cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Tao Johnson /Utah

Tao Johnson

S · Utah · Jr · #5

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

50 TACKLES · 0 SACKS

2026 TRANSFERTransferred Utah → UCLA for 2026

Where He Ended Up · Transfer

Transferred to UCLA

2025Utah
2026UCLA

S · UTAH · BIG 12

Tao Johnson

  • 3
  • #5
  • 6-1 | 193 lb
  • Idaho Falls, ID

CFB Zeitgeist Score

57

Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by interceptions at the 75th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#7921

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP DB AWARD

Jim Thorpe

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R07 · Impact starter

Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★★
#239 national
CFB
College
Utah
2023–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Heisman futures · live sportsbook odds

#29 in market ▼ from #23 · 5 books

+35002.8% implied▲ tightened from +6600

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionS
Class3
Jersey5
Measurements6-1 | 193 lb
HometownIdaho Falls, ID
Primary teamUtah

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 4-star No. 239 recruit
Composite rating 0.9124 HighSchool
Signed with Utah 2022
Origin Clovis Clovis, CA, USA
Class Profile Context
2022 4-star | 0.9124 No. 239 recruit | HighSchool | Utah
2022 3-star | 0.8689 No. 789 recruit | HighSchool

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 1 Programs changed on file
Latest destination UCLA 2026
Transfer stars 3-star CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility Immediate Jan 10, 2026
Season Move Context
2026 Utah -> UCLA 3-star | 0.8700 | Immediate

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#7921Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#7986Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to —

Composite

0.8689

#789 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Tao Johnson

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Tao Johnson

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the defensive totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 12g
50Tackles
2.5Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Per game
4Tackles
0.2Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Projected (13g)
54Tackles
2.7Tackles for loss
0Sacks

To hit 80-tackle season (currently 50): needs 30/game over remaining 1.

To hit 100-tackle season (currently 50): needs 50/game over remaining 1.

To hit 6-sack season (currently 0): needs 6/game over remaining 1.

To hit 10-sack season (currently 0): needs 10/game over remaining 1.

Why this is a rare defensive case

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Tao Johnson is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Utah's defense, with 0.0 sacks, 2.5 tackles for loss, and 2 interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.

Current place #7921 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load -- Role share still loading
Profile quirk Blue-chip pedigree No. 239 recruit

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

DEF season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Total tackles 50 27 solo | #600/4942 (88th pct)
TFL 2.5 Backfield disruption | #1236/4972 (75th pct)
Sacks 0.0 Pass-rush finish | #1762/4972 (65th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Coverage splash | High-volume tackler against FBS defenders.

Coverage splashHigh-volume tackler

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Tackling & Disruption

TOT
50 88th
SOLO
27 86th
TFL
2.5 75th
SACK
0.0 65th

Coverage & Takeaways

PD
4 84th
INT
2 87th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 12 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppTKLSOLOTFLSACKINTPDNote
Wk 1W 43-10@ UCLA430.00.00
Wk 2W 63-9vs Cal Poly321.00.00
Wk 4L 10-34vs Texas Tech621.00.010
Wk 5W 48-14@ West Virginia420.00.00
Wk 7W 42-10vs Arizona State440.00.00
Wk 8L 21-24@ BYU520.00.00
Wk 9W 53-7vs Colorado000.00.011
Wk 10W 45-14vs Cincinnati440.00.01
Wk 12W 55-28@ Baylor320.00.01
Wk 13W 51-47vs Kansas State530.00.00
Wk 14W 31-21@ Kansas930.50.01Season-high 9 tackles
BowlW 44-22vs Nebraska300.00.00
Total50272.50.024
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2023Utah8-5HC: Kyle Whittingham · Run-heavy
2024Utah5-7HC: Kyle Whittingham · Balanced
2025Utah11-2HC: Kyle Whittingham · Run-heavy
SeasonTeam
2025Utah50272.50.042--
2024Utah70412.00.041--
2023Utah33161.50.05----
Career3 loaded seasons153846.00.0133--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Disruption stats

TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.

