CFB Zeitgeist Score
63
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by rec yards at the 76th percentile.
Omari Kelly
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
626 REC YDS · 47 REC · 2 REC TD
2026 Outlook
Returning to Michigan State for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Returning starter
Wide receiver · Michigan State
Returning around him
- 69% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- 2 Michigan State players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -18 net (28 in / 46 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Michigan State · Last season: 4-8 · Talent rank #38 · 2026 recruiting class #57
WR · MICHIGAN STATE · BIG TEN
Omari Kelly
- 4
- #1
- 6-0 | 188 lb
- Trussville, AL
Heisman Heat
#5353
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP WR AWARD
Biletnikoff
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR06 · Starter
Starter. A locked-in starting role.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · receiving yards
2022–2025+1018%
Up 1018% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4-star | 0.8967 | No. 356 recruit | HighSchool | Auburn |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Middle Tennessee -> Michigan State | 3-star | 0.8900 | Immediate |
| 2024 | Auburn -> Middle Tennessee | 3-star | 0.8500 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★★☆
to Auburn
Composite
0.8967
#356 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Omari Kelly
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
50
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=2
- National · n=2
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Omari Kelly
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Yards per reception
13.3
yds
All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions
National rank #203 of 531
Percentile vs All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions 62nd
Why it matters
#203 of 531 All FBS WRs at 13.3 yards per reception (47 catches).
Vs cohort
This player 13.3 (62th)
HIGH · n=47 cohort 531
- Also strong
- Receiving yards (total)#130 / 531
- Receiving TDs#302 / 531
Signature Moment
Week 4 at USC — 133 ypr
Result L 31-45
The week the volume broke through — put up 133 yds at USC.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the receiving totals stand
Through 12g
626Rec yards
47Receptions
2Rec TDs
Per game
52.2Rec yards
4Receptions
0Rec TDs
Projected (13g)
678.2Rec yards
51Receptions
2Rec TDs
To hit 700-yard receiver (currently 626): needs 74/game over remaining 1.
To hit 1,000-yard receiver (currently 626): needs 374/game over remaining 1.
To hit 60-catch season (currently 47): needs 13/game over remaining 1.
To hit 80-catch season (currently 47): needs 33/game over remaining 1.
To hit 8 receiving TDs (currently 2): needs 6/game over remaining 1.
To hit 10 receiving TDs (currently 2): needs 8/game over remaining 1.
Why the honors trail matters
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
The useful clue on this card is not just the Heisman rank, but the broader honors spine. Omari Kelly already has 2 loaded recognition items, which helps distinguish a player who is merely productive from one who is already earning selector-level validation.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
WR season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Target magnet | All-purpose weapon against FBS receiving peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Receiving
REC
47 88th
YDS
626 88th
YPR
13.3 62nd
TD
2 75th
Rushing
CAR
6 82nd
YDS
33 77th
YPC
5.5 62nd
TD
0 81st
Returns
PR YDS
150 85th
PR AVG
12.5 82nd
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 12 games
| Wk | Opp | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 23-6vs Western Michigan | 7 | 75 | 10.7 | 0 | 21 | |
| Wk 2 | W 42-40vs Boston College | 4 | 60 | 15.0 | 0 | 30 | |
| Wk 3 | W 41-24vs Youngstown State | 4 | 49 | 12.3 | 0 | 20 | |
| Wk 4 | L 31-45@ USC | 6 | 133 | 22.2 | 1 | 75 | Season-high 133 yds |
| Wk 6 | L 27-38@ Nebraska | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | 9 | |
| Wk 7 | L 13-38vs UCLA | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 | 14 | |
| Wk 8 | L 13-38@ Indiana | 3 | 59 | 19.7 | 0 | 23 | |
| Wk 9 | L 20-31vs Michigan | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 | 15 | |
| Wk 10 | L 20-23@ Minnesota | 8 | 94 | 11.8 | 0 | 23 | |
| Wk 12 | L 10-28vs Penn State | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 | 6 | |
| Wk 13 | L 17-20@ Iowa | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 | |
| Wk 14 | W 38-28vs Maryland | 5 | 76 | 15.2 | 1 | 46 | |
| Total | 47 | 626 | 12.3 | 2 | 75 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022Auburn5-7HC: Cadillac Williams · Run-heavy
2023Auburn6-7HC: Hugh Freeze · Run-heavy
2025Michigan State4-8HC: Jonathan Smith · Balanced
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Michigan State | 47 | 626 | 13.3 | 2 | -- |
| 2023 | Auburn | 2 | 45 | 22.5 | 0 | -- |
| 2022 | Auburn | 3 | 56 | 18.7 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 52 | 727 | 14.0 | 2 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Michigan State | 6 | 33 | -- | 150 | -- |
| 2023 | Auburn | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2022 | Auburn | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 6 | 33 | -- | 150 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
The player's share of a team's passing-game involvement. It is the fastest way to see whether the receiver is a true focal point or more of a complementary piece.
