CFB Zeitgeist Score
60
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by rush tds at the 94th percentile.
Seth McGowan
Filling the Shoesas of 2026-06-22
Seth McGowan arrives at Kentucky with a new fit to prove and an old chapter behind him.
725RUSH YDS12RUSH TD165CARRIES
PRODUCES ABOVE PERCEPTION · PCTL GAP
+29
perception vs production percentile · 2025
Read the story so far
AI narrative · updated 2026-06-22 · compiled from CFB Zeitgeist data
Where He Ended Up · NFL
Indianapolis2026 NFL rookie season
#237Rd 7 · Pick 21
Indianapolis2026 NFL rookie season
RB · KENTUCKY · SEC
Seth McGowan
- 4
- #3
- 6-1 | 215 lb
- Mesquite, TX
Heisman Heat
#4156
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
Kentucky
NFL
NFL Draft
R7 · #237
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 4-star | 0.9378 | No. 134 recruit | HighSchool | Oklahoma |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | New Mexico State -> Kentucky | 3-star | 0.8700 | Immediate |
| 2021 | Oklahoma -> -- | 4-star | TBD |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in rushing yards (725).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★★☆
to Oklahoma
Composite
0.9378
#134 national
NFL Draft
2026 · Rd 7, Pick 21
#237 overall · Indianapolis
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Seth McGowan
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
—
Awaiting per-cohort signal
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- National · n=2
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Seth McGowan
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Rushing WEPA per carry
+0.200
EPA
P4 + Notre Dame RBs, min 80 carries
National rank #14 of 66
Percentile vs P4 + Notre Dame RBs, min 80 carries 80th
Why it matters
#14 of 66 P4 + Notre Dame RBs by rushing weighted- EPA per carry — +0.200 EPA/carry on 154 carries.
Vs cohort
This player +0.200 (80th)
HIGH · n=154 cohort 66
- Also strong
- Rushing yards (total)#31 / 69
- Yards per carry#56 / 69
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 11g
725Rush yards
165Carries
12Rush TDs
Per game
65.9Rush yards
15Carries
1Rush TDs
Projected (13g)
856.8Rush yards
195Carries
14Rush TDs
To hit 750-yard season (currently 725): needs 12.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 725): needs 137.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 725): needs 387.5/game over remaining 2.
✓ Hit 10 rushing TDs · finished with 12.
To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 12): needs 1.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 12): needs 4/game over remaining 2.
Why the honors trail matters
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
The useful clue on this card is not just the Heisman rank, but the broader honors spine. Seth McGowan already has 1 loaded recognition item, which helps distinguish a player who is merely productive from one who is already earning selector-level validation.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Workhorse | Passing-game back against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
165 93rd
YDS
725 89th
YPC
4.4 44th
TD
12 98th
Receiving
REC
19 86th
YDS
126 78th
YPR
6.6 46th
TD
0 70th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 11 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 24-16vs Toledo | 18 | 78 | 4.3 | 1 | 7 | |
| Wk 2 | L 23-30vs Ole Miss | 15 | 93 | 6.2 | 2 | 18 | |
| Wk 3 | W 48-23vs Eastern Michigan | 18 | 104 | 5.8 | 3 | 17 | 3 rushing TDs |
| Wk 5 | L 13-35@ South Carolina | 17 | 112 | 6.6 | 1 | 20 | Season-high 112 yds |
| Wk 6 | L 14-35@ Georgia | 11 | 44 | 4.0 | 0 | 7 | |
| Wk 8 | L 13-16vs Texas | 14 | 45 | 3.2 | 0 | 7 | |
| Wk 10 | W 10-3@ Auburn | 21 | 53 | 2.5 | 0 | 18 | |
| Wk 11 | W 38-7vs Florida | 22 | 92 | 4.2 | 2 | 11 | |
| Wk 12 | W 42-10vs Tennessee Tech | 17 | 72 | 4.2 | 3 | 12 | 3 rushing TDs |
| Wk 13 | L 17-45@ Vanderbilt | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 0 | 9 | |
| Wk 14 | L 0-41@ Louisville | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | 3 | |
| Total | 165 | 725 | 4.2 | 12 | 20 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2025Kentucky5-7HC: Mark Stoops · Run-leaning
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Kentucky | 165 | 725 | 4.4 | 12 | -- |
