cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Shane Payton Hodges /Jacksonville State

Shane Payton Hodges

DE · Jacksonville State · Fr · #4

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

10 TACKLES · 0.5 SACKS

2026 RETURNINGReturning to Jacksonville State for 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to Jacksonville State for 2026

2026 Depth chart

Projected starter

Defensive end · Jacksonville State

Returning around him

  • 84% of 2024 offensive production back (Strong continuity)
  • Transfer portal: +7 net (20 in / 13 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

Jacksonville State · Last season: 9-5 · Talent rank #111 · 2026 recruiting class #110

DE · JACKSONVILLE STATE · CONFERENCE USA

Shane Payton Hodges

  • 1
  • #4
  • 6-3 | 225 lb
  • New Orleans, LA

CFB Zeitgeist Score

22

Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by sacks at the 51st percentile.

Heisman Heat

#13748

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP DEFENSE AWARD

Nagurski

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R06 · Starter

Starter. A locked-in starting role.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
No recruit profile
CFB
College
Jacksonville State
2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionDE
Class1
Jersey4
Measurements6-3 | 225 lb
HometownNew Orleans, LA
Primary teamJacksonville State

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree Not on file No matched recruiting profile in the loaded archive
Composite rating -- Composite rating unavailable for this player
Signed with -- Commitment history unavailable
Origin -- Hometown and high school unavailable
Class Profile Context
No recruiting profile is on file for this player.

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file
Latest destination -- --
Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD
Season Move Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#13748Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#13722Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Shane Payton Hodges

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Shane Payton Hodges

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the defensive totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 5g
10Tackles
0.5Tackles for loss
0.5Sacks
Per game
2Tackles
0.1Tackles for loss
0.1Sacks
Projected (13g)
26Tackles
1.3Tackles for loss
1.3Sacks

To hit 80-tackle season (currently 10): needs 8.8/game over remaining 8.

To hit 100-tackle season (currently 10): needs 11.2/game over remaining 8.

To hit 6-sack season (currently 0.5): needs 0.7/game over remaining 8.

To hit 10-sack season (currently 0.5): needs 1.2/game over remaining 8.

Why this is a rare defensive case

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Shane Payton Hodges is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Jacksonville State's defense, with 0.5 sacks, 0.5 tackles for loss, and -- interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.

Current place #13748 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load -- Role share still loading
Profile quirk Defensive rarity 1 return yds

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

DEF season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Total tackles 10 4 solo | #2859/4942 (42nd pct)
TFL 0.5 Backfield disruption | #2658/4972 (47th pct)
Sacks 0.5 Pass-rush finish | #1501/4972 (70th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Defensive contributor against FBS defenders.

Balanced profile

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Tackling & Disruption

TOT
10 42nd
SOLO
4 34th
TFL
0.5 47th
SACK
0.5 70th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 5 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppTKLSOLOTFLSACKINTPDNote
Wk 1L 10-17@ UCF420.00.00Season-high 4 tackles
Wk 4W 45-10vs Murray State
Wk 8W 38-25vs Delaware220.00.00
Wk 13L 21-27@ Florida International100.00.00
BowlW 17-13vs Troy300.50.50
Total1040.50.50
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2025Jacksonville State9-5HC: Charles Kelly · Run-heavy
SeasonTeam
2025Jacksonville State1040.50.5------
Career1 loaded season1040.50.5------
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Disruption stats

TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.

Coverage splash

Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

INT -- -- pick-six TD
Pass breakups 0 Coverage disruption
QB pressures 0 Quarterback hurries
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Defense Total tackles 10 #2859/4942 42nd pct Volumevs FBS DEF
Defense TFL 0.5 #2658/4972 47th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Sacks 0.5 #1501/4972 70th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Solo tackles 4 #3005/4584 34th pct Volumevs FBS DEF

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

The Lombardi award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 5 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Home3g1.70.20.20.0
Road2g2.50.00.00.0

Win vs Loss

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Wins3g1.70.20.20.0
Losses2g2.50.00.00.0

First half vs Second half

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Weeks 1-73g2.30.20.20.0
Weeks 8+2g1.50.00.00.0

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the DE cohort

22Below cohort
6 metrics · season cumulative

Concern: tackles (1st).

Sacks#1367 / 2975 · 51st pct
0.5defe
QB hurries#1662 / 2975 · 22nd pct
0defe
Tackles for loss#2332 / 2975 · 18th pct
0.5defe
Passes defended#1916 / 2975 · 18th pct
0defe
Solo tackles#2803 / 2975 · 4th pct
4defe
Tackles#2859 / 2975 · 2nd pct
10defe

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · DE · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 6 metrics
Shane Payton HodgesJacksonville StateTyler MartinMassachusetts· 41% simJonJon VaughnsUCLA· 38% simMichael MontgomerySouthern Miss· 37% sim
Sacks
51
Hodges
24
Martin
63
Vaughns
89
Montgomery
QB hurries
22
Hodges
22
Martin
22
Vaughns
22
Montgomery
Tackles for loss
18
Hodges
63
Martin
85
Vaughns
85
Montgomery
Passes defended
18
Hodges
67
Martin
48
Vaughns
67
Montgomery
Solo tackles
4
Hodges
87
Martin
96
Vaughns
82
Montgomery
Tackles
2
Hodges
98
Martin
99
Vaughns
99
Montgomery

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Versatile End

Holds up against run and pass without a single dominant trait.

EDGE

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Kris Caine’s 2022 season.

Kris Caine

82%match

Old Dominion · 2022

#2

Ezra Odinjor

UAB · 2024

78%
#3

Kobe Smith

Duke · 2025

68%
#4

Jonah Elliss

Utah · 2021

NFL Rd 3 · Pk 12
68%
#5

Isaiah Nixon

UCF · 2024

68%

Matches Kris on

Sack rate
TFL rate
Class year

Not enough data yet for this comparison.

As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Brad Johnson's sophomore season at South Carolina (2021).

Brad Johnson

81%match

South Carolina · 2021

#2

Cam Pruitt

Miami · 2025

81%
#3

Jaleel McRae

Florida Atlantic · 2022

80%
#4

Derion Gullette

Mississippi State · 2025

80%
#5

Carmycah Glass

Houston · 2025

79%

Matches Brad on

TFL rate
Sack rate
Weight

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Charles Kelly

Pass share

33.8%

328 pass / 642 run

Plays / game

69.3

14 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

7.8%

243 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Run-heavy.

Coaching Lineage · 2025

1 coach
2025
Charles Kelly
Jacksonville State

Played his entire career under Charles Kelly.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownNew Orleans, LA
Height6'3"
Weight225 lb
Class1
PositionDE
Jersey4

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Jacksonville State DE1 #13748 #13722 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | Conference USA
2023 Jacksonville State DE1 #12319 #12047 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | Conference USA

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Jacksonville State Conference USA DE 1 No. 4 | 6-3 | 225 lb | New Orleans, LA
2024 Jacksonville State Conference USA DE 1 No. 4 | 6-3 | 225 lb | New Orleans, LA
2023 Jacksonville State Conference USA DE 1 No. 4 | 6-3 | 225 lb | New Orleans, LA