cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Pearson Baldwin /Jacksonville State

Pearson Baldwin

TE · Jacksonville State · Sr · #13

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

302 REC YDS · 26 REC · 2 REC TD

2026 RETURNINGReturning to Jacksonville State for 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to Jacksonville State for 2026

2026 Depth chart

Projected starter

Tight end · Jacksonville State

Returning around him

  • 84% of 2024 offensive production back (Strong continuity)
  • Transfer portal: +7 net (20 in / 13 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

Jacksonville State · Last season: 9-5 · Talent rank #111 · 2026 recruiting class #110

TE · JACKSONVILLE STATE · CONFERENCE USA

Pearson Baldwin

  • 4
  • #13
  • 6-2 | 225 lb
  • Springville, AL

CFB Zeitgeist Score

61

Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by rec yards at the 61st percentile.

Heisman Heat

#4634

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP TE AWARD

Mackey

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R07 · Impact starter

Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
No recruit profile
CFB
College
Jacksonville State
2023–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionTE
Class4
Jersey13
Measurements6-2 | 225 lb
HometownSpringville, AL
Primary teamJacksonville State

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree Not on file No matched recruiting profile in the loaded archive
Composite rating -- Composite rating unavailable for this player
Signed with -- Commitment history unavailable
Origin -- Hometown and high school unavailable
Class Profile Context
No recruiting profile is on file for this player.

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file
Latest destination -- --
Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD
Season Move Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#4634Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#5010Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

Achievements

  • Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in receiving yards (302).

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Pearson Baldwin

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Pearson Baldwin

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the receiving totals stand

final
Through 13g
302Rec yards
26Receptions
2Rec TDs
Per game
23.2Rec yards
2Receptions
0Rec TDs
Final
302Rec yards
26Receptions
2Rec TDs

What made this player interesting

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Pearson Baldwin's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Jacksonville State, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.

Current place #4634 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load 4.0% Overall usage share
Profile quirk All-purpose load The card should explain why this profile stands out

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

TE season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Receptions 26 2 rec TD | #71/475 (85th pct)
Receiving yards 302 11.6 per catch | #68/475 (86th pct)
Scrimmage yards 302 Total offensive yardage | #68/475 (86th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Target magnet against FBS receiving peers.

Target magnet

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Receiving

REC
26 85th
YDS
302 86th
YPR
11.6 69th
TD
2 84th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 13 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppRECYDSAVGTDLONGNote
Wk 1L 10-17@ UCF2115.506
Wk 2W 34-24vs Liberty133.003
Wk 3L 34-41@ Georgia Southern34214.0032
Wk 4W 45-10vs Murray State11414.0014
Wk 5L 25-42@ Southern Miss3113.706
Wk 7W 29-27@ Sam Houston57214.4023Season-high 72 yds
Wk 8W 38-25vs Delaware11111.0011
Wk 10W 24-21@ Middle Tennessee133.003
Wk 11W 30-27@ UTEP177.007
Wk 12W 35-26vs Kennesaw State26030.0052
Wk 13L 21-27@ Florida International34013.3120
Wk 14W 37-34vs Western Kentucky2189.0116
BowlW 17-13vs Troy11010.0010
Total2630210.6252
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2023Jacksonville State9-4HC: Rich Rodriguez · Run-heavy, fast tempo
2025Jacksonville State9-5HC: Charles Kelly · Run-heavy
SeasonTeam
2025Jacksonville State2630211.62--
2023Jacksonville State----------
Career2 loaded seasons2630211.62--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Pass share

The tight end's share of the passing offense, which helps distinguish a featured receiving tight end from a secondary option.

Role share

A blended usage view that shows how often the offense flows through the tight end compared with other same-level peers.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Usage 4.0% 11.4% pass-game share | #63/468 (87th pct)
Return yards 0 0 return TD
Touchdowns 2 Across offense and returns | #79/475 (84th pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Receiving Receptions 26 #71/475 85th pct Volumevs FBS TE
Receiving Receiving yards 302 #68/475 86th pct Volumevs FBS TE
Receiving Receiving TD 2 #79/475 84th pct Scoringvs FBS TE
Receiving Yards / catch 11.6 #146/475 69th pct Efficiencyvs FBS TE
Usage Pass share 11.4% #63/468 87th pct Air-game usagevs FBS TE
Receiving Receiving LONG 52 #31/475 94th pct Metricvs FBS TE
Usage Passing-down usage 6.2% #99/468 79th pct Known-passing sharevs FBS TE
Usage 2nd-down usage 4.8% #125/468 74th pct Middle-down loadvs FBS TE
Usage 3rd-down usage 4.8% #164/468 65th pct Money-down loadvs FBS TE
Usage Role share 4.0% #127/468 73rd pct Share of team offensevs FBS TE
Usage 1st-down usage 3.2% #198/468 58th pct Early-down loadvs FBS TE
Usage Standard-down usage 3.1% #205/468 56th pct Base-situation sharevs FBS TE
Usage Rush share 0.0% #58/468 88th pct Ground-game usagevs FBS TE

