CFB Zeitgeist Score
3
Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by yards / carry at the 7th percentile.
Messiah Burch
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
41 RUSH YDS · 0 RUSH TD · 11 CARRIES
2026 Outlook
Returning to Buffalo for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Running back · Buffalo
Returning around him
- 66% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- 1 Buffalo player drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: +0 net (16 in / 16 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Buffalo · Last season: 5-7 · Talent rank #112 · 2026 recruiting class #92
RB · BUFFALO · MID-AMERICAN
Messiah Burch
- 2
- #4
- 5-10 | 190 lb
- Staten Island, NY
Heisman Heat
#978
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 1 · 2-deepR04 · Rotational
Rotational. Earning real snaps in the rotation.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · rushing yards
2024–2025-73%
Sharp dropoff (-73%) — career inflection point.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
—
CFB
College
Buffalo
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No recruiting profile is on file for this player. | ||
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Messiah Burch
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Messiah Burch
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 6g
41Rush yards
11Carries
0Rush TDs
Per game
6.8Rush yards
2Carries
0Rush TDs
Projected (13g)
88.8Rush yards
24Carries
0Rush TDs
To hit 750-yard season (currently 41): needs 101.3/game over remaining 7.
To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 41): needs 137/game over remaining 7.
To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 41): needs 208.4/game over remaining 7.
To hit 10 rushing TDs (currently 0): needs 1.4/game over remaining 7.
To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 0): needs 2.1/game over remaining 7.
To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 0): needs 2.9/game over remaining 7.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Messiah Burch's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Buffalo, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Backfield contributor against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
11 29th
YDS
41 26th
YPC
3.7 25th
TD
0 40th
Receiving
REC
4 38th
YDS
-1 2nd
YPR
-0.3 2nd
TD
0 70th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 6 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 10-23@ Minnesota | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Wk 2 | W 45-6vs St. Francis (PA) | 4 | 39 | 9.8 | 0 | 14 | Season-high 39 yds |
| Wk 3 | W 31-28@ Kent State | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 7 | |
| Wk 4 | L 17-21vs Troy | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 | |
| Wk 9 | L 16-24vs Akron | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wk 14 | L 26-31vs Ohio | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Total | 11 | 41 | 2.5 | 0 | 14 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2024Buffalo9-4HC: Maurice Linguist · Run-heavy
2025Buffalo5-7HC: Pete Lembo · Balanced
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 41 | #546/735 | 26th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 0 | #447/739 | 40th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 3.7 | #549/735 | 25th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 4 | #343/552 | 38th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | -1 | #538/548 | 2nd pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 4.0% | #593/738 | 20th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 14 | #488/733 | 34th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 11 | #525/739 | 29th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 4 | #504/540 | 7th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 0 | #169/552 | 70th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | -0.3 | #538/548 | 2nd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 5.6% | #524/738 | 29th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 4.9% | #566/738 | 23rd pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 4.7% | #643/738 | 13th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 4.0% | #611/738 | 17th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 3.2% | #287/738 | 61st pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 1.8% | #625/738 | 15th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 1.3% | #615/738 | 17th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 6 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home4g | 9.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 |
| Road2g | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins2g | 23.0 | 8.4 | 0.0 |
| Losses4g | -1.2 | -0.5 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-74g | 12.0 | 5.2 | 0.0 |
| Weeks 8+2g | -3.5 | -3.0 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
3Below cohort
Concern: rec yards (0th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Messiah BurchBuffaloJordan BrunsonMiami (OH)· 44% simChavon WrightNorthern Illinois· 44% simTae MeadowsTroy· 43% sim
Receptions
Yards / carry
Rush TDs
Long run
Rush yards
Carries
Rec yards
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Pete Lembo
Pass share
49.8%
409 pass / 413 run
Plays / game
68.5
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
7.4%
338 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2024–2025
2 coaches2024
Maurice Linguist
Buffalo
2025era →
Pete Lembo
Buffalo
Coaching transition mid-career: Maurice Linguist → Pete Lembo. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownStaten Island, NY
Height5'10"
Weight190 lb
Class2
PositionRB
Jersey4
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamBuffalo
ConferenceMid-American
Joined2025
Career arc3 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.