CFB Zeitgeist Score
75
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by rec yards at the 89th percentile.
Mike Matthews
On Trialas of 2026-06-22
Mike Matthews is on trial in Tennessee's fan jury — the eye test against the résumé.
813REC YDS53REC4REC TD
5★ · NATIONAL RECRUIT
No.24
recruiting national rank
Tennessee fans can't agree whether the tape backs the reputation.
medium confidence3 sources
Read the story so far
AI narrative · updated 2026-06-22 · compiled from CFB Zeitgeist data
2026 Outlook
Returning to Tennessee for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Wide receiver · Tennessee
Returning around him
- 22% of 2024 offensive production back (Heavy turnover)
- 5 Tennessee players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -8 net (21 in / 29 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Tennessee · Last season: 8-5 (AP #18) · Talent rank #16 · 2026 recruiting class #11
WR · TENNESSEE · SEC
Mike Matthews
- 2
- #4
- 6-1 | 200 lb
- Lilburn, GA
Heisman Heat
#548
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP WR AWARD
Biletnikoff
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · receiving yards
2024–2025+803%
Up 803% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
Tennessee
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 5-star | 0.9882 | No. 24 recruit | HighSchool | Tennessee |
| 2023 | 4-star | 0.9405 | No. 136 recruit | HighSchool | Tennessee |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★★★
to Tennessee
Composite
0.9882
#24 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Mike Matthews
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
62
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=16
- National · n=6
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Mike Matthews
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Yards per reception
15.3
yds
All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions
National rank #96 of 531
Percentile vs All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions 82nd
Why it matters
#96 of 531 All FBS WRs at 15.3 yards per reception (53 catches).
Vs cohort
This player 15.3 (82th)
HIGH · n=53 cohort 531
- Also strong
- Receiving yards (total)#60 / 531
- Receiving TDs#161 / 531
Signature Moment
Week 5 at Mississippi State — 118 ypr
Result W 41-34
The week the volume broke through — put up 118 yds at Mississippi State.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the receiving totals stand
Through 13g
813Rec yards
53Receptions
4Rec TDs
Per game
62.5Rec yards
4Receptions
0Rec TDs
Final
813Rec yards
53Receptions
4Rec TDs
✓ Hit 700-yard receiver · finished with 813.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Mike Matthews's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Tennessee, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
WR season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Target magnet against FBS receiving peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Receiving
REC
53 91st
YDS
813 94th
YPR
15.3 78th
TD
4 86th
Rushing
CAR
2 53rd
YDS
32 76th
YPC
16.0 96th
TD
0 81st
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 13 games
| Wk | Opp | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 45-26vs Syracuse | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 0 | 16 | |
| Wk 2 | W 72-17vs East Tennessee State | 6 | 111 | 18.5 | 1 | 53 | |
| Wk 3 | L 41-44vs Georgia | 5 | 59 | 11.8 | 0 | 21 | |
| Wk 4 | W 56-24vs UAB | 3 | 53 | 17.7 | 1 | 39 | |
| Wk 5 | W 41-34@ Mississippi State | 6 | 118 | 19.7 | 0 | 39 | Season-high 118 yds |
| Wk 7 | W 34-31vs Arkansas | 3 | 46 | 15.3 | 0 | 27 | |
| Wk 8 | L 20-37@ Alabama | 4 | 39 | 9.8 | 0 | 18 | |
| Wk 9 | W 56-34@ Kentucky | 6 | 107 | 17.8 | 1 | 62 | |
| Wk 10 | L 27-33vs Oklahoma | 3 | 76 | 25.3 | 1 | 37 | |
| Wk 12 | W 42-9vs New Mexico State | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 | 19 | |
| Wk 13 | W 31-11@ Florida | 3 | 45 | 15.0 | 0 | 21 | |
| Wk 14 | L 24-45vs Vanderbilt | 6 | 58 | 9.7 | 0 | 18 | |
| Bowl | L 28-30@ Illinois | 3 | 43 | 14.3 | 0 | 17 | |
| Total | 53 | 813 | 15.3 | 4 | 62 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2024Tennessee10-3HC: Josh Heupel · Run-heavy, fast tempo
2025Tennessee8-5HC: Josh Heupel · Balanced
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
The player's share of a team's passing-game involvement. It is the fastest way to see whether the receiver is a true focal point or more of a complementary piece.
