Heisman / Players / Jake Retzlaff /Tulane

Jake Retzlaff

QB · Tulane · Jr · #12

Filling the Shoesas of 2026-06-22

Retzlaff posted 3,168 passing yards and 634 rushing yards at Tulane last season, then changed programs again heading into 2026.

3,168PASS YDS15PASS TD634RUSH YDS

RUSHING VALUE · WEPA

+0.37

via your WEPA model · 2025 · 121 plays

80th-percentile reputation, 68th-percentile tape — somewhere in that 12-point gap is who he really is.

Read the story so far

Last season Retzlaff threw for 3,168 yards and 15 touchdowns while adding 634 rushing yards and a +0.37 rushing value, earning American Conference recognition along the way. He had inherited the Tulane job from Darian Mensah, delivered, and then entered the portal again. That second move is the story now. BYU observers noted his departure with a shrug, one Reddit commenter reducing it to four words: 'Off to Tulane he goes.' The 2026 fit is unproven.

A player who has already restarted twice carries a résumé in one hand and a question mark in the other.

QB successioncontinuity

Inherited fromDarian Mensah 2★

Why nowHe changed programs heading into 2026 — a fresh fit to prove out.

season totals
via your WEPA model · 2025 · 121 plays
throne-line + Filling-the-Shoes

AI narrative · updated 2026-06-22 · compiled from CFB Zeitgeist data

2026 RETURNINGReturning to Tulane for 2026As of Jun 22, 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to Tulane for 2026

2026 Depth chart

Projected starter

Quarterback · Tulane

Returning around him

15% of 2024 offensive production back (Heavy turnover)
Transfer portal: -7 net (20 in / 27 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

Tulane · Last season: 11-3 (AP #17) · Talent rank #68 · 2026 recruiting class #74

QB · TULANE · AMERICAN ATHLETIC

Jake Retzlaff

3
#12
6-1 | 205 lb
Corona, CA

CFB Zeitgeist Score

Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by yards / att at the 81st percentile.

Heisman Heat

4.6% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

4.6%

TOP QB AWARD

Davey O'Brien

In contention

CONSENSUS

All-American

—

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 4 · Elite

R12 · All-American

All-American. Named to an NCAA-recognized All-America team.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Aura™ · Him Watch the full board →

Hype = tape +12aura tax

Fans rank this player in the 80th percentile of QBs; the tape says 67th — the discourse is fair.

Aura — fan perception80th pctl

Production — on-field67th pctl

n=25 mentions · cohort: QBs · 160 qualified · perception = conversation volume, production = wepa_passing

Career arc · Season-by-season Standing

3 seasons on the ladder

Peak: R08 Watch-list name · 2024

2023

BYU · QB

—

★

2024

BYU · QB

R08 · Watch-list name

Recognized

2025

Tulane · QB

—

Development Trajectory · passing yards

2023–2025

6482023

2,8962024

3,1682025

+389%

Up 389% from first season to most-recent.

Career Arc

Recruit

★★★

#78 national

CFB

College

2 teams

2023–2025

NFL

NFL Draft

—

Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionQB

Class3

Jersey12

Measurements6-1 | 205 lb

HometownCorona, CA

Primary teamTulane

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 78 recruit

Composite rating 0.8556 JUCO

Signed with BYU 2023

Origin Riverside C.C. Corona, CA, USA

Class	Profile	Context
2023	3-star \| 0.8556	No. 78 recruit \| JUCO \| BYU

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 1 Programs changed on file

Latest destination -- 2025

Transfer stars 4-star CFBD transfer rating context

Eligibility Immediate Jun 30, 2025

Season	Move	Context
2025	BYU -> --	4-star \| 0.9000 \| Immediate

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16

Current nowcast#8Latest modeled ballot order

Season forecast#7Where the full season sim points

Win probability4.6%Chance to actually win the trophy

Finalist probability24.5%Chance to make the finalist tier

Ballot probability95.4%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot

Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

Achievements

Volume King 1.3%
Program Benchmark 5.5%

Selector Grid · 2025

AP—

FWAA—

AFCA—

WCFF—

SN—

SI—

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to BYU

Composite

0.8556

#78 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

Belief Meter

Quietly Bullish

Sample 21 mentions

Confidence MEDIUM

Top Take

Trajectory

Cohort divergence map

Own fans · n=21
Rivals · n=8

Obsession score 5

Rival mentions 8

Weeks on radar 2

Peak moment Week 0 · 4 mentions

Grudging respect 0% Neutral 75% Mockery 25%

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the passing totals stand

final

Through 14g

3,168Pass yards

15Pass TDs

7INT

Per game

226.3Pass yards

1Pass TDs

0INT

Final

3,168Pass yards

15Pass TDs

7INT

✓ Hit 3,000-yard season · finished with 3,168.

