Heisman / Players / Rocco Becht /Iowa State

Rocco Becht

QB · Iowa State · Jr · #3

One of Usas of 2026-06-22

Rocco Becht carries 64 career passing TDs into Penn State, leaving Iowa State behind.

2,565PASS YDS16PASS TD111RUSH YDS

PERCEPTION ABOVE TAPE · PCTL GAP

-54

perception vs production percentile · 2025

Iowa State fans overwhelmingly claim him as family first and a player second, a bond that made his program departure sting harder than a typical transfer. The room is split, though — sentiment around his exit is not one-sided.

low confidence1 source

Minority viewA vocal minority argues the player-first framing was always the more accurate read, and the move to Penn State proves it.

The fanbase would run through a wall for him; the tape grades at the 34th. Does the love still need the numbers?

Read the story so far

Becht posted 2,565 passing yards and 16 touchdowns in 2025, quietly building a career ledger that now sits at 64 touchdown passes — fourth among returning QBs heading into 2026. The why-now is the transfer: he is Penn State's quarterback now, and what he does in a new system with higher national visibility will either validate the loyalty narrative Iowa State fans built around him or rewrite it entirely.

Penn State's schedule will answer questions Iowa State's never had to ask.

Why nowHe changed programs heading into 2026 — a fresh fit to prove out.

season totals
perception vs production percentile · 2025
throne-line + Filling-the-Shoes
compiled from tagged fan discourse

AI narrative · updated 2026-06-22 · compiled from CFB Zeitgeist data

2026 TRANSFERTransferred Iowa State → Penn State for 2026As of Jun 22, 2026

Where He Ended Up · Transfer

Transferred to Penn State

2025Iowa State

2026Penn State

View Iowa State career stats ↓

QB · IOWA STATE · BIG 12

Rocco Becht

3
#3
6-1 | 210 lb
Zephyrhills, FL

CFB Zeitgeist Score

Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by yards / att at the 68th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#415

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP QB AWARD

Davey O'Brien

—

CONSENSUS

All-American

—

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R07 · Impact starter

Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Aura™ · Him Watch the full board →

Aura tax +54aura tax

Fans rank this player in the 88th percentile of QBs; the tape says 34th — more hype than the tape.

Aura — fan perception88th pctl

Production — on-field34th pctl

n=76 mentions · cohort: QBs · 160 qualified · perception = conversation volume, production = wepa_passing

Development Trajectory · passing yards

2022–2025

65.02022

3,1202023

2,5652025

+3846%

Up 3846% from first season to most-recent.

Career Arc

Recruit

★★★

#572 national

CFB

College

Iowa State

2022–2025

NFL

NFL Draft

—

Not drafted (yet)

Heisman futures · live sportsbook odds

#22 in market ▼ from #19 · 6 books

+50002.0% implied

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionQB

Class3

Jersey3

Measurements6-1 | 210 lb

HometownZephyrhills, FL

Primary teamIowa State

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 572 recruit

Composite rating 0.8797 HighSchool

Signed with -- 2022

Origin Wiregrass Ranch Zephyrhills, FL, USA

Class	Profile	Context
2022	3-star \| 0.8797	No. 572 recruit \| HighSchool

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 1 Programs changed on file

Latest destination Penn State 2026

Transfer stars 4-star CFBD transfer rating context

Eligibility Immediate Jan 4, 2026

Season	Move	Context
2026	Iowa State -> Penn State	4-star \| 0.9400 \| Immediate

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16

Current nowcast#415Latest modeled ballot order

Season forecast#278Where the full season sim points

Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy

Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier

Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot

Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

Achievements

Volume King 1.3%
Program Benchmark 5.5%

Selector Grid · 2025

AP—

FWAA—

AFCA—

WCFF—

SN—

SI—

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

NIL Valuation · On3

$1.24M

#83 nationally · Jun 2026

Whisper Rate

$1.00M

per-deal market estimate

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to —

Composite

0.8797

#572 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

Belief Meter

Mixed Sentiment

Sample 70 mentions

Confidence HIGH

Top Take

Trajectory

Cohort divergence map

Own fans · n=70
Rivals · n=2
National · n=9

Only 2 rival mention(s) — below the 4-mention floor for a defensible read.

2025 Signature · 2025 season

Yards per attempt

7.6

yds

P4 + Notre Dame QBs, min 150 attempts

National rank #32 of 72

Percentile vs P4 + Notre Dame QBs, min 150 attempts 56th

Why it matters

#32 of 72 P4 + Notre Dame QBs at 7.6 yards per attempt (337 attempts).

