CFB Index
June 22, 2026 · Dead Period · Heritage Window · 2026 Outlook

ULM

3-9 2025 final

ULM is the Sun Belt program whose 2007 program rename + 2012 Alabama upset + Malone Stadium identity define what Monroe-North-Louisiana-football looks like.

Ace the Warhawk is patient.

Record
3-9
win% .250
SP+
-4.0
AP / Coaches
Bowl Status
Season closed
Dead PeriodOffseasonPatientPost-loss — reckoning
The Long Wait·Offseason

ULM is the north-Louisiana program that walked into Little Rock and stunned #8 Arkansas in overtime — one perfect Saturday it has spent a decade-plus trying to feel again.

Standard GapA 1987 FCS national title and the 'Shock in Little Rock' vs a modern rea…

ULM went 3-9 (1-7 Sun Belt) in 2025, Bryant Vincent's second season, after a 5-7 first year that started 5-1 and collapsed. Vincent also took on an interim athletic-director role in August 2025, an unusual dual hat. The question i…

offseason · quiet
Read the full program story ↓

In 2012, ULM trailed #8 Arkansas by 21 points and won in overtime. Kolton Browning accounted for 481 yards, the Warhawks shocked the whole sport, and north Louisiana had its Saturday. That was thirteen years ago.

The Shock in Little Rock is the most important fact about ULM football, and not only because nothing since has come close to it. It matters because it is proof — verifiable, scorebook-permanent — that a program on the smallest budget in its league can walk into an SEC stadium and walk out with the result. That proof sits behind every ULM season whether anyone mentions it or not. The 1987 FCS national title predates the FBS era, but that too belongs to the canon: a north-Louisiana school that won a championship before the sport reshuffled the tiers.

Bryant Vincent's second season in 2025 went 3-9 (1-7 Sun Belt) — a step back from the 5-7 first year that started 5-1 before collapsing. Vincent is also carrying an interim athletic director hat, an unusual dual role for a coach at a program asking him to do more with less. The smallest budget in the Sun Belt is not a metaphor; it is the operating condition every roster decision gets made inside.

The 2026 question in Monroe is whether Vincent can build a team that wins more often than it loses, or whether ULM's modern identity stays defined by a single extraordinary Saturday. A bowl trip would be the program's first since the 2012 season. A winning record would be proof the Warhawks can do it for sixty games, not just sixty minutes.

How they play

ULM plays underdog opportunism — a scheme built around doing more with less, creating confusion, and staying in position for the upset. When the Warhawks are at their best, they run a ball-control offense that shortens the game and keeps them close long enough for the play that changes it. The 2026 roster is thin but the scheme is built for the role: a program that earns its wins the hard way, one disruptive Saturday at a time.

program outlook · as of 2026-06-14
How They Play · 2025

ULM fields a struggling explosive, big-play offense behind a leaky, gives up the big play defense.

OffensePoor17th pct EPA/play · FBS
TempoExplosive, big-play94th pct explosiveness
DefenseSoft35th pct EPA allowed · FBS
Defensive shapeGives up the big play23rd pct at limiting explosive plays

Identity computed from opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate, explosiveness, and run/pass volume — percentiles vs all FBS.

Offseason

69 days

until kickoff · Sun Aug 30 · 17:00 UTC

Act I

The 2026 Outlook

2026 Preview Thesis 2026 Evidence-validated

UL Monroe Faces Balanced Portal Churn and Depth Challenges in 2026

With a recruiting rank of #115 and a transfer-in total of 20, UL Monroe enters 2026 with a roster.reload score of "High continuity", reflecting moderate uncertainty.

  • Roster reloadUL Monroe has a transfer-in total of 20 and a transfer-out total of 17, indicating a balanced portal churn.
Data as of 2026-06-20 · Validated against program evidence

Offseason Pulse · ULM

Roster · Recruiting · Portal

Recruiting Class

#115 nationally

2025 cycle · 247 composite rating 127.1

Outside the recruiting top 60. Roster gaps must close via portal.

Returning Production

78%

2025 cycle · CFBD weighted

Top-tier continuity. QB returns.

Talent Composite

#124 nationally

2025 cycle · 247 composite 473.3

Outside the talent top 60. The wins must be earned in development.

