CFB Zeitgeist Score
35
Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by receptions at the 58th percentile.
Tay Lanier
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
315 REC YDS · 35 REC · 2 REC TD
2026 Outlook
Returning to Colorado State for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Returning starter
Wide receiver · Colorado State
Returning around him
- 50% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- Transfer portal: -7 net (31 in / 38 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Colorado State · Last season: 2-10 · Talent rank #92 · 2026 recruiting class #106
WR · COLORADO STATE · MOUNTAIN WEST
Tay Lanier
- 4
- #6
- 6-1 | 165 lb
- Long Beach, CA
Heisman Heat
Awaiting
Not on the live Heisman board this week.
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
—
TOP WR AWARD
Biletnikoff
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR06 · Starter
Starter. A locked-in starting role.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
—
CFB
College
Colorado State
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No recruiting profile is on file for this player. | ||
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens
Where the model places this player relative to the rest of the Heisman field.
Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Tay Lanier
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Tay Lanier
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Receiving TDs
2
count
All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions
National rank #302 of 531
Percentile vs All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions 43rd
Why it matters
#302 of 531 All FBS WRs in receiving TDs — 2 TDs on 35 receptions.
Vs cohort
This player 2 (43th)
HIGH · n=35 cohort 531
- Also strong
- Receiving yards (total)#377 / 531
- Yards per reception#467 / 531
Signature Moment
Week 13 at Boise State — 1 receiving_tds
Result L 21-49
The week the volume broke through — stacked 1 td at Boise State.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the receiving totals stand
Through 12g
315Rec yards
35Receptions
2Rec TDs
Per game
26.2Rec yards
3Receptions
0Rec TDs
Projected (13g)
341.2Rec yards
38Receptions
2Rec TDs
To hit 700-yard receiver (currently 315): needs 385/game over remaining 1.
To hit 1,000-yard receiver (currently 315): needs 685/game over remaining 1.
To hit 60-catch season (currently 35): needs 25/game over remaining 1.
To hit 80-catch season (currently 35): needs 45/game over remaining 1.
To hit 8 receiving TDs (currently 2): needs 6/game over remaining 1.
To hit 10 receiving TDs (currently 2): needs 8/game over remaining 1.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Tay Lanier's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Colorado State, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
WR season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Receiving weapon against FBS receiving peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Receiving
REC
35 79th
YDS
315 69th
YPR
9.0 25th
TD
2 75th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 12 games
| Wk | Opp | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 21-38@ Washington | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | 10 | |
| Wk 2 | W 21-17vs Northern Colorado | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Wk 4 | L 16-17vs UTSA | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 | 6 | |
| Wk 5 | L 3-20vs Washington State | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 | 9 | |
| Wk 6 | L 24-45@ San Diego State | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 | 14 | |
| Wk 7 | W 49-21vs Fresno State | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 | |
| Wk 8 | L 19-31vs Hawai'i | 2 | 56 | 28.0 | 0 | 37 | |
| Wk 9 | L 0-28@ Wyoming | 3 | 56 | 18.7 | 0 | 39 | |
| Wk 11 | L 10-42vs UNLV | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 | 6 | |
| Wk 12 | L 17-20@ New Mexico | 5 | 41 | 8.2 | 0 | 15 | |
| Wk 13 | L 21-49@ Boise State | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 1 | 8 | |
| Wk 14 | L 21-42vs Air Force | 9 | 73 | 8.1 | 1 | 20 | Season-high 73 yds |
| Total | 35 | 315 | 10.0 | 2 | 39 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2025Colorado State2-10HC: Jay Norvell · Balanced
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Colorado State | 35 | 315 | 9.0 | 2 | -- |
| Career | 1 loaded season | 35 | 315 | 9.0 | 2 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
The player's share of a team's passing-game involvement. It is the fastest way to see whether the receiver is a true focal point or more of a complementary piece.
A blended workload view that accounts for catches, designed touches, and any return-game involvement that shapes the overall profile.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | Receptions | 35 | #230/1110 | 79th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 315 | #346/1107 | 69th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 2 | #281/1111 | 75th pct | Scoringvs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 9.0 | #833/1106 | 25th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Pass share | 10.4% | #468/1137 | 59th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 39 | #472/1105 | 57th pct | Metricvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 7.2% | #442/1137 | 61st pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 7.0% | #303/1137 | 73rd pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Role share | 5.7% | #398/1137 | 65th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 5.5% | #597/1137 | 48th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 4.9% | #401/1137 | 65th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 4.7% | #461/1137 | 60th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Rush share | 0.0% | #391/1137 | 66th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS WR |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 1 | #131/302 | 57th pct | Turnoversvs FBS WR |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 12 games
Home vs Road
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 2.9 | 24.0 | 9.0 | 0.1 |
| Road5g | 3.0 | 29.4 | 11.2 | 0.2 |
Win vs Loss
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins2g | 0.5 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 |
| Losses10g | 3.4 | 31.1 | 10.6 | 0.2 |
First half vs Second half
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 1.3 | 9.5 | 7.9 | 0.0 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 4.5 | 43.0 | 11.7 | 0.3 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort
35Mid-pack
Concern: yards / catch (8th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · WR · 2025
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Tay LanierColorado StateMichael Jackson IIIPurdue· 76% simAsaad WaseemFlorida Atlantic· 71% simAaron TurnerRice· 70% sim
Receptions
Rec TDs
Rec yards
Fumbles lost
Long catch
Yards / catch
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Possession Receiver
Reliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive.
WR
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Leyton Smithson’s 2022 season.
Leyton Smithson
74%match
#2
Lyndon Ravare
77%
#3
Matthew Coleman
73%
#4
Charles Ross
72%
#5
Troy Stellato
71%
Matches Leyton on
Height
Reception volume
TD rate
Differs from Leyton on
Weight (lower)
Class year (higher)
Through 1 college season, his career arc tracks closest to Cutrell Haywood’s path through Gardner-Webb.
Cutrell Haywood
100%match
#2
Ryan Miller
98%
#3
C.J. Hutton
98%
#4
Cyrus Wallace
98%
#5
Bo Belquist
97%
Matches Cutrell on
Yards per reception
As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Lyndon Ravare's sophomore season at Kennesaw State (2025).
Lyndon Ravare
78%match
#2
Troy Stellato
77%
#3
Skyler Bell
Consensus All-AmericanNFL Rd 4
77%
#4
Jose Barbon
75%
#5
Charles Ross
75%
Matches Lyndon on
Yards / reception
Total EPA (college ability)
Height
Differs from Lyndon on
Class year (higher)
Reception volume (higher)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Jay Norvell
Pass share
52.1%
393 pass / 362 run
Plays / game
62.9
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
11.1%
315 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2025
1 coach2025
Jay Norvell
Colorado State
Played his entire career under Jay Norvell.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownLong Beach, CA
Height6'1"
Weight165 lb
Class4
PositionWR
Jersey6
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamColorado State
ConferenceMountain West
Joined2025
Career arc1 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This player hasn’t appeared on a Heisman ballot tracked by the model. | |||||||||
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Colorado State | Mountain West | WR | 4 | No. 6 | 6-1 | 165 lb | Long Beach, CA |