Vs cohort

This player 7.6 (56th)

HIGH · n=337 cohort 72

Also strong
QB rushing weighted-EPA#19 / 46
Combined WEPA per play (pass + rush)#48 / 57
Passing yards (total)#35 / 72

Signature Moment

Week 6 at Cincinnati — 314 ypa

Result L 30-38

The week the volume broke through — put up 314 yds at Cincinnati.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the passing totals stand

projecting to 13-game

Through 12g

2,565Pass yards

16Pass TDs

9INT

Per game

213.8Pass yards

1Pass TDs

1INT

Projected (13g)

2,779Pass yards

17Pass TDs

10INT

To hit 3,000-yard season (currently 2,565): needs 435/game over remaining 1.

To hit 4,000-yard season (currently 2,565): needs 1,435/game over remaining 1.

To hit 25 passing TDs (currently 16): needs 9/game over remaining 1.

To hit 30 passing TDs (currently 16): needs 14/game over remaining 1.

To hit 35 passing TDs (currently 16): needs 19/game over remaining 1.

Why this is a two-channel quarterback case

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

The unusual part of Rocco Becht's case is that the production comes in two channels, not one. For Iowa State, he has 2,565 passing yards and 16 touchdown passes, but he also adds 111 rushing yards and 8 rushing scores. That kind of dual-threat load tends to create a more resilient Heisman case because the offense can tilt the game in multiple ways.

Current place #415 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist

Role load 44.8% Overall usage share

Profile quirk Development arc The card should explain why this profile stands out

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

QB season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level

Pass yards 2,565 16 TD | 9 INT | #58/382 (85th pct)

Completion rate 60.5% 204/337 completions | #201/383 (48th pct)

Yards/attempt 7.6 Explosiveness through the air | #118/382 (69th pct)

Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

High-volume passer against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.

High-volume passer

Passing Efficiency

CMP

204 84th

ATT

337 86th

CMP%

60.5% 48th

Y/A

7.6 69th

Passing Production

YDS

2,565 85th

16 85th

INT

9 12th

Rushing

CAR

87 84th

YDS

111 69th

YPC

1.3 29th

8 92nd

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 12 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	Note
Wk 1	W 24-21@ Kansas State	14/28	183	2	0	6.5	71.9	3 TD passes
Wk 1	W 55-7vs South Dakota	19/20	278	3	0	13.9	95.4	3 TD passes
Wk 2	W 16-13vs Iowa	18/27	134	1	0	5.0	52.8
Wk 3	W 24-16@ Arkansas State	14/25	265	1	1	10.6	69.7
Wk 5	W 39-14vs Arizona	14/20	243	0	1	12.2	94.6
Wk 6	L 30-38@ Cincinnati	30/48	314	2	0	6.5	47.2	Season-high 314 yds
Wk 7	L 17-24@ Colorado	18/33	205	0	1	6.2	36.2
Wk 9	L 27-41vs BYU	24/36	311	1	3	8.6	35.5	3 INTs — rough day
Wk 10	L 19-24vs Arizona State	18/36	186	1	1	5.2	38.0
Wk 11	W 20-17@ TCU	9/24	111	1	2	4.6	58.3
Wk 13	W 38-14vs Kansas	18/23	241	3	0	10.5	97.8	3 TD passes
Wk 14	W 20-13@ Oklahoma State	8/17	94	1	0	5.5	37.4
Total		204/337	2565	16	9	7.9	61.2

Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2022Iowa State4-8HC: Matt Campbell · Pass-leaning

2023Iowa State7-6HC: Matt Campbell · Balanced, slow tempo

2025Iowa State8-4HC: Matt Campbell · Run-leaning

Season	Team
2025	Iowa State	204	337	60.5%	2,565	7.6	16	9	134.8	--	--
2023	Iowa State	231	367	62.9%	3,120	8.5	23	8	150.7	--	--
2022	Iowa State	7	15	46.7%	65	4.3	0	1	69.7	--	--
Career	3 loaded seasons	442	719	61.5%	5,750	8.0	39	18	141.5	--	--

Season	Team
2025	Iowa State	87	111	1.3	8	--
2023	Iowa State	62	63	1.0	3	--
2022	Iowa State	1	2	2.0	0	--
Career	3 loaded seasons	150	176	1.2	11	--

Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context

Passing WEPA

Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.

