cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Jaren Hamilton /Arizona State

Jaren Hamilton

WR · Arizona State · Fr · #16

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

169 REC YDS · 7 REC · 0 REC TD

2026 RETURNINGReturning to Arizona State for 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to Arizona State for 2026

2026 Depth chart

Projected starter

Wide receiver · Arizona State

Returning around him

  • 70% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
  • 4 Arizona State players drafted to NFL
  • Transfer portal: +3 net (24 in / 21 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

Arizona State · Last season: 8-5 (AP #24) · Talent rank #33 · 2026 recruiting class #44

WR · ARIZONA STATE · BIG 12

Jaren Hamilton

  • 1
  • #16
  • 6-0 | 210 lb
  • Gainesville, FL

CFB Zeitgeist Score

31

Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by yards / catch at the 100th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#2322

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP WR AWARD

Biletnikoff

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 1 · 2-deep

R04 · Rotational

Rotational. Earning real snaps in the rotation.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★★
#238 national
CFB
College
2 teams
2024–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionWR
Class1
Jersey16
Measurements6-0 | 210 lb
HometownGainesville, FL
Primary teamArizona State

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 4-star No. 238 recruit
Composite rating 0.9159 HighSchool
Signed with Alabama 2023
Origin Buchholz Gainesville, FL, USA
Class Profile Context
2023 4-star | 0.9159 No. 238 recruit | HighSchool | Alabama

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 1 Programs changed on file
Latest destination Arizona State 2025
Transfer stars 3-star CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility Immediate Jan 13, 2025
Season Move Context
2025 Alabama -> Arizona State 3-star | 0.8700 | Immediate

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#2322Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#1810Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★★☆

to Alabama

Composite

0.9159

#238 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Jaren Hamilton

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Jaren Hamilton

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the receiving totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 10g
169Rec yards
7Receptions
0Rec TDs
Per game
16.9Rec yards
1Receptions
0Rec TDs
Projected (13g)
219.7Rec yards
9Receptions
0Rec TDs

To hit 700-yard receiver (currently 169): needs 177/game over remaining 3.

To hit 1,000-yard receiver (currently 169): needs 277/game over remaining 3.

To hit 60-catch season (currently 7): needs 17.7/game over remaining 3.

To hit 80-catch season (currently 7): needs 24.3/game over remaining 3.

To hit 8 receiving TDs (currently 0): needs 2.7/game over remaining 3.

To hit 10 receiving TDs (currently 0): needs 3.3/game over remaining 3.

What made this player interesting

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Jaren Hamilton's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Arizona State, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.

Current place #2322 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load 2.5% Overall usage share
Profile quirk Blue-chip pedigree No. 238 recruit

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

WR season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Receptions 7 0 rec TD | #667/1110 (40th pct)
Receiving yards 169 24.1 per catch | #510/1107 (54th pct)
Scrimmage yards 168 Total offensive yardage | #510/1107 (54th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Big-play receiver | All-purpose weapon against FBS receiving peers.

Big-play receiverAll-purpose weapon

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Receiving

REC
7 40th
YDS
169 54th
YPR
24.1 97th
TD
0 45th

Rushing

CAR
2 53rd
YDS
-1 18th
YPC
-0.5 16th
TD
0 81st

Returns

KR YDS
215 78th
KR AVG
19.5 53rd

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 10 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppRECYDSAVGTDLONGNote
Wk 2L 20-24@ Mississippi State
Wk 3W 34-15vs Texas State
Wk 4W 27-24@ Baylor
Wk 5W 27-24vs TCU14444.0044
Wk 7L 10-42@ Utah
Wk 8W 26-22vs Texas Tech310133.7049Season-high 101 yds
Wk 9L 16-24vs Houston2199.5012
Wk 10W 24-19@ Iowa State
Wk 12W 25-23vs West Virginia
BowlL 39-42@ Duke155.005
Total716923.1049
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2024Alabama9-4HC: Kalen DeBoer · Run-leaning
2025Arizona State8-5HC: Kenny Dillingham · Balanced
SeasonTeam
2025Arizona State716924.10--
2024Alabama----------
Career2 loaded seasons716924.10--
SeasonTeam
2025Arizona State2-1215----
2024Alabama----------
Career2 loaded seasons2-1215----
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Pass share

The player's share of a team's passing-game involvement. It is the fastest way to see whether the receiver is a true focal point or more of a complementary piece.

