CFB Zeitgeist Score
44
Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by interceptions at the 92nd percentile.
Michael Van Buren Jr.
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
1,010 PASS YDS · 8 PASS TD · 129 RUSH YDS
Where He Ended Up · Transfer
Transferred to South Florida
2025LSU
2026South Florida
QB · LSU · SEC
Michael Van Buren Jr.
- 2
- #11
- 6-0 | 190 lb
- Bowie, MD
Heisman Heat
#1551
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP QB AWARD
Davey O'Brien
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
LSU
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 4-star | 0.9148 | No. 239 recruit | HighSchool | Mississippi State |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | LSU -> South Florida | 3-star | 0.8600 | Immediate |
| 2025 | Mississippi State -> LSU | 3-star | 0.8900 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★★☆
to Mississippi State
Composite
0.9148
#239 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Michael Van Buren Jr.
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
53
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=18
- Rivals · n=2
- National · n=10
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Michael Van Buren Jr.
Only 2 rival mention(s) — below the 4-mention floor for a defensible read.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
TD : INT ratio
4.0
ratio
P4 + Notre Dame QBs, min 150 attempts
National rank #11 of 72
Percentile vs P4 + Notre Dame QBs, min 150 attempts 86th
Why it matters
#11 of 72 P4 + Notre Dame QBs at 4.0 TDs per INT (151 attempts).
Vs cohort
This player 4.0 (86th)
MODERATE · n=151 cohort 72
- Also strong
- Completion %#46 / 72
- Yards per attempt#62 / 72
- ESPN QBR (season average)#55 / 92
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the passing totals stand
Through 7g
1,010Pass yards
8Pass TDs
2INT
Per game
144.3Pass yards
1Pass TDs
0INT
Projected (13g)
1,876Pass yards
15Pass TDs
4INT
To hit 3,000-yard season (currently 1,010): needs 331.7/game over remaining 6.
To hit 4,000-yard season (currently 1,010): needs 498.3/game over remaining 6.
To hit 25 passing TDs (currently 8): needs 2.8/game over remaining 6.
To hit 30 passing TDs (currently 8): needs 3.7/game over remaining 6.
To hit 35 passing TDs (currently 8): needs 4.5/game over remaining 6.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Michael Van Buren Jr.'s story is about how role and output meet each other. For LSU, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
QB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Steady volume against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Passing Efficiency
CMP
94 63rd
ATT
151 65th
CMP%
62.3% 55th
Y/A
6.7 45th
Passing Production
YDS
1,010 62nd
TD
8 68th
INT
2 52nd
Rushing
CAR
48 68th
YDS
129 72nd
YPC
2.7 48th
TD
1 63rd
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 7 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 4 | W 56-10vs SE Louisiana | 10/12 | 122 | 1 | 0 | 10.2 | 82.9 | |
| Wk 9 | L 25-49vs Texas A&M | 3/4 | 50 | 1 | 0 | 12.5 | 97.8 | |
| Wk 11 | L 9-20@ Alabama | 5/11 | 52 | 0 | 0 | 4.7 | 49.0 | |
| Wk 12 | W 23-22vs Arkansas | 21/31 | 221 | 1 | 0 | 7.1 | 56.2 | |
| Wk 13 | W 13-10vs Western Kentucky | 25/42 | 202 | 1 | 1 | 4.8 | 12.3 | |
| Wk 14 | L 13-17@ Oklahoma | 14/25 | 96 | 1 | 1 | 3.8 | 31.1 | |
| Bowl | L 35-38@ Houston | 16/26 | 267 | 3 | 0 | 10.3 | 86.9 | |
| Total | 94/151 | 1010 | 8 | 2 | 7.6 | 59.5 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2025LSU7-6HC: Brian Kelly · Balanced, slow tempo
| Season | Team | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | LSU | 94 | 151 | 62.3% | 1,010 | 6.7 | 8 | 2 | 133.3 | -- | -- |
| Career | 1 loaded season | 94 | 151 | 62.3% | 1,010 | 6.7 | 8 | 2 | 133.3 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | LSU | 48 | 129 | 2.7 | 1 | -- |
| Career | 1 loaded season | 48 | 129 | 2.7 | 1 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.
