CFB Index
June 22, 2026 · Dead Period · Heritage Window · 2026 Outlook

Temple

5-7 2025 final

Temple is the American Athletic program whose 2016 10-4 + AAC championship under Matt Rhule + Lincoln Financial Field NFL-stadium-shared identity define what Philadelphia-G5-football looks like.

Hooter the Owl is patient.

Record
5-7
win% .416
SP+
-3.0
AP / Coaches
Bowl Status
Season closed
Dead PeriodOffseasonPatientPost-loss — diagnostic
The Long Wait·Offseason

Temple is the North Philadelphia program that Matt Rhule dragged to an AAC title and a top-25 ranking, then watched slide back to the bottom — and is now handing the rebuild to a 275-win coach who refuses to be realistic about how fast the Owls can climb.

Title DroughtSince 2016 · 9 yrs

K.C. Keeler — a 275-game career winner who built Sam Houston into an FCS power and a bowl-winning FBS newcomer — took over Temple in 2025 and went 5-7 (3-5 American) in year one, earning his 275th career win along the way. Crucial…

offseason · quiet
Read the full program story ↓

Matt Rhule won an AAC title at Temple and left for Baylor. The program that followed used two and three wins. K.C. Keeler — 275 career victories — took over in 2025, went 5-7, and lost zero starters to the transfer portal afterward. 'Temple Made' is a code, not a slogan.

The best version of this program lived between 2015 and 2016, when Matt Rhule built back-to-back ten-win seasons, knocked off Penn State for the first time since 1941, and won the AAC championship. That version of Temple was a live argument: a North Philadelphia commuter school in an NFL stadium, playing physical football with overlooked players and producing a winning program in a city that belonged to the Eagles and the Phillies. Then Rhule left for Baylor, and the program bled out — two- and three-win seasons that erased almost everything he built.

K.C. Keeler's pitch is the clearest possible counter-argument: a 275-game career winner, a coach who built Sam Houston into an FCS power and won at the FBS level, a man who announced when he took the Temple job that he had no interest in being realistic. The 5-7 first season is a platform, not a ceiling, and his roster held together — no starters lost through the portal, a Penn State QB transfer in Jaxon Smolik added to the room. That retention alone is a data point; programs in the middle of the American don't usually hold their full roster through a losing year.

The 2026 question is how fast the architecture becomes results. The American Athletic is a league where a healthy roster and a competent staff can build to eight or nine wins in year two. Temple has done it before. The question is whether Keeler's version of 'Temple Made' can get there before the patience of a fanbase that remembers the Rhule years runs out.

How they play

Philadelphia blue-collar — physical, defense-first, chip-on-the-shoulder football that mirrors the city it's built in. Keeler's program emphasizes toughness and retention over splashy portal additions, building with overlooked players who absorb coaching quickly. Lincoln Financial Field, shared with the Eagles, gives Temple a big-league stage; the identity demands the program play like it earned the venue rather than borrowed it.

program outlook · as of 2026-06-14
How They Play · 2025

Temple fields a capable methodical, ball-control offense behind a porous defense.

OffenseSolid54th pct EPA/play · FBS
TempoMethodical, ball-control53rd pct success, 16th explosiveness
DefensePoor10th pct EPA allowed · FBS

Identity computed from opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate, explosiveness, and run/pass volume — percentiles vs all FBS.

Offseason

69 days

until kickoff · Sun Aug 30 · 17:00 UTC

Act I

The 2026 Outlook

2026 Preview Thesis 2026 Evidence-validated

Temple's 2026 season hinges on high continuity and balanced portal churn

With 100% returning player retention and a recruiting rank of #123, Temple faces a critical test in maintaining stability amid significant transfer activity.

  • Roster reloadTemple retains 100% of its returning players, indicating high continuity despite 23 transfers in and 25 out.
Data as of 2026-06-21 · Validated against program evidence

Offseason Pulse · Temple

Roster · Recruiting · Portal

Recruiting Class

#123 nationally

2025 cycle · 247 composite rating 102.0

Outside the recruiting top 60. Roster gaps must close via portal.

