CFB Zeitgeist Score
32
Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by long run at the 62nd percentile.
Nolan Ray
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
289 RUSH YDS · 2 RUSH TD · 67 CARRIES
2026 Outlook
Returning to Maryland for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Running back · Maryland
Returning around him
- 13% of 2024 offensive production back (Heavy turnover)
- 1 Maryland player drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -1 net (15 in / 16 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Maryland · Last season: 4-8 · Talent rank #52 · 2026 recruiting class #25
RB · MARYLAND · BIG TEN
Nolan Ray
- 2
- #25
- 6-1 | 212 lb
- Southfield, MI
Heisman Heat
#337
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR06 · Starter
Starter. A locked-in starting role.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · rushing yards
2023–2025+4029%
Up 4029% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
Maryland
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 3-star | 0.8558 | No. 1238 recruit | HighSchool |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to —
Composite
0.8558
#1238 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Nolan Ray
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
—
Awaiting per-cohort signal
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- National · n=4
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Nolan Ray
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 12g
289Rush yards
67Carries
2Rush TDs
Per game
24.1Rush yards
6Carries
0Rush TDs
Projected (13g)
313.1Rush yards
73Carries
2Rush TDs
To hit 750-yard season (currently 289): needs 461/game over remaining 1.
To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 289): needs 711/game over remaining 1.
To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 289): needs 1,211/game over remaining 1.
To hit 10 rushing TDs (currently 2): needs 8/game over remaining 1.
To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 2): needs 13/game over remaining 1.
To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 2): needs 18/game over remaining 1.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Nolan Ray's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Maryland, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Backfield contributor against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
67 66th
YDS
289 64th
YPC
4.3 41st
TD
2 67th
Receiving
REC
11 65th
YDS
50 49th
YPR
4.5 20th
TD
0 70th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 12 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 39-7vs Florida Atlantic | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 0 | 11 | |
| Wk 2 | W 20-9vs Northern Illinois | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 0 | 10 | |
| Wk 3 | W 44-17vs Towson | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | 1 | 5 | |
| Wk 4 | W 27-10@ Wisconsin | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 | 6 | |
| Wk 6 | L 20-24vs Washington | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 | 8 | |
| Wk 7 | L 31-34vs Nebraska | 11 | 62 | 5.6 | 1 | 28 | |
| Wk 8 | L 17-20@ UCLA | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 | 3 | |
| Wk 10 | L 10-55vs Indiana | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 | 3 | |
| Wk 11 | L 20-35@ Rutgers | 5 | 77 | 15.4 | 0 | 53 | Season-high 77 yds |
| Wk 12 | L 6-24@ Illinois | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Wk 13 | L 20-45vs Michigan | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 | |
| Wk 14 | L 28-38@ Michigan State | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | |
| Total | 67 | 289 | 4.0 | 2 | 53 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2023Maryland8-5HC: Mike Locksley · Pass-leaning
2024Maryland4-8HC: Mike Locksley · Pass-leaning
2025Maryland4-8HC: Mike Locksley · Pass-leaning
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 289 | #268/735 | 64th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 2 | #247/739 | 67th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 4.3 | #435/735 | 41st pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 11 | #195/552 | 65th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 50 | #281/548 | 49th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.07 | #263/362 | 28th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 59 weighted playsvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 11.0% | #287/738 | 61st pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 67 | #252/739 | 66th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 53 | #147/733 | 80th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 9 | #425/540 | 21st pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 4.5 | #438/548 | 20th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 0 | #169/552 | 70th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 22.6% | #219/738 | 70th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 13.2% | #261/738 | 65th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 12.9% | #241/738 | 67th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 12.6% | #288/738 | 61st pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 6.7% | #365/738 | 51st pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 6.4% | #373/738 | 50th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 4.3% | #208/738 | 72nd pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 12 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 26.6 | 3.7 | 0.3 |
| Road5g | 20.6 | 4.4 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins4g | 27.2 | 3.2 | 0.2 |
| Losses8g | 22.5 | 4.3 | 0.1 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 31.3 | 3.8 | 0.3 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 16.8 | 4.1 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
32Below cohort
Concern: rush yards (23rd).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_rushing0.07Below (<p25) (n=178)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Nolan RayMarylandTae MeadowsTroy· 66% simChavon WrightNorthern Illinois· 63% simBill DavisLouisiana· 62% sim
Long run
Receptions
Rec yards
Carries
Rush TDs
Yards / carry
Rush yards
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Balanced Back
Plays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension.
RB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Terrance Shelton Jr.’s 2025 season.
Terrance Shelton Jr.
79%match
#2
Darvon Hubbard
79%
#3
Isaiah Augustave
76%
#4
Dylan Carson
70%
#5
Nolan Ray
73%
Matches Terrance on
Yards / carry
Receiving share
Rush TD rate
Differs from Terrance on
Height (higher)
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Joe Jackson's junior season at Kansas State (2025).
Joe Jackson
74%match
All-Big 12NFL Rd 5
#2
Darius Taylor
All-Big Ten
68%
#3
Bryson Washington
All-Big 12
67%
#4
Darvon Hubbard
67%
#5
Dylan Carson
62%
Matches Joe on
Total rush EPA (college ability)
Receiving share
Height
Differs from Joe on
Rush TD rate (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Mike Locksley
Pass share
61.9%
491 pass / 302 run
Plays / game
66.1
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
2.3%
383 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Pass-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025
1 coach2023
Mike Locksley
Maryland
2024
Mike Locksley
Maryland
2025
Mike Locksley
Maryland
Played his entire career under Mike Locksley.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownSouthfield, MI
Height6'1"
Weight212 lb
Class2
PositionRB
Jersey25
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamMaryland
ConferenceBig Ten
Joined2025
Career arc3 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.