| Career | 1 loaded season | 165 | 725 | 4.4 | 12 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Kentucky | 19 | 126 | 6.6 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 1 loaded season | 19 | 126 | 6.6 | 0 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 725 | #84/735 | 89th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 12 | #19/739 | 98th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 4.4 | #409/735 | 44th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 19 | #78/552 | 86th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 126 | #121/548 | 78th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.20 | #58/362 | 84th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 154 weighted playsvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 25.5% | #43/738 | 94th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 165 | #53/739 | 93rd pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 20 | #400/733 | 46th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 17 | #264/540 | 51st pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 6.6 | #295/548 | 46th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 0 | #169/552 | 70th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 43.3% | #44/738 | 94th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 31.6% | #28/738 | 96th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 31.0% | #29/738 | 96th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 28.0% | #25/738 | 97th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 13.3% | #103/738 | 86th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 11.0% | #170/738 | 77th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 7.8% | #61/738 | 92nd pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 1 | #78/256 | 70th pct | Turnoversvs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 11 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home6g | 80.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 |
| Road5g | 48.2 | 3.7 | 0.2 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins5g | 79.8 | 4.2 | 1.8 |
| Losses6g | 54.3 | 4.2 | 0.5 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-75g | 86.2 | 5.4 | 1.4 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 49.0 | 3.2 | 0.8 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
60Solid starter
Elite: rush tds (93rd). Strength: carries (84th). Concern: long run (11th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_rushing0.2High (p75–p90) (n=178)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Seth McGowanKentuckyKendrick RaphaelCalifornia· 81% simAl-Jay HendersonBuffalo· 80% simJadan BaughFlorida· 80% sim
Rush TDs
Carries
Rush yards
Receptions
Rec yards
Fumbles lost
Yards / carry
Long run
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Balanced Back
Plays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension.
RB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Jordan Waters’s 2022 season.
Jordan Waters
76%match
#2
Alton McCaskill
All-AAC
74%
#3
Kye Robichaux
72%
#4
Samson Evans
72%
#5
TJ Harden
70%
Matches Jordan on
Receiving share
Total rush EPA (college ability)
EPA / carry (adj)
Differs from Jordan on
Class year (higher)
Height (higher)
Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Joshua Samuel’s path through Austin Peay.
Joshua Samuel
100%match
#2
Demetric Felton
NFL Rd 6
94%
#3
Cameron Seldon
93%
#4
Dylan Carson
92%
#5
Jalen Berger
92%
Matches Joshua on
Yards per carry
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Jordan Waters's junior season at Duke (2022).
Jordan Waters
88%match
#2
Elijah Green
75%
#3
DeCarlos Brooks
74%
#4
Jabari Small
All-SEC
75%
#5
Marcus Major
74%
Matches Jordan on
EPA / carry (adj)
Yards / carry
Receiving share
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Mark Stoops
Pass share
46.2%
366 pass / 427 run
Plays / game
66.1
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
10.0%
280 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2025
1 coach2025
Mark Stoops
Kentucky
Played his entire career under Mark Stoops.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownMesquite, TX
Height6'1"
Weight215 lb
Class4
PositionRB
Jersey3
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamKentucky
ConferenceSEC
Joined2025
Career arc2 season(s)
Trophy Case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
🎖
ALL-CONFERENCE
All-Conf mention (2024)
All-Conference USA
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
1 all-conference honor
Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | All-Conference USA | all_conference | New Mexico State | Conference USA | RB |
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | New Mexico State | RB4 | #4156 | #4558 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Conference USA |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Kentucky | SEC | RB | 4 | No. 3 | 6-1 | 215 lb | Mesquite, TX |
| 2024 | New Mexico State | Conference USA | RB | 4 | No. 3 | 6-1 | 215 lb | Mesquite, TX |