Role share

How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Rush impact 111 8 rush TD | #128/408 (69th pct)

Usage 44.8% 85.1% pass share | 12.9% rush share | #117/428 (73rd pct)

Passing WEPA +0.24 Opponent-adjusted passing value | #118/200 (42nd pct)

Open full stat explorer

Group	Metric	Value	Rank	Pct	Why it matters
Passing	Passing yards	2,565	#58/382	85th pct	Volumevs FBS QB
Passing	Pass TD	16	#63/407	85th pct	Scoringvs FBS QB
Passing	Completions	204	#63/383	84th pct	Volumevs FBS QB
Passing	Completion %	60.5%	#201/383	48th pct	Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Passing	Yards / attempt	7.6	#118/382	69th pct	Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Rushing	Rushing yards	111	#128/408	69th pct	Volumevs FBS QB
Value	Passing WEPA	+0.24	#118/200	42nd pct	Opponent-adjusted passing value \| 331 weighted playsvs FBS QB
Usage	Role share	44.8%	#117/428	73rd pct	Share of team offensevs FBS QB
Passing	Attempts	337	#59/407	86th pct	Volumevs FBS QB
Passing	Interceptions	9	#359/407	12th pct	Turnoversvs FBS QB
Rushing	Carries	87	#68/408	84th pct	Volumevs FBS QB
Rushing	Rushing LONG	25	#138/391	65th pct	Metricvs FBS QB
Rushing	Rush TD	8	#33/408	92nd pct	Scoringvs FBS QB
Rushing	Yards / carry	1.3	#288/407	29th pct	Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Usage	Pass share	85.1%	#96/428	78th pct	Air-game usagevs FBS QB
Usage	3rd-down usage	68.3%	#45/428	90th pct	Money-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage	Passing-down usage	68.3%	#55/428	87th pct	Known-passing sharevs FBS QB
Usage	2nd-down usage	41.9%	#133/428	69th pct	Middle-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage	Standard-down usage	34.9%	#140/428	68th pct	Base-situation sharevs FBS QB
Usage	1st-down usage	34.6%	#141/428	67th pct	Early-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage	Rush share	12.9%	#127/428	71st pct	Ground-game usagevs FBS QB
Value	Rushing WEPA	+0.35	#26/140	82nd pct	Opponent-adjusted rushing value \| 64 weighted playsvs FBS QB
Ball Security	Fumbles lost	1	#69/258	74th pct	Turnoversvs FBS QB

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

Status—Awaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 12 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home6g	232	1.5	9.2	0.8
Road6g	195	1.2	6.6	0.7

Win vs Loss

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Wins8g	194	1.5	8.6	0.5
Losses4g	254	1.0	6.6	1.2

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-77g	232	1.3	8.7	0.4
Weeks 8+5g	189	1.4	6.9	1.2

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

55Solid starter

8 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: rush tds (81st). Concern: interceptions (21st).

Rush TDs#31 / 183 · 81st pct

8rush

Pass yards#58 / 183 · 69th pct

2565pass

Yards / att#57 / 183 · 68th pct

7.6pass

Fumbles lost#32 / 174 · 66th pct

1fumb

Pass TDs#63 / 183 · 64th pct

16pass

Rush yards#100 / 183 · 46th pct

111rush

Completion %#113 / 183 · 38th pct

60.5%pass

Interceptions#135 / 183 · 22nd pct

9pass

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Pass Profile · Completion depth (PBP)

Where the throws are landing

120/198 (60.6%) · 5 TD · 4 INT

Short

0–9 yds

49%of completions

59 comp5.2 yds avg3 TD

Middle

10–19 yds

34%of completions

41 comp13.8 yds avg2 TD

Deep

20+ yds

17%of completions

20 comp33.5 yds avg

Overall 60.6% completion on 198 attempts · 20 deep completions averaging 33.5 yds.