Returning Production

100%

2025 cycle · CFBD weighted

Top-tier continuity. QB returns.

Talent Composite

#113 nationally

2025 cycle · 247 composite 507.9

Outside the talent top 60. The wins must be earned in development.

Portal Movement

23 in / 25 out

2026 cycle · in 23 / out 25

Incoming and outgoing movement are tracked separately in Roster Reload.

Temple · the story right now 1 storyline developing

What Temple's offseason is really about

the open questioncan a new staff change the trajectory?

coachingthis cycle✓ factnew

K.C. Keeler took over as Temple's head coach, replacing Everett Withers.

the contextthe program's third head coach in five seasons
why it mattersKeeler begins his first season with 100% production returning but a #113 talent rank — the Owls' last AAC title under Rhule feels like another era.
narrative tension · our read

Roster Reload - Temple

2026 snapshot - 2026-06-21
Returning Production100%High continuity
Portal Additions23Primary repair: S
Portal Losses25Primary pressure: IOL
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#123Depth class (#123)
DLin 5 - Quante Gillians3.50out 6 - Sekou Kromah3.60Even
WRin 4 - Jayce Freeman3.60out 5 - Ian Stewart3.49Even
IOLin 1 - John Stone3.50out 4 - Ken Meir3.00Starter Risk
Sin 3 - Jaeden Gould4.28out 1 - Zavien Bryant3.49Need Filled
RBin 1 - Samuel Brown V3.40out 3 - Terrez Worthy3.50Starter Risk
LBin 2 - Cookie Desiderio3.20out 2 - London Hall3.49Even

The Pulse on Temple

Archive · Late Spring · 600 mentions · medium confidence
69
Δ +5.7 vs last wk
600 mentions this week · conversation velocity

What moved it — offseason · last 30 days

June Dead-period quiet — official-visit + heritage window
Camp Fall camp ~40 days out
"Temple Made" — Temple fanbase · recurring line

Aspiration Ladder

Brief Part III §33.4 · Temple

8 wins

Above the program's recent baseline.

Beat a top-10 opponent

Statement win that reshapes recruiting.

Conference championship game appearance

Plausible breakthrough.

NY6 bowlLocked

Beyond modern reach without a transformative year.

Temple · Next-Season Outcome Band

Floor / Base / Ceiling

floor4-8No postseason.
base7-6Bowl game.
ceiling9-4Bowl game.

Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.

Market outlook

Season expectations

Win total3 booksO/U 5.5
CFP championship#104 in field+100000
AAC title#10 in market+1800

Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-06-22

Recruiting Reload - Top 3 commits

2026 class
★★★☆☆
Karon Spencer
OT · Olney, MD
#1396 national
★★★☆☆
Brody Norman
QB · Mooresville, NC
#1465 national
★★★☆☆
Hunter Watson
WR · Jersey City, NJ
#1245 national

Recruiting Footprint · 2026

26
PA · 10NJ · 6MD · 5DE · 1FL · 1MA · 1NC · 1NY · 1

PA leads the 2026 class with 10 commits. National footprint reaching 8 states.

Where they recruit · 2023-2026

60 signees across 16 states, 2023-2026. PA leads the pull.

MEVTNHWAIDMTNDMNWIMINYMAORNVWYSDIAILINOHPANJCTCAUTCONEMOKYWVVAMDDERIAZNMKSARTNNCSCDCOKLAMSALGAAKHITXFL
Source CFB Index · player_recruiting_profiles
Act II

Who We Are

Program Prestige · Temple

Mid-Major Contender

Mid-Major Contender — G5 force with occasional national attention.

Historical peak: Tier 4 · National Program (2016 10-4 + AAC championship + Military Bowl under Matt Rhule; 1979 10-2 + Garden State Bowl + #17 final AP under Wayne Hardin). Current tier: Tier 2.

T1Regional
T2Mid-Major
T3Power
T4National
T5Blue Blood
T6Dynasty
T7All-Time

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank Temple

CFB Index

#116

-3.0

SP+

#88

-5.1

FPI

#97

-8.4

Elo

#114

1219

SRS

#95

-7.0

The national models put Temple between 88th and 114th nationally — the CFB Index is more skeptical, at 116th.