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

The Mackey award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 13 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Home6g1.319.312.80.2
Road7g2.626.68.70.1

Win vs Loss

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Wins9g1.722.011.30.1
Losses4g2.826.09.10.2

First half vs Second half

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Weeks 1-77g2.323.39.20.0
Weeks 8+6g1.723.212.20.3

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the TE cohort

61Solid starter
5 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: long catch (84th).

Long catch#27 / 175 · 84th pct
52rece
Yards / catch#59 / 175 · 66th pct
11.6rece
Rec yards#68 / 175 · 61st pct
302rece
Receptions#71 / 175 · 58th pct
26rece
Rec TDs#76 / 175 · 43rd pct
2rece

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · TE · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 5 metrics
Pearson BaldwinJacksonville StateRiley NowakowskiIndiana· 87% simNoah MeyersWestern Kentucky· 86% simJett CarpenterNevada· 85% sim
Long catch
84
Baldwin
69
Nowakowski
91
Meyers
71
Carpenter
Yards / catch
66
Baldwin
71
Nowakowski
60
Meyers
51
Carpenter
Rec yards
61
Baldwin
77
Nowakowski
70
Meyers
74
Carpenter
Receptions
58
Baldwin
75
Nowakowski
75
Meyers
80
Carpenter
Rec TDs
43
Baldwin
43
Nowakowski
66
Meyers
43
Carpenter

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Complete TE

Dual-threat: blocks when needed, catches when needed. Coveted on both sides.

TE

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Cooper Mathers’s 2023 season.

Cooper Mathers

83%match

Washington State · 2023

#2

Princeton Fant

Tennessee · 2021

71%
#3

Bryce Kennon

Charlotte · 2024

69%
#4

Gino Campiotti

Massachusetts · 2023

69%
#5

Jackson Canaan

San José State · 2022

67%

Matches Cooper on

Reception volume
Class year
Weight

Through 1 college season, his career arc tracks closest to Xavier Gaines’s path through Marshall.

Xavier Gaines

80%match

Marshall · 2021

All-Conference USA
#2

Tommy Tremble

Notre Dame · 2020

NFL Rd 3 · Pk 20
75%
#3

Hayden Hatten

Idaho · 2023

72%
#4

Hayden Pittman

UAB · 2021

All-Conference USA
68%
#5

Jaren Kanak

Oklahoma · 2025

NFL Rd 7
67%

Matches Xavier on

Yards per reception
Weight

Differs from Xavier on

Height (lower)

As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Roschon Johnson's junior season at Texas (2022).

Roschon Johnson

84%match

Texas · 2022

NFL Rd 4
#2

Cooper Mathers

Washington State · 2023

83%
#3

Alec Holler

UCF · 2023

79%
#4

Bru McCoy

Tennessee · 2023

79%
#5

TJ Harden

UCLA · 2024

76%

Matches Roschon on

Weight
Total EPA (college ability)
EPA / play (adj)

Differs from Roschon on

Reception volume (higher)

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Charles Kelly

Pass share

33.8%

328 pass / 642 run

Plays / game

69.3

14 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

7.8%

243 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Run-heavy.

Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025

2 coaches
2023
Rich Rodriguez
Jacksonville State
2025
Charles Kelly
Jacksonville State
era →

Coaching transition mid-career: Rich Rodriguez → Charles Kelly. Worth noting in scheme + development context.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownSpringville, AL
Height6'2"
Weight225 lb
Class4
PositionTE
Jersey13

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Jacksonville State TE4 #4634 #5010 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | Conference USA
2023 Jacksonville State TE4 #3990 #3708 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | Conference USA

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Jacksonville State Conference USA TE 4 No. 13 | 6-2 | 225 lb | Springville, AL
2024 Jacksonville State Conference USA TE 4 No. 13 | 6-2 | 225 lb | Springville, AL
2023 Jacksonville State Conference USA TE 4 No. 13 | 6-2 | 225 lb | Springville, AL