CFB Zeitgeist Score
52
Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by yards / catch at the 99th percentile.
Quin Smith
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
358 REC YDS · 15 REC · 4 REC TD
2026 Outlook
Returning to Air Force for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Wide receiver · Air Force
Returning around him
- 63% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- Transfer portal: -4 net (0 in / 4 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Air Force · Last season: 4-8 · 2026 recruiting class #129
WR · AIR FORCE · MOUNTAIN WEST
Quin Smith
- 4
- #18
- 6-1 | 200 lb
- Adairsville, GA
Heisman Heat
#5057
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP WR AWARD
Biletnikoff
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · receiving yards
2023–2025+3480%
Up 3480% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
—
CFB
College
Air Force
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Heisman futures · live sportsbook odds
#8 in market ▼ from #6 · 4 books
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No recruiting profile is on file for this player. | ||
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Quin Smith
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Quin Smith
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the receiving totals stand
Through 10g
358Rec yards
15Receptions
4Rec TDs
Per game
35.8Rec yards
2Receptions
0Rec TDs
Projected (13g)
465.4Rec yards
20Receptions
5Rec TDs
To hit 700-yard receiver (currently 358): needs 114/game over remaining 3.
To hit 1,000-yard receiver (currently 358): needs 214/game over remaining 3.
To hit 60-catch season (currently 15): needs 15/game over remaining 3.
To hit 80-catch season (currently 15): needs 21.7/game over remaining 3.
To hit 8 receiving TDs (currently 4): needs 1.3/game over remaining 3.
To hit 10 receiving TDs (currently 4): needs 2/game over remaining 3.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Quin Smith's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Air Force, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
WR season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Big-play receiver against FBS receiving peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Receiving
REC
15 56th
YDS
358 72nd
YPR
23.9 96th
TD
4 86th
Rushing
CAR
1 35th
YDS
-9 3rd
YPC
-9.0 2nd
TD
0 81st
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 10 games
| Wk | Opp | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 49-13vs Bucknell | 1 | 40 | 40.0 | 1 | 40 | |
| Wk 3 | L 30-49@ Utah State | 2 | 45 | 22.5 | 0 | 32 | |
| Wk 4 | L 37-49vs Boise State | 3 | 65 | 21.7 | 1 | 32 | |
| Wk 5 | L 35-44vs Hawai'i | 3 | 110 | 36.7 | 1 | 52 | Season-high 110 yds |
| Wk 6 | L 31-34@ Navy | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 | 15 | |
| Wk 10 | L 17-20vs Army | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 | 16 | |
| Wk 11 | W 26-16@ San José State | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 1 | 12 | |
| Wk 12 | L 16-26@ UConn | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | 12 | |
| Wk 13 | L 3-20vs New Mexico | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Wk 14 | W 42-21@ Colorado State | 2 | 43 | 21.5 | 0 | 27 | |
| Total | 15 | 358 | 21.9 | 4 | 52 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2023Air Force9-4HC: Troy Calhoun · Run-heavy, slow tempo
2025Air Force4-8HC: Troy Calhoun · Run-heavy
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
The player's share of a team's passing-game involvement. It is the fastest way to see whether the receiver is a true focal point or more of a complementary piece.
A blended workload view that accounts for catches, designed touches, and any return-game involvement that shapes the overall profile.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | Receptions | 15 | #484/1110 | 56th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 358 | #314/1107 | 72nd pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 4 | #152/1111 | 86th pct | Scoringvs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 23.9 | #40/1106 | 96th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Pass share | 17.0% | #169/1137 | 85th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Carries | 1 | #264/407 | 35th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 0 | #81/411 | 81st pct | Scoringvs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | -9 | #386/397 | 3rd pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | -9.0 | #387/393 | 2nd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 52 | #244/1105 | 78th pct | Metricvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 6.2% | #576/1137 | 49th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 6.0% | #550/1137 | 52nd pct | Money-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Role share | 3.8% | #645/1137 | 43rd pct | Share of team offensevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 3.1% | #692/1137 | 39th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 3.1% | #783/1137 | 31st pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 3.1% | #669/1137 | 41st pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | Rush share | 0.2% | #374/1137 | 67th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS WR |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 10 games
Home vs Road
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home5g | 1.6 | 46.2 | 28.6 | 0.6 |
| Road5g | 1.4 | 25.4 | 16.6 | 0.2 |
Win vs Loss
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins3g | 1.3 | 31.7 | 24.5 | 0.7 |
| Losses7g | 1.6 | 37.6 | 20.7 | 0.3 |
First half vs Second half
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-75g | 2.0 | 55.0 | 27.2 | 0.6 |
| Weeks 8+5g | 1.0 | 16.6 | 15.4 | 0.2 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort
52Mid-pack
Elite: yards / catch (99th). Concern: rush yards (2nd).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · WR · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Quin SmithAir ForceHarrison Wallace IIIOle Miss· 63% simQue'Sean BrownDuke· 60% simChris Dawn Jr.Texas State· 60% sim
Yards / catch
Rec TDs
Long catch
Rec yards
Rush TDs
Receptions
Rush yards
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Deep Threat
Stretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play.
WR
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Andrel Anthony Jr.’s 2021 season.
Andrel Anthony Jr.
62%match
#2
Corey Rucker
54%
#3
David Cormier
58%
#4
Jeff Foreman
44%
#5
Wondame Davis Jr.
54%
Matches Andrel on
Height
TD rate
Differs from Andrel on
Weight (higher)
Yards / reception (higher)
Class year (higher)
Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to D'Wayne Eskridge’s path through Western Michigan.
D'Wayne Eskridge
80%match
All-MACNFL Rd 2 · Pk 24
#2
Trea Shropshire
74%
#3
T.J. Luther
69%
#4
Dont'E Thornton
69%
#5
Davion Dozier
68%
Matches D'Wayne on
Yards per reception
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Casey Reynolds's junior season at Army (2024).
Casey Reynolds
38%match
#2
Arhmad Branch
37%
#3
Theo Wease Jr.
36%
#4
Davion Dozier
32%
#5
Carl Chester
26%
Matches Casey on
Height
Differs from Casey on
EPA / play (adj) (lower)
TD rate (higher)
Yards / reception (higher)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Troy Calhoun
Pass share
20.0%
163 pass / 650 run
Plays / game
67.8
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
10.6%
151 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-heavy.
Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025
1 coach2023
Troy Calhoun
Air Force
2025
Troy Calhoun
Air Force
Played his entire career under Troy Calhoun.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownAdairsville, GA
Height6'1"
Weight200 lb
Class4
PositionWR
Jersey18
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamAir Force
ConferenceMountain West
Joined2025
Career arc3 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.