CFB Zeitgeist Score
81
All-Conference in the position cohort. Carried by yards / carry at the 91st percentile.
Rayshon Luke
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
699 RUSH YDS · 6 RUSH TD · 110 CARRIES
2026 Outlook
Returning to Fresno State for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Running back · Fresno State
Returning around him
- 17% of 2024 offensive production back (Heavy turnover)
- Transfer portal: +3 net (13 in / 10 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Fresno State · Last season: 9-4 · Talent rank #90 · 2026 recruiting class #103
RB · FRESNO STATE · MOUNTAIN WEST
Rayshon Luke
- 3
- #2
- 5-9 | 180 lb
- South Main, CA
Heisman Heat
#1234
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · rushing yards
2022–2025+566%
Up 566% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4-star | 0.9178 | No. 212 recruit | HighSchool | Arizona |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in rushing yards (699).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★★☆
to Arizona
Composite
0.9178
#212 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Rayshon Luke
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
—
Awaiting per-cohort signal
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Rivals · n=2
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Rayshon Luke
Only 2 rival mention(s) — below the 4-mention floor for a defensible read.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Receiving TDs
2
count
All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions
National rank #302 of 531
Percentile vs All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions 43rd
Why it matters
#302 of 531 All FBS WRs in receiving TDs — 2 TDs on 36 receptions.
Vs cohort
This player 2 (43th)
HIGH · n=36 cohort 531
- Also strong
- Receiving yards (total)#471 / 531
- Yards per reception#523 / 531
Signature Moment
Week 7 at Colorado State — 1 receiving_tds
Result L 21-49
The week the volume broke through — stacked 1 td at Colorado State.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 13g
699Rush yards
110Carries
6Rush TDs
Per game
53.8Rush yards
8Carries
0Rush TDs
Final
699Rush yards
110Carries
6Rush TDs
Why this is more than a rushing profile
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Rayshon Luke is not a one-lane back. The profile is interesting because the workload spills beyond pure rushing volume: 699 rushing yards, 36 catches, and 341 return yards for Fresno State. That kind of all-purpose footprint gives the card a much richer story than a basic carry total.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Workhorse | Efficient runner | Passing-game back against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
110 81st
YDS
699 88th
YPC
6.4 88th
TD
6 89th
Receiving
REC
36 97th
YDS
228 94th
YPR
6.3 42nd
TD
2 97th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 13 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 7-31@ Kansas | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 0 | 9 | Season-high 96 yds |
| Wk 1 | W 42-14vs Georgia Southern | 10 | 96 | 9.6 | 3 | 29 | Season-high 96 yds |
| Wk 2 | W 36-27@ Oregon State | 12 | 86 | 7.2 | 1 | 44 | |
| Wk 3 | W 56-7vs Southern | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 1 | 19 | |
| Wk 4 | W 23-21@ Hawai'i | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 | 8 | |
| Wk 6 | W 20-17vs Nevada | 8 | 83 | 10.4 | 0 | 68 | |
| Wk 7 | L 21-49@ Colorado State | 5 | 38 | 7.6 | 0 | 14 | |
| Wk 9 | L 0-23vs San Diego State | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 | 9 | |
| Wk 10 | W 30-7@ Boise State | 16 | 88 | 5.5 | 0 | 23 | |
| Wk 12 | W 24-3vs Wyoming | 16 | 92 | 5.8 | 0 | 24 | |
| Wk 13 | L 17-28vs Utah State | 4 | 81 | 20.3 | 1 | 69 | |
| Wk 14 | W 41-14@ San José State | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Bowl | W 18-3vs Miami (OH) | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 | 4 | |
| Total | 110 | 699 | 6.7 | 6 | 69 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022Arizona5-7HC: Jedd Fisch · Pass-leaning
2023Arizona10-3HC: Jedd Fisch · Balanced
2024Arizona4-8HC: Brent Brennan · Pass-leaning
2025Fresno State9-4HC: Matt Entz · Run-leaning
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Fresno State | 110 | 699 | 6.4 | 6 | -- |
| 2024 | Arizona | 4 | 13 | 3.2 | 0 | -- |
| 2023 | Arizona | 37 | 153 | 4.1 | 1 | -- |
| 2022 | Arizona | 15 | 105 | 7.0 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 4 loaded seasons | 166 | 970 | 5.8 | 7 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Fresno State | 36 | 228 | 6.3 | 2 | -- |
| 2024 | Arizona | 6 | 52 | 8.7 | 0 | -- |
| 2023 | Arizona | 4 | 95 | 23.8 | 0 | -- |
