South Florida is the American Athletic program whose Charlie Strong tenure + 2024 7-6 Alex Golesh rebuild + Big East historical legacy define what Tampa Bay football survival looks like.
Rocky the Bull is patient.
South Florida went from not existing in 1996 to No. 2 in the country by 2007 — then spent a decade in the wreckage, until a 2025 offense that hung 43 a game and beat two ranked teams in eight days put the Bulls back on the map.
Alex Golesh rebuilt USF into a 9-4, top-ten-scoring team in 2025 — opening with ranked wins over Boise State and at Florida, reaching No. 18 — then left for Auburn in late November before a Cure Bowl loss to Old Dominion. USF hire…
South Florida played its first game in 1997 and was ranked No. 2 in the country by 2007. In 2025, Alex Golesh rebuilt the Bulls into a 9-4 team scoring 43 points a game — then left for Auburn before the bowl. USF hired Brian Hartline. This story keeps restarting.
No program in modern college football climbed as fast as South Florida. Jim Leavitt built it from nothing — literally, a 1997 startup — beat Auburn in overtime, toppled West Virginia, and watched the polls put his Tampa team second in the country. The fall was proportional: Leavitt's firing in 2010, years of losing, near-irrelevance while the sport moved on. The Bulls spent a decade explaining what they used to be.
Alex Golesh gave the rebuild a legitimate answer. The 2025 Bulls opened by routing No. 25 Boise State 34-7, then won at Florida on a walk-off field goal eight days later — the first ranked wins since 2016. USF hit No. 18 in the polls and finished 9-4 behind an offense averaging 43 points a game. Then Golesh left for Auburn before the bowl, which USF lost, and the cycle that defined the program for fifteen years threatened to restart: build something real, watch the architect leave.
Brian Hartline — the former Ohio State OC, signed to a six-year, $21 million deal — is the next bet. The 2026 season is USF's last at Raymond James Stadium before an on-campus home opens, which makes it a threshold year in two directions. What 2026 answers is whether Hartline can hold the momentum Golesh built, or whether the Bulls are learning the lesson again that the rise is only as durable as the coach who runs it.
Explosive and tempo-driven — the Golesh-era identity was a top-ten scoring offense that played fast, spread the field, and trusted the recruiting base in talent-rich Florida to provide the athletes to run it. Raymond James is a cavernous NFL stadium that makes even good crowds look sparse; the on-campus stadium opening in 2027 is designed to change that equation. Hartline's Ohio State background is pass-game-centric and NFL-development-oriented — a credentialing that fits the USF brand of football even as the system details are still emerging.
South Florida fields an elite offense behind a strong, gives up the big play defense.
Identity computed from opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate, explosiveness, and run/pass volume — percentiles vs all FBS.
Offseason
69 days
until kickoff · Sun Aug 30 · 17:00 UTC
The team enters with a high returning player percentage and strong transfer additions, but faces challenges in key positions.
Recruiting Class
#65 nationally
2025 cycle · 247 composite rating 188.8
Outside the recruiting top 60. Roster gaps must close via portal.
Returning Production
100%
2025 cycle · CFBD weighted
Top-tier continuity. QB returns.
Talent Composite
#61 nationally
2025 cycle · 247 composite 666.9
Outside the talent top 60. The wins must be earned in development.
Portal Movement
44 in / 34 out
2026 cycle · in 44 / out 34
Portal additions outpace losses; position detail lives in Roster Reload.
the open questionis the portal class enough to move the needle?
South Florida signed a top-17 transfer-portal class — 44 additions headlined by Luke Kromenhoek (QB) from Mississippi State and Michael Van Buren Jr. (QB) from LSU.
South Florida signed a top-81 transfer-portal class — 23 additions headlined by Izaiah Guy (CB) from Georgia State and Chas Nimrod (WR) from Tennessee.
LB Michael Harris transfer commits from Maryland
Big Ten linebacker experience landing in the AAC — Golesh is stocking the middle of this defense with guys who've already seen real blocking schemes.
EDGE Harrysson Ngassa transfer commits from Illinois
Big Ten castoff or hidden rotation piece — either way, Golesh keeps raiding Power corridors to stock a pass rush that was dead last in the AAC in sacks two years ago.
What moved it — offseason · last 30 days
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Brief Part III §33.4 · South Florida
Above the program's recent baseline.
Statement win that reshapes recruiting.