Why this is a two-channel quarterback case

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

The unusual part of Jake Retzlaff's case is that the production comes in two channels, not one. For Tulane, he has 3,168 passing yards and 15 touchdown passes, but he also adds 634 rushing yards and 16 rushing scores. That kind of dual-threat load tends to create a more resilient Heisman case because the offense can tilt the game in multiple ways.

Current place #8 4.6% win | 24.5% finalist

Role load 53.0% Overall usage share

Profile quirk Transfer path 1 portal move

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

QB season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level

Pass yards 3,168 15 TD | 7 INT | #26/382 (93rd pct)

Completion rate 61.9% 242/391 completions | #184/383 (52nd pct)

Yards/attempt 8.1 Explosiveness through the air | #86/382 (78th pct)

Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

High-volume passer | Dual-threat against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.

High-volume passerDual-threat

Passing Efficiency

CMP

242 89th

ATT

391 93rd

CMP%

61.9% 52nd

Y/A

8.1 78th

Passing Production

YDS

3,168 93rd

15 83rd

INT

7 23rd

Rushing

CAR

129 92nd

YDS

634 95th

YPC

4.9 76th

16 100th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 14 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	Note
Wk 1	W 23-3vs Northwestern	18/31	152	1	0	4.9	77.7
Wk 2	W 33-31@ South Alabama	13/24	125	1	0	5.2	74.5
Wk 3	W 34-27vs Duke	15/23	245	0	0	10.7	94.7
Wk 4	L 10-45@ Ole Miss	5/17	56	0	0	3.3	37.2
Wk 5	W 31-14@ Tulsa	17/30	242	0	0	8.1	59.0
Wk 7	W 26-19vs East Carolina	26/36	347	2	0	9.6	79.6	Season-high 347 yds
Wk 8	W 24-17vs Army	22/29	261	2	1	9.0	89.9
Wk 10	L 26-48@ UTSA	14/28	194	1	2	6.9	58.3
Wk 11	W 38-32@ Memphis	16/23	332	3	0	14.4	95.4	3 TD passes
Wk 12	W 35-24vs Florida Atlantic	18/27	241	2	1	8.9	67.5
Wk 13	W 37-13@ Temple	17/28	231	2	0	8.3	68.6
Wk 14	W 27-0vs Charlotte	28/38	291	0	2	7.7	39.3
Wk 15	W 34-21vs North Texas	13/22	145	0	0	6.6	76.9
Bowl	L 10-41@ Ole Miss	20/35	306	1	1	8.7	37.9
Total		242/391	3168	15	7	8.0	68.3

Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2023BYU5-7HC: Kalani Sitake · Balanced

2024BYU11-2HC: Kalani Sitake · Run-leaning

2025Tulane11-3HC: Jon Sumrall · Run-leaning

Season	Team
2025	Tulane	242	391	61.9%	3,168	8.1	15	7	139.0	--	--
2024	BYU	211	367	57.5%	2,896	7.9	19	12	134.3	--	--
2023	BYU	63	125	50.4%	648	5.2	3	3	97.1	--	--
Career	3 loaded seasons	516	883	58.4%	6,712	7.6	37	22	131.1	--	--

Season	Team
2025	Tulane	129	634	4.9	16	--
2024	BYU	100	417	4.2	6	--
2023	BYU	51	116	2.3	3	--
Career	3 loaded seasons	280	1,167	4.2	25	--

Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context

Passing WEPA

Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.