National rank of 136 FBS teams · 2025 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Index ranked by rating.

Most Similar Programs · Temple

Reads Like

Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.

Coaching Era · Temple

K.C. Keeler

K.C. Keeler took over from Everett Withers for the 2025 season.

Era K.C. Keeler · 2025–presentPrev: Everett Withers (2024)
1 year · era

Rituals

Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.

Matt Rhule Era (2013-2016)

since 2013

Matt Rhule's 2013-2016 tenure produced the modern peak — 2016 10-4 + AAC championship + Military Bowl appearance. Rhule's program-building methodology + recruiting reach + coaching-tree influence (P.J. Fleck connection) made the era nationally relevant. Rhule's 2017 departure to Baylor (then Carolina Panthers, Nebraska) took the methodology with him.

Lincoln Financial Field (Shared with Eagles)

since 2003

Temple plays home games at Lincoln Financial Field — the Philadelphia Eagles' NFL stadium. The 69,000 capacity + shared venue + Philadelphia setting + the modern professional facility + Eagles co-tenancy create a venue distinct from on-campus G5 venues. The shared identity occasionally produces venue scheduling conflicts.

Temple Made Identity

since 2010s

'Temple Made' — the program's contemporary defiance-rooted mantra — captures the Philadelphia-G5-academic identity. The phrase emerged during the Matt Rhule era + remained through subsequent coaching changes. The two-word phrase compactly encapsulates institutional pride + Philadelphia football identity.

Fanbase Health Index · Temple · medium confidence

Growing (63)

DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 5-7 (42% win rate)53
Volume — 127 effective signal-N72

Home-Field Advantage · Temple · 2018-present

Strong

40% home win rate vs 12% on the road. margin runs +12.8 better at home.

Home14-21Away4-28

Chronicle Visuals

5 deterministic SVG · provenance-gated
2026 preview

Among the most continuous rosters into 2025 — 100% back, anchored by the qb room, only offense to settle.

Among the most continuous rosters into 2025 — 100% back, anchored by the qb room, only offense to settle.Offense is the stress point for 2025. Source: CFB Index — returning production vs the FBS average (dashed = league avg) · 2025 · high confidenceRETURNING PRODUCTION · 2025Among the most continuous rosters into2025 — 100% back, anchored by the qbroom, only offense to settle.QB roomQB room: 100% returning100%OffenseOffense: 100% returning100%OverallOverall: 100% returning100%▸ Offense is the stress point for 2025.Source: CFB Index — returning production vs the FBS average(dashed = league avg) · 2025 · high confidence
model-confident
2026 preview

The portal upgraded the S room but opened a hole at DL.

The portal upgraded the S room but opened a hole at DL.Net -2 · upgraded S · hole at DL. Source: CFB Index — transfer portal in/out by position (count) · 2026 · 23 in / 25 out · high confidenceTRANSFER PORTAL · 2026The portal upgraded the S room butopened a hole at DL.OUTINCBCB: 1 out1net -1DLDL: 6 out6DL: 5 in5net -1EDGEEDGE: 1 out1EDGE: 1 in1net 0IOLIOL: 4 out4IOL: 1 in1net -3LBLB: 2 out2LB: 2 in2net 0LSLS: 1 in1net +1OTOT: 1 out1OT: 2 in2net +1QBQB: 1 out1QB: 2 in2net +1RBRB: 3 out3RB: 1 in1net -2SS: 1 out1S: 3 in3net +2TETE: 1 in1net +1WRWR: 5 out5WR: 4 in4net -1▸ Net -2 · upgraded S · hole at DL.Source: CFB Index — transfer portal in/out by position(count) · 2026 · 23 in / 25 out · high confidence
model-confident
2026 preview

Temple converts recruit talent into draft picks better than its class rank suggests.

