cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Tayden Barnes /Cincinnati

Tayden Barnes

S · Cincinnati · So · #10

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

24 TACKLES · 0 SACKS

2026 TRANSFERTransferred Cincinnati → New Mexico State for 2026

Where He Ended Up · Transfer

Transferred to New Mexico State

2025Cincinnati
2026New Mexico State

S · CINCINNATI · BIG 12

Tayden Barnes

  • 2
  • #10
  • 5-8 | 185 lb
  • Amarillo, TX

CFB Zeitgeist Score

28

Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by tackles for loss at the 28th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#15609

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP DB AWARD

Jim Thorpe

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R05 · Part-time starter

Part-time starter. Splitting first-team reps.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
No recruit profile
CFB
College
Cincinnati
2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionS
Class2
Jersey10
Measurements5-8 | 185 lb
HometownAmarillo, TX
Primary teamCincinnati

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree Not on file No matched recruiting profile in the loaded archive
Composite rating -- Composite rating unavailable for this player
Signed with -- Commitment history unavailable
Origin -- Hometown and high school unavailable
Class Profile Context
No recruiting profile is on file for this player.

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 2 Programs changed on file
Latest destination New Mexico State 2026
Transfer stars 3-star CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility Immediate Jan 21, 2026
Season Move Context
2026 Cincinnati -> New Mexico State 3-star | 0.8400 | Immediate
2025 New Mexico State -> Cincinnati 3-star | 0.8600 | Immediate

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#15609Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#15721Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Tayden Barnes

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Tayden Barnes

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the defensive totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 9g
24Tackles
1Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Per game
3Tackles
0.1Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Projected (13g)
35Tackles
1.4Tackles for loss
0Sacks

To hit 80-tackle season (currently 24): needs 14/game over remaining 4.

To hit 100-tackle season (currently 24): needs 19/game over remaining 4.

To hit 6-sack season (currently 0): needs 1.5/game over remaining 4.

To hit 10-sack season (currently 0): needs 2.5/game over remaining 4.

Why this is a rare defensive case

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Tayden Barnes is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Cincinnati's defense, with 0.0 sacks, 1.0 tackles for loss, and -- interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.

Current place #15609 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load -- Role share still loading
Profile quirk Transfer path 2 portal moves

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

DEF season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Total tackles 24 13 solo | #1737/4942 (65th pct)
TFL 1.0 Backfield disruption | #2051/4972 (59th pct)
Sacks 0.0 Pass-rush finish | #1762/4972 (65th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Defensive contributor against FBS defenders.

Balanced profile

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Tackling & Disruption

TOT
24 65th
SOLO
13 65th
TFL
1.0 59th
SACK
0.0 65th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 9 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppTKLSOLOTFLSACKINTPDNote
Wk 1L 17-20vs Nebraska720.00.00Season-high 7 tackles
Wk 2W 34-20vs Bowling Green221.00.00
Wk 5W 37-34@ Kansas110.00.00
Wk 6W 38-30vs Iowa State320.00.00
Wk 7W 20-11vs UCF320.00.00
Wk 8W 49-17@ Oklahoma State100.00.00
Wk 9W 41-20vs Baylor220.00.00
Wk 10L 14-45@ Utah310.00.00
Wk 14L 23-45@ TCU210.00.00
Total24131.00.00
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2025Cincinnati7-6HC: Scott Satterfield · Balanced, slow tempo
SeasonTeam
2025Cincinnati24131.00.0------
Career1 loaded season24131.00.0------
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Disruption stats

TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.

Coverage splash

Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

INT -- -- pick-six TD
Pass breakups 0 Coverage disruption
QB pressures 0 Quarterback hurries
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Defense Total tackles 24 #1737/4942 65th pct Volumevs FBS DEF
Defense TFL 1.0 #2051/4972 59th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Sacks 0.0 #1762/4972 65th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Solo tackles 13 #1622/4584 65th pct Volumevs FBS DEF

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

The Thorpe award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 9 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Home5g3.40.20.00.0
Road4g1.80.00.00.0

Win vs Loss

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Wins6g2.00.20.00.0
Losses3g4.00.00.00.0

First half vs Second half

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Weeks 1-75g3.20.20.00.0
Weeks 8+4g2.00.00.00.0

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the S cohort

28Below cohort
6 metrics · season cumulative

Concern: passes defended (17th).

Solo tackles#1622 / 2975 · 44th pct
13defe
Tackles#1737 / 2975 · 40th pct
24defe
Tackles for loss#1936 / 2975 · 28th pct
1.0defe
Sacks#1575 / 2975 · 24th pct
0.0defe
QB hurries#1662 / 2975 · 22nd pct
0defe
Passes defended#1916 / 2975 · 18th pct
0defe

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · S · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 6 metrics
Tayden BarnesCincinnatiTyler MartinMassachusetts· 62% simJonJon VaughnsUCLA· 56% simTahj Ra-ElPurdue· 54% sim
Solo tackles
44
Barnes
87
Martin
96
Vaughns
100
Ra-El
Tackles
40
Barnes
98
Martin
99
Vaughns
99
Ra-El
Tackles for loss
28
Barnes
63
Martin
85
Vaughns
56
Ra-El
Sacks
24
Barnes
24
Martin
63
Vaughns
24
Ra-El
QB hurries
22
Barnes
22
Martin
22
Vaughns
22
Ra-El
Passes defended
18
Barnes
67
Martin
48
Vaughns
91
Ra-El

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Hybrid Nickel

Moves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB.

S

His 2025 production profile sits closest to DJ Barksdale’s 2023 season.

DJ Barksdale

71%match

James Madison · 2023

#2

Aamii Branch

Akron · 2025

67%
#3

Kam Canterbury

UL Monroe · 2025

68%
#4

Elijah Palmer

Hawai'i · 2023

68%
#5

Justin White

Michigan State · 2022

68%

Matches DJ on

PD rate
Tackle volume
Weight

Differs from DJ on

Class year (higher)
Height (lower)

Not enough data yet for this comparison.

As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Ben Egenolf's sophomore season at Ball State (2022).

Ben Egenolf

78%match

Ball State · 2022

#2

Carson Willich

Iowa State · 2023

66%
#3

Isaiah Young

California · 2022

68%
#4

James Reed III

Arkansas State · 2023

68%
#5

Rodney Hill

South Florida · 2025

67%

Matches Ben on

Class year
PD rate
Weight

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Scott Satterfield

Pass share

47.8%

363 pass / 396 run

Plays / game

58.4

13 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

2.6%

266 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Balanced, slow tempo.

Coaching Lineage · 2025

1 coach
2025
Scott Satterfield
Cincinnati

Played his entire career under Scott Satterfield.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownAmarillo, TX
Height5'8"
Weight185 lb
Class2
PositionS
Jersey10

Trophy Case · Confirmed honors

What the selectors said

1 entries
🎖

ALL-CONFERENCE

All-Conf mention (2024)

All-Conference USA

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

All-Conference

1 all-conference honor

Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
2024 All-Conference USA all_conference New Mexico State | Conference USA DB

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 New Mexico State S2 #15609 #15721 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | Conference USA
2023 New Mexico State S2 #13576 #13305 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | Conference USA

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Cincinnati Big 12 S 2 No. 10 | 5-8 | 185 lb | Amarillo, TX
2024 New Mexico State Conference USA S 2 No. 10 | 5-8 | 185 lb | Amarillo, TX
2023 New Mexico State Conference USA S 2 No. 10 | 5-8 | 185 lb | Amarillo, TX