Role share

How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Rush impact 634 16 rush TD | #21/408 (95th pct)

Usage 53.0% 90.5% pass share | 21.9% rush share | #57/428 (87th pct)

Passing WEPA +0.33 Opponent-adjusted passing value | #57/200 (72nd pct)

Open full stat explorer

Group	Metric	Value	Rank	Pct	Why it matters
Passing	Passing yards	3,168	#26/382	93rd pct	Volumevs FBS QB
Passing	Pass TD	15	#71/407	83rd pct	Scoringvs FBS QB
Passing	Completions	242	#44/383	89th pct	Volumevs FBS QB
Passing	Completion %	61.9%	#184/383	52nd pct	Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Passing	Yards / attempt	8.1	#86/382	78th pct	Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Rushing	Rushing yards	634	#21/408	95th pct	Volumevs FBS QB
Value	Passing WEPA	+0.33	#57/200	72nd pct	Opponent-adjusted passing value \| 396 weighted playsvs FBS QB
Usage	Role share	53.0%	#57/428	87th pct	Share of team offensevs FBS QB
Passing	Attempts	391	#31/407	93rd pct	Volumevs FBS QB
Passing	Interceptions	7	#316/407	23rd pct	Turnoversvs FBS QB
Rushing	Carries	129	#32/408	92nd pct	Volumevs FBS QB
Rushing	Rushing LONG	69	#12/391	97th pct	Metricvs FBS QB
Rushing	Rush TD	16	#3/408	100th pct	Scoringvs FBS QB
Rushing	Yards / carry	4.9	#100/407	76th pct	Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Usage	Pass share	90.5%	#54/428	88th pct	Air-game usagevs FBS QB
Usage	3rd-down usage	74.1%	#21/428	95th pct	Money-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage	Passing-down usage	61.3%	#101/428	77th pct	Known-passing sharevs FBS QB
Usage	Standard-down usage	49.6%	#36/428	92nd pct	Base-situation sharevs FBS QB
Usage	2nd-down usage	48.2%	#93/428	79th pct	Middle-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage	1st-down usage	46.7%	#53/428	88th pct	Early-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage	Rush share	21.9%	#53/428	88th pct	Ground-game usagevs FBS QB
Value	Rushing WEPA	+0.37	#18/140	88th pct	Opponent-adjusted rushing value \| 121 weighted playsvs FBS QB
Ball Security	Fumbles lost	4	#237/258	9th pct	Turnoversvs FBS QB

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

Status—Awaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 14 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home7g	240	1.0	8.2	0.6
Road7g	212	1.1	7.8	0.4

Win vs Loss

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Wins11g	237	1.2	8.5	0.4
Losses3g	185	0.7	6.3	1.0

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-77g	210	0.7	7.2	0.1
Weeks 8+7g	242	1.4	8.8	0.9

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

65Solid starter

8 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: rush tds (98th). Strength: rush yards (88th). Concern: fumbles lost (8th).

Rush TDs#3 / 183 · 98th pct

16rush

Rush yards#21 / 183 · 89th pct

634rush

Pass yards#26 / 183 · 86th pct

3168pass

Yards / att#34 / 183 · 81st pct

8.1pass

Pass TDs#71 / 183 · 60th pct

15pass

Completion %#101 / 183 · 45th pct

61.9%pass

Interceptions#92 / 183 · 44th pct

7pass

Fumbles lost#154 / 174 · 8th pct

4fumb

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Pass Profile · Completion depth (PBP)

Where the throws are landing

111/187 (59.4%) · 5 TD · 1 INT

Short

0–9 yds

39%of completions

43 comp5.2 yds avg2 TD

Middle

10–19 yds

48%of completions

53 comp13.8 yds avg1 TD

Deep

20+ yds

14%of completions

15 comp31.1 yds avg2 TD

Overall 59.4% completion on 187 attempts · 15 deep completions averaging 31.1 yds.

EPA / dropback0.330

56th pct

CPOE—

awaiting

Success rate—

awaiting

Explosive rate (20+)—

awaiting

aDOT—

awaiting

Deep-ball accuracy—

awaiting

Pressure-to-sack—

awaiting

3rd-down EPA—

awaiting

Red-zone TD rate—

awaiting

Play-action EPA—

awaiting

Scramble EPA—

awaiting

Turnover-worthy play rate—

awaiting

wepa_passing0.33Mid (p50–p75) (n=94)High (p75–p90) (n=106)Mid (p50–p75) (n=200)

wepa_rushing0.37High (p75–p90) (n=72)Elite (≥p90) (n=68)High (p75–p90) (n=140)

