cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Sam Hartman /Notre Dame

Sam Hartman

QB · Notre Dame · Sr · #10

Limited signal — not enough coverage for a story yet.

ALUMNUSNotre Dame 2023 alumnus

QB · NOTRE DAME · FBS INDEPENDENTS

Sam Hartman

  • 4
  • #10
  • 6-1 | 210 lb
  • Charlotte, NC

CFB Zeitgeist QB Score

Awaiting

Heisman Heat

#14

2.3% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

2.3%

TOP QB AWARD

Davey O'Brien

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 4 · Elite

R12 · All-American

All-American. Named to an NCAA-recognized All-America team.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career arc · Season-by-season Standing

3 seasons on the ladder

Peak: R09 All-Conference HM / 2nd team · 2021

2021

Wake Forest · QB

R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team

Recognized

2022

Wake Forest · QB

R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team

Recognized

2023

Notre Dame · QB

R08 · Watch-list name

Recognized

Development Trajectory · passing yards

2021–2023
4,2282021
3,7012022
2,6892023

-36%

Sharp dropoff (-36%) — career inflection point.

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★
#767 national
CFB
College
2 teams
2021–2023
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionQB
Class4
Jersey10
Measurements6-1 | 210 lb
HometownCharlotte, NC
Primary teamNotre Dame

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 767 recruit
Composite rating 0.8626 HighSchool
Signed with Wake Forest 2018
Origin Oceanside Collegiate Academy Mount Pleasant, SC, USA
Class Profile Context
2018 3-star | 0.8626 No. 767 recruit | HighSchool | Wake Forest

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file
Latest destination -- --
Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD
Season Move Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens · 2023 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 19
Current nowcast#14Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#13Where the full season sim points
Win probability2.3%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability71.8%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to Wake Forest

Composite

0.8626

#767 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Sam Hartman

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Sam Hartman

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Scenario Explorer

Available for players with a qualifying signature metric (passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, sacks, etc.). The slider projects how a season finishes if the current pace holds.

Why the transfer arc matters

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Sam Hartman's card is compelling because the national relevance arrived fast after a change in surroundings. The transfer path matters: when a player changes programs and still rises into the #14 tier, it usually means the role, production, and team fit all clicked immediately.

Current place #14 2.3% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load 57.8% Overall usage share
Profile quirk Transfer path 0 portal moves

2023 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

QB season snapshot

2023 season snapshot | final

2023 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Pass yards 2,689 24 TD | 8 INT | #54/382 (86th pct)
Completion rate 63.5% 191/301 completions | #152/383 (61st pct)
Yards/attempt 8.9 Explosiveness through the air | #53/382 (86th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

High-volume passer | Vertical threat against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.

High-volume passerVertical threat

2023 Season · Final

2023 season snapshot | final

Passing Efficiency

CMP
191 80th
ATT
301 80th
CMP%
63.5% 61st
Y/A
8.9 86th

Passing Production

YDS
2,689 86th
TD
24 94th
INT
8 17th

Rushing

CAR
45 67th
YDS
123 71st
YPC
2.7 48th
TD
3 77th

Game Log

Week-by-week box

No per-game rows for this season yet — the table fills in as box scores arrive.

Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2021Wake Forest10-3HC: Dave Clawson · Balanced, fast tempo
2022Wake Forest8-5HC: Dave Clawson · Balanced
2023Notre Dame10-3HC: Marcus Freeman · Run-leaning, slow tempo
SeasonTeam
2023Notre Dame19130163.5%2,6898.9248159.5----
2022Wake Forest27042962.9%3,7018.63812159.0----
2021Wake Forest29950858.9%4,2288.33914148.6----
Career3 loaded seasons7601,23861.4%10,6188.610134154.9----
SeasonTeam
2023Notre Dame451232.73--
2022Wake Forest1011301.31--
2021Wake Forest1173633.111--
Career3 loaded seasons2636162.315--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Passing WEPA

Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.

