CFB Zeitgeist Score
21
Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by yards / catch at the 38th percentile.
Nathan Acevedo
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
190 REC YDS · 16 REC · 0 REC TD
2026 Outlook
Returning to San Diego State for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Wide receiver · San Diego State
Returning around him
- 80% of 2024 offensive production back (Strong continuity)
- 1 San Diego State player drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: +0 net (26 in / 26 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
San Diego State · Last season: 9-4 · Talent rank #86 · 2026 recruiting class #78
WR · SAN DIEGO STATE · MOUNTAIN WEST
Nathan Acevedo
- 3
- #13
- 5-10 | 165 lb
- San Diego, CA
Heisman Heat
#4201
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP WR AWARD
Biletnikoff
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR05 · Part-time starter
Part-time starter. Splitting first-team reps.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
San Diego State
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3-star | 0.8448 | No. 1405 recruit | HighSchool | Fresno State |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Fresno State -> San Diego State | 3-star | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to Fresno State
Composite
0.8448
#1405 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Nathan Acevedo
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
100
Grounded Optimism
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=2
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Nathan Acevedo
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the receiving totals stand
Through 9g
190Rec yards
16Receptions
0Rec TDs
Per game
21.1Rec yards
2Receptions
0Rec TDs
Projected (13g)
274.4Rec yards
23Receptions
0Rec TDs
To hit 700-yard receiver (currently 190): needs 127.5/game over remaining 4.
To hit 1,000-yard receiver (currently 190): needs 202.5/game over remaining 4.
To hit 60-catch season (currently 16): needs 11/game over remaining 4.
To hit 80-catch season (currently 16): needs 16/game over remaining 4.
To hit 8 receiving TDs (currently 0): needs 2/game over remaining 4.
To hit 10 receiving TDs (currently 0): needs 2.5/game over remaining 4.
Why the profile pops beyond receiving
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
The most interesting thing about Nathan Acevedo is that he shows up in multiple game states. He is a receiver first, but the profile also includes designed touches and return-game juice, which means his value is not limited to a conventional route tree.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
WR season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Receiving weapon against FBS receiving peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Receiving
REC
16 58th
YDS
190 57th
YPR
11.9 50th
TD
0 45th
Rushing
CAR
1 35th
YDS
-8 4th
YPC
-8.0 3rd
TD
0 81st
Returns
PR YDS
63 60th
PR AVG
31.5 98th
RET TD
1 89th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 9 games
| Wk | Opp | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 42-0vs Stony Brook | 2 | 32 | 16.0 | 0 | 17 | Season-high 61 yds |
| Wk 6 | W 45-24vs Colorado State | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 | |
| Wk 7 | W 44-10@ Nevada | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 | |
| Wk 9 | W 23-0@ Fresno State | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | 8 | |
| Wk 10 | W 24-7vs Wyoming | 1 | 26 | 26.0 | 0 | 26 | |
| Wk 11 | L 6-38@ Hawai'i | 3 | 41 | 13.7 | 0 | 26 | |
| Wk 13 | W 25-3vs San José State | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 | |
| Wk 14 | L 17-23@ New Mexico | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 | |
| Bowl | L 47-49vs North Texas | 4 | 61 | 15.3 | 0 | 42 | |
| Total | 16 | 190 | 11.0 | 0 | 42 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2025San Diego State9-4HC: Sean Lewis · Run-heavy
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | San Diego State | 16 | 190 | 11.9 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 1 loaded season | 16 | 190 | 11.9 | 0 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | San Diego State | 1 | -8 | -- | 63 | 1 |
| Career | 1 loaded season | 1 | -8 | -- | 63 | 1 |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
The player's share of a team's passing-game involvement. It is the fastest way to see whether the receiver is a true focal point or more of a complementary piece.