How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Passing yards | 1,010 | #145/382 | 62nd pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Pass TD | 8 | #130/407 | 68th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completions | 94 | #142/383 | 63rd pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completion % | 62.3% | #174/383 | 55th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Yards / attempt | 6.7 | #210/382 | 45th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 129 | #117/408 | 72nd pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Value | Passing WEPA | +0.05 | #197/200 | 2nd pct | Opponent-adjusted passing value | 65 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Role share | 17.1% | #225/428 | 48th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Attempts | 151 | #143/407 | 65th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Interceptions | 2 | #195/407 | 52nd pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Carries | 48 | #131/408 | 68th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 35 | #90/391 | 77th pct | Metricvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 2.7 | #213/407 | 48th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 1 | #151/408 | 63rd pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Pass share | 28.1% | #224/428 | 48th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 23.0% | #230/428 | 46th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 18.8% | #243/428 | 43rd pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 16.2% | #219/428 | 49th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 15.7% | #231/428 | 46th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 13.8% | #230/428 | 46th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Rush share | 3.6% | #311/428 | 28th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 1 | #69/258 | 74th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 7 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home4g | 149 | 1.0 | 8.7 | 0.2 |
| Road3g | 138 | 1.3 | 6.3 | 0.3 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins3g | 182 | 1.0 | 7.4 | 0.3 |
| Losses4g | 116 | 1.2 | 7.8 | 0.2 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-72g | 194 | 2.0 | 10.2 | 0.0 |
| Weeks 8+5g | 124 | 0.8 | 6.6 | 0.4 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
44Mid-pack
Elite: interceptions (92nd). Concern: pass yards (21st).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · QB · 2024
Percentile Card
Concerns: EPA / dropback.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_passing0.05Below (<p25) (n=94)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Michael Van Buren Jr.LSUNick VattiatoMiddle Tennessee· 72% simCade KlubnikClemson· 67% simAvery JohnsonKansas State· 66% sim
Interceptions
Fumbles lost
Rush yards
Completion %
Yards / att
Pass TDs
Rush TDs
Pass yards
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Pocket Passer
Balanced passer who operates within the system. Profile sits near league average across dimensions.
QB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Brady McBride’s 2020 season.
Brady McBride
67%match
#2
Jack Abraham
All-Conference USA
52%
#3
Shane Buechele
50%
#4
CJ Ogbonna
44%
#5
Chance Lovertich
41%
Matches Brady on
Yards / attempt
TD rate
Differs from Brady on
INT rate (lower)
Weight (lower)
Rush yards / carry (higher)
Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Dennis Grosel’s path through Boston College.
Dennis Grosel
84%match
#2
Jacolby Criswell
83%
#3
Zach Smith
82%
#4
Logan Bonner
82%
#5
Chris Reynolds
82%
Matches Dennis on
Yards per attempt
Completion %
Height
As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Jordan Yates's sophomore season at Georgia Tech (2021).
Jordan Yates
39%match
#2
Anthony Colandrea
All-Mountain West
30%
#3
Jackson Arnold
27%
#4
Noah Vedral
26%
#5
Gabarri Johnson
23%
Matches Jordan on
Yards / attempt
Height
Differs from Jordan on
EPA / dropback (adj) (lower)
TD rate (higher)
Total pass EPA (college ability) (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Brian Kelly
Pass share
55.0%
443 pass / 363 run
Plays / game
62.0
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
6.8%
365 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced, slow tempo.
Coaching Lineage · 2025
1 coach2025
Brian Kelly
LSU
Played his entire career under Brian Kelly.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownBowie, MD
Height6'0"
Weight190 lb
Class2
PositionQB
Jersey11
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamLSU
ConferenceSEC
Joined2025
Career arc2 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Mississippi State | QB2 | #1551 | #1944 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | SEC |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | LSU | SEC | QB | 2 | No. 11 | 6-0 | 190 lb | Bowie, MD |
| 2024 | Mississippi State | SEC | QB | 2 | No. 11 | 6-0 | 190 lb | Bowie, MD |