cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Ryan Henderson /San Diego State

Ryan Henderson

EDGE · San Diego State · Jr · #10

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

21 TACKLES · 7 SACKS

2026 TRANSFERTransferred San Diego State → Texas A&M for 2026

Where He Ended Up · Transfer

Transferred to Texas A&M

2025San Diego State
2026Texas A&M

EDGE · SAN DIEGO STATE · MOUNTAIN WEST

Ryan Henderson

  • 3
  • #10
  • 6-3 | 255 lb
  • Las Vegas, NV

CFB Zeitgeist Score

74

Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by sacks at the 98th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#14725

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP DEFENSE AWARD

Nagurski

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R05 · Part-time starter

Part-time starter. Splitting first-team reps.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★
#1405 national
CFB
College
San Diego State
2023–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionEDGE
Class3
Jersey10
Measurements6-3 | 255 lb
HometownLas Vegas, NV
Primary teamSan Diego State

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 1405 recruit
Composite rating 0.8448 HighSchool
Signed with San Diego State 2022
Origin Canyon Springs North Las Vegas, NV, USA
Class Profile Context
2022 3-star | 0.8448 No. 1405 recruit | HighSchool | San Diego State

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 1 Programs changed on file
Latest destination Texas A&M 2026
Transfer stars 3-star CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility Immediate Jan 6, 2026
Season Move Context
2026 San Diego State -> Texas A&M 3-star | 0.8600 | Immediate

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#14725Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#14805Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to San Diego State

Composite

0.8448

#1405 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Ryan Henderson

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Ryan Henderson

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the defensive totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 10g
21Tackles
9Tackles for loss
7Sacks
Per game
2Tackles
0.9Tackles for loss
0.7Sacks
Projected (13g)
27Tackles
11.7Tackles for loss
9.1Sacks

To hit 80-tackle season (currently 21): needs 19.7/game over remaining 3.

To hit 100-tackle season (currently 21): needs 26.3/game over remaining 3.

✓ Hit 6-sack season · finished with 7.

To hit 10-sack season (currently 7): needs 1/game over remaining 3.

Why this is a rare defensive case

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Ryan Henderson is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on San Diego State's defense, with 7.0 sacks, 9.0 tackles for loss, and -- interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.

Current place #14725 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load -- Role share still loading
Profile quirk Defensive rarity 7.0 sacks | 9.0 TFL

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

DEF season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Total tackles 21 17 solo | #1929/4942 (61st pct)
TFL 9.0 Backfield disruption | #142/4972 (97th pct)
Sacks 7.0 Pass-rush finish | #39/4972 (99th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

High-disruption defender against FBS defenders.

High-disruption defender

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Tackling & Disruption

TOT
21 61st
SOLO
17 73rd
TFL
9.0 97th
SACK
7.0 99th
QBH
4 85th

Coverage & Takeaways

PD
1 43rd

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 10 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppTKLSOLOTFLSACKINTPDNote
Wk 1W 42-0vs Stony Brook221.00.00
Wk 2L 13-36@ Washington State110.00.00
Wk 4W 34-0vs California211.01.00
Wk 5W 6-3@ Northern Illinois211.01.00
Wk 7W 44-10@ Nevada111.01.00
Wk 9W 23-0@ Fresno State220.00.00
Wk 10W 24-7vs Wyoming221.01.01
Wk 13W 25-3vs San José State333.02.002 sacks
Wk 14L 17-23@ New Mexico541.01.00Season-high 5 tackles
BowlL 47-49vs North Texas100.00.00
Total21179.07.01
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2023San Diego State4-8HC: Brady Hoke · Run-leaning
2025San Diego State9-4HC: Sean Lewis · Run-heavy
SeasonTeam
2025San Diego State21179.07.01----
2023San Diego State651.01.0------
Career2 loaded seasons272210.08.01----
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Disruption stats

TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.

