cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Tucker Ashcraft /Wisconsin

Tucker Ashcraft

TE · Wisconsin · Jr · #11

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

10 REC YDS · 2 REC · 0 REC TD

2026 RETURNINGReturning to Wisconsin for 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to Wisconsin for 2026

2026 Depth chart

Projected starter

Tight end · Wisconsin

Returning around him

  • 40% of 2024 offensive production back (Moderate turnover)
  • Transfer portal: +8 net (33 in / 25 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

Wisconsin · Last season: 4-8 · Talent rank #28 · 2026 recruiting class #27

TE · WISCONSIN · BIG TEN

Tucker Ashcraft

  • 3
  • #11
  • 6-5 | 260 lb
  • Seattle, WA

CFB Zeitgeist Score

2

Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by rec tds at the 7th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#1880

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP TE AWARD

Mackey

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 1 · 2-deep

R04 · Rotational

Rotational. Earning real snaps in the rotation.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Development Trajectory · receiving yards

2023–2025
86.02023
82.02024
10.02025

-88%

Sharp dropoff (-88%) — career inflection point.

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★
#1475 national
CFB
College
Wisconsin
2023–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionTE
Class3
Jersey11
Measurements6-5 | 260 lb
HometownSeattle, WA
Primary teamWisconsin

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 1475 recruit
Composite rating 0.8478 HighSchool
Signed with Wisconsin 2023
Origin O'Dea Seattle, WA, USA
Class Profile Context
2023 3-star | 0.8478 No. 1475 recruit | HighSchool | Wisconsin

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file
Latest destination -- --
Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD
Season Move Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#1880Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#2485Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to Wisconsin

Composite

0.8478

#1475 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Tucker Ashcraft

Fan sentiment ·

Belief Meter

Awaiting per-cohort signal

Sample 0 mentions
Confidence BELOW-FLOOR

Top Take

Trajectory

Cohort divergence mapbearishbullishheatedcalmNational: 1 mentions · belief +0 · "\[Source\](https://x.com/transferportal/status/2011654171766726994?s=46&t=JyMGiL"National
  • National · n=1

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Tucker Ashcraft

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Scenario Explorer

Available for players with a qualifying signature metric (passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, sacks, etc.). The slider projects how a season finishes if the current pace holds.

What made this player interesting

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Tucker Ashcraft's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Wisconsin, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.

Current place #1880 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load 3.6% Overall usage share
Profile quirk Development arc The card should explain why this profile stands out

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

TE season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Receptions 2 0 rec TD | #349/475 (27th pct)
Receiving yards 10 5.0 per catch | #406/475 (15th pct)
Scrimmage yards 10 Total offensive yardage | #406/475 (15th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Receiving weapon against FBS receiving peers.

Balanced profile

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Receiving

REC
2 27th
YDS
10 15th
YPR
5.0 12th
TD
0 46th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 1 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppRECYDSAVGTDLONGNote
Wk 14L 7-17@ Minnesota2105.006Season-high 10 yds
Total2105.006
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2023Wisconsin7-6HC: Luke Fickell · Balanced
2024Wisconsin5-7HC: Luke Fickell · Run-leaning
2025Wisconsin4-8HC: Luke Fickell · Run-heavy, slow tempo
SeasonTeam
2025Wisconsin2105.00--
2024Wisconsin12826.81--
2023Wisconsin88610.81--
Career3 loaded seasons221788.12--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Pass share

The tight end's share of the passing offense, which helps distinguish a featured receiving tight end from a secondary option.

Role share

A blended usage view that shows how often the offense flows through the tight end compared with other same-level peers.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Usage 3.6% 7.1% pass-game share | #172/468 (63rd pct)
Return yards 0 0 return TD
Touchdowns 0 Across offense and returns | #257/475 (46th pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Receiving Receptions 2 #349/475 27th pct Volumevs FBS TE
Receiving Receiving yards 10 #406/475 15th pct Volumevs FBS TE
Receiving Receiving TD 0 #257/475 46th pct Scoringvs FBS TE
Receiving Yards / catch 5.0 #418/475 12th pct Efficiencyvs FBS TE
Usage Pass share 7.1% #172/468 63rd pct Air-game usagevs FBS TE
Receiving Receiving LONG 6 #426/475 11th pct Metricvs FBS TE
Usage 2nd-down usage 11.1% #8/468 99th pct Middle-down loadvs FBS TE
Usage Passing-down usage 5.9% #106/468 78th pct Known-passing sharevs FBS TE
Usage Role share 3.6% #159/468 66th pct Share of team offensevs FBS TE
Usage Standard-down usage 2.6% #260/468 45th pct Base-situation sharevs FBS TE
Usage 1st-down usage 0.0% #401/468 15th pct Early-down loadvs FBS TE
Usage 3rd-down usage 0.0% #339/468 28th pct Money-down loadvs FBS TE
Usage Rush share 0.0% #58/468 88th pct Ground-game usagevs FBS TE

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

The Mackey award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 1 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Road1g2.010.05.00.0

Win vs Loss

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Losses1g2.010.05.00.0

First half vs Second half

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Weeks 8+1g2.010.05.00.0

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the TE cohort

2Below cohort
5 metrics · season cumulative

Concern: long catch (0th).

Rec TDs#152 / 175 · 7th pct
0rece
Yards / catch#175 / 175 · 1st pct
5.0rece
Rec yards#176 / 175 · 0th pct
10rece
Receptions#176 / 175 · 0th pct
2rece
Long catch#176 / 175 · 0th pct
6rece

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · TE · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 5 metrics
Tucker AshcraftWisconsinBryce CaufieldOregon State· 60% simHayden HansenFlorida· 55% simTyler FortenberryArkansas State· 51% sim
Rec TDs
7
Ashcraft
21
Caufield
43
Hansen
43
Fortenberry
Yards / catch
1
Ashcraft
7
Caufield
16
Hansen
26
Fortenberry
Rec yards
0
Ashcraft
44
Caufield
54
Hansen
58
Fortenberry
Receptions
0
Ashcraft
66
Caufield
69
Hansen
75
Fortenberry
Long catch
0
Ashcraft
39
Caufield
32
Hansen
32
Fortenberry

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

DNA Match awaiting data — similarity scores compute once season stats clear the volume gate for this position cohort.

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Luke Fickell

Pass share

39.7%

272 pass / 413 run

Plays / game

57.1

12 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

10.8%

249 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Run-heavy, slow tempo.

Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025

1 coach
2023
Luke Fickell
Wisconsin
2024
Luke Fickell
Wisconsin
2025
Luke Fickell
Wisconsin

Played his entire career under Luke Fickell.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownSeattle, WA
Height6'5"
Weight260 lb
Class3
PositionTE
Jersey11

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Wisconsin TE3 #1880 #2485 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | Big Ten
2023 Wisconsin TE3 #1922 #2068 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | Big Ten

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Wisconsin Big Ten TE 3 No. 11 | 6-5 | 260 lb | Seattle, WA
2024 Wisconsin Big Ten TE 3 No. 11 | 6-5 | 260 lb | Seattle, WA
2023 Wisconsin Big Ten TE 3 No. 11 | 6-5 | 260 lb | Seattle, WA