CFB Zeitgeist Score
14
Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by receptions at the 59th percentile.
TJ Horton
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
180 RUSH YDS · 0 RUSH TD · 60 CARRIES
2026 Outlook
Returning to Ball State for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Running back · Ball State
Returning around him
- 8% of 2024 offensive production back (Heavy turnover)
- Transfer portal: +6 net (24 in / 18 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Ball State · Last season: 4-8 · Talent rank #115 · 2026 recruiting class #119
RB · BALL STATE · MID-AMERICAN
TJ Horton
- 2
- #4
- 5-10 | 205 lb
- Lexington, KY
Heisman Heat
#4351
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR06 · Starter
Starter. A locked-in starting role.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
Ball State
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 3-star | 0.8283 | No. 1921 recruit | HighSchool | Ball State |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to Ball State
Composite
0.8283
#1921 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on TJ Horton
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
100
Grounded Optimism
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=1
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about TJ Horton
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 10g
180Rush yards
60Carries
0Rush TDs
Per game
18Rush yards
6Carries
0Rush TDs
Projected (13g)
234Rush yards
78Carries
0Rush TDs
To hit 750-yard season (currently 180): needs 190/game over remaining 3.
To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 180): needs 273.3/game over remaining 3.
To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 180): needs 440/game over remaining 3.
To hit 10 rushing TDs (currently 0): needs 3.3/game over remaining 3.
To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 0): needs 5/game over remaining 3.
To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 0): needs 6.7/game over remaining 3.
Why this is more than a rushing profile
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
TJ Horton is not a one-lane back. The profile is interesting because the workload spills beyond pure rushing volume: 180 rushing yards, 15 catches, and 274 return yards for Ball State. That kind of all-purpose footprint gives the card a much richer story than a basic carry total.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Passing-game back against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
60 63rd
YDS
180 52nd
YPC
3.0 15th
TD
0 40th
Receiving
REC
15 75th
YDS
71 59th
YPR
4.7 21st
TD
1 89th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 10 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 0-31@ Purdue | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | 4 | |
| Wk 3 | W 34-29vs New Hampshire | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 | 8 | |
| Wk 4 | L 25-31@ UConn | 6 | 41 | 6.8 | 0 | 13 | Season-high 41 yds |
| Wk 6 | W 20-14vs Ohio | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 | 11 | |
| Wk 7 | L 0-42@ Western Michigan | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 | 6 | |
| Wk 8 | W 42-28vs Akron | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 | 8 | |
| Wk 9 | L 7-21@ Northern Illinois | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 | 6 | |
| Wk 11 | W 17-13vs Kent State | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 | 1 | |
| Wk 12 | L 9-24vs Eastern Michigan | 12 | 33 | 2.8 | 0 | 13 | |
| Wk 13 | L 9-38@ Toledo | 8 | 3 | 0.4 | 0 | 4 | |
| Total | 60 | 180 | 3.1 | 0 | 13 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2025Ball State4-8HC: Mike Uremovich · Run-heavy, slow tempo
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Ball State | 60 | 180 | 3.0 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 1 loaded season | 60 | 180 | 3.0 | 0 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Ball State | 15 | 71 | 4.7 | 1 | -- |
| Career | 1 loaded season | 15 | 71 | 4.7 | 1 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 180 | #357/735 | 52nd pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 0 | #447/739 | 40th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 3.0 | #629/735 | 15th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 15 | #140/552 | 75th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 71 | #226/548 | 59th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | -0.05 | #359/362 | 1st pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 50 weighted playsvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 12.4% | #239/738 | 68th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 60 | #276/739 | 63rd pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 13 | #513/733 | 30th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 19 | #248/540 | 54th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 4.7 | #433/548 | 21st pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 1 | #60/552 | 89th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Returns | Kick return yards | 274 | #22/200 | 90th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Returns | Kick return avg | 24.9 | #28/199 | 86th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Returns | Kick returns | 11 | #24/206 | 89th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Returns | Kick return TD | 1 | #3/14 | 86th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 17.7% | #299/738 | 60th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 15.3% | #168/738 | 77th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 15.0% | #228/738 | 69th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 14.7% | #225/738 | 70th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 8.2% | #280/738 | 62nd pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 6.1% | #115/738 | 85th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 4.6% | #458/738 | 38th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 10 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home5g | 23.0 | 3.6 | 0.0 |
| Road5g | 13.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins4g | 20.5 | 3.9 | 0.0 |
| Losses6g | 16.3 | 2.6 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-75g | 21.8 | 3.4 | 0.0 |
| Weeks 8+5g | 14.2 | 2.7 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
14Below cohort
Concern: long run (1st).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_rushing-0.05Below (<p25) (n=178)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
TJ HortonBall StateTae MeadowsTroy· 50% simKamari MoultonIowa· 48% simRashod DubinionApp State· 48% sim
Receptions
Rec yards
Carries
Rush yards
Rush TDs
Yards / carry
Long run
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Satellite Back
Deployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles.
RB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Gavin Williams’s 2022 season.
Gavin Williams
75%match
#2
Dallan Hayden
73%
#3
Kalib Hicks
68%
#4
Clay Ash
69%
#5
Edward Saydee
68%
Matches Gavin on
Total rush EPA (college ability)
Yards / carry
Receiving share
Differs from Gavin on
Class year (lower)
Height (lower)
Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Ayden Pereira’s path through Merrimack.
Ayden Pereira
97%match
#2
Stevie Scott
96%
#3
JaMario Clements
92%
#4
Jason Collins Jr.
91%
#5
Josh Johnson
90%
Matches Ayden on
Yards per carry
As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Clay Ash's sophomore season at West Virginia (2025).
Clay Ash
74%match
#2
Jason Patterson
69%
#3
D'Eriq King
63%
#4
Austin Jones
64%
#5
Caden Williams
60%
Matches Clay on
Yards / carry
Total rush EPA (college ability)
Height
Differs from Clay on
Weight (higher)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Mike Uremovich
Pass share
38.2%
277 pass / 449 run
Plays / game
60.5
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
19.6%
265 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-heavy, slow tempo.
Coaching Lineage · 2025
1 coach2025
Mike Uremovich
Ball State
Played his entire career under Mike Uremovich.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownLexington, KY
Height5'10"
Weight205 lb
Class2
PositionRB
Jersey4
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamBall State
ConferenceMid-American
Joined2025
Career arc3 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Ball State | RB2 | #4351 | #4773 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Mid-American |
| 2023 | Ball State | RB2 | #4380 | #4509 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Mid-American |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Ball State | Mid-American | RB | 2 | No. 4 | 5-10 | 205 lb | Lexington, KY |
| 2024 | Ball State | Mid-American | RB | 2 | No. 4 | 5-10 | 205 lb | Lexington, KY |
| 2023 | Ball State | Mid-American | RB | 2 | No. 4 | 5-10 | 205 lb | Lexington, KY |