Plausible breakthrough.
Beyond modern reach without a transformative year.
South Florida · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-06-22
Recruiting Reload - Top 3 commits
2026 classRecruiting Footprint · 2026
14FL leads the 2026 class with 10 commits. National footprint reaching 5 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
65 signees across 15 states, 2023-2026. FL leads the pull.
Most Similar Programs · South Florida
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Coaching Era · South Florida
Alex Golesh in year 3 of the rebuild. The methodology is taking shape.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 1997
Jim Leavitt — the program's first head coach, hired 1995 + coached from 1997-2009 — built USF from scratch through FCS to FBS to Big East entry. The 2007 season's #2 AP rank (briefly, after wins over Auburn + West Virginia) was the program's all-time peak moment. Leavitt's 2009 firing (player-abuse allegations) ended the era abruptly.
since 1998
USF plays home games in Raymond James Stadium — the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' NFL stadium. The 65,000+ capacity + pirate ship + professional production values create a venue experience unique among AAC programs. The lack of on-campus stadium is structural identity.
since 2017
Charlie Strong's 2017-2019 tenure — coming from the Texas firing — produced consecutive 10-2 and 7-6 seasons. The Strong era's recruiting + competitive cycles + AAC East division contention defined the post-Leavitt rebuild. Jeff Scott's 2020-2022 era followed; Alex Golesh's 2023-present tenure continues the rebuild.
Fanbase Health Index · South Florida · medium confidence
Home-Field Advantage · South Florida · 2018-present
53% home win rate vs 22% on the road. margin runs +15.3 better at home.
Statement Wins · 2025
3 wins over AP top-25 opponents. Headlined by #13 Florida.
South Florida reads strongest in passing epa (top 7%) and epa / play (top 10%); the crux lives in explosive plays allowed, where South Florida sits at the 16th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
South Florida signed a top-17 transfer-portal class — 44 additions headlined by Luke Kromenhoek (QB) from Mississippi State and Michael Van Buren Jr. (QB) from LSU. It is a top-3 portal class in the American Athletic this cycle.
Every line is a door. Evidence opens in place — verbatim outlet headlines for news sources, verbatim fan text attributed to the community not the individual (never a username). Works with JavaScript off.
The optimistic read: recruiting wins, momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 16 of 115 board posts (14%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice. Per-event for/against lands when event-level sentiment coverage is wired.
South Florida signed a top-81 transfer-portal class — 23 additions headlined by Izaiah Guy (CB) from Georgia State and Chas Nimrod (WR) from Tennessee.
Every line is a door. Evidence opens in place — verbatim outlet headlines for news sources, verbatim fan text attributed to the community not the individual (never a username). Works with JavaScript off.
The optimistic read: recruiting wins, momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 23 of 115 board posts (20%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice. Per-event for/against lands when event-level sentiment coverage is wired.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Three of five. Trending up, not yet hot.
Season Standing · 2025 · 9-4 · CFP #24 / AP #25
South Florida: Ranked in the AP/Coaches polls, 16-25. National relevance achieved.
American Athletic Standing · 2025
South Florida sits 5th of 14 in the American Athletic at 9-4. Mid-conference — moves up or down depend on rivalry results and the late-season closing run.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Texas | 12-2 |
| 2 | Navy | 11-2 |
| 3 | Tulane | 11-3 |
| 4 | East Carolina | 9-4 |
| 5 | South Florida | 9-4 |
| 6 | Memphis | 8-5 |
| 7 | Army | 7-6 |
| 8 | UTSA | 7-6 |
| 9 | Temple | 5-7 |
| 10 | Rice | 5-8 |
| 11 | Florida Atlantic | 4-8 |
| 12 | Tulsa | 4-8 |
| 13 | UAB | 4-8 |
| 14 | Charlotte | 1-11 |
Schedule Strength · South Florida · 2025
Average opponent win rate 56% across 13 finalized games. 6 AP top-25 opponents played (Navy, Florida, Miami +3 more).
Top Players · 2025
2025Moment of the Year · South Florida · 2025
Week 3 of 2025. A reckoning loss — the data point the next season must answer.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2025 — loss 10-24 (home). Last 5 postseason: 2-1.
From the Archive — South Florida
In 2023, the program won 27-23 vs Temple — a tight home result that left the 4-point margin on the books.
Go Bulls. Tampa Bay cheers.