CFB Zeitgeist Score
71
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by rush yards at the 87th percentile.
Nate Frazier
The Hope Economyas of 2026-06-22
947 rushing yards last season, and Georgia fans still see the ceiling as the story.
947RUSH YDS6RUSH TD173CARRIES
PERCEPTION ABOVE TAPE · PCTL GAP
-58
perception vs production percentile · 2025
Georgia fans overwhelmingly treat Frazier as a long-term investment, convinced that what he can become in 2026 and beyond outpaces anything his 2025 numbers — 947 yards, six touchdowns on 173 carries — have already shown.
medium confidence2 sources
Minority viewA vocal minority argues that 4-star freshman Chauncey Bowens will render that patience irrelevant before the 2026 season is half over.
All ceiling, for now — a 89th-percentile bet riding on a 31st-percentile résumé. The hope is the whole position.
Read the story so far
AI narrative · updated 2026-06-22 · compiled from CFB Zeitgeist data
2026 Outlook
Returning to Georgia for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Running back · Georgia
Returning around him
- 37% of 2024 offensive production back (Moderate turnover)
- 8 Georgia players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -7 net (9 in / 16 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Georgia · Last season: 12-2 (AP #2) · Talent rank #1 · 2026 recruiting class #2
RB · GEORGIA · SEC
Nate Frazier
- 2
- #3
- 5-10 | 210 lb
- Compton, CA
Heisman Heat
#88
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career arc · Season-by-season Standing
2 seasons on the ladder
2024
Georgia · RB
—
★
2025
Georgia · RB
R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team
Recognized
Development Trajectory · rushing yards
2024–2025+41%
Up 41% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
Georgia
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 4-star | 0.9777 | No. 49 recruit | HighSchool | Georgia |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in rushing yards (947).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
NIL Valuation · On3
$978K
On3 ranking · Jun 2026
Whisper Rate
$750K
per-deal market estimate
Recruit stars
★★★★☆
to Georgia
Composite
0.9777
#49 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Nate Frazier
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
65
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=24
- National · n=4
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Nate Frazier
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Yards per carry
5.5
yds
P4 + Notre Dame RBs, min 80 carries
National rank #19 of 69
Percentile vs P4 + Notre Dame RBs, min 80 carries 74th
Why it matters
#19 of 69 P4 + Notre Dame RBs at 5.5 yards per carry (173 carries).
Vs cohort
This player 5.5 (74th)
HIGH · n=173 cohort 69
- Also strong
- Rushing WEPA per carry#46 / 66
- Rushing yards (total)#18 / 69
Signature Moment
Week 11 at Mississippi State — 181 ypc
Result W 41-21
The week the volume broke through — put up 181 yds at Mississippi State.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 14g
947Rush yards
173Carries
6Rush TDs
Per game
67.6Rush yards
12Carries
0Rush TDs
Final
947Rush yards
173Carries
6Rush TDs
✓ Hit 750-yard season · finished with 947.
Why the honors trail matters
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
The useful clue on this card is not just the Heisman rank, but the broader honors spine. Nate Frazier already has 1 loaded recognition item, which helps distinguish a player who is merely productive from one who is already earning selector-level validation.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Workhorse | Passing-game back against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
173 94th
YDS
947 94th
YPC
5.5 74th
TD
6 89th
Receiving
REC
16 77th
YDS
116 74th
YPR
7.3 56th
TD
1 89th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 14 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 45-7vs Marshall | 11 | 47 | 4.3 | 0 | 12 | |
| Wk 2 | W 28-6vs Austin Peay | 14 | 69 | 4.9 | 2 | 9 | |
| Wk 3 | W 44-41@ Tennessee | 14 | 73 | 5.2 | 0 | 21 | |
| Wk 5 | L 21-24vs Alabama | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 | 24 | |
| Wk 6 | W 35-14vs Kentucky | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 0 | 12 | |
| Wk 7 | W 20-10@ Auburn | 10 | 24 | 2.4 | 0 | 5 | |
| Wk 8 | W 43-35vs Ole Miss | 17 | 72 | 4.2 | 0 | 8 | |
| Wk 10 | W 24-20@ Florida | 12 | 45 | 3.8 | 0 | 6 | |
| Wk 11 | W 41-21@ Mississippi State | 12 | 181 | 15.1 | 1 | 59 | Season-high 181 yds |
| Wk 12 | W 35-10vs Texas | 16 | 72 | 4.5 | 0 | 21 | |
| Wk 13 | W 35-3vs Charlotte | 12 | 54 | 4.5 | 2 | 12 | |
| Wk 14 | W 16-9@ Georgia Tech | 16 | 108 | 6.8 | 0 | 22 | |
| Wk 15 | W 28-7@ Alabama | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 1 | 14 | |
| Bowl | L 34-39vs Ole Miss | 15 | 86 | 5.7 | 0 | 16 | |
| Total | 173 | 947 | 5.6 | 6 | 59 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2024Georgia11-3HC: Kirby Smart · Pass-leaning
