CFB Zeitgeist Score
24
Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by yards / carry at the 68th percentile.
Xavier Gayten
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
157 RUSH YDS · 2 RUSH TD · 29 CARRIES
2026 Outlook
Returning to Mississippi State for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Running back · Mississippi State
Returning around him
- 42% of 2024 offensive production back (Moderate turnover)
- 2 Mississippi State players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -13 net (27 in / 40 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Mississippi State · Last season: 5-8 · Talent rank #24 · 2026 recruiting class #28
RB · MISSISSIPPI STATE · SEC
Xavier Gayten
- 2
- #22
- 6-0 | 205 lb
- Brookhaven, MS
Heisman Heat
#3409
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR05 · Part-time starter
Part-time starter. Splitting first-team reps.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
Mississippi State
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 4-star | 0.8904 | No. 476 recruit | HighSchool | Mississippi State |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★★☆
to Mississippi State
Composite
0.8904
#476 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Xavier Gayten
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Xavier Gayten
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 9g
157Rush yards
29Carries
2Rush TDs
Per game
17.4Rush yards
3Carries
0Rush TDs
Projected (13g)
226.8Rush yards
42Carries
3Rush TDs
To hit 750-yard season (currently 157): needs 148.2/game over remaining 4.
To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 157): needs 210.8/game over remaining 4.
To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 157): needs 335.8/game over remaining 4.
To hit 10 rushing TDs (currently 2): needs 2/game over remaining 4.
To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 2): needs 3.2/game over remaining 4.
To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 2): needs 4.5/game over remaining 4.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Xavier Gayten's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Mississippi State, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Backfield contributor against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
29 47th
YDS
157 50th
YPC
5.4 72nd
TD
2 67th
Receiving
REC
3 33rd
YDS
2 5th
YPR
0.7 3rd
TD
0 70th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 9 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 34-17@ Southern Miss | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Wk 3 | W 63-0vs Alcorn State | 4 | 50 | 12.5 | 1 | 25 | Season-high 50 yds |
| Wk 4 | W 38-10vs Northern Illinois | 4 | 45 | 11.3 | 1 | 22 | |
| Wk 5 | L 34-41vs Tennessee | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Wk 8 | L 21-23@ Florida | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 | 12 | |
| Wk 9 | L 38-45vs Texas | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 | |
| Wk 12 | L 27-49@ Missouri | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 | 9 | |
| Wk 14 | L 19-38vs Ole Miss | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | 6 | |
| Bowl | L 29-43vs Wake Forest | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 | 4 | |
| Total | 29 | 157 | 5.4 | 2 | 25 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2025Mississippi State5-8HC: Jeff Lebby · Run-leaning
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Mississippi State | 29 | 157 | 5.4 | 2 | -- |
| Career | 1 loaded season | 29 | 157 | 5.4 | 2 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Mississippi State | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 1 loaded season | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 157 | #370/735 | 50th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 2 | #247/739 | 67th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 5.4 | #206/735 | 72nd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 3 | #371/552 | 33rd pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 2 | #523/548 | 5th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 5.8% | #498/738 | 33rd pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 29 | #389/739 | 47th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 25 | #335/733 | 54th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 5 | #482/540 | 11th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 0.7 | #534/548 | 3rd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 0 | #169/552 | 70th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 9.1% | #517/738 | 30th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 7.0% | #457/738 | 38th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 7.0% | #471/738 | 36th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 6.8% | #481/738 | 35th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 3.8% | #533/738 | 28th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 2.0% | #597/738 | 19th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 1.8% | #419/738 | 43rd pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 1 | #78/256 | 70th pct | Turnoversvs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 9 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home6g | 19.0 | 6.1 | 0.3 |
| Road3g | 14.3 | 3.9 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins3g | 31.7 | 11.9 | 0.7 |
| Losses6g | 10.3 | 2.9 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-75g | 20.6 | 8.5 | 0.4 |
| Weeks 8+4g | 13.5 | 3.2 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
24Below cohort
Concern: carries (0th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Xavier GaytenMississippi StateJordan BrunsonMiami (OH)· 54% simChavon WrightNorthern Illinois· 51% simTae MeadowsTroy· 51% sim
Yards / carry
Fumbles lost
Rush TDs
Long run
Receptions
Rush yards
Rec yards
Carries
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Jeff Lebby
Pass share
41.8%
390 pass / 543 run
Plays / game
71.8
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
12.7%
308 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2025
1 coach2025
Jeff Lebby
Mississippi State
Played his entire career under Jeff Lebby.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownBrookhaven, MS
Height6'0"
Weight205 lb
Class2
PositionRB
Jersey22
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamMississippi State
ConferenceSEC
Joined2025
Career arc2 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Mississippi State | RB2 | #3409 | #3755 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | SEC |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Mississippi State | SEC | RB | 2 | No. 22 | 6-0 | 205 lb | Brookhaven, MS |
| 2024 | Mississippi State | SEC | RB | 2 | No. 22 | 6-0 | 205 lb | Brookhaven, MS |