Arizona State is the Big 12 newcomer whose 2024 11-3 + Big 12 championship + first-ever CFP appearance under Kenny Dillingham completed the rebuild from 2-19 to playoff team in three years.
Sparky waits with the pitchfork.
Arizona State was picked dead-last in the Big 12 and instead won the thing — an 11-3 league-champion, first-ever Playoff team built on Cam Skattebo's shoulders, the most joyful out-of-nowhere season the desert has had.
A year after the dream 11-3 Big 12 title and Playoff run, Arizona State fell to 8-5 (6-3) in 2025. Sam Leavitt suffered a season-ending foot injury against Baylor and entered the transfer portal; backup Jeff Sims, who started down…
Arizona State was picked dead-last in the Big 12 in 2024 and won the conference. A year later, with Cam Skattebo in the NFL and Sam Leavitt's foot in a boot, the Sun Devils went 8-5. Now Kenny Dillingham is rebuilding the quarterback room and asking a fair question: was 2024 a foundation or a ceiling?
The 2024 season was the most joyful out-of-nowhere run the desert has had since Jake Plummer took Arizona State to the Rose Bowl in 1996. Dillingham — a Tempe kid coaching his hometown school — rebuilt a 3-9 roster into an 11-3 Big 12 champion in three years, picked last in the preseason and treated as a fluke all season long. Cam Skattebo carried the offense, finishing as a Heisman finalist. The blue-chip programs that had never taken Tempe seriously were looking at a program that had beaten them to a Playoff berth. The Fork Up was genuine.
The 2025 answer was more complicated. Leavitt broke his foot against Baylor and eventually entered the transfer portal; backup Jeff Sims started down the stretch and then declared for the NFL Draft. Skattebo was gone. A Sun Bowl loss to Duke, 42-39, closed the year at 8-5. The internal fracture is a real one: the faction that sees a sustainable Dillingham program, culture-built and energy-driven, versus the faction bracing for the regression now that the two players who powered the breakthrough are both gone. Dillingham's answer entering 2026 is to find the next quarterback and prove the system creates stars rather than depending on them.
The 2026 Big 12 season will adjudicate the real question, which is not whether Arizona State can win 11 games again — it is whether the program has enough infrastructure to compete for the league title when it is not the team nobody respects until kickoff. Being the overlooked pick was Tempe's fuel in 2024. Getting picked higher changes the dynamic. Dillingham has earned the chance to manage that shift; the rebuilt quarterback room is what determines whether he gets to.
High-energy, downhill football under Dillingham — a scheme built on physical running and fast-pace tempo that weaponized Skattebo's carry-count in 2024. The identity underneath that season was a defense that played above its recruiting ranking, a chip-fueled home-field advantage in the desert heat, and a coaching staff that kept an undermanned roster running at the right moment in the Big 12 calendar. The 2026 version depends on who the new quarterback is and whether the offensive system transfers to a new arm.
Arizona State fields a limited offense behind a strong defense.
Identity computed from opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate, explosiveness, and run/pass volume — percentiles vs all FBS.
Offseason
69 days
until kickoff · Sun Aug 30 · 17:00 UTC
With 70% of its roster returning and a balanced transfer portal churn, Arizona State aims for a 9-4 season, leveraging its development class (#44) and high continuity.
Recruiting Class
#44 nationally
2025 cycle · 247 composite rating 203.4
Mid-major recruiting tier. Development becomes the lever.
Returning Production
70%
2025 cycle · CFBD weighted
Above-average continuity. QB returns.
Talent Composite
#33 nationally
2025 cycle · 247 composite 738.5
Mid-tier talent base. Coaching/scheme is the differentiator.
Portal Movement
24 in / 21 out
2026 cycle · in 24 / out 21
Incoming and outgoing movement are tracked separately in Roster Reload.
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
Arizona State enters 2025 rated No. 60 in SP+ (+3.9), down 25 spots from 2024.
Four-star QB Jake Fette commits 2026
Dillingham plants his flag early in '26 — a four-star signal-caller first in the class tells recruits the Sun Devils are building around the position again.