EPA / dropback0.240

23th pct

CPOE—

awaiting

Success rate—

awaiting

Explosive rate (20+)—

awaiting

aDOT—

awaiting

Deep-ball accuracy—

awaiting

Pressure-to-sack—

awaiting

3rd-down EPA—

awaiting

Red-zone TD rate—

awaiting

Play-action EPA—

awaiting

Scramble EPA—

awaiting

Turnover-worthy play rate—

awaiting

wepa_passing0.24Low (p25–p50) (n=94)Mid (p50–p75) (n=106)Low (p25–p50) (n=200)

wepa_rushing0.35Mid (p50–p75) (n=72)Elite (≥p90) (n=68)High (p75–p90) (n=140)

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 8 metrics

Rocco BechtIowa StateJohn MateerOklahoma· 86% simJC FrenchGeorgia Southern· 85% simJamal MorrisVirginia· 81% sim

Rush TDs

81
Becht

81
Mateer

74
French

68
Morris

Pass yards

69
Becht

76
Mateer

77
French

80
Morris

Yards / att

68
Becht

57
Mateer

63
French

42
Morris

Fumbles lost

66
Becht

66
Mateer

66
French

91
Morris

Pass TDs

64
Becht

58
Mateer

77
French

64
Morris

Rush yards

46
Becht

79
Mateer

72
French

65
Morris

Completion %

38
Becht

49
Mateer

62
French

67
Morris

Interceptions

22
Becht

10
Mateer

32
French

22
Morris

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Pocket Passer

Balanced passer who operates within the system. Profile sits near league average across dimensions.

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Blake Shapen’s 2022 season.

Blake Shapen

81%match

Baylor · 2022

Blake Shapen

Mississippi State · 2025

77%

Jack Layne

New Mexico · 2025

75%

JC French

Georgia Southern · 2025

75%

Sean Clifford

Penn State · 2021

NFL Rd 5

73%

Matches Blake on

Height

Rush usage

Weight

Differs from Blake on

Completion % (lower)

Through 4 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Malik Willis’s path through Liberty.

Malik Willis

98%match

Liberty · 2021

Tyler Huff

Jacksonville State · 2024

89%

Carlos Davis

Towson · 2024

86%

Brock Domann

Louisville · 2022

85%

Dequan Finn

Miami (OH) · 2025

All-MAC

85%

Matches Malik on

Height

Completion %

Yards per attempt

As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to John Mateer's senior season at Oklahoma (2025).

John Mateer

69%match

Oklahoma · 2025

Maverick McIvor

Western Kentucky · 2025

59%

Hank Bachmeier

Louisiana Tech · 2023

56%

Robby Ashford

Wake Forest · 2025

54%

Alonza Barnett

James Madison · 2025

All-Sun Belt

54%

Matches John on

Completion %

Differs from John on

Weight (lower)

Rush usage (lower)

Rush yards / carry (lower)

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Matt Campbell

Pass share

42.4%

345 pass / 469 run

Plays / game

67.8

12 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

6.8%

296 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Run-leaning.

Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025

1 coach

2022

Matt Campbell

Iowa State

2023

Matt Campbell

Iowa State

2025

Matt Campbell

Iowa State

Played his entire career under Matt Campbell.

HometownZephyrhills, FL

Height6'1"

Weight210 lb

Class3

PositionQB

Jersey3

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season	Honor	Scope	Team / Selector	Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season	Team	Role	Latest Model	Forecast	Win	Finalist	Official Finish	Points	Context
2024	Iowa State	QB3	#415	#278	0.0%	0.0%	--	--	W16 snapshot \| Big 12
2023	Iowa State	QB3	#46	#63	0.0%	0.0%	--	--	W19 snapshot \| Big 12
2022	Iowa State	QB3	#1403	#1447	0.0%	0.0%	--	--	W20 snapshot \| Big 12

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season	Team	Conference	Pos	Class	Bio
2025	Iowa State	Big 12	QB	3	No. 3 \| 6-1 \| 210 lb \| Zephyrhills, FL
2024	Iowa State	Big 12	QB	3	No. 3 \| 6-1 \| 210 lb \| Zephyrhills, FL
2023	Iowa State	Big 12	QB	3	No. 3 \| 6-1 \| 210 lb \| Zephyrhills, FL
2022	Iowa State	Big 12	QB	3	No. 3 \| 6-1 \| 210 lb \| Zephyrhills, FL

Rocco Becht

R07 · Impact starter

+3846%

Identity & Role

Recruiting Pedigree

Transfer Arc

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

The Room on Rocco Becht

How rival fanbases talk about Rocco Becht

Yards per attempt

Why this is a two-channel quarterback case

2025 Season · Final

QB season snapshot

What kind of player is this?

2025 Season · Final

Traditional Stats

Advanced Metrics

Player Standing

Percentile Card

Advanced Savant

The Pocket Passer

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Trophy Case · Detail

No formal honors on the ledger yet

Honors Timeline

Heisman By Year

Roster Timeline