CFB Index
June 22, 2026 · Dead Period · Heritage Window · 2026 Outlook

Missouri State

7-6 2025 final

Missouri State is the Conference USA program competing for attention against the giants of its region.

The Bears are in the woods.

Record
7-6
win% .538
SP+
-2.1
Bowl Odds
Eligible
Year-over-Year
7 wins
Dead PeriodOffseasonPatientPost-loss — reckoning
The Long Wait·Offseason

Missouri State enters the 2026 season at 7-6.

2025 Record7-6
offseason · quiet
Read the full program story ↓

Offseason

69 days

until kickoff · Sun Aug 30 · 17:00 UTC

Act I

The 2026 Outlook

2026 Preview Thesis 2026 Evidence-validated

Missouri State faces a challenging 2026 season with limited reinforcements and a weak recruiting

The team enters the season with a net portal importer status, but struggles with depth due to a #133 recruiting rank. Transfer activity has not fully offset the lack of drafted players or returning production.

  • Roster reloadMissouri State has added 19 transfers, including notable names like Dylan Brooks and Markell Chapman, but lost 11 players, including DJ Wesolak and Mitchell Toney.
  • RecruitingThe team's recruiting efforts ranked #133 nationally with a score of 52.92, indicating a lack of high-level talent acquisition.
  • ScheduleThe season begins with a tough matchup against Texas A&M on September 5, 2026.
Data as of 2026-06-21 · Validated against program evidence

Offseason Pulse · Missouri State

Roster · Recruiting · Portal

Recruiting Class

#133 nationally

2025 cycle · 247 composite rating 52.9

Outside the recruiting top 60. Roster gaps must close via portal.

Returning Production

Awaiting signal

The Bears are in the woods.

Talent Composite

#129 nationally

2025 cycle · 247 composite 426.1

Outside the talent top 60. The wins must be earned in development.

Portal Movement

19 in / 11 out

2026 cycle · in 19 / out 11

Portal additions outpace losses; position detail lives in Roster Reload.

Missouri State · the story right now 1 storyline developing

What Missouri State's offseason is really about

the open questionwhere does it go from here?

this cycle✓ factnew

Missouri State enters 2025 rated No. 108 in SP+ (-10.7).

why it mattersMissouri State enters 2025 at No. 108 in SP+ — Ryan Beard's first season opens with a winning 7-6 record, but #129 talent nationally raises questions about sustainability.
narrative tension · our read

Roster Reload - Missouri State

2026 snapshot - 2026-06-21
Returning ProductionNAContinuity signal unavailable
Portal Additions19Primary repair: EDGE
Portal Losses11Primary pressure: DL
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#133Depth class (#133)
EDGEin 4 - Dylan Brooks3.60out 1 - DJ Wesolak3.40Need Filled
DLin 2 - Markell Chapman3.30out 3 - Mitchell Toney3.50Even
WRin 2 - Mekhi Miller3.49out 2 - Tristian Gardner3.60Even
IOLin 1 - Isaiah Villanueva3.50out 2 - Cash Hudson3.50Downgrade
OTin 2 - William Dixon3.50out 0Need Filled
QBin 2 - Skyler Locklear3.40out 0Need Filled

The Pulse on Missouri State

Archive · Late Spring · 600 mentions · medium confidence
73
Δ +1.6 vs last wk
600 mentions this week · conversation velocity

What moved it — offseason · last 30 days

June Dead-period quiet — official-visit + heritage window —
Camp Fall camp ~40 days out
"Go Bears." — Missouri State fanbase · recurring line

Five Lenses

What people are saying right now

The broader fanbase5 posts
Missouri State is probably the only fanbase that holds him in high regard.

CFB · 4d ago

News & campus coverage8 posts
10 Missouri State Players Earn Phil Steele Preseason All-Conference USA Honors -…

News · 2d ago

Aspiration Ladder

Brief Part III §33.4 · Missouri State

Bowl eligibility (6 wins)—

The baseline goal for a program at this stage.

Beat a rival—

The narrative win the season is graded by.

Statement year—

Exceed last season by 2+ wins.

Conference championshipLocked—

Out of reach without a transformative year.

Missouri State · Next-Season Outcome Band

Floor / Base / Ceiling

floor3-9No postseason.
base5-7No postseason.
ceiling8-5Bowl game.

Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.

Market outlook

Season expectations

Win total3 booksO/U 4.5
CFP championship#121 in field+100000
C-USA title#8 in market+1800

Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-06-22

Recruiting Reload - Top 3 commits

2026 class
★★★☆☆
Aiden Parker
EDGE · Auburn, AL
#1500 national
★★★☆☆
Josiah Turner
S · Forney, TX
#1589 national
★★★☆☆
Jerrick Martin
WR · Glasgow, KY
#2313 national

Recruiting Footprint · 2026

11
TX · 4GA · 2MO · 2AL · 1FL · 1KY · 1

TX leads the 2026 class with 4 commits. National footprint reaching 6 states.

Where they recruit · 2023-2026

15 signees across 7 states, 2023-2026. TX leads the pull.

MEVTNHWAIDMTNDMNWIMINYMAORNVWYSDIAILINOHPANJCTCAUTCONEMOKYWVVAMDDERIAZNMKSARTNNCSCDCOKLAMSALGAAKHITXFL
Source CFB Index · player_recruiting_profiles
Act II

Who We Are

Program Prestige · Missouri State

Mid-Major Contender

Mid-Major Contender — G5 force with occasional national attention.

