 3 - Jason Maciejczak3.49out 2 - Wes King3.60Upgrade
EDGEin 3 - Jack Dunkley3.30out 2 - Axel Ramazani3.49Upgrade
RBin 2 - Diore Hubbard3.50out 3 - Patrick Broadway II3.49Even
CBin 2 - Logan Mackey3.30out 2 - Tyrese Boss3.60Downgrade
DLin 1 - Ja'Quan Redfern3.40out 2 - Lucas Samsula3.60Downgrade

The Pulse on Wyoming

Archive · Late Spring · 600 mentions · medium confidence
74
Δ +0.0 vs last wk
600 mentions this week · conversation velocity

What moved it — offseason · last 30 days

June Dead-period quiet — official-visit + heritage window
Camp Fall camp ~40 days out
"Pokes" — Wyoming fanbase · recurring line

Five Lenses

What people are saying right now

Aspiration Ladder

Brief Part III §33.4 · Wyoming

8 wins

Above the program's recent baseline.

Beat a top-10 opponent

Statement win that reshapes recruiting.

Conference championship game appearance

Plausible breakthrough.

NY6 bowlLocked

Beyond modern reach without a transformative year.

Wyoming · Next-Season Outcome Band

Floor / Base / Ceiling

floor4-8No postseason.
base7-6Bowl game.
ceiling9-4Bowl game.

Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.

Market outlook

Season expectations

Win total3 booksO/U 5.5
CFP championship#117 in field+100000
Mountain West title#6 in market+1800

Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-06-22

Recruiting Reload - Top 3 commits

2026 class
★★★☆☆
Jonathan Pearcy
IOL · Liberty, MO
#1750 national
★★★☆☆
Jordan Styles
WR · The Woodlands, TX
#1924 national
★★★☆☆
Taylor Hasselbeck
QB · Nashville, TN
#2163 national

Recruiting Footprint · 2026

16
MO · 4TX · 3CO · 2WY · 2AZ · 1IL · 1NE · 1NV · 1+1 more

MO leads the 2026 class with 4 commits. National footprint reaching 9 states.

Where they recruit · 2023-2026

60 signees across 15 states, 2023-2026. TX leads the pull.

MEVTNHWAIDMTNDMNWIMINYMAORNVWYSDIAILINOHPANJCTCAUTCONEMOKYWVVAMDDERIAZNMKSARTNNCSCDCOKLAMSALGAAKHITXFL
Source CFB Index · player_recruiting_profiles
Act II

Who We Are

Program Prestige · Wyoming

Power Program

Power Program — consistent P4 presence and regional brand strength.

Historical peak: Tier 4 · National Program (1967 10-1 + Sugar Bowl appearance + #6 final AP under Lloyd Eaton; 2017 8-5 + Famous Idaho Potato Bowl + Josh Allen as Heisman dark horse under Craig Bohl). Current tier: Tier 3.

T1Regional
T2Mid-Major
T3Power
T4National
T5Blue Blood
T6Dynasty
T7All-Time

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank Wyoming

CFB Index

#113

-2.8

SP+

#110

-11.3

FPI

#110

-11.5

Elo

#105

1295

SRS

#107

-10.7

The national models put Wyoming between 105th and 110th nationally — the CFB Index is more skeptical, at 113th.

National rank of 136 FBS teams · 2025 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Index ranked by rating.

Most Similar Programs · Wyoming

Reads Like

Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.

Coaching Era · Wyoming

Jay Sawvel

Jay Sawvel in year 2 of the rebuild. The methodology is taking shape.

Era Jay Sawvel · 2024–presentPrev: Craig Bohl (2020–2023)
2 years · era

Rituals

Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.

War Memorial Stadium Altitude (7,220 ft)

since 1950

War Memorial Stadium sits at 7,220 ft — the highest-elevation FBS football stadium in the country. The thin air + Wyoming frontier setting + 30,000 capacity + the wind-and-cold game-day factor create a venue uniquely brutal for visiting teams. Visiting fans cite the altitude + the cold as defining the experience.

Josh Allen 2014-2017 Development

since 2014

Josh Allen — JuCo transfer to Wyoming 2014, #7 NFL draft 2018 to Buffalo Bills — is the program's most-iconic recent player. The Allen era (2014-2017) + Craig Bohl's recruiting + the cold-weather-QB-development narrative make Allen permanent Wyoming canon. His Buffalo Bills MVP-contender career retroactively elevates the recruiting story.

Cowboy Joe Mascot

since 1950

Cowboy Joe — Wyoming's costumed mascot since 1950 — captures the program's frontier-cowboy identity. The mascot's pony + the brown-and-gold colors + the cowboy-hat-and-spurs imagery anchor every game-day visual. Wyoming football identity = cowboy identity uniquely.

Fanbase Health Index · Wyoming · medium confidence

Growing (60)

DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 4-8 (33% win rate)48
Volume — 127 effective signal-N72

Home-Field Advantage · Wyoming · 2018-present

Strong

57% home win rate vs 33% on the road. margin runs +9.8 better at home.