| 2022 | Arizona | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 4 loaded seasons | 47 | 376 | 8.0 | 2 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 699 | #88/735 | 88th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 6 | #83/739 | 89th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 6.4 | #86/735 | 88th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 36 | #15/552 | 97th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 228 | #36/548 | 94th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.23 | #35/362 | 91st pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 107 weighted playsvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 17.1% | #129/738 | 83rd pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 110 | #138/739 | 81st pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 69 | #66/733 | 91st pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 23 | #190/540 | 65th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 6.3 | #320/548 | 42nd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 2 | #20/552 | 97th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Returns | Kick return yards | 341 | #15/200 | 93rd pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Returns | Kick return avg | 21.3 | #62/199 | 69th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Returns | Kick returns | 16 | #10/206 | 96th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 23.5% | #204/738 | 72nd pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 19.8% | #146/738 | 80th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 18.8% | #114/738 | 85th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 17.9% | #167/738 | 78th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 15.6% | #54/738 | 93rd pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 9.7% | #36/738 | 95th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 9.3% | #224/738 | 70th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 0 | #1/256 | 100th pct | Turnoversvs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 13 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 60.0 | 8.4 | 0.7 |
| Road6g | 46.5 | 4.8 | 0.2 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins9g | 60.7 | 5.9 | 0.6 |
| Losses4g | 38.2 | 8.5 | 0.2 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-78g | 49.1 | 6.0 | 0.6 |
| Weeks 8+5g | 61.2 | 7.9 | 0.2 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
81All-Conference
Elite: receptions (95th). Strength: yards / carry (90th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_rushing0.23High (p75–p90) (n=178)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Rayshon LukeFresno StateDaylan SmothersNC State· 89% simWayne KnightJames Madison· 84% simDontae McMillanEastern Michigan· 84% sim
Receptions
Yards / carry
Rec yards
Fumbles lost
Long run
Rush yards
Rush TDs
Carries
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Complete Back
Threatens defenses in every dimension — rushing, receiving, third-down.
RB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Treshaun Ward’s 2021 season.
Treshaun Ward
68%match
#2
Sutton Smith
All-AACNFL Rd 6
66%
#3
Stacy Sneed
66%
#4
Jai'Den Thomas
All-Mountain West
65%
#5
Malik Sherrod
65%
Matches Treshaun on
Total rush EPA (college ability)
Weight
Receiving share
Differs from Treshaun on
Recruiting rating (higher)
Height (lower)
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Sutton Smith's senior season at Memphis (2025).
Sutton Smith
71%match
All-AACNFL Rd 6
#2
Wayne Knight
All-Sun Belt
57%
#3
Malik Sherrod
57%
#4
Damon Bankston
All-Mountain West
56%
#5
Lawrance Toafili
54%
Matches Sutton on
Yards / carry
Yards / reception
Weight
Differs from Sutton on
Receiving share (higher)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Matt Entz
Pass share
44.2%
373 pass / 471 run
Plays / game
64.9
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
6.4%
282 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
3 coaches2022
Jeff Tedford
Fresno State
2023
Jeff Tedford
Fresno State
2024era →
Tim Skipper
Fresno State
2025era →
Matt Entz
Fresno State
Played under 3 different head coaches: Jeff Tedford, Tim Skipper, and Matt Entz. Multi-era developmental context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownSouth Main, CA
Height5'9"
Weight180 lb
Class3
PositionRB
Jersey2
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamFresno State
ConferenceMountain West
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Fresno State | Mountain West | RB | 3 | No. 2 | 5-9 | 180 lb | South Main, CA |
| 2024 | Arizona | Big 12 | RB | 3 | No. 2 | 5-9 | 180 lb | South Main, CA |
| 2023 | Arizona | Pac-12 | RB | 3 | No. 2 | 5-9 | 180 lb | South Main, CA |
| 2022 | Arizona | Pac-12 | RB | 3 | No. 2 | 5-9 | 180 lb | South Main, CA |