June 22, 2026 · Dead Period · Heritage Window · 2026 Outlook

St. Olaf College

4-6 2025 final

St. Olaf is a program defined by one rivalry—the Goat Trophy against Carleton is everything, and the 2025 loss of it still stings.

Oles country waits.

Record

4-6

win% .400

Conference

7th of 10

Minnesota · 3-6

Index Rating

46.4

D3 #148 of 240

Playoff Path

Win the league

Dead PeriodOffseasonPatientPost-loss — diagnostic

The Long Wait·Offseason

St. Olaf is a program defined by one rivalry—the Goat Trophy against Carleton is everything, and the 2025 loss of it still stings.

Title DroughtSince 2025

St. Olaf went 4-6 (3-6 MIAC) in 2025 and lost the Goat Trophy to Carleton 35-28, a defeat that will shadow the entire 2026 season. Ethan Hess (So K), the 2025 All-MIAC selection with a program-record 14-of-17 field goals and a Fre…

low signal

Read the full program story ↓

Offseason

69 days

until kickoff · Sun Aug 30 · 17:00 UTC

Act I

The 2026 Outlook

DIVISION III · THE PATH TO THE STAGG BOWL

St. Olaf College sits 7th in the Minnesota Conference and 148th of 240 in the CFB Zeitgeist — outside the at-large picture — the path runs through the conference title.

Minnesota · 2025

	Team	Conf	Overall	Index
1	Bethel (MN)	9-0	12-1	73.6
2	Saint John's (MN)	8-1	10-2	66.0
3	Concordia Moorhead	6-3	7-3	58.6
4	Carleton	6-3	6-4	55.4
5	Gustavus Adolphus	5-4	5-5	52.3
6	Augsburg	4-5	4-6	49.3
7	St. Olaf	3-6	4-6	46.4
8	St. Scholastica	2-7	3-7	43.5

46.4 CFB Zeitgeist#148 of 240 D352.5 strength of schedule1 quality win

Win the Minnesota Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.

Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2025 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected

THE 2025 SEASON · 4-6

Signature win 32-7 over Northwestern (MN); toughest day 10-64 against Bethel (MN).

—

Oles country waits.

What moved it — offseason · last 30 days

June Dead-period quiet — official-visit + heritage window —

Camp Fall camp ~40 days out

"Go Oles." — St. Olaf College fanbase · recurring line

0 mentions · awaiting signal

Winning record—

The baseline for a successful season.

Conference title—

The primary goal and national bracket path.

32-team bracket qualifierLocked—

One of 32 national tournament entries.

Stagg BowlLocked—

The Division III national championship game.

Floor 2-10

Base 4-8

Ceiling 7-5

floor2-10Rebuild year. Below .500.

base4-8Mid-table finish.

ceiling7-5Conference title race. Bracket qualifier in range.

Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.

Act II

Who We Are

Home-Field Advantage · St. Olaf College · 2018-present

Strong

63% home win rate vs 40% on the road. margin runs +10.1 better at home.

Home12-7Away8-12

Act III

Last Season Reviewed

2025 season · tap to expand

Recent Form · last 10 games

Cooling

Two of five. Schedule has caught up.

Streak L1Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 4-6

Schedule Strength · St. Olaf College · 2025

Balanced

Average opponent win rate 50% across 10 finalized games. Balanced slate across the conference slate.

Opp Win %0.506

Moment of the Year · St. Olaf College · 2025

Won 32-7 vs Northwestern (MN)

Week 2 of 2025. A statement margin. Recruiting boards re-rendered overnight.

Decisive Margin

Postseason History

Recent postseason (2023): 1-0

Most recent: 2023 — win 7-28 (away). Last 5 postseason: 1-0.

2023

From the Archive — St. Olaf College

2024: Won 29-0 at Macalester

In 2024, the program won 29-0 at Macalester — a blowout road result that left the 29-point margin on the books.

Go Oles.