Coverage splash

Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

INT -- -- pick-six TD
Pass breakups 1 Coverage disruption | #1241/2184 (43rd pct)
QB pressures 4 Quarterback hurries | #291/1878 (85th pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Defense Total tackles 21 #1929/4942 61st pct Volumevs FBS DEF
Defense TFL 9.0 #142/4972 97th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Sacks 7.0 #39/4972 99th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Pass breakups 1 #1241/2184 43rd pct Coveragevs FBS DEF
Defense QB hurries 4 #291/1878 85th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Solo tackles 17 #1252/4584 73rd pct Volumevs FBS DEF

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 10 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Home5g2.01.20.80.2
Road5g2.20.60.60.0

Win vs Loss

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Wins7g2.01.10.90.1
Losses3g2.30.30.30.0

First half vs Second half

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Weeks 1-76g1.50.70.50.0
Weeks 8+4g3.01.21.00.2

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the EDGE cohort

74Solid starter
6 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: sacks (98th). Strength: tackles for loss (94th).

Sacks#39 / 2975 · 98th pct
7.0defe
Tackles for loss#142 / 2975 · 95th pct
9.0defe
QB hurries#288 / 2975 · 88th pct
4defe
Solo tackles#1252 / 2975 · 56th pct
17defe
Passes defended#1191 / 2975 · 48th pct
1defe
Tackles#1929 / 2975 · 34th pct
21defe

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · EDGE · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 6 metrics
Ryan HendersonSan Diego StateMaverick BaranowskiMinnesota· 68% simAmare CampbellPenn State· 68% simOumar DiomandeUConn· 68% sim
Sacks
98
Henderson
89
Baranowski
89
Campbell
96
Diomande
Tackles for loss
95
Henderson
95
Baranowski
96
Campbell
93
Diomande
QB hurries
88
Henderson
82
Baranowski
88
Campbell
92
Diomande
Solo tackles
56
Henderson
98
Baranowski
100
Campbell
100
Diomande
Passes defended
48
Henderson
48
Baranowski
48
Campbell
48
Diomande
Tackles
34
Henderson
98
Baranowski
99
Campbell
99
Diomande

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Speed Rusher

Bends the edge and wins with first-step quickness. Lighter frame, relentless motor.

EDGE

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Ali Fayad’s 2021 season.

Ali Fayad

81%match

Western Michigan · 2021

All-MAC
#2

Dennard Flowers

Arkansas State · 2022

79%
#3

Malachi Lawrence

UCF · 2024

NFL Rd 1 · Pk 23
76%
#4

Cashius Howell

Bowling Green · 2023

All-MACNFL Rd 2 · Pk 9
72%
#5

Nathan Latu

Oklahoma State · 2022

70%

Matches Ali on

Sack rate
Weight
Height

Not enough data yet for this comparison.

As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Jonah Elliss's junior season at Utah (2023).

Jonah Elliss

79%match

Utah · 2023

Consensus All-AmericanNFL Rd 3 · Pk 12
#2

Eli Hall

Liberty · 2025

76%
#3

Malachi Lawrence

UCF · 2024

All-Big 12NFL Rd 1 · Pk 23
73%
#4

Darris Smith

Missouri · 2025

70%
#5

Trey Moore

UTSA · 2023

All-AACNFL Rd 4
69%

Matches Jonah on

Class year
TFL rate
Weight

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Sean Lewis

Pass share

35.3%

290 pass / 532 run

Plays / game

63.2

13 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

7.6%

224 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Run-heavy.

Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025

2 coaches
2023
Brady Hoke
San Diego State
2025
Sean Lewis
San Diego State
era →

Coaching transition mid-career: Brady Hoke → Sean Lewis. Worth noting in scheme + development context.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownLas Vegas, NV
Height6'3"
Weight255 lb
Class3
PositionEDGE
Jersey10

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 San Diego State EDGE3 #14725 #14805 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | Mountain West
2023 San Diego State EDGE3 #14081 #14181 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | Mountain West
2022 San Diego State EDGE3 #11708 #11501 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | Mountain West

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 San Diego State Mountain West EDGE 3 No. 10 | 6-3 | 255 lb | Las Vegas, NV
2024 San Diego State Mountain West EDGE 3 No. 10 | 6-3 | 255 lb | Las Vegas, NV
2023 San Diego State Mountain West EDGE 3 No. 10 | 6-3 | 255 lb | Las Vegas, NV
2022 San Diego State Mountain West EDGE 3 No. 10 | 6-3 | 255 lb | Las Vegas, NV