Temple converts recruit talent into draft picks better than its class rank suggests.Talent 14th, draft yield 35th among 132 programs. Source: CFB Index — recruit talent vs draft-pick yield · 2025 · 132 programs · high confidenceTEMPLE · TALENT YIELDTemple converts recruit talent intodraft picks better than its class ranksuggests.Recruit talent (percentile) →Draft yield (percentile) →Georgia — 99 / 99 pctileBaylor — 73 / 35 pctileWashington State — 28 / 64 pctileCentral Michigan — 8 / 43 pctileOld Dominion — 7 / 51 pctileTemple — 14 / 35 pctileTempleWashington StateOld DominionCentral MichiganGeorgiaBaylor▸ Talent 14th, draft yield 35th among 132 programs.Source: CFB Index — recruit talent vs draft-pick yield ·2025 · 132 programs · high confidence
model-confident
2024 season

Calm on the surface in 2024 — but the weekly trend ran the wrong way.

Calm on the surface in 2024 — but the weekly trend ran the wrong way.calm on the surface, but trending the wrong way. Source: CFB Index — per-game power-rating swings · 2024 · 10 games · high confidenceTHE WEEK-TO-WEEK RIDE · 2024Calm on the surface in 2024 — but theweekly trend ran the wrong way.Game 1: -0.27 power swingGame 2: -0.27 power swingGame 3: -0.61 power swingGame 4: -0.61 power swingGame 5: -0.62 power swingGame 6: -0.62 power swingGame 7: +0.04 power swingGame 8: +0.04 power swingGame 9: -1.39 power swingGame 10: -1.39 power swing-1.4▲ stock-up week▼ stock-down week▸ calm on the surface, but trending the wrong way.Source: CFB Index — per-game power-rating swings · 2024 · 10games · high confidence
model-confident
2024 season

W 45-29 vs Utah State leads the season's top 5 results by combined power and résumé delta.

W 45-29 vs Utah State leads the season's top 5 results by combined power and résumé delta.W 45-29 vs Utah State is the biggest mover. Source: CFB Index — results ranked by combined power + résumé impact · top 5 games · medium confidenceSTATEMENT WINS · TOP 5 RESULTSW 45-29 vs Utah State leads the season'stop 5 results by combined power andrésumé delta.W 45-29 vs Utah StateW 45-29 vs Utah State — +0.46 résumé impactW 45-29 vs Utah State — +0.46 résumé impact+0.46L 20-28 vs Coastal CarolinaL 20-28 vs Coastal Carolina — -0.11 résumé impact-0.11L 3-51 vs OklahomaL 3-51 vs Oklahoma — -0.27 résumé impact-0.27L 11-38 vs NavyL 11-38 vs Navy — -1.02 résumé impact-1.02L 14-42 vs ArmyL 14-42 vs Army — -1.45 résumé impact-1.45▸ W 45-29 vs Utah State is the biggest mover.Source: CFB Index — results ranked by combined power +résumé impact · top 5 games · medium confidence
solid read
THE SAVANT CARD · Temple · 2025

Temple reads strongest in passing epa (top 24%) and explosive plays allowed (top 43%); the crux lives in rushing epa allowed, where Temple sits at the 6th percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.17
54th
Success Rate +0.43
53rd
Explosive Plays +1.18
16th
Rushing EPA +0.01
18th

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed +0.25
10th
Success Rate Allowed +0.44
18th
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.25
57th
Passing EPA Allowed +0.39
14th

hidden math · special situations

Passing EPA +0.38
77th
Rushing EPA Allowed +0.20
7th
ELITE · 90+STRONG · 70+AVERAGE · 40-70CONCERN · 10-40BOTTOM · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · opponent-adjusted · 12 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 139 FBS peers
How the room reactedreal evidence · tap rooms to explore
DEVELOPING · TEMPLE · COACHING Confidence

The K.C. Keeler era at Temple: where it actually stands.