Portal Movement

20 in / 17 out

2026 cycle · in 20 / out 17

Incoming and outgoing movement are tracked separately in Roster Reload.

UL Monroe · the story right now 1 storyline developing

What UL Monroe's offseason is really about

the open questionwhere does it go from here?

this cycle✓ factnew

UL Monroe enters 2025 rated No. 131 in SP+ (-21.6), down 9 spots from 2024.

the contexttop-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back
why it mattersUL Monroe enters 2025 at No. 131 in SP+ — the 9-spot drop under Bryant Vincent raises one question: how to overcome top-quintile production losses.
narrative tension · our read

Roster Reload - ULM

2026 snapshot - 2026-06-21
Returning Production78%High continuity
Portal Additions20Primary repair: TE
Portal Losses17Primary pressure: DL
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#115Depth class (#115)
RBin 4 - Donald Chaney Jr.3.60out 4 - Tyrell Reed Jr.3.49Even
Sin 3 - Taijh Overton3.60out 2 - Kamrin Canterbury3.30Upgrade
DLin 0out 4 - Jerome Simmons3.60Starter Risk
TEin 3 - Bryce Anderson3.60out 1 - Hunter Herring3.50Need Filled
EDGEin 2 - Le'Kell McGowan3.50out 2 - Kevontay Wells3.50Even
WRin 2 - Damarcco Blanton3.40out 2 - Jonathan Bibbs3.50Even

The Pulse on ULM

Quiet · dead period heritage · signal ramps back in camp
Ace the Warhawk is patient.

What moved it — offseason · last 30 days

June Dead-period quiet — official-visit + heritage window
Camp Fall camp ~40 days out
"Warhawks" — ULM fanbase · recurring line
46 mentions · sample growing

Aspiration Ladder

Brief Part III §33.4 · ULM

8 wins

Above the program's recent baseline.

Beat a top-10 opponent

Statement win that reshapes recruiting.

Conference championship game appearance

Plausible breakthrough.

NY6 bowlLocked

Beyond modern reach without a transformative year.

ULM · Next-Season Outcome Band

Floor / Base / Ceiling

floor4-8No postseason.
base7-6Bowl game.
ceiling9-4Bowl game.

Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.

Market outlook

Season expectations

Win total3 booksO/U 3.5
CFP championship#129 in field+100000
Sun Belt title#13 in market+3500

Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-06-22

Recruiting Reload - Top 3 commits

2026 class
★★★☆☆
Jeremyah Green
IOL · Quitman, AR
#1924 national
★★★☆☆
Keidric Osunde-Brown
WR · Arlington, TX
#2313 national
★★★☆☆
Van Martinez
OT · Monroe, LA
#2313 national

Recruiting Footprint · 2026

3
AR · 1LA · 1TX · 1

AR leads the 2026 class with 1 commits. National footprint reaching 3 states.

Where they recruit · 2023-2026

40 signees across 12 states, 2023-2026. MS leads the pull.

MEVTNHWAIDMTNDMNWIMINYMAORNVWYSDIAILINOHPANJCTCAUTCONEMOKYWVVAMDDERIAZNMKSARTNNCSCDCOKLAMSALGAAKHITXFL
Source CFB Index · player_recruiting_profiles
Act II

Who We Are

Program Prestige · ULM

Mid-Major Contender

Mid-Major Contender — G5 force with occasional national attention.

Historical peak: Tier 4 · National Program (2012 8-5 + Independence Bowl appearance under Todd Berry (after upsetting #8 Arkansas); 1987 NCAA Division I-AA national championship). Current tier: Tier 2.

T1Regional
T2Mid-Major
T3Power
T4National
T5Blue Blood
T6Dynasty
T7All-Time

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank UL Monroe

CFB Index

#131

-4.0

SP+

#131

-21.6

FPI

#131

-19.2

Elo

#132

1016

SRS

#133

-20.0

The national models put UL Monroe between 131st and 133rd nationally — the CFB Index agrees, slotting them 131st.

National rank of 136 FBS teams · 2025 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Index ranked by rating.

Most Similar Programs · ULM

Reads Like

Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.

Coaching Era · ULM

Bryant Vincent

Bryant Vincent in year 2 of the rebuild. The methodology is taking shape.

Era Bryant Vincent · 2024–presentPrev: Terry Bowden (2021–2023)
2 years · era

Rituals

Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.