Home19-14Away11-22

Chronicle Visuals

5 deterministic SVG · provenance-gated
2026 preview

Among the most continuous rosters into 2025 — 77% back, anchored by the qb room, only offense to settle.

Among the most continuous rosters into 2025 — 77% back, anchored by the qb room, only offense to settle.Offense is the stress point for 2025. Source: CFB Index — returning production vs the FBS average (dashed = league avg) · 2025 · high confidenceRETURNING PRODUCTION · 2025Among the most continuous rosters into2025 — 77% back, anchored by the qbroom, only offense to settle.QB roomQB room: 100% returning100%OffenseOffense: 77% returning77%OverallOverall: 77% returning77%▸ Offense is the stress point for 2025.Source: CFB Index — returning production vs the FBS average(dashed = league avg) · 2025 · high confidence
model-confident
2026 preview

The portal upgraded the ATH room but opened a hole at RB.

The portal upgraded the ATH room but opened a hole at RB.Net +3 · upgraded ATH · hole at RB. Source: CFB Index — transfer portal in/out by position (count) · 2026 · 19 in / 16 out · high confidenceTRANSFER PORTAL · 2026The portal upgraded the ATH room butopened a hole at RB.OUTINATHATH: 1 in1net +1CBCB: 2 out2CB: 2 in2net 0DLDL: 2 out2DL: 1 in1net -1EDGEEDGE: 2 out2EDGE: 3 in3net +1IOLIOL: 2 out2IOL: 3 in3net +1LBLB: 1 out1net -1LSLS: 1 in1net +1QBQB: 1 out1QB: 1 in1net 0RBRB: 3 out3RB: 2 in2net -1SS: 2 out2S: 3 in3net +1TETE: 1 in1net +1WRWR: 1 out1WR: 1 in1net 0▸ Net +3 · upgraded ATH · hole at RB.Source: CFB Index — transfer portal in/out by position(count) · 2026 · 19 in / 16 out · high confidence
model-confident
2026 preview

Wyoming sits where recruit talent and draft yield largely match.

Wyoming sits where recruit talent and draft yield largely match.Talent 11th, draft yield 20th among 132 programs. Source: CFB Index — recruit talent vs draft-pick yield · 2025 · 132 programs · high confidenceWYOMING · TALENT YIELDWyoming sits where recruit talent anddraft yield largely match.Recruit talent (percentile) →Draft yield (percentile) →Georgia — 99 / 99 pctileBaylor — 73 / 35 pctileWashington State — 28 / 64 pctileCentral Michigan — 8 / 43 pctileOld Dominion — 7 / 51 pctileWyoming — 11 / 20 pctileWyomingWashington StateOld DominionCentral MichiganGeorgiaBaylor▸ Talent 11th, draft yield 20th among 132 programs.Source: CFB Index — recruit talent vs draft-pick yield ·2025 · 132 programs · high confidence
model-confident
2024 season

Calm on the surface in 2024 — but the weekly trend ran the wrong way.

Calm on the surface in 2024 — but the weekly trend ran the wrong way.calm on the surface, but trending the wrong way. Source: CFB Index — per-game power-rating swings · 2024 · 10 games · high confidenceTHE WEEK-TO-WEEK RIDE · 2024Calm on the surface in 2024 — but theweekly trend ran the wrong way.Game 1: -0.27 power swingGame 2: -0.27 power swingGame 3: -1.92 power swingGame 4: -1.92 power swingGame 5: -0.54 power swingGame 6: -0.54 power swingGame 7: -0.93 power swingGame 8: -0.93 power swingGame 9: +0.40 power swingGame 10: +0.40 power swing-1.9▲ stock-up week▼ stock-down week▸ calm on the surface, but trending the wrong way.Source: CFB Index — per-game power-rating swings · 2024 · 10games · high confidence
model-confident
2024 season

W 31-19 vs Air Force leads the season's top 5 results by combined power and résumé delta.

W 31-19 vs Air Force leads the season's top 5 results by combined power and résumé delta.W 31-19 vs Air Force is the biggest mover. Source: CFB Index — results ranked by combined power + résumé impact · top 5 games · medium confidenceSTATEMENT WINS · TOP 5 RESULTSW 31-19 vs Air Force leads the season'stop 5 results by combined power andrésumé delta.W 31-19 vs Air ForceW 31-19 vs Air Force — +0.70 résumé impactW 31-19 vs Air Force — +0.70 résumé impact+0.70L 14-34 vs BYUL 14-34 vs BYU — -0.18 résumé impact-0.18L 7-48 vs Arizona StateL 7-48 vs Arizona State — -0.27 résumé impact-0.27L 17-44 vs North TexasL 17-44 vs North Texas — -0.93 résumé impact-0.93L 13-17 vs IdahoL 13-17 vs Idaho — -2.22 résumé impact-2.22▸ W 31-19 vs Air Force is the biggest mover.Source: CFB Index — results ranked by combined power +résumé impact · top 5 games · medium confidence
solid read
THE SAVANT CARD · Wyoming · 2025