K.C. Keeler took over as Temple's head coach, replacing Everett Withers. It is the program's third head coach in five seasons. The hire is settled; what matters now is the gap between the name on the door and the results on the field. The room is split — the case for and the case against are both specific.

bullish — but with real dissent where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics1 doubt take
Believers3 bull takes
DEVELOPING1 new this week
6 days agoK.C. Keeler Thinks Temple Is Ready to Compete — Athlon Sports
4 weeks agoTemple Football Preview 2026: KC Keeler Is Building a Winner — College Football News
Feb 3Temple coach K.C. Keeler didn’t lose any starters to the transfer portal: ‘They saw the vision’ — Inquirer.com
THE CAST who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
KK
K.C Keeler Head coach
“K.C. Keeler Thinks Temple Is Ready to Compete” — Athlon Sports · 2026-06-16
EW
Everett Withers Out
IR
Is Ready
“K.C. Keeler Thinks Temple Is Ready to Compete” — Athlon Sports · 2026-06-16
CFB INDEX READ · our read
Keeler begins his first season with 100% production returning but a #113 talent rank — the Owls' last AAC title under Rhule feels like another era.
Source of record: K.C. Keeler took over as Temple's head coach, replacing Everett Withers — the program's third head coach in five seasons.

Every line is a door. Evidence opens in place — verbatim outlet headlines for news sources, verbatim fan text attributed to the community not the individual (never a username). Works with JavaScript off.

HOW EACH ROOM REACTED — TAP TO EXPAND
The Believers bullishThe Skeptics no dissentThe Dominoes active
📣THE BELIEVERS3 bullish/recruiting items — the case it's working.

The optimistic read: recruiting wins, momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.

“Temple Football Preview 2026: KC Keeler Is Building a Winner”
College Football News · 2026-05-24 · read ↗
“K.C. Keeler addressed Temple’s needs in the transfer portal. First, he recruited his locker room.”
Inquirer.com · 2026-01-20 · read ↗
“Temple Secures First Win in the K.C. Keeler Era at Massachusetts”
owlsports.com · 2025-08-30 · read ↗
🧐THE SKEPTICSNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.

The analytical counter: rankings, results and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.

Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.

🔗THE DOMINOES14 downstream moves — the hire's knock-on effects.

The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.

“Sincere Hester Commits to Temple Football”
Wunderfan · 2026-06-19 · read ↗
“Ranking Temple’s Five Most Impactful Transfer Additions for 2026”
PA Football News · 2026-06-18 · read ↗
Act III

Last Season Reviewed

2025 season · tap to expand

Recent Form · last 10 games

Cold

One of five. The film room is busy this week.

Streak L4Last 5 · 1-4Last 10 · 3-7

Season Standing · 2025 · 5-7

FBS sub-.500

Temple: Below .500 in FBS play. The rebuild bar.

Sub-FBSBuildingBowlRankedContenderPlayoff

American Athletic Standing · 2025

9th in the American Athletic

Temple is 9th of 14 in the American Athletic at 5-7. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.

#ProgramRecord
1North Texas12-2
2Navy11-2
3Tulane11-3
4East Carolina9-4
5South Florida9-4
6Memphis8-5
7Army7-6
8UTSA7-6
9Temple5-7
10Rice5-8
11Florida Atlantic4-8
12Tulsa4-8
13UAB4-8
14Charlotte1-11

Schedule Strength · Temple · 2025

Brutal

Average opponent win rate 54% across 12 finalized games. 5 AP top-25 opponents played (Georgia Tech, Tulane, Oklahoma +2 more).

Opp Win %0.546
Top-255
Top-102

Top Players · 2025

2025
1. Curly Ordonez LB 69.0 tot (def)
2. Avery Powell S 54.0 tot (def)
3. Jevyon Ducker RB 809 yds (rush)
4. Evan Simon QB 2,098 yds (pass)
5. Jaylen Castleberry CB 45.0 tot (def)

NFL Draft Pipeline

2024–2024

Thin

1 picks last 5 cycles. Roster development still maturing.

1 picks · 0 R1
#139 Jordan Magee Linebacker · 2024 · Washington

Moment of the Year · Temple · 2025

Lost 3-42 vs Oklahoma

Week 3 of 2025. A reckoning loss — the data point the next season must answer.

Decisive Marginvs AP #13

From the Archive — Temple

2022: Won 54-28 vs South Florida

In 2022, the program won 54-28 vs South Florida — a comfortable home result that left the 26-point margin on the books.

Temple Made. Philadelphia roars.