FBS CONFERENCE · 2025 SEASON
THE LONG WAIT · 2025
Conference USA lost nine programs to the American Athletic in 2023 — the largest single season exodus in FBS conference history. The league rebuilt with programs making the jump from FCS: Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State, and Sam Houston, alongside Liberty. The question was whether a conference composed almost entirely of programs still establishing FBS legitimacy could hold a coherent identity. Three seasons in, it remains open.
Liberty and Western Kentucky have both proven they can win double-digit games from the Conference USA footprint. Which program makes the bowl run that resets the perception of what Conference USA can produce in the post-exodus era?
Conference Standings · Conference USA · 2025
| # | Team | Conf |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kennesaw State | 8–1 |
| 2 | Jacksonville State | 7–2 |
| 3 | Western Kentucky | 6–2 |
| 4 | Louisiana Tech | 5–3 |
| 5 | Florida International | 5–3 |
| 6 | Missouri State | 5–3 |
| 7 | Delaware | 4–4 |
| 8 | Liberty | 3–5 |
| 9 | New Mexico State | 2–6 |
| 10 | Middle Tennessee | 2–6 |
| 11 | UTEP | 1–7 |
| 12 | Sam Houston | 1–7 |
Conference record determines standing. Power = neutral-field pts vs. all-level average. Last 5 = most recent game results.
Projected Standings · Conference USA · 2026
Preseason model — odds of winning at least N conference games, from current power ratings. Tiers rank projected strength; AVG = expected conference wins.
| # | Team | W–L | PWR | AVG | ≥8 | ≥7 | ≥6 | ≥5 | ≥4 | ≥3 | ≥2 | ≥1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favorites | ||||||||||||
| 1 | Western Kentucky | 5–3 | +3.1 | 4.7 | 1 | 9 | 28 | 55 | 80 | 94 | 99 | ✓ |
| 2 | Jacksonville State | 4–4 | +1.7 | 4.4 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 47 | 73 | 91 | 98 | ✓ |
| Challengers | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Kennesaw State | 4–4 | +1.5 | 4.3 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 44 | 71 | 90 | 98 | ✓ |
| 4 | Florida International | 4–4 | +0.7 | 4.2 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 42 | 70 | 89 | 98 | ✓ |
| 5 | Liberty | 4–4 | +0.8 | 4.2 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 42 | 69 | 89 | 98 | ✓ |
| The Field | ||||||||||||
| 6 | Missouri State | 4–4 | -0.4 | 3.9 | 3 | 12 | 33 | 61 | 84 | 96 | ✓ | |
| 7 | Delaware | 4–4 | -0.8 | 3.7 | 2 | 10 | 29 | 56 | 81 | 95 | 99 | |
| 8 | Middle Tennessee | 4–4 | -1.2 | 3.7 | 2 | 10 | 29 | 56 | 81 | 95 | 99 | |
| Rebuilding | ||||||||||||
| 9 | New Mexico State | 4–4 | -1.6 | 3.7 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 55 | 80 | 95 | 99 | |
| 10 | Sam Houston | 3–5 | -3.7 | 3.2 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 41 | 69 | 90 | 98 | |
Conference Power · FBS
| # | Conference | Avg Power |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEC | |
| 2 | Big Ten | |
| 3 | ACC | |
| 4 | Big 12 | |
| 5 | American Athletic | |
| 6 | Mountain West | |
| 7 | Sun Belt | |
| 8 | Mid-American | |
| 9 | Conference USAYou are here |
Round-robin power = strength of schedule-adjusted conference average, points vs. all-level average team. Record = Conference USA's record vs. that conference across all games this season.
Championship market · 2025
| # | Team | Best odds | Books |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liberty | +250 | 6bk |
| 2 | Western Kentucky | +260 | 6bk |
| 3 | Jacksonville State | +425 | 6bk |
| 4 | Delaware | +650 | 6bk |
| 5 | Kennesaw State | +700 | 6bk |
| 6 | Florida International | +920 | 6bk |
| 7 | New Mexico State | +1500 | 6bk |
| 8 | Missouri State | +1800 | 6bk |
| 9 | Middle Tennessee | +2500 | 6bk |
| 10 | Sam Houston | +4000 | 6bk |
Sportsbook consensus — best odds across multiple books · 2026-06-22 · American odds (e.g. +450 means bet $100 to win $450)
Conference USA reads like a weekly gauntlet. The middle of the league is strong enough that contenders do not get many breathers.
The league stack, sorted by predictive strength. Power is shown as neutral-field points versus the all-level average team, while resume is shown on a 0-100 season score.
| Rank | Team | Record | Power | Resume | ATS | Wins vs Market | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #57 | Western Kentucky | 9-4 | +15.0 | 90 | 10-3 | +1.25 | 2-2 over the last 4 (W12 L13 L14 W17) |
| #61 | Louisiana Tech | 8-5 | +14.4 | 86 | 8-5 | -0.00 | 3-1 over the last 4 (L12 W13 W14 W18) |
| #78 | Jacksonville State | 9-5 | +13.6 | 86 | 7-7 | +1.67 | 2-2 over the last 4 (L13 W14 L15 W16) |
| #82 | Kennesaw State | 10-4 | +13.4 | 94 | 9-5 | +2.63 | 3-1 over the last 4 (W13 W14 W15 L16) |
| #90 | Liberty | 4-8 | +12.7 | 60 | 3-9 | -3.16 | 0-4 over the last 4 (L11 L12 L13 L14) |
| #91 | Florida International | 7-6 | +12.6 | 75 | 8-5 | +0.70 | 3-1 over the last 4 (W12 W13 W14 L18) |
| #123 | Missouri State | 7-6 | +11.5 | 81 | 7-6 | +1.22 | 1-3 over the last 4 (W12 L13 L14 L16) |
| #133 | Delaware | 7-6 | +11.0 | 74 | 5-8 | +0.55 | 2-2 over the last 4 (L12 L13 W14 W16) |
| #147 | Middle Tennessee | 3-9 | +10.6 | 42 | 6-6 | -1.94 | 2-2 over the last 4 (L11 L12 W13 W14) |
| #160 | New Mexico State | 4-8 | +10.2 | 45 | 6-6 | -0.47 | 1-3 over the last 4 (L11 L12 W13 L14) |
| #179 | UTEP | 2-10 | +9.6 | 37 | 3-9 | -3.34 | 0-4 over the last 4 (L11 L12 L13 L14) |
| #206 | Sam Houston | 2-10 | +8.2 | 21 | 3-9 | -1.06 | 2-2 over the last 4 (W11 W12 L13 L14) |
Rank movement since the most recent refresh.
Teams whose stock dropped most since the last refresh.
Who beat the number most often this season.
| Team | Cover Rate | Record |
|---|---|---|
| Western Kentucky | 76.9% | 10-3 ATS |
| Kennesaw State | 64.3% | 9-5 ATS |
| Louisiana Tech | 61.5% | 8-5 ATS |
| Florida International | 61.5% | 8-5 ATS |
| Missouri State | 53.8% | 7-6 ATS |
Win total minus the market's implied expectation, by team.
| Team | Wins vs Market | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Kennesaw State | +2.63 | 14 lined games |
| Jacksonville State | +1.67 | 14 lined games |
| Western Kentucky | +1.25 | 13 lined games |
| Missouri State | +1.22 | 13 lined games |
| Florida International | +0.70 | 13 lined games |
How wide the league's power spread runs from top to bottom.