2012 Alabama Upset

since 2012

ULM upset #8 Arkansas (34-31 OT) in 2012 — one of the most-iconic G5 upsets of the BCS era. The win + the Todd Berry era + the Sun Belt G5 ascent narrative made the 2012 season program identity. ULM's Sun Belt run + the multiple bowl appearances + the 1987 FCS championship retroactively elevated.

1987 FCS National Championship

since 1987

Northeast Louisiana (now ULM) won the 1987 NCAA Division I-AA national championship. The championship is the program's only national title + opened the path to FBS reclassification. The 2007 program rename (from Northeast Louisiana to University of Louisiana at Monroe / ULM) was the institutional identity reset.

Fanbase Health Index · ULM · medium confidence

Growing (53)

DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 3-9 (25% win rate)44
Volume — 45 effective signal-N63

Home-Field Advantage · ULM · 2018-present

Elite

45% home win rate vs 8% on the road. margin runs +17.9 better at home.

Home15-18Away3-34

Chronicle Visuals

5 deterministic SVG · provenance-gated
2026 preview

Among the most continuous rosters into 2025 — 78% back, anchored by the qb room, only offense to settle.

Among the most continuous rosters into 2025 — 78% back, anchored by the qb room, only offense to settle.Offense is the stress point for 2025. Source: CFB Index — returning production vs the FBS average (dashed = league avg) · 2025 · high confidenceRETURNING PRODUCTION · 2025Among the most continuous rosters into2025 — 78% back, anchored by the qbroom, only offense to settle.QB roomQB room: 100% returning100%OffenseOffense: 78% returning78%OverallOverall: 78% returning78%▸ Offense is the stress point for 2025.Source: CFB Index — returning production vs the FBS average(dashed = league avg) · 2025 · high confidence
model-confident
2026 preview

The portal upgraded the TE room but opened a hole at DL.

The portal upgraded the TE room but opened a hole at DL.Net +3 · upgraded TE · hole at DL. Source: CFB Index — transfer portal in/out by position (count) · 2026 · 20 in / 17 out · high confidenceTRANSFER PORTAL · 2026The portal upgraded the TE room butopened a hole at DL.OUTINCBCB: 2 in2net +2DLDL: 4 out4net -4EDGEEDGE: 2 out2EDGE: 2 in2net 0IOLIOL: 1 out1IOL: 1 in1net 0KK: 1 in1net +1LBLB: 1 out1net -1OTOT: 1 in1net +1QBQB: 1 in1net +1RBRB: 4 out4RB: 4 in4net 0SS: 2 out2S: 3 in3net +1TETE: 1 out1TE: 3 in3net +2WRWR: 2 out2WR: 2 in2net 0▸ Net +3 · upgraded TE · hole at DL.Source: CFB Index — transfer portal in/out by position(count) · 2026 · 20 in / 17 out · high confidence
model-confident
2026 preview

UL Monroe sits where recruit talent and draft yield largely match.

UL Monroe sits where recruit talent and draft yield largely match.Talent 6th, draft yield 20th among 132 programs. Source: CFB Index — recruit talent vs draft-pick yield · 2025 · 132 programs · high confidenceUL MONROE · TALENT YIELDUL Monroe sits where recruit talent anddraft yield largely match.Recruit talent (percentile) →Draft yield (percentile) →Georgia — 99 / 99 pctileBaylor — 73 / 35 pctileWashington State — 28 / 64 pctileCentral Michigan — 8 / 43 pctileOld Dominion — 7 / 51 pctileUL Monroe — 6 / 20 pctileUL MonroeWashington StateOld DominionCentral MichiganGeorgiaBaylor▸ Talent 6th, draft yield 20th among 132 programs.Source: CFB Index — recruit talent vs draft-pick yield ·2025 · 132 programs · high confidence
model-confident
2024 season

A different team every week in 2024 — huge swings, no settled identity.

