Heisman / Players / Bear Bachmeier /BYU

Bear Bachmeier

QB · BYU · Fr · #47

The Hope Economyas of 2026-06-22

Bear Bachmeier posted 3,033 passing yards and 527 rushing yards as a true freshman, then chose to stay.

3,033PASS YDS15PASS TD527RUSH YDS

PERCEPTION ABOVE TAPE · PCTL GAP

-24

perception vs production percentile · 2025

BYU fans overwhelmingly see Bachmeier as a bet worth making — not because last season's production proved it, but because the ceiling looks real and he turned down the portal to chase it at Provo.

high confidence130 sources

Minority viewA vocal minority argues the perception-above-tape gap, a -24 percentile split between reputation and film, means the hype is running well ahead of what he has actually shown.

The believers price him at the 96th percentile on what's coming; today's tape says 72nd. Which season settles it?

Read the story so far

Bachmeier threw for 3,033 yards and 15 touchdowns in 2025, added 527 rushing yards, and inherited a program with Big 12 title ambitions. He then confirmed he would not enter the transfer portal. BYU fans read that decision as conviction. Heading into 2026, with LJ Martin returning and national outlets listing BYU among Big 12 favorites, the question the fanbase is loudly asking is whether Bachmeier's second season turns belief into proof.

The numbers from last season opened the door; 2026 is where he either walks through it or doesn't.

QB successionleap of faith

Inherited fromJake Retzlaff 3★

Why nowHe changed programs heading into 2026 — a fresh fit to prove out.

season totals
perception vs production percentile · 2025
throne-line + Filling-the-Shoes
compiled from tagged fan discourse

AI narrative · updated 2026-06-22 · compiled from CFB Zeitgeist data

2026 RETURNINGReturning to BYU for 2026As of Jun 22, 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to BYU for 2026

2026 Depth chart

Projected starter

Quarterback · BYU

Returning around him

87% of 2024 offensive production back (Strong continuity)
2 BYU players drafted to NFL
Transfer portal: -4 net (9 in / 13 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

BYU · Last season: 12-2 (AP #12) · Talent rank #70 · 2026 recruiting class #55

QB · BYU · BIG 12

Bear Bachmeier

1
#47
6-2 | 220 lb
Murrieta, CA

CFB Zeitgeist Score

Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by yards / att at the 73rd percentile.

Heisman Heat

Awaiting

Not on the live Heisman board this week.

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

—

TOP QB AWARD

Davey O'Brien

—

CONSENSUS

All-American

—

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R07 · Impact starter

Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Aura™ · Him Watch the full board →

Aura tax +24aura tax

Fans rank this player in the 96th percentile of QBs; the tape says 71st — more hype than the tape.

Aura — fan perception96th pctl

Production — on-field71st pctl

n=177 mentions · cohort: QBs · 160 qualified · perception = conversation volume, production = wepa_passing

Career Arc

Recruit

★★★★

#424 national

CFB

College

BYU

2025

NFL

NFL Draft

—

Not drafted (yet)

Heisman futures · live sportsbook odds

#23 in market ▼ from #21 · 6 books

+60001.6% implied

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionQB

Class1

Jersey47

Measurements6-2 | 220 lb

HometownMurrieta, CA

Primary teamBYU

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 4-star No. 424 recruit

Composite rating 0.8933 HighSchool

Signed with Stanford 2025

Origin Murrieta Valley Murrieta, CA, USA

Class	Profile	Context
2025	4-star \| 0.8933	No. 424 recruit \| HighSchool \| Stanford

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 1 Programs changed on file

Latest destination BYU 2025

Transfer stars 3-star CFBD transfer rating context

Eligibility Immediate Apr 21, 2025

Season	Move	Context
2025	Stanford -> BYU	3-star \| 0.8500 \| Immediate

Heisman Lens

Where the model places this player relative to the rest of the Heisman field.