Role share

How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Rush impact 123 3 rush TD | #121/408 (71st pct)
Usage 57.8% 98.2% pass share | 15.8% rush share | #23/428 (95th pct)
Passing WEPA +0.56 Opponent-adjusted passing value | #4/200 (98th pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Passing Passing yards 2,689 #54/382 86th pct Volumevs FBS QB
Passing Pass TD 24 #24/407 94th pct Scoringvs FBS QB
Passing Completions 191 #79/383 80th pct Volumevs FBS QB
Passing Completion % 63.5% #152/383 61st pct Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Passing Yards / attempt 8.9 #53/382 86th pct Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Rushing Rushing yards 123 #121/408 71st pct Volumevs FBS QB
Value Passing WEPA +0.56 #4/200 98th pct Opponent-adjusted passing value | 555 weighted playsvs FBS QB
Usage Role share 57.8% #23/428 95th pct Share of team offensevs FBS QB
Passing Attempts 301 #83/407 80th pct Volumevs FBS QB
Passing Interceptions 8 #339/407 17th pct Turnoversvs FBS QB
Rushing Carries 45 #136/408 67th pct Volumevs FBS QB
Rushing Rushing LONG 38 #76/391 81st pct Metricvs FBS QB
Rushing Rush TD 3 #94/408 77th pct Scoringvs FBS QB
Rushing Yards / carry 2.7 #213/407 48th pct Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Usage Pass share 98.2% #4/428 99th pct Air-game usagevs FBS QB
Usage Passing-down usage 74.7% #16/428 96th pct Known-passing sharevs FBS QB
Usage 3rd-down usage 71.3% #34/428 92nd pct Money-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage 2nd-down usage 56.9% #32/428 93rd pct Middle-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage 1st-down usage 52.3% #21/428 95th pct Early-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage Standard-down usage 50.7% #29/428 93rd pct Base-situation sharevs FBS QB
Usage Rush share 15.8% #95/428 78th pct Ground-game usagevs FBS QB
Value Rushing WEPA +0.53 #1/140 100th pct Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 92 weighted playsvs FBS QB
Ball Security Fumbles lost 4 #237/258 9th pct Turnoversvs FBS QB

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits

Per-game splits

Splits fill in once box scores from at least three games land for this season.

Box-score Savant card waits for a season-stat snapshot above the cohort floor. Returns once enough box-score volume lands.

Advanced Savant · QB · 2023

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator returns once this player clears the Savant metric floor (4+ scored bars).
DNA Match awaiting data — similarity scores compute once season stats clear the volume gate for this position cohort.

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Marcus Freeman

Pass share

44.0%

321 pass / 409 run

Plays / game

60.8

12 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

4.7%

257 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Run-leaning, slow tempo.

Coaching Lineage · 2021–2023

2 coaches
2021
Brian Kelly
Notre Dame
2022
Marcus Freeman
Notre Dame
era →
2023
Marcus Freeman
Notre Dame

Coaching transition mid-career: Brian Kelly → Marcus Freeman. Worth noting in scheme + development context.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownCharlotte, NC
Height6'1"
Weight210 lb
Class4
PositionQB
Jersey10

Trophy Case · Confirmed honors

What the selectors said

2 entries
🎖

ALL-CONFERENCE

All-Conf mention (2022)

All-ACC

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

All-Conference

2 all-conference honors

Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
2022 All-ACC all_conference Wake Forest | ACC QB
2021 All-ACC all_conference Wake Forest | ACC QB

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2023 Notre Dame QB4 #14 #13 2.3% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | FBS Independents
2022 Wake Forest QB4 #45 #79 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | ACC
2021 Wake Forest QB4 #10 #10 2.8% 15.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | ACC

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2023 Notre Dame FBS Independents QB 4 No. 10 | 6-1 | 210 lb | Charlotte, NC
2022 Wake Forest ACC QB 4 No. 10 | 6-1 | 210 lb | Charlotte, NC
2021 Wake Forest ACC QB 4 No. 10 | 6-1 | 210 lb | Charlotte, NC