CFB Zeitgeist Score
61
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by sacks at the 85th percentile.
Nic Mitchell
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
78 TACKLES · 2.5 SACKS
2026 Outlook
Returning to Mississippi State for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Linebacker · Mississippi State
Returning around him
- 42% of 2024 offensive production back (Moderate turnover)
- 2 Mississippi State players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -13 net (27 in / 40 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Mississippi State · Last season: 5-8 · Talent rank #24 · 2026 recruiting class #28
LB · MISSISSIPPI STATE · SEC
Nic Mitchell
- 4
- #40
- 6-2 | 230 lb
- Jacksonville, FL
Heisman Heat
#14400
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP LB AWARD
Butkus
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
Mississippi State
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3-star | 0.8522 | No. 1123 recruit | HighSchool |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to —
Composite
0.8522
#1123 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Nic Mitchell
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Nic Mitchell
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the defensive totals stand
Through 13g
78Tackles
5Tackles for loss
2.5Sacks
Per game
6Tackles
0.4Tackles for loss
0.2Sacks
Final
78Tackles
5Tackles for loss
2.5Sacks
Why this is a rare defensive case
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Nic Mitchell is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Mississippi State's defense, with 2.5 sacks, 5.0 tackles for loss, and 1 interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
DEF season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
High-disruption defender | High-volume tackler against FBS defenders.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Tackling & Disruption
TOT
78 97th
SOLO
17 73rd
TFL
5.0 89th
SACK
2.5 92nd
QBH
2 66th
Coverage & Takeaways
INT
1 65th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 13 games
| Wk | Opp | TKL | SOLO | TFL | SACK | INT | PD | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 34-17@ Southern Miss | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 2 | W 24-20vs Arizona State | 9 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 3 | W 63-0vs Alcorn State | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 4 | W 38-10vs Northern Illinois | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 5 | L 34-41vs Tennessee | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 6 | L 9-31@ Texas A&M | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 8 | L 21-23@ Florida | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 9 | L 38-45vs Texas | 7 | 3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 10 | W 38-35@ Arkansas | 10 | 3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | — | 0 | Season-high 10 tackles |
| Wk 11 | L 21-41vs Georgia | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 12 | L 27-49@ Missouri | 6 | 3 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wk 14 | L 19-38vs Ole Miss | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Bowl | L 29-43vs Wake Forest | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Total | 78 | 17 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1 | 0 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2021Mississippi State7-5HC: Mike Leach · Pass-heavy, fast tempo
2022Mississippi State9-4HC: Mike Leach · Pass-heavy
2023Mississippi State5-7HC: Greg Knox · Run-leaning, slow tempo
2025Mississippi State5-8HC: Jeff Lebby · Run-leaning
| Season | Team | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Mississippi State | 78 | 17 | 5.0 | 2.5 | -- | 1 | -- |
| 2023 | Mississippi State | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | -- | -- |
| 2022 | Mississippi State | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | -- | -- |
| 2021 | Mississippi State | 3 | -- | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | -- | -- |
| Career | 4 loaded seasons | 93 | 21 | 5.0 | 2.5 | -- | 1 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.
Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defense | Total tackles | 78 | #167/4942 | 97th pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | TFL | 5.0 | #553/4972 | 89th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Sacks | 2.5 | #393/4972 | 92nd pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Interceptions | 1 | #308/869 | 65th pct | Takeawaysvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | QB hurries | 2 | #647/1878 | 66th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Solo tackles | 17 | #1252/4584 | 73rd pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | INT return avg | 12.0 | #325/578 | 44th pct | Takeawaysvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | INT return yards | 12 | #382/578 | 34th pct | Takeawaysvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Fumbles recovered | 1 | #103/736 | 86th pct | Takeawaysvs FBS DEF |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 0 | #1/773 | 100th pct | Turnoversvs FBS DEF |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
The Butkus award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 13 games
Home vs Road
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home8g | 5.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Road5g | 6.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins5g | 6.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Losses8g | 5.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-77g | 5.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 7.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the LB cohort
61Solid starter
Elite: tackles (94th). Strength: sacks (85th). Concern: passes defended (17th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · LB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Nic MitchellMississippi StateMarcAnthony ParkerNavy· 85% simEthan WesloskiNorth Texas· 82% simMicah DaveyUTEP· 81% sim
Tackles
Sacks
Tackles for loss
QB hurries
Solo tackles
Forced fumbles
Interceptions
Passes defended
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Every-Down Linebacker
Leads the team in tackles and rarely leaves the field.
LB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Greg Penn III’s 2024 season.
Greg Penn III
88%match
#2
Brad Johnson
84%
#3
Darius McKenzie
84%
#4
Stephen Forester
84%
#5
Gavin Potter
83%
Matches Greg on
Tackle volume
TFL rate
Weight
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a graduate, his production profile tracks closest to Alphonzo Tuputala's graduate season at Washington (2024).
Alphonzo Tuputala
91%match
#2
Brandon George
87%
#3
Wayne Matthews III
All-Sun Belt
86%
#4
Stephen Dix Jr.
85%
#5
West Weeks
83%
Matches Alphonzo on
Class year
Tackle volume
TFL rate
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Jeff Lebby
Pass share
41.8%
390 pass / 543 run
Plays / game
71.8
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
12.7%
308 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2021–2025
3 coaches2021
Mike Leach
Mississippi State
2022
Mike Leach
Mississippi State
2023era →
Greg Knox
Mississippi State
2025era →
Jeff Lebby
Mississippi State
Played under 3 different head coaches: Mike Leach, Greg Knox, and Jeff Lebby. Multi-era developmental context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownJacksonville, FL
Height6'2"
Weight230 lb
Class4
PositionLB
Jersey40
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamMississippi State
ConferenceSEC
Joined2025
Career arc5 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Mississippi State | LB4 | #14400 | #14536 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | SEC |
| 2023 | Mississippi State | LB4 | #12132 | #12142 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | SEC |
| 2022 | Mississippi State | LB4 | #9680 | #9270 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | SEC |
| 2021 | Mississippi State | LB4 | #10799 | #10726 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | SEC |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Mississippi State | SEC | LB | 4 | No. 40 | 6-2 | 230 lb | Jacksonville, FL |
| 2024 | Mississippi State | SEC | LB | 4 | No. 40 | 6-2 | 230 lb | Jacksonville, FL |
| 2023 | Mississippi State | SEC | LB | 4 | No. 40 | 6-2 | 230 lb | Jacksonville, FL |
| 2022 | Mississippi State | SEC | LB | 4 | No. 40 | 6-2 | 230 lb | Jacksonville, FL |
| 2021 | Mississippi State | SEC | LB | 4 | No. 40 | 6-2 | 230 lb | Jacksonville, FL |