A blended workload view that accounts for catches, designed touches, and any return-game involvement that shapes the overall profile.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | Receptions | 16 | #465/1110 | 58th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 190 | #482/1107 | 57th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 0 | #615/1111 | 45th pct | Scoringvs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 11.9 | #556/1106 | 50th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Returns | Punt return yards | 63 | #91/224 | 60th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Usage | Pass share | 11.3% | #420/1137 | 63rd pct | Air-game usagevs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Carries | 1 | #264/407 | 35th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 0 | #81/411 | 81st pct | Scoringvs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | -8 | #384/397 | 4th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | -8.0 | #384/393 | 3rd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 42 | #407/1105 | 63rd pct | Metricvs FBS WR |
| Returns | Punt return avg | 31.5 | #5/222 | 98th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Returns | Punt returns | 2 | #156/237 | 35th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Returns | Punt return TD | 1 | #4/27 | 89th pct | Scoringvs FBS WR |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 7.0% | #239/1137 | 79th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 4.7% | #420/1137 | 63rd pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | Role share | 4.3% | #566/1137 | 50th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 3.6% | #764/1137 | 33rd pct | Money-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 3.5% | #867/1137 | 24th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 1.1% | #977/1137 | 14th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Rush share | 0.3% | #332/1137 | 71st pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS WR |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 9 games
Home vs Road
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home5g | 1.8 | 26.2 | 13.9 | 0.0 |
| Road4g | 1.8 | 14.8 | 7.4 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins6g | 1.3 | 13.7 | 10.7 | 0.0 |
| Losses3g | 2.7 | 36.0 | 11.7 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-74g | 2.2 | 25.8 | 9.8 | 0.0 |
| Weeks 8+5g | 1.4 | 17.4 | 11.9 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort
21Below cohort
Concern: rush yards (3rd).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · WR · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Nathan AcevedoSan Diego StateMichael Jackson IIIPurdue· 61% simChauncy CobbArkansas State· 57% simLewis BondBoston College· 53% sim
Rush TDs
Yards / catch
Long catch
Receptions
Rec yards
Rec TDs
Rush yards
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Possession Receiver
Reliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive.
WR
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Christian Forde’s 2021 season.
Christian Forde
76%match
#2
Myles Walker
71%
#3
Jacob Cowing
All-Conference USANFL Rd 4
58%
#4
Wayne Harris
66%
#5
Emmanuel Logan-Greene
65%
Matches Christian on
TD rate
Weight
Reception volume
Differs from Christian on
Class year (higher)
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Myles Walker's sophomore season at Akron (2025).
Myles Walker
75%match
#2
Stacy Sneed
68%
#3
Emmanuel Logan-Greene
67%
#4
Ben Ratzlaff
57%
#5
Nate Mccollum
59%
Matches Myles on
Total EPA (college ability)
Height
Differs from Myles on
Class year (lower)
Recruiting rating (higher)
EPA / play (adj) (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Sean Lewis
Pass share
35.3%
290 pass / 532 run
Plays / game
63.2
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
7.6%
224 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-heavy.
Coaching Lineage · 2025
1 coach2025
Sean Lewis
San Diego State
Played his entire career under Sean Lewis.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownSan Diego, CA
Height5'10"
Weight165 lb
Class3
PositionWR
Jersey13
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamSan Diego State
ConferenceMountain West
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Fresno State | WR3 | #4201 | #4098 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Mountain West |
| 2023 | Fresno State | WR3 | #4234 | #3949 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Mountain West |
| 2022 | Fresno State | WR3 | #2813 | #2472 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Mountain West |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | San Diego State | Mountain West | WR | 3 | No. 13 | 5-10 | 165 lb | San Diego, CA |
| 2024 | Fresno State | Mountain West | WR | 3 | No. 13 | 5-10 | 165 lb | San Diego, CA |
| 2023 | Fresno State | Mountain West | WR | 3 | No. 13 | 5-10 | 165 lb | San Diego, CA |
| 2022 | Fresno State | Mountain West | WR | 3 | No. 13 | 5-10 | 165 lb | San Diego, CA |