A blended workload view that accounts for catches, designed touches, and any return-game involvement that shapes the overall profile.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | Receptions | 47 | #130/1110 | 88th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 626 | #137/1107 | 88th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 2 | #281/1111 | 75th pct | Scoringvs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 13.3 | #420/1106 | 62nd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Returns | Punt return yards | 150 | #34/224 | 85th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Usage | Pass share | 19.2% | #102/1137 | 91st pct | Air-game usagevs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 33 | #94/397 | 77th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 16 | #93/346 | 73rd pct | Metricvs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Carries | 6 | #76/407 | 82nd pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 5.5 | #150/393 | 62nd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 0 | #81/411 | 81st pct | Scoringvs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 75 | #47/1105 | 96th pct | Metricvs FBS WR |
| Returns | Punt return avg | 12.5 | #42/222 | 82nd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Returns | Punt returns | 12 | #53/237 | 78th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 13.2% | #90/1137 | 92nd pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 11.3% | #50/1137 | 96th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Role share | 10.9% | #67/1137 | 94th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 10.7% | #86/1137 | 93rd pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 9.9% | #69/1137 | 94th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 9.7% | #249/1137 | 78th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Rush share | 2.1% | #89/1137 | 92nd pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS WR |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 1 | #131/302 | 57th pct | Turnoversvs FBS WR |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 12 games
Home vs Road
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 4.0 | 46.4 | 11.2 | 0.1 |
| Road5g | 3.8 | 60.2 | 13.7 | 0.2 |
Win vs Loss
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins4g | 5.0 | 65.0 | 13.3 | 0.2 |
| Losses8g | 3.4 | 45.8 | 11.7 | 0.1 |
First half vs Second half
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 4.0 | 57.8 | 13.3 | 0.2 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 3.8 | 46.5 | 11.2 | 0.2 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort
63Solid starter
Elite: long catch (90th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · WR · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Omari KellyMichigan StateAnthony Evans IIIMississippi State· 84% simKyre DuplessisDelaware· 83% simCorey RuckerArkansas State· 83% sim
Long catch
Receptions
Rec yards
Rush yards
Yards / catch
Rec TDs
Rush TDs
Fumbles lost
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Slot Technician
Runs precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving.
WR
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Jordan Watkins’s 2023 season.
Jordan Watkins
83%match
NFL Rd 4
#2
Kyri Shoels
83%
#3
Ronnie Bell
All-Big TenNFL Rd 7
82%
#4
Josh Meredith
81%
#5
Victor Tucker
80%
Matches Jordan on
Total EPA (college ability)
TD rate
Reception volume
Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Kelvontay Dixon’s path through SMU.
Kelvontay Dixon
93%match
#2
Joshua Derry
91%
#3
Jacolby George
91%
#4
Nic Trujillo
90%
#5
Coleman Owen
All-MAC
90%
Matches Kelvontay on
Height
Weight
Recruiting rating
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Xavier White's senior season at Texas Tech (2023).
Xavier White
85%match
#2
Josh Meredith
84%
#3
Eric Rivers
All-Conference USA
80%
#4
John Paul Richardson
78%
#5
Dorian Singer
77%
Matches Xavier on
Yards / reception
TD rate
Weight
Differs from Xavier on
EPA / play (adj) (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Jonathan Smith
Pass share
49.7%
378 pass / 382 run
Plays / game
63.3
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
11.2%
303 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
2 coaches2022
Mel Tucker
Michigan State
2023
Mel Tucker
Michigan State
2025era →
Jonathan Smith
Michigan State
Coaching transition mid-career: Mel Tucker → Jonathan Smith. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownTrussville, AL
Height6'0"
Weight188 lb
Class4
PositionWR
Jersey1
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamMichigan State
ConferenceBig Ten
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
🥈
ALL-CONFERENCE · 1ST TEAM
All-Conf 1st team (2024)
All-Conference USA
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
2 all-conference honors
Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | All-Conference USA | all_conference | Middle Tennessee | Conference USA | RET |
| 2024 | All-Conference USA | all_conference | Middle Tennessee | Conference USA | WR |
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Middle Tennessee | WR4 | #5353 | #6133 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Conference USA |
| 2023 | Auburn | WR4 | #1913 | #2027 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | SEC |
| 2022 | Auburn | WR4 | #2207 | #2538 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | SEC |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Michigan State | Big Ten | WR | 4 | No. 1 | 6-0 | 188 lb | Trussville, AL |
| 2024 | Middle Tennessee | Conference USA | WR | 4 | No. 1 | 6-0 | 188 lb | Trussville, AL |
| 2023 | Auburn | SEC | WR | 4 | No. 1 | 6-0 | 188 lb | Trussville, AL |
| 2022 | Auburn | SEC | WR | 4 | No. 1 | 6-0 | 188 lb | Trussville, AL |