CFB Zeitgeist RB Score
Awaiting
Micah Kelly
Limited signal — not enough coverage for a story yet.
RB · TOLEDO · MID-AMERICAN
Micah Kelly
- 3
- #3
- 5-9 | 203 lb
- Pascagoula, MS
Heisman Heat
#1759
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 0 · Not on teamR01 · Scout team / redshirt
Scout team / redshirt. Developing behind the depth chart.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · rushing yards
2021–2023-96%
Sharp dropoff (-96%) — career inflection point.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
Toledo
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 3-star | 0.8622 | No. 902 recruit | HighSchool | Toledo |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Toledo -> Samford | 3-star | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2023 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 19Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to Toledo
Composite
0.8622
#902 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Micah Kelly
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Micah Kelly
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Scenario Explorer
Available for players with a qualifying signature metric (passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, sacks, etc.). The slider projects how a season finishes if the current pace holds.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Micah Kelly's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Toledo, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2023 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2023 season snapshot | final
2023 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Backfield contributor against FBS RB peers.
2023 Season · Final
2023 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
5 19th
YDS
12 13th
YPC
2.4 9th
TD
0 40th
Receiving
REC
1 16th
YDS
5 10th
YPR
5.0 26th
TD
0 70th
Game Log
Week-by-week box
No per-game rows for this season yet — the table fills in as box scores arrive.
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2021Toledo7-5HC: Jason Candle · Run-leaning
2022Toledo9-5HC: Jason Candle · Run-leaning
2023Toledo11-3HC: Jason Candle · Run-leaning
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 12 | #643/735 | 13th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 0 | #447/739 | 40th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 2.4 | #672/735 | 9th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 1 | #467/552 | 16th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 5 | #495/548 