What moved it — offseason · last 30 days
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Brief Part III §33.4 · Arizona State
Above the program's recent baseline.
Statement win that reshapes recruiting.
Plausible breakthrough.
Beyond modern reach without a transformative year.
Arizona State · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-06-22
Recruiting Reload - Top 3 commits
2026 classRecruiting Footprint · 2026
15TX leads the 2026 class with 6 commits. National footprint reaching 7 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
57 signees across 15 states, 2023-2026. CA leads the pull.
Most Similar Programs · Arizona State
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Coaching Era · Arizona State
Kenny Dillingham in year 3 of the rebuild. The methodology is taking shape.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 1980s
The 'Fork Up' hand sign — three fingers held aloft like a pitchfork — is the Sun Devil fan identity marker. Used during every game, photographed at every recruit visit, raised after touchdowns. The pitchfork-as-mascot symbol fits the Sun Devil identity uniquely.
since 1946
Sparky the Sun Devil — designed in 1946 by Disney animator Berk Anthony — is one of CFB's most-distinctive mascot characters. The pitchfork-wielding devil + maroon-and-gold colors anchor every game-day visual.
since 2024
Kenny Dillingham's 2024 11-3 + Big 12 championship + first-ever CFP appearance — coming off a 3-9 floor in 2023 — is one of the most-improbable single-season turnarounds in CFB history. Cam Skattebo's Heisman-finalist running + Dillingham's age-34 youngest-P5-coach status created national narrative momentum.
Fanbase Health Index · Arizona State · medium confidence
Home-Field Advantage · Arizona State · 2018-present
60% home win rate vs 44% on the road. margin runs +1.0 better at home.
Statement Wins · 2025
3 wins over AP top-25 opponents. Headlined by #4 Texas Tech.
Arizona State reads strongest in rushing epa allowed (top 34%) and rushing epa (top 37%); the crux lives in success rate, where Arizona State sits at the 24th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Arizona State enters 2025 rated No. 60 in SP+ (+3.9), down 25 spots from 2024. SP+ is a tempo-free efficiency model — it describes what the program HAS done. The season is the test of whether it's still true. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
Every line is a door. Evidence opens in place — verbatim outlet headlines for news sources, verbatim fan text attributed to the community not the individual (never a username). Works with JavaScript off.
The optimistic read: recruiting wins, momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Three of five. Trending up, not yet hot.
Season Standing · 2025 · 8-5 · CFP #20 / AP #24
Arizona State: Ranked in the AP/Coaches polls, 16-25. National relevance achieved.
Big 12 Standing · 2025
Arizona State is 8th of 16 in the Big 12 at 8-5. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | BYU | 12-2 |
| 2 | Texas Tech | 12-2 |
| 3 | Utah | 11-2 |
| 4 | Houston | 10-3 |
| 5 | Arizona | 9-4 |
| 6 | TCU | 9-4 |
| 7 | Iowa State | 8-4 |
| 8 | Arizona State | 8-5 |
| 9 | Cincinnati | 7-6 |
| 10 | Kansas State | 6-6 |
| 11 | Baylor | 5-7 |
| 12 | Kansas | 5-7 |
| 13 | UCF | 5-7 |
| 14 | West Virginia | 4-8 |
| 15 | Colorado | 3-9 |
| 16 | Oklahoma State | 1-11 |
Schedule Strength · Arizona State · 2025
Average opponent win rate 59% across 13 finalized games. 6 AP top-25 opponents played (Utah, TCU, Iowa State +3 more).
Top Players · 2025
2025NFL Draft Pipeline
2022–202610 picks last 5 cycles. Reliable mid-tier pipeline.
Moment of the Year · Arizona State · 2025
Week 8 of 2025. Beat a top-7 opponent on the field.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2025 — loss 42-39 (away). Last 5 postseason: 0-2.
From the Archive — Arizona State
In 2022, the program lost 35-38 at Arizona — a close road result, 3 points either way.
Fork up. Tempe roars.