Wyoming reads strongest in passing epa allowed (top 17%) and success rate allowed (top 22%); the crux lives in epa / play, where Wyoming sits at the 8th percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.04
9th
Success Rate +0.37
14th
Explosive Plays +1.20
24th
Rushing EPA -0.01
13th

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed +0.08
77th
Success Rate Allowed +0.38
78th
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.24
58th
Passing EPA Allowed +0.13
84th

hidden math · special situations

Passing EPA +0.11
12th
Rushing EPA Allowed +0.04
68th
ELITE · 90+STRONG · 70+AVERAGE · 40-70CONCERN · 10-40BOTTOM · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · opponent-adjusted · 12 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 139 FBS peers
How the room reactedreal evidence · tap rooms to explore
FOLLOWING NOW · WYOMING · SEASON OUTLOOK Confidence

Wyoming enters the season in the middle of the pack. That's the whole tension.

Wyoming enters 2025 rated No. 110 in SP+ (-11.3). It is top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back. SP+ is a tempo-free efficiency model — it describes what the program HAS done. The season is the test of whether it's still true. Preview coverage is split — believers and skeptics are reading the same data differently.

CFB INDEX READ · our read
Wyoming enters 2025 at No. 110 in SP+ — top-quintile returning production can't mask Jay Sawvel's 4-8 record in his second year under the Laramie altitude.
Source of record: Wyoming enters 2025 rated No. 110 in SP+ (-11.3) — top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back.

Every line is a door. Evidence opens in place — verbatim outlet headlines for news sources, verbatim fan text attributed to the community not the individual (never a username). Works with JavaScript off.

HOW EACH ROOM IS REACTING — TAP TO EXPAND
The Believers bullishThe Skeptics dissent
📣THE BELIEVERS1 bullish/recruiting items — the case it's working.

The optimistic read: recruiting wins, momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.

“Best and Busts in Wyoming Football Recruiting Since 1999”
7220sports.com · 2026-06-17 · read ↗
“Welcome to Wyoming Cowboys Football: Taylor Hasselbeck”
KGAB · 2026-06-22 · read ↗
“Welcome to Wyoming Cowboys Football: Jarell Gary”
7220sports.com · 2026-06-19 · read ↗
🧐THE SKEPTICS“Josh Adams on Wyoming HOF induction: 'Remember me as Cowboy toug” — the real counter.

The analytical counter: rankings, results and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.

“Josh Adams on Wyoming HOF induction: 'Remember me as Cowboy tough'”
WyomingNews.com · 2026-06-13 · read ↗
Act III

Last Season Reviewed

2025 season · tap to expand

Recent Form · last 10 games

Cold

One of five. The film room is busy this week.

Streak L4Last 5 · 1-4Last 10 · 2-8

Season Standing · 2025 · 4-8

FBS sub-.500

Wyoming: Below .500 in FBS play. The rebuild bar.

Sub-FBSBuildingBowlRankedContenderPlayoff

Mountain West Standing · 2025

6th in the Mountain West

Wyoming sits 6th of 10 in the Mountain West at 4-8. Mid-conference — moves up or down depend on rivalry results and the late-season closing run.

#ProgramRecord
1North Dakota State12-1
2UNLV10-4
3Hawai'i9-4
4New Mexico9-4
5Air Force4-8
6Wyoming4-8
7Nevada3-9
8Northern Illinois3-9
9San José State3-9
10UTEP2-10

Schedule Strength · Wyoming · 2025

Balanced

Average opponent win rate 46% across 12 finalized games. 1 AP top-25 opponent played (Utah).

Opp Win %0.463
Top-251
Top-100

Top Players · 2025

2025
1. Brayden Johnson LB 74.0 tot (def)
2. Evan Eller LB 62.0 tot (def)
3. Kaden Anderson QB 1,971 yds (pass)
4. Jones Thomas S 46.0 tot (def)
5. Tyce Westland DE 43.0 tot (def)

NFL Draft Pipeline

2022–2022

Thin

1 picks last 5 cycles. Roster development still maturing.

1 picks · 0 R1
#70 Chad Muma Inside Linebacker · 2022 · Jacksonville

Moment of the Year · Wyoming · 2025

Lost 6-31 vs Utah

Week 3 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.

Decisive Marginvs AP #20

Bowl / Postseason Ledger

Recent postseason (2022-2023): 1-1

Most recent: 2023 — win 16-15 (home). Last 5 postseason: 1-1.

20232022

From the Archive — Wyoming

Postseason 2022: Lost 27-30 vs Ohio

In 2022, the program lost 27-30 vs Ohio in the postseason — a close home result, 3 points either way.

Cowboy Tough. The altitude wins.