Coverage splash

Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

INT 2 0 pick-six TD | #114/869 (87th pct)
Pass breakups 4 Coverage disruption | #340/2184 (84th pct)
QB pressures 0 Quarterback hurries
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Defense Total tackles 50 #600/4942 88th pct Volumevs FBS DEF
Defense TFL 2.5 #1236/4972 75th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Sacks 0.0 #1762/4972 65th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Interceptions 2 #114/869 87th pct Takeawaysvs FBS DEF
Defense Pass breakups 4 #340/2184 84th pct Coveragevs FBS DEF
Defense Solo tackles 27 #649/4584 86th pct Volumevs FBS DEF
Defense INT return yards 3 #511/578 12th pct Takeawaysvs FBS DEF
Defense INT return avg 1.5 #533/578 8th pct Takeawaysvs FBS DEF

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

The Thorpe award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 12 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Home7g3.60.30.00.3
Road5g5.00.10.00.4

Win vs Loss

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Wins10g3.90.10.00.4
Losses2g5.50.50.00.0

First half vs Second half

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Weeks 1-76g4.00.30.00.0
Weeks 8+6g4.30.10.00.7

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the S cohort

57Solid starter
7 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: passes defended (85th). Concern: qb hurries (22nd).

Passes defended#340 / 2975 · 86th pct
4defe
Tackles#600 / 2975 · 79th pct
50defe
Solo tackles#649 / 2975 · 77th pct
27defe
Interceptions#114 / 817 · 75th pct
2inte
Tackles for loss#1222 / 2975 · 56th pct
2.5defe
Sacks#1575 / 2975 · 24th pct
0.0defe
QB hurries#1662 / 2975 · 22nd pct
0defe

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · S · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 7 metrics
Tao JohnsonUtahTahj Ra-ElPurdue· 88% simDevin LafayetteTroy· 82% simTyler MartinMassachusetts· 80% sim
Passes defended
86
Johnson
91
Ra-El
91
Lafayette
67
Martin
Tackles
79
Johnson
99
Ra-El
99
Lafayette
98
Martin
Solo tackles
77
Johnson
100
Ra-El
98
Lafayette
87
Martin
Interceptions
75
Johnson
75
Lafayette
31
Martin
Tackles for loss
56
Johnson
56
Ra-El
56
Lafayette
63
Martin
Sacks
24
Johnson
24
Ra-El
63
Lafayette
24
Martin
QB hurries
22
Johnson
22
Ra-El
22
Lafayette
22
Martin

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Hybrid Nickel

Moves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB.

S

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Akeem Dent’s 2022 season.

Akeem Dent

88%match

Florida State · 2022

#2

Anthony Cook

Texas · 2021

88%
#3

Key Lawrence

Oklahoma · 2021

87%
#4

Myles Slusher

Arkansas · 2021

87%
#5

Jayden Goodwin

Air Force · 2022

87%

Matches Akeem on

Tackle volume
Height
PD rate

Not enough data yet for this comparison.

As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Kalen Carroll's junior season at Central Michigan (2025).

Kalen Carroll

95%match

Central Michigan · 2025

#2

Saveon Brown

Buffalo · 2025

89%
#3

Tayon Holloway

Louisville · 2025

85%
#4

Mychal Yharbrough

Miami (OH) · 2025

83%
#5

Jamison Patton

Iowa State · 2025

83%

Matches Kalen on

Class year
Height
PD rate

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Kyle Whittingham

Pass share

39.8%

371 pass / 562 run

Plays / game

71.8

13 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

4.2%

289 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Run-heavy.

Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025

1 coach
2023
Kyle Whittingham
Utah
2024
Kyle Whittingham
Utah
2025
Kyle Whittingham
Utah

Played his entire career under Kyle Whittingham.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownIdaho Falls, ID
Height6'1"
Weight193 lb
Class3
PositionS
Jersey5

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Utah S3 #7921 #7986 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | Big 12
2023 Utah S3 #9335 #9271 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | Pac-12
2022 Utah S3 #7160 #6951 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | Pac-12

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Utah Big 12 S 3 No. 5 | 6-1 | 193 lb | Idaho Falls, ID
2024 Utah Big 12 S 3 No. 5 | 6-1 | 193 lb | Idaho Falls, ID
2023 Utah Pac-12 S 3 No. 5 | 6-1 | 193 lb | Idaho Falls, ID
2022 Utah Pac-12 S 3 No. 5 | 6-1 | 193 lb | Idaho Falls, ID