A different team every week in 2024 — huge swings, no settled identity.a different team every week, with no settled identity. Source: CFB Index — per-game power-rating swings · 2024 · 8 games · medium confidenceTHE WEEK-TO-WEEK RIDE · 2024A different team every week in 2024 —huge swings, no settled identity.Game 1: -2.37 power swingGame 2: -2.37 power swingGame 3: +1.94 power swingGame 4: +1.94 power swingGame 5: -0.36 power swingGame 6: -0.36 power swingGame 7: +0.72 power swingGame 8: +0.72 power swing-2.4▲ stock-up week▼ stock-down week▸ a different team every week, with no settled identity.Source: CFB Index — per-game power-rating swings · 2024 · 8games · medium confidence
solid read
2024 season

W 32-6 vs UAB leads the season's top 4 results by combined power and résumé delta.

W 32-6 vs UAB leads the season's top 4 results by combined power and résumé delta.W 32-6 vs UAB is the biggest mover. Source: CFB Index — results ranked by combined power + résumé impact · top 4 games · medium confidenceSTATEMENT WINS · TOP 4 RESULTSW 32-6 vs UAB leads the season's top 4results by combined power and résumédelta.W 32-6 vs UABW 32-6 vs UAB — +3.15 résumé impactW 32-6 vs UAB — +3.15 résumé impact+3.15W 13-9 vs TroyW 13-9 vs Troy — +1.28 résumé impact+1.28L 3-51 vs TexasL 3-51 vs Texas — -1.30 résumé impact-1.30W 30-14 vs Jackson StateW 30-14 vs Jackson State — -2.37 résumé impact-2.37▸ W 32-6 vs UAB is the biggest mover.Source: CFB Index — results ranked by combined power +résumé impact · top 4 games · medium confidence
solid read
THE SAVANT CARD · ULM · 2025

ULM reads strongest in explosive plays (top 7%) and rushing epa allowed (top 42%); the crux lives in success rate, where ULM sits at the 11th percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.07
17th
Success Rate +0.36
11th
Explosive Plays +1.40
94th
Rushing EPA +0.04
24th

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed +0.18
35th
Success Rate Allowed +0.41
56th
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.33
23rd
Passing EPA Allowed +0.32
27th

hidden math · special situations

Passing EPA +0.22
39th
Rushing EPA Allowed +0.06
59th
ELITE · 90+STRONG · 70+AVERAGE · 40-70CONCERN · 10-40BOTTOM · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · opponent-adjusted · 12 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 139 FBS peers

AI Narratives

6 AI-generated · local Mistral Nemo All Chronicle cards →
PLAYER ARC

UL Monroe's tough stretch

UL Monroe wrapped up a challenging season, finishing 3-9 through Week 14. The Warriors won only three games all year, with their lone bright spot coming in back-to-back victories over Arkansas State and UTEP in Weeks 4 and 5. However, they dropped seven straight contests afterward, including a 73-0 rout at Alabama in Week 2 [src:cfbi_db].

RETROACTIVE

UL Monroe ends 2025 season on nine-game losing streak

UL Monroe finished their 2025 campaign with a dismal 3-9 record, capped by a nine-game losing streak. The Warhawks' only wins came in Weeks 1 (vs. St. Francis) [src:cfbi_db], Week 4 (at UTEP), and Week 5 (vs. Arkansas State). Their final four losses—including a 30-27 defeat at Louisiana—highlighted a collapse down the stretch. The Warhawks' defense took another hit with DL Jerome Simmons transferring to Oregon [src:reddit].

ECHO

UL Monroe's Struggles Continue in 2025

UL Monroe's 2025 season was marred by consistent defeats. After an opening win against St. Francis (PA), the Warhawks lost nine of their next twelve games [src:cfbi_db]. Key losses included a 73-0 drubbing at Alabama and a narrow 27-30 defeat to Louisiana in Week 14. Their lone bright spots came with victories over UTEP and Arkansas State, but overall, the season highlighted persistent challenges on both sides of the ball.

FLASHPOINT

UL Monroe's Collapse Deepens Offseason Woes

UL Monroe finished 3-9 in 2025, defined by a seven-game losing streak from Week 6 to Week 12. The Warhawks won only three games all season, including an early victory over Arkansas State. Jerome Simmons is expected to visit Oregon [src:google_news_ul-monroe], complicating the defensive rebuild after such a porous campaign.

FLASHPOINT

UL Monroe's 2025 Season: A Struggle Through the Sun Belt

UL Monroe's 2025 campaign ended on a sour note, finishing with a 3-9 record. The Warriors started strong with a shutout win over St. Francis (PA) in Week 1 but faltered quickly, losing nine of their next 12 games. Back-to-back victories over UTEP and Arkansas State provided brief hope, but a brutal stretch against conference foes sealed their fate. Their lone highlight was a narrow loss to Louisiana in Week 14 [src:cfbi_db].