A blended workload view that accounts for catches, designed touches, and any return-game involvement that shapes the overall profile.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | Receptions | 53 | #101/1110 | 91st pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 813 | #63/1107 | 94th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 4 | #152/1111 | 86th pct | Scoringvs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 15.3 | #248/1106 | 78th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Pass share | 15.6% | #217/1137 | 81st pct | Air-game usagevs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 32 | #98/397 | 76th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 20 | #71/346 | 80th pct | Metricvs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 16.0 | #18/393 | 96th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Carries | 2 | #194/407 | 53rd pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 0 | #81/411 | 81st pct | Scoringvs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 62 | #154/1105 | 86th pct | Metricvs FBS WR |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 8.6% | #146/1137 | 87th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 8.2% | #136/1137 | 88th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | Role share | 7.7% | #230/1137 | 80th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 7.1% | #299/1137 | 74th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 6.9% | #464/1137 | 59th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 6.4% | #540/1137 | 53rd pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | Rush share | 0.5% | #284/1137 | 75th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS WR |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 13 games
Home vs Road
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home8g | 3.9 | 57.6 | 15.3 | 0.4 |
| Road5g | 4.4 | 70.4 | 15.3 | 0.2 |
Win vs Loss
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins8g | 4.0 | 67.2 | 16.0 | 0.4 |
| Losses5g | 4.2 | 55.0 | 14.2 | 0.2 |
First half vs Second half
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-77g | 4.0 | 65.6 | 16.0 | 0.3 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 4.2 | 59.0 | 14.5 | 0.3 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort
75Solid starter
Elite: rec yards (88th). Strength: receptions (81st).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · WR · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Mike MatthewsTennesseeNik McMillanBuffalo· 91% simKyre DuplessisDelaware· 90% simCorey RuckerArkansas State· 89% sim
Rec yards
Receptions
Yards / catch
Long catch
Rush yards
Rec TDs
Rush TDs
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Slot Technician
Runs precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving.
WR
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Javon Baker’s 2022 season.
Javon Baker
76%match
NFL Rd 4
#2
Gunner Romney
70%
#3
Moose Muhammad III
75%
#4
Jeshaun Jones
75%
#5
Tim Jones
All-Conference USA
69%
Matches Javon on
Total EPA (college ability)
Yards / reception
Differs from Javon on
Recruiting rating (higher)
Class year (lower)
EPA / play (adj) (higher)
Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Jalen Smith’s path through Minnesota.
Jalen Smith
96%match
#2
Joshua Derry
95%
#3
Dallas Dixon
All-MAC
93%
#4
Dillon Stoner
93%
#5
Antwane Wells Jr.
All-SEC
92%
Matches Jalen on
Height
Yards per reception
Weight
As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Ryan Williams's sophomore season at Alabama (2025).
Ryan Williams
78%match
#2
Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding
76%
#3
Terrell Anderson
74%
#4
T.J. Moore
73%
#5
Josh Ali
72%
Matches Ryan on
Total EPA (college ability)
Yards / reception
Reception volume
Differs from Ryan on
Weight (higher)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Josh Heupel
Pass share
47.3%
437 pass / 486 run
Plays / game
71.0
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
5.4%
334 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2024–2025
1 coach2024
Josh Heupel
Tennessee
2025
Josh Heupel
Tennessee
Played his entire career under Josh Heupel.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownLilburn, GA
Height6'1"
Weight200 lb
Class2
PositionWR
Jersey4
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamTennessee
ConferenceSEC
Joined2025
Career arc2 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Tennessee | WR2 | #548 | #462 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | SEC |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.