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 8 metrics

Jake RetzlaffTulaneBear BachmeierBYU· 90% simBryson BarnesUtah State· 88% simAnthony ColandreaUNLV· 83% sim

Rush TDs

98
Retzlaff

93
Bachmeier

91
Barnes

91
Colandrea

Rush yards

89
Retzlaff

83
Bachmeier

93
Barnes

90
Colandrea

Pass yards

86
Retzlaff

81
Bachmeier

75
Barnes

91
Colandrea

Yards / att

81
Retzlaff

73
Bachmeier

75
Barnes

84
Colandrea

Pass TDs

60
Retzlaff

60
Bachmeier

72
Barnes

82
Colandrea

Completion %

45
Retzlaff

69
Bachmeier

32
Barnes

77
Colandrea

Interceptions

44
Retzlaff

44
Bachmeier

67
Barnes

22
Colandrea

Fumbles lost

8
Retzlaff

18
Bachmeier

18
Barnes

18
Colandrea

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Dual Threat

Dangerous with both arm and legs — defenses can't just pin the ears back.

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Anthony Colandrea’s 2025 season.

Anthony Colandrea

72%match

UNLV · 2025

All-Mountain West

Brady Cook

Missouri · 2022

66%

Todd Centeio

Colorado State · 2021

66%

Jaren Hall

BYU · 2021

NFL Rd 5

64%

Spencer Sanders

Oklahoma State · 2021

All-Big 12

64%

Matches Anthony on

Total pass EPA (college ability)

INT rate

Height

Differs from Anthony on

TD rate (lower)

Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Timmy McClain’s path through Bethune-Cookman.

Timmy McClain

91%match

Bethune-Cookman · 2025

Logan Bonner

Utah State · 2022

90%

Ryan Staub

Colorado · 2025

86%

Dennis Grosel

Boston College · 2021

85%

Jake Constantine

Rice · 2021

84%

Matches Timmy on

Height

Yards per attempt

Completion %

As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Anthony Colandrea's junior season at UNLV (2025).

Anthony Colandrea

73%match

UNLV · 2025

All-Mountain West

Brady Cook

Missouri · 2022

68%

John Rhys Plumlee

UCF · 2022

65%

JC French

Georgia Southern · 2025

62%

Owen McCown

UTSA · 2024

60%

Matches Anthony on

Total pass EPA (college ability)

INT rate

Height

Differs from Anthony on

TD rate (lower)

Completion % (lower)

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Jon Sumrall

Pass share

45.8%

424 pass / 501 run

Plays / game

66.1

14 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

3.4%

294 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Run-leaning.

Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025

2 coaches

2023

Slade Nagle

Tulane

2024

Jon Sumrall

Tulane

era →

2025

Jon Sumrall

Tulane

Coaching transition mid-career: Slade Nagle → Jon Sumrall. Worth noting in scheme + development context.

HometownCorona, CA

Height6'1"

Weight205 lb

Class3

PositionQB

Jersey12

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season	Honor	Scope	Team / Selector	Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season	Team	Role	Latest Model	Forecast	Win	Finalist	Official Finish	Points	Context
2024	BYU	QB3	#8	#7	4.6%	24.5%	--	--	W16 snapshot \| Big 12
2023	BYU	QB3	#723	#878	0.0%	0.0%	--	--	W19 snapshot \| Big 12

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season	Team	Conference	Pos	Class	Bio
2025	Tulane	American Athletic	QB	3	No. 12 \| 6-1 \| 205 lb \| Corona, CA
2024	BYU	Big 12	QB	3	No. 12 \| 6-1 \| 205 lb \| Corona, CA
2023	BYU	Big 12	QB	3	No. 12 \| 6-1 \| 205 lb \| Corona, CA

Jake Retzlaff

R12 · All-American

+389%

Identity & Role

Recruiting Pedigree

Transfer Arc

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

The Room on Jake Retzlaff

How rival fanbases talk about Jake Retzlaff

Awaiting candidate metric

Why this is a two-channel quarterback case

2025 Season · Final

QB season snapshot

What kind of player is this?

2025 Season · Final

Traditional Stats

Advanced Metrics

Player Standing

Percentile Card

Advanced Savant

The Dual Threat

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Trophy Case · Detail

No formal honors on the ledger yet

Honors Timeline

Heisman By Year

Roster Timeline