PLAYER ARC

UL Monroe's Collapse in 2025

UL Monroe finished 3-9. The season began with a 29-0 shutout of St. Francis (PA) [src:cfbi_db]. Then came the collapse. After beating UTEP and Arkansas State, they lost five straight from Week 6 to Week 10 [src:cfbi_db]. That streak included an 8-point loss at Coastal Carolina and a 21-49 defeat at Southern Miss. The Warhawks never recovered, losing their final three games to South Alabama, Texas State, and Louisiana. Their only other win came in that opening shutout.

How the room reactedreal evidence · tap rooms to explore
DEVELOPING · UL MONROE · SEASON OUTLOOK Confidence

UL Monroe is near the bottom of the model. The math is the story.

UL Monroe enters 2025 rated No. 131 in SP+ (-21.6), down 9 spots from 2024. It is top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back. SP+ is a tempo-free efficiency model — it describes what the program HAS done. The season is the test of whether it's still true. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.

near-unanimous belief where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers4 bull takes
CFB INDEX READ · our read
UL Monroe enters 2025 at No. 131 in SP+ — the 9-spot drop under Bryant Vincent raises one question: how to overcome top-quintile production losses.
Source of record: UL Monroe enters 2025 rated No. 131 in SP+ (-21.6), down 9 spots from 2024 — top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back.

Every line is a door. Evidence opens in place — verbatim outlet headlines for news sources, verbatim fan text attributed to the community not the individual (never a username). Works with JavaScript off.

HOW EACH ROOM REACTED — TAP TO EXPAND
The Believers bullishThe Skeptics no dissent
📣THE BELIEVERS4 bullish/recruiting items — the case it's working.

The optimistic read: recruiting wins, momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.

“Running back D'Shaun Ford commits to Louisiana-Monroe during Navy All-American Bowl”
On3 · 2026-06-19 · read ↗
“ULM Football Announces New Staff Additions”
University of Louisiana Monroe Athletics · 2026-01-23 · read ↗
“ULM Football Adds Transfers to 2026 Roster”
University of Louisiana Monroe Athletics · 2026-01-22 · read ↗
🧐THE SKEPTICSNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.

The analytical counter: rankings, results and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.

Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.

Act III

Last Season Reviewed

2025 season · tap to expand

Recent Form · last 10 games

Hibernating

Zero of five. Reset territory.

Streak L8Last 5 · 0-5Last 10 · 2-8

Season Standing · 2025 · 3-9

FBS sub-.500

ULM: Below .500 in FBS play. The rebuild bar.

Sub-FBSBuildingBowlRankedContenderPlayoff

Sun Belt Standing · 2025

13th in the Sun Belt

ULM is 13th of 14 in the Sun Belt at 3-9. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.

#ProgramRecord
1James Madison12-2
2Old Dominion10-3
3Louisiana Tech8-5
4Troy8-6
5Arkansas State7-6
6Georgia Southern7-6
7Southern Miss7-6
8Coastal Carolina6-7
9Louisiana6-7
10Marshall5-7
11App State5-8
12South Alabama4-8
13UL Monroe3-9
14Georgia State1-11

Schedule Strength · ULM · 2025

Balanced

Average opponent win rate 47% across 12 finalized games. 1 AP top-25 opponent played (Alabama).

Opp Win %0.471
Top-251
Top-101

Top Players · 2025

2025
1. Noah Flemmings LB 80.0 tot (def)
2. Jabari Tiller DB 46.0 tot (def)
3. Zachary Palmer-Smith RB 660 yds (rush)
4. Braylon McReynolds RB 614 yds (rush)
5. Aidan Armenta QB 1,619 yds (pass)

Moment of the Year · ULM · 2025

Lost 0-73 at Alabama

Week 2 of 2025. A reckoning loss — the data point the next season must answer.

Decisive Marginvs AP #21

From the Archive — ULM

2023: Lost 3-47 at Texas A&M

In 2023, the program lost 3-47 at Texas A&M — a stinging road result, 44 points either way.

Fly High. Monroe roars.