2025Georgia12-2HC: Kirby Smart · Run-leaning
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 947 | #46/735 | 94th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 6 | #83/739 | 89th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 5.5 | #192/735 | 74th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 16 | #127/552 | 77th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 116 | #142/548 | 74th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.09 | #226/362 | 38th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 156 weighted playsvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 18.7% | #107/738 | 86th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 173 | #46/739 | 94th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 59 | #108/733 | 85th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 24 | #174/540 | 68th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 7.3 | #241/548 | 56th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 1 | #60/552 | 89th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 30.1% | #121/738 | 84th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 24.3% | #92/738 | 88th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 21.4% | #105/738 | 86th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 20.5% | #87/738 | 88th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 12.1% | #130/738 | 83rd pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 4.4% | #199/738 | 73rd pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 2.7% | #563/738 | 24th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 2 | #205/256 | 20th pct | Turnoversvs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
ALL-CONF HM
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
ALL-CONF HM · Rung 9 of 16
Why he’s here
All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started.
What moves him up
A best-at-position run lifts to 1st team.
What moves him down
A back-end conference finish drops out of the honor list.
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 14 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home8g | 58.0 | 5.1 | 0.5 |
| Road6g | 80.5 | 6.2 | 0.3 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins12g | 69.2 | 5.4 | 0.5 |
| Losses2g | 58.0 | 6.6 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-77g | 51.9 | 5.0 | 0.3 |
| Weeks 8+7g | 83.4 | 6.1 | 0.6 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
71Solid starter
Elite: rush yards (86th). Strength: carries (86th). Concern: fumbles lost (13th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_rushing0.09Low (p25–p50) (n=178)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Nate FrazierGeorgiaJevon JacksonUAB· 94% simJevyon DuckerTemple· 91% simJeremiah CobbAuburn· 88% sim
Rush yards
Carries
Rush TDs
Long run
Yards / carry
Receptions
Rec yards
Fumbles lost
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Balanced Back
Plays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension.
RB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Owen Allen’s 2025 season.
Owen Allen
80%match
#2
Jase McClellan
All-SECNFL Rd 6
78%
#3
Rueben Owens II
78%
#4
Kaytron Allen
All-Big TenNFL Rd 6
75%
#5
Corey Kiner
75%
Matches Owen on
Yards / carry
Rush TD rate
Weight
Differs from Owen on
Class year (lower)
Height (lower)
Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Julius Loughridge’s path through Fordham.
Julius Loughridge
99%match
#2
Corey Taylor II
99%
#3
Cooper Wallace
98%
#4
CJ Marable
96%
#5
Camryn Edwards
92%
Matches Julius on
Yards per carry
As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Owen Allen's sophomore season at Air Force (2025).
Owen Allen
82%match
#2
Zonovan Knight
1st-team All-American
73%
#3
Nathaniel Peat
72%
#4
Camryn Edwards
71%
#5
Daelen Alexander
68%
Matches Owen on
Yards / carry
Rush TD rate
Weight
Differs from Owen on
Class year (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Kirby Smart
Pass share
42.5%
417 pass / 565 run
Plays / game
70.1
14 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
6.2%
290 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2024–2025
1 coach2024
Kirby Smart
Georgia
2025
Kirby Smart
Georgia
Played his entire career under Kirby Smart.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownCompton, CA
Height5'10"
Weight210 lb
Class2
PositionRB
Jersey3
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamGeorgia
ConferenceSEC
Joined2025
Career arc2 season(s)
Trophy Case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
🎖
ALL-CONFERENCE
All-Conf mention (2025)
All-SEC
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
1 all-conference honor
Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | All-SEC | all_conference | Georgia | SEC | RB |
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Georgia | RB2 | #88 | #82 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | SEC |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.