Role share

A blended workload view that accounts for catches, designed touches, and any return-game involvement that shapes the overall profile.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Usage 2.5% 4.3% pass-game share | #924/1137 (19th pct)
Return yards 215 0 return TD | #53/238 (78th pct)
Touchdowns 0 Across offense and returns | #615/1111 (45th pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Receiving Receptions 7 #667/1110 40th pct Volumevs FBS WR
Receiving Receiving yards 169 #510/1107 54th pct Volumevs FBS WR
Receiving Receiving TD 0 #615/1111 45th pct Scoringvs FBS WR
Receiving Yards / catch 24.1 #36/1106 97th pct Efficiencyvs FBS WR
Returns Kick return yards 215 #53/238 78th pct Volumevs FBS WR
Usage Pass share 4.3% #924/1137 19th pct Air-game usagevs FBS WR
Rushing Carries 2 #194/407 53rd pct Volumevs FBS WR
Rushing Rush TD 0 #81/411 81st pct Scoringvs FBS WR
Rushing Yards / carry -0.5 #330/393 16th pct Efficiencyvs FBS WR
Rushing Rushing yards -1 #328/397 18th pct Volumevs FBS WR
Receiving Receiving LONG 49 #283/1105 74th pct Metricvs FBS WR
Returns Kick return avg 19.5 #112/236 53rd pct Efficiencyvs FBS WR
Returns Kick returns 11 #50/243 80th pct Volumevs FBS WR
Usage 3rd-down usage 4.2% #713/1137 37th pct Money-down loadvs FBS WR
Usage 1st-down usage 4.0% #560/1137 51st pct Early-down loadvs FBS WR
Usage Standard-down usage 3.1% #669/1137 41st pct Base-situation sharevs FBS WR
Usage Role share 2.5% #868/1137 24th pct Share of team offensevs FBS WR
Usage Passing-down usage 1.4% #988/1137 13th pct Known-passing sharevs FBS WR
Usage Rush share 0.9% #211/1137 82nd pct Ground-game usagevs FBS WR
Usage 2nd-down usage 0.0% #993/1137 13th pct Middle-down loadvs FBS WR

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 10 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Home5g1.232.829.10.0
Road5g0.21.05.00.0

Win vs Loss

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Wins6g0.724.238.90.0
Losses4g0.86.07.20.0

First half vs Second half

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Weeks 1-76g0.38.224.50.0
Weeks 8+4g1.230.021.60.0

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort

31Below cohort
7 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: yards / catch (99th). Concern: receptions (0th).

Yards / catch#3 / 558 · 100th pct
24.1rece
Long catch#248 / 558 · 55th pct
49rece
Rush TDs#67 / 287 · 39th pct
0rush
Rush yards#241 / 287 · 15th pct
-1rush
Rec yards#502 / 558 · 10th pct
169rece
Rec TDs#482 / 558 · 7th pct
0rece
Receptions#559 / 558 · 0th pct
7rece

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · WR · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 7 metrics
Jaren HamiltonArizona StateHarrison Wallace IIIOle Miss· 47% simChauncy CobbArkansas State· 45% simChris Dawn Jr.Texas State· 44% sim
Yards / catch
100
Hamilton
78
III
25
Cobb
80
Jr.
Long catch
55
Hamilton
65
III
58
Cobb
96
Jr.
Rush TDs
39
Hamilton
39
III
39
Cobb
39
Jr.
Rush yards
15
Hamilton
20
III
12
Cobb
12
Jr.
Rec yards
10
Hamilton
94
III
87
Cobb
96
Jr.
Rec TDs
7
Hamilton
68
III
24
Cobb
68
Jr.
Receptions
0
Hamilton
90
III
98
Cobb
93
Jr.

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

DNA Match awaiting data — similarity scores compute once season stats clear the volume gate for this position cohort.

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Kenny Dillingham

Pass share

47.1%

429 pass / 482 run

Plays / game

70.1

13 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

7.8%

345 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Balanced.

Coaching Lineage · 2024–2025

1 coach
2024
Kenny Dillingham
Arizona State
2025
Kenny Dillingham
Arizona State

Played his entire career under Kenny Dillingham.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownGainesville, FL
Height6'0"
Weight210 lb
Class1
PositionWR
Jersey16

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Alabama WR1 #2322 #1810 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | SEC
2023 Alabama WR1 #2707 #2125 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | SEC

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Arizona State Big 12 WR 1 No. 16 | 6-0 | 210 lb | Gainesville, FL
2024 Alabama SEC WR 1 No. 16 | 6-0 | 210 lb | Gainesville, FL
2023 Alabama SEC WR 1 No. 16 | 6-0 | 210 lb | Gainesville, FL