T1Regional
T2Mid-Major
T3Power
T4National
T5Blue Blood
T6Dynasty
T7All-Time

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank Missouri State

CFB Index

#101

-2.1

SP+

#108

-10.7

FPI

#109

-11.5

Elo

#97

1328

SRS

#103

-8.8

The national models put Missouri State between 97th and 109th nationally — the CFB Index agrees, slotting them 101st.

National rank of 136 FBS teams · 2025 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Index ranked by rating.

Most Similar Programs · Missouri State

Reads Like

MarylandAdjacent tierUConnAdjacent tierVanderbiltAdjacent tier

Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.

Coaching Era · Missouri State

Ryan Beard

Ryan Beard's first year — new era under way.

Era Ryan Beard · 2025–present
1 year · era

Fanbase Health Index · Missouri State · medium confidence

Growing (66)

DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 7-6 (54% win rate)60
Volume — 127 effective signal-N72

Home-Field Advantage · Missouri State · 2018-present

Strong

64% home win rate vs 42% on the road. margin runs +9.2 better at home.

Home18-10Away14-19
How the room reactedreal evidence · tap rooms to explore
FOLLOWING NOW · MISSOURI STATE · SEASON OUTLOOK Confidence

Missouri State enters the season in the middle of the pack. That's the whole tension.

Missouri State enters 2025 rated No. 108 in SP+ (-10.7). SP+ is a tempo-free efficiency model — it describes what the program HAS done. The season is the test of whether it's still true. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.

near-unanimous belief where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers5 bull takes
💬 fans: 28% volume · mostly neutral
CFB INDEX READ · our read
Missouri State enters 2025 at No. 108 in SP+ — Ryan Beard's first season opens with a winning 7-6 record, but #129 talent nationally raises questions about sustainability.
Source of record: Missouri State enters 2025 rated No. 108 in SP+ (-10.7).

Every line is a door. Evidence opens in place — verbatim outlet headlines for news sources, verbatim fan text attributed to the community not the individual (never a username). Works with JavaScript off.

HOW EACH ROOM IS REACTING — TAP TO EXPAND
The Believers bullishThe Skeptics no dissentThe Boards thin
📣THE BELIEVERS5 bullish/recruiting items — the case it's working.›

The optimistic read: recruiting wins, momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.

“Meet the Bears: Mo State Adds Indiana Transfer Acimovic”
missouristatebears.com · 2026-06-19 · read ↗
“Meet the Bears: Mo State Adds Top Defender and Double Threat Thompson”
missouristatebears.com · 2026-06-17 · read ↗
“Missouri State football acquires 8 new football commits for the 2027 season”
KSMU Radio · 2026-06-17 · read ↗
🧐THE SKEPTICSNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›

The analytical counter: rankings, results and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.

Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.

💬THE BOARDS8 board mentions — too thin to call a stance. Board mood this week: mostly neutral · anger notable (25%).›

Only 8 of 29 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.

"Missouri State is probably the only fanbase that holds him in high regard."
r/CFB fan
"In some sick and twisted way, that lead to Missouri State being good at football."
r/CFB fan

Board health this week (20 posts): 30% positive · 50% neutral · 20% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.

Act III

Last Season Reviewed

2025 season · tap to expand

Recent Form · last 10 games

Cooling

Two of five. Schedule has caught up.

Streak L3Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 6-4

Season Standing · 2025 · 7-6

Bowl eligible

Missouri State: 6+ wins, bowl access secured. The baseline of a successful FBS year.

Sub-FBSBuildingBowlRankedContenderPlayoff

Conference USA Standing · 2025

6th in the Conference USA

Missouri State sits 6th of 10 in the Conference USA at 7-6. Mid-conference — moves up or down depend on rivalry results and the late-season closing run.

#ProgramRecord
1Kennesaw State10-4
2Western Kentucky9-4
3Jacksonville State9-5
4Delaware7-6
5Florida International7-6
6Missouri State7-6
7Liberty4-8
8New Mexico State4-8
9Middle Tennessee3-9
10Sam Houston2-10

Schedule Strength · Missouri State · 2025

Hard

Average opponent win rate 49% across 13 finalized games. 2 AP top-25 opponents played (SMU, USC).

Opp Win %0.499
Top-252
Top-100

Top Players · 2025

2025
1. Jacob Clark QB 3,244 yds (pass)
2. Kanye Young LB 77.0 tot (def)
3. Jared Lloyd LB 76.0 tot (def)
4. Shomari Lawrence RB 1,021 yds (rush)
5. Maguire Neal S 63.0 tot (def)

NFL Draft Pipeline

2022–2022

Thin

1 picks last 5 cycles. Roster development still maturing.

1 picks · 0 R1
#159 Eric Johnson Defensive Tackle · 2022 · Indianapolis

Moment of the Year · Missouri State · 2025

Lost 10-28 vs SMU

Week 3 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.

Decisive Marginvs AP #17

Bowl / Postseason Ledger

Recent postseason (2025): 0-1

Most recent: 2025 — loss 34-28 (away). Last 5 postseason: 0-1.

2025

From the Archive — Missouri State

2021: Won 34-27 vs Northern Iowa

In 2021, the program won 34-27 vs Northern Iowa — a tight home result that left the 7-point margin on the books.

The Bears eat tonight.