FCS CONFERENCE · 2025 SEASON

MVFC

#12 overall#1 in FCSRR50 +10.2Upper strength +13.010 teamsTop 25 teams 0

THE LONG WAIT · 2025

Eighteen Titles

The Missouri Valley Football Conference has produced 18 FCS national championships. In 2023 six MVFC teams entered the 24-team bracket simultaneously — a number no other conference in any division has matched. NDSU left for the Mountain West after 2024, but the Valley did not flinch: South Dakota State won the 2025 title in Nashville.

Without NDSU anchoring the top of the bracket, does South Dakota State cement a new dynasty, or does the Valley's depth produce a different champion every year?

FCS10 teamsRace: FCS Playoff

MVFC · 2026 Season Preview

Three Things to Watch

The Defending ChampionSouth Dakota State: The New MVFC Standard

SDSU won the 2025 FCS title in Nashville — their second in four years — without the NDSU rivalry to validate them. Entering 2026 as the undisputed Valley standard, the Jackrabbits have the roster depth and coaching continuity to win back-to-back. Every other program in the conference is building a case to knock them off.

The TraditionIowa State's Little Brother Is Doing Fine

North Dakota State left the Valley for the Mountain West after 2024, taking 8 FCS titles with them. What remained wasn't emptied — it was clarified. The Valley now has five programs capable of earning a top-4 seed, and none of them is NDSU. The bracket is genuinely open in a way it hasn't been in fifteen years.

Wild CardIllinois State's Quietly Elite Profile

Illinois State has gone 9-win or better three of the last four seasons and earns at-large bids that don't generate national headlines. Their defensive system is one of the most underrated in FCS football. If they're healthy in November, they're a quarterfinal team every year.

Conference Standings · MVFC · 2025

Standings

#	Team	Conf	Overall	Pwr
1	North Dakota State	8–1	12–1	+16.0
2	South Dakota	6–2	10–5	+11.8
3	Illinois State	6–3	12–5	+13.6
4	Youngstown State	5–3	8–5	+10.7
5	North Dakota	5–3	8–6	+13.5
6	South Dakota State	4–4	9–5	+11.1
7	Southern Illinois	4–4	7–5	+11.9
8	Northern Iowa	1–7	3–9	+7.2
9	Indiana State	1–7	3–9	+5.6
10	Murray State	1–7	1–11	+5.0

Conference record determines standing. Power = neutral-field pts vs. all-level average. Last 5 = most recent game results.

Projected Standings · MVFC · 2025

Win Projection

Odds of winning at least N conference games from current power ratings — full slate played out, not locked to results. AVG = expected wins; W–L = most-likely record.

#	Team	W–L	PWR	AVG	≥8	≥7	≥6	≥5	≥4	≥3	≥2	≥1
Favorites
1	North Dakota State	5–3	+5.4	5.0	2	13	36	64	86	96	99	✓
2	Illinois State	5–3	+3.0	4.7	1	9	28	56	80	94	99	✓
Challengers
3	North Dakota	5–3	+2.8	4.6	1	8	27	55	80	94	99	✓
4	Southern Illinois	4–4	+1.3	4.3	1	5	19	44	71	90	98	✓
5	South Dakota	4–4	+1.2	4.2	1	5	18	43	71	90	98	✓
The Field
6	South Dakota State	4–4	+0.5	4.1		4	16	40	67	88	97	✓
7	Youngstown State	4–4	+0.1	4.0		3	14	37	65	87	97	✓
8	Northern Iowa	3–5	-3.5	3.2		1	4	16	40	69	90	98
Rebuilding
9	Murray State	3–5	-5.6	3.0			3	13	34	62	86	98
10	Indiana State	3–5	-5.1	2.9			3	12	32	60	85	97

Conference Power · FCS

Where We Stand

#	Conference	Avg Power	vs Focal	Top Team
1	MVFCYou are here	+10.2	—	North Dakota State
2	Big Sky	+9.6	6–5	Montana State
3	MEAC	+9.4	—	South Carolina State
4	UAC	+9.3	1–2	Tarleton State
5	SWAC	+9.1	—	Alabama State
6	Southland	+9.1	1–2	Stephen F. Austin
7	CAA	+8.9	3–0	Villanova
8	Patriot	+8.7	—	Lehigh
9	Big South-OVC	+8.6	7–0	Tennessee Tech
10	Pioneer	+8.5	7–0	Presbyterian
11	Southern	+8.4	2–1	Mercer
12	NEC	+8.2	3–0	Central Connecticut
13	Ivy	+7.7	0–1	Yale

Round-robin power = strength of schedule-adjusted conference average, points vs. all-level average team. Record = MVFC's record vs. that conference across all games this season.

MVFC is outperforming its raw power profile. The league body of work is stronger than the market would expect.

Conference Snapshot

RR50+10.2

Upper Strength+13.0

Median Power+10.8

Resume Pulse67.3

Avg ATS54.2%

Wins vs Market+0.18

Top-to-Middle Gap4.5

Combined Record73-61

League Drivers

Power leader North Dakota State #38 overall | +16.0 pts vs avg Resume leader North Dakota State #38 overall | 98 / 100 resume ATS leader Murray State 81.8% cover rate Beat expectation Illinois State +2.13 wins vs market

MVFC Team Board

The league stack, sorted by predictive strength. Power is shown as neutral-field points versus the all-level average team, while resume is shown on a 0-100 season score.

Rank	Team	Record	Power	Resume	ATS	Wins vs Market	Recent Form
#38	North Dakota State	12-1	+16.0	98	5-5	+0.72	3-1 over the last 4 (W11 W12 W13 L15)
#76	Illinois State	12-5	+13.6	93	9-6	+2.13	3-1 over the last 4 (W15 W16 W17 L19)
#81	North Dakota	8-6	+13.5	84	8-5	-1.01	2-2 over the last 4 (W12 L13 W14 L15)
#111	Southern Illinois	7-5	+11.9	81	4-6	-0.02	2-2 over the last 4 (W10 L11 L12 W13)
#113	South Dakota	10-5	+11.8	85	4-8	+0.89	3-1 over the last 4 (W12 W14 W15 L16)
#128	South Dakota State	9-5	+11.1	84	5-8	-0.74	2-2 over the last 4 (L12 W13 W14 L15)
#146	Youngstown State	8-5	+10.7	83	7-5	+0.61	3-1 over the last 4 (W11 W12 W13 L14)
#223	Northern Iowa	3-9	+7.2	30	7-5	-1.16	1-3 over the last 4 (L10 W11 L12 L13)
#249	Indiana State	3-9	+5.6	23	6-4	+0.01	1-3 over the last 4 (W10 L11 L12 L13)
#255	Murray State	1-11	+5.0	13	9-2	+0.34	1-3 over the last 4 (L10 L11 L12 W13)