CFB Zeitgeist Score
32
Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by yards / catch at the 99th percentile.
Tony Johnson
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
162 REC YDS · 7 REC · 0 REC TD
2026 Outlook
Returning to Miami for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Wide receiver · Miami
Returning around him
- 12% of 2024 offensive production back (Heavy turnover)
- 9 Miami players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -6 net (13 in / 19 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Miami · Last season: 13-3 (AP #10) · Talent rank #15 · 2026 recruiting class #13
WR · MIAMI · ACC
Tony Johnson
- 4
- #17
- 5-10 | 187 lb
- Ocala, FL
Heisman Heat
#319
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP WR AWARD
Biletnikoff
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 1 · 2-deepR03 · Backup
Backup. On the two-deep, pushing for snaps.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · receiving yards
2022–2025-35%
Sharp dropoff (-35%) — career inflection point.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
—
CFB
College
3 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Heisman futures · live sportsbook odds
#29 in market ▼ from #23 · 5 books
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No recruiting profile is on file for this player. | ||
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Tony Johnson
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
100
Grounded Optimism
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=1
- National · n=2
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Tony Johnson
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the receiving totals stand
Through 4g
162Rec yards
7Receptions
0Rec TDs
Per game
40.5Rec yards
2Receptions
0Rec TDs
Projected (13g)
526.5Rec yards
23Receptions
0Rec TDs
To hit 700-yard receiver (currently 162): needs 59.8/game over remaining 9.
To hit 1,000-yard receiver (currently 162): needs 93.1/game over remaining 9.
To hit 60-catch season (currently 7): needs 5.9/game over remaining 9.
To hit 80-catch season (currently 7): needs 8.1/game over remaining 9.
To hit 8 receiving TDs (currently 0): needs 0.9/game over remaining 9.
To hit 10 receiving TDs (currently 0): needs 1.1/game over remaining 9.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Tony Johnson's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Miami, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
WR season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Big-play receiver against FBS receiving peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Receiving
REC
7 40th
YDS
162 53rd
YPR
23.1 96th
TD
0 45th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 4 games
| Wk | Opp | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 2 | W 45-3vs Bethune-Cookman | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 | 20 | |
| Wk 3 | W 49-12vs South Florida | 2 | 64 | 32.0 | 0 | 51 | |
| Wk 9 | W 42-7vs Stanford | 3 | 69 | 23.0 | 0 | 32 | Season-high 69 yds |
| Wk 10 | L 20-26@ SMU | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | 9 | |
| Total | 7 | 162 | 21.0 | 0 | 51 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022Florida Atlantic5-7HC: Willie Taggart · Run-leaning
2023Florida Atlantic4-8HC: Tom Herman · Balanced
2024Cincinnati5-7HC: Scott Satterfield · Balanced
2025Miami13-3HC: Mario Cristobal · Balanced
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Miami | 7 | 162 | 23.1 | 0 | -- |
| 2024 | Cincinnati | 49 | 452 | 9.2 | 6 | -- |
| 2023 | Florida Atlantic | 36 | 406 | 11.3 | 4 | -- |
| 2022 | Florida Atlantic | 22 | 251 | 11.4 | 3 | -- |
| Career | 4 loaded seasons | 114 | 1,271 | 11.1 | 13 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Miami | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2024 | Cincinnati | 2 | 13 | -- | -- | -- |
| 2023 | Florida Atlantic | 1 | 10 | -- | -- | -- |
| 2022 | Florida Atlantic | 1 | 6 | -- | -- | -- |
| Career | 4 loaded seasons | 4 | 29 | -- | -- | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
The player's share of a team's passing-game involvement. It is the fastest way to see whether the receiver is a true focal point or more of a complementary piece.
A blended workload view that accounts for catches, designed touches, and any return-game involvement that shapes the overall profile.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | Receptions | 7 | #667/1110 | 40th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 162 | #521/1107 | 53rd pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 0 | #615/1111 | 45th pct | Scoringvs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 23.1 | #43/1106 | 96th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Pass share | 5.8% | #791/1137 | 31st pct | Air-game usagevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 51 | #260/1105 | 77th pct | Metricvs FBS WR |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 6.3% | #524/1137 | 54th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 3.0% | #683/1137 | 40th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 2.8% | #837/1137 | 26th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Role share | 2.8% | #812/1137 | 29th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS WR |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 2.2% | #961/1137 | 16th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 1.9% | #898/1137 | 21st pct | Early-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Rush share | 0.0% | #391/1137 | 66th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS WR |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 4 games
Home vs Road
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home3g | 2.0 | 51.0 | 25.0 | 0.0 |
| Road1g | 1.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins3g | 2.0 | 51.0 | 25.0 | 0.0 |
| Losses1g | 1.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-72g | 1.5 | 42.0 | 26.0 | 0.0 |
| Weeks 8+2g | 2.0 | 39.0 | 16.0 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort
32Below cohort
Elite: yards / catch (99th). Concern: receptions (0th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · WR · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Tony JohnsonMiamiNik McMillanBuffalo· 39% simHarrison Wallace IIIOle Miss· 37% simJacquon GibsonMassachusetts· 37% sim
Yards / catch
Long catch
Rec yards
Rec TDs
Receptions
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Mario Cristobal
Pass share
47.2%
496 pass / 554 run
Plays / game
65.6
16 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
4.1%
245 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
1 coach2022
Mario Cristobal
Miami
2023
Mario Cristobal
Miami
2024
Mario Cristobal
Miami
2025
Mario Cristobal
Miami
Played his entire career under Mario Cristobal.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownOcala, FL
Height5'10"
Weight187 lb
Class4
PositionWR
Jersey17
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamMiami
ConferenceACC
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Cincinnati | WR4 | #319 | #403 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Big 12 |
| 2023 | Florida Atlantic | WR4 | #1344 | #1849 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | American Athletic |
| 2022 | Florida Atlantic | WR4 | #1717 | #2235 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Conference USA |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Miami | ACC | WR | 4 | No. 17 | 5-10 | 187 lb | Ocala, FL |
| 2024 | Cincinnati | Big 12 | WR | 4 | No. 17 | 5-10 | 187 lb | Ocala, FL |
| 2023 | Florida Atlantic | American Athletic | WR | 4 | No. 17 | 5-10 | 187 lb | Ocala, FL |
| 2022 | Florida Atlantic | Conference USA | WR | 4 | No. 17 | 5-10 | 187 lb | Ocala, FL |