Current nowcast--Latest modeled ballot order

Season forecast--Where the full season sim points

Win probability--Chance to actually win the trophy

Finalist probability--Chance to make the finalist tier

Ballot probability--Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot

Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

Achievements

Volume King 1.3%
Program Benchmark 5.5%

Selector Grid · 2025

AP—

FWAA—

AFCA—

WCFF—

SN—

SI—

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★★☆

to Stanford

Composite

0.8933

#424 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

Belief Meter

Quietly Bullish

Sample 176 mentions

Confidence HIGH

Top Take

Trajectory

“Bear Bachmeier will be ready to handle big expectations in 2026    USA Today”

— fan · 0 similar takes

Cohort divergence map

Own fans · n=181
National · n=2

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

2025 Signature · 2025 season

Combined WEPA per play (pass + rush)

+0.348

EPA

P4 + Notre Dame QBs, min 280 touches

National rank #28 of 57

Percentile vs P4 + Notre Dame QBs, min 280 touches 52nd

Why it matters

#28 of 57 P4 + Notre Dame QBs in combined passing + rushing weighted-EPA per play — +0.348 EPA on 527 touches.

Vs cohort

This player +0.348 (52th)

HIGH · n=527 cohort 57

Also strong
WEPA per dropback#29 / 58
Total weighted-EPA passing#25 / 58
QB rushing weighted-EPA#14 / 46

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the passing totals stand

final

Through 14g

3,033Pass yards

15Pass TDs

7INT

Per game

216.6Pass yards

1Pass TDs

0INT

Final

3,033Pass yards

15Pass TDs

7INT

✓ Hit 3,000-yard season · finished with 3,033.

Why this is a two-channel quarterback case

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

The unusual part of Bear Bachmeier's case is that the production comes in two channels, not one. For BYU, he has 3,033 passing yards and 15 touchdown passes, but he also adds 527 rushing yards and 11 rushing scores. That kind of dual-threat load tends to create a more resilient Heisman case because the offense can tilt the game in multiple ways.

Current place -- -- win | -- finalist

Role load 54.1% Overall usage share

Profile quirk Blue-chip pedigree No. 424 recruit

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

QB season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level

Pass yards 3,033 15 TD | 7 INT | #35/382 (91st pct)

Completion rate 64.9% 251/387 completions | #131/383 (66th pct)

Yards/attempt 7.8 Explosiveness through the air | #103/382 (73rd pct)

Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

High-volume passer | Efficient | Dual-threat against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.

High-volume passerEfficientDual-threat

Passing Efficiency

CMP

251 92nd

ATT

387 92nd

CMP%

64.9% 66th

Y/A

7.8 73rd

Passing Production

YDS

3,033 91st

15 83rd

INT

7 23rd

Rushing

CAR

147 95th

YDS

527 92nd

YPC

3.6 61st

11 97th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 14 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	Note
Wk 1	W 69-0vs Portland State	7/11	97	3	0	8.8	66.5	3 TD passes
Wk 2	W 27-3vs Stanford	17/27	175	0	0	6.5	24.9
Wk 4	W 34-13@ East Carolina	18/25	246	1	0	9.8	85.9
Wk 5	W 24-21@ Colorado	19/27	179	2	0	6.6	77.6
Wk 6	W 38-24vs West Virginia	18/25	351	1	1	14.0	87.9	Season-high 351 yds
Wk 7	W 33-27@ Arizona	12/29	172	1	2	5.9	73.7
Wk 8	W 24-21vs Utah	13/22	166	1	0	7.5	87.4
Wk 9	W 41-27@ Iowa State	22/35	307	2	0	8.8	84.3	Clean 2-TD game
Wk 11	L 7-29@ Texas Tech	23/38	188	1	1	4.9	55.8
Wk 12	W 44-13vs TCU	23/33	296	1	0	9.0	93.2
Wk 13	W 26-14@ Cincinnati	15/25	127	0	0	5.1	68.8
Wk 14	W 41-21vs UCF	21/25	289	1	0	11.6	87.0
Wk 15	L 7-34@ Texas Tech	16/27	115	0	2	4.3	30.5
Bowl	W 25-21vs Georgia Tech	27/38	325	1	1	8.6	84.2
Total		251/387	3033	15	7	8.0	72.0

Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2025BYU12-2HC: Kalani Sitake · Run-leaning

Season	Team
2025	BYU	251	387	64.9%	3,033	7.8	15	7	139.9	--	--
Career	1 loaded season	251	387	64.9%	3,033	7.8	15	7	139.9	--	--

Season	Team
2025	BYU	147	527	3.6	11	--
Career	1 loaded season	147	527	3.6	11	--

Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context

Passing WEPA

Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.

Role share

How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Rush impact 527 11 rush TD | #32/408 (92nd pct)

Usage 54.1% 96.0% pass share | 23.4% rush share | #48/428 (89th pct)

Passing WEPA +0.34 Opponent-adjusted passing value | #49/200 (76th pct)

Open full stat explorer

Group	Metric	Value	Rank	Pct	Why it matters
Passing	Passing yards	3,033	#35/382	91st pct	Volumevs FBS QB
Passing	Pass TD	15	#71/407	83rd pct	Scoringvs FBS QB
Passing	Completions	251	#33/383	92nd pct	Volumevs FBS QB
Passing	Completion %	64.9%	#131/383	66th pct	Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Passing	Yards / attempt	7.8	#103/382	73rd pct	Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Rushing	Rushing yards	527	#32/408	92nd pct	Volumevs FBS QB
Value	Passing WEPA	+0.34	#49/200	76th pct	Opponent-adjusted passing value \| 395 weighted playsvs FBS QB
Usage	Role share	54.1%	#48/428	89th pct	Share of team offensevs FBS QB
Passing	Attempts	387	#35/407	92nd pct	Volumevs FBS QB
Passing	Interceptions	7	#316/407	23rd pct	Turnoversvs FBS QB
Rushing	Carries	147	#23/408	95th pct	Volumevs FBS QB
Rushing	Rushing LONG	22	#159/391	60th pct	Metricvs FBS QB
Rushing	Rush TD	11	#12/408	97th pct	Scoringvs FBS QB
Rushing	Yards / carry	3.6	#161/407	61st pct	Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Usage	Pass share	96.0%	#15/428	97th pct	Air-game usagevs FBS QB
Usage	3rd-down usage	71.1%	#35/428	92nd pct	Money-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage	Passing-down usage	65.7%	#72/428	83rd pct	Known-passing sharevs FBS QB
Usage	1st-down usage	52.4%	#20/428	96th pct	Early-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage	Standard-down usage	49.4%	#37/428	92nd pct	Base-situation sharevs FBS QB
Usage	2nd-down usage	46.6%	#106/428	75th pct	Middle-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage	Rush share	23.4%	#42/428	90th pct	Ground-game usagevs FBS QB
Value	Rushing WEPA	+0.37	#18/140	88th pct	Opponent-adjusted rushing value \| 132 weighted playsvs FBS QB
Ball Security	Fumbles lost	3	#213/258	18th pct	Turnoversvs FBS QB

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

Status—Awaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 14 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home7g	243	1.1	9.4	0.3
Road7g	191	1.0	6.5	0.7

Win vs Loss

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Wins12g	228	1.2	8.5	0.3
Losses2g	152	0.5	4.6	1.5

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-77g	221	1.3	8.6	0.6
Weeks 8+7g	213	0.9	7.3	0.4

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

67Solid starter

8 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: rush tds (93rd). Strength: rush yards (82nd). Concern: fumbles lost (18th).

Rush TDs#12 / 183 · 93rd pct

11rush

Rush yards#32 / 183 · 83rd pct

527rush

Pass yards#35 / 183 · 81st pct

3033pass

Yards / att#48 / 183 · 73rd pct

7.8pass

Completion %#56 / 183 · 69th pct

64.9%pass

Pass TDs#71 / 183 · 60th pct

15pass

Interceptions#92 / 183 · 44th pct

7pass

Fumbles lost#132 / 174 · 18th pct

3fumb

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Pass Profile · Completion depth (PBP)

Where the throws are landing

102/164 (62.2%) · 9 TD · 3 INT

Short

0–9 yds

47%of completions

48 comp5.2 yds avg4 TD

Middle

10–19 yds

30%of completions

31 comp14.0 yds avg1 TD

Deep

20+ yds

23%of completions

23 comp33.7 yds avg4 TD

Overall 62.2% completion on 164 attempts · 23 deep completions averaging 33.7 yds.

EPA / dropback0.340

59th pct

CPOE—

awaiting

Success rate—

awaiting

Explosive rate (20+)—

awaiting

aDOT—

awaiting

Deep-ball accuracy—

awaiting

Pressure-to-sack—

awaiting

3rd-down EPA—

awaiting

Red-zone TD rate—

awaiting

Play-action EPA—

awaiting

Scramble EPA—

awaiting

Turnover-worthy play rate—

awaiting

wepa_passing0.34Mid (p50–p75) (n=94)High (p75–p90) (n=106)High (p75–p90) (n=200)

wepa_rushing0.37High (p75–p90) (n=72)Elite (≥p90) (n=68)High (p75–p90) (n=140)

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 8 metrics

Bear BachmeierBYUJake RetzlaffTulane· 90% simKatin HouserEast Carolina· 88% simAnthony ColandreaUNLV· 87% sim

Rush TDs

93
Bachmeier

98
Retzlaff

86
Houser

91
Colandrea

Rush yards

83
Bachmeier

89
Retzlaff

60
Houser

90
Colandrea

Pass yards

81
Bachmeier

86
Retzlaff

89
Houser

91
Colandrea

Yards / att

73
Bachmeier

81
Retzlaff

81
Houser

84
Colandrea

Completion %

69
Bachmeier

45
Retzlaff

77
Houser

77
Colandrea

Pass TDs

60
Bachmeier

60
Retzlaff

75
Houser

82
Colandrea

Interceptions

44
Bachmeier

44
Retzlaff

56
Houser

22
Colandrea

Fumbles lost

18
Bachmeier

8
Retzlaff

8
Houser

18
Colandrea

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Pocket Surgeon

High-percentage passer who protects the ball. Loses the matchup on improvisation.

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Jaxson Dart’s 2022 season.

Jaxson Dart

66%match

Ole Miss · 2022

NFL Rd 1 · Pk 25

Anthony Brown

Oregon · 2021

66%

Jalen Milroe

Alabama · 2024

CampbellAll-SECNFL Rd 3 · Pk 28

66%

Dylan Hopkins

UAB · 2022

66%

John Mateer

Oklahoma · 2025

65%

Matches Jaxson on

Rush yards / carry

Differs from Jaxson on

Class year (lower)

Recruiting rating (lower)

INT rate (lower)

Through 1 college season, his career arc tracks closest to Bailey Zappe’s path through Western Kentucky.

Bailey Zappe

95%match

Western Kentucky · 2021

All-Conference USANFL Rd 4

Eli Peters

Toledo · 2020

88%

Josh Hoover

TCU · 2025

83%

Dustin Crum

Kent State · 2021

All-MAC

82%

Jaren Hall

BYU · 2022

NFL Rd 5

82%

Matches Bailey on

Height

Yards per attempt

Completion %

As a freshman, his production profile tracks closest to Mason Heintschel's freshman season at Pittsburgh (2025).

Mason Heintschel

63%match

Pittsburgh · 2025

All-ACC

Desmond Trotter

South Alabama · 2020

53%

Nick Minicucci

Delaware · 2025

All-Conference USA

56%

Jaren Hall

BYU · 2021

NFL Rd 5

53%

Shane Buechele

SMU · 2020

48%

Matches Mason on

INT rate

Yards / attempt

Differs from Mason on

Rush yards / carry (higher)

Total pass EPA (college ability) (higher)

TD rate (lower)

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Kalani Sitake

Pass share

43.5%

401 pass / 520 run

Plays / game

65.8

14 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

5.6%

270 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Run-leaning.

Coaching Lineage · 2025

1 coach

2025

Kalani Sitake

BYU

Played his entire career under Kalani Sitake.

HometownMurrieta, CA

Height6'2"

Weight220 lb

Class1

PositionQB

Jersey47

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season	Honor	Scope	Team / Selector	Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season	Team	Role	Latest Model	Forecast	Win	Finalist	Official Finish	Points	Context
This player hasn’t appeared on a Heisman ballot tracked by the model.

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season	Team	Conference	Pos	Class	Bio
2025	BYU	Big 12	QB	1	No. 47 \| 6-2 \| 220 lb \| Murrieta, CA

Bear Bachmeier

R07 · Impact starter

Identity & Role

Recruiting Pedigree

Transfer Arc

Heisman Lens

The Room on Bear Bachmeier

How rival fanbases talk about Bear Bachmeier

Combined WEPA per play (pass + rush)

Why this is a two-channel quarterback case

2025 Season · Final

QB season snapshot

What kind of player is this?

2025 Season · Final

Traditional Stats

Advanced Metrics

Player Standing

Percentile Card

Advanced Savant

The Pocket Surgeon

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Trophy Case · Detail

No formal honors on the ledger yet

Honors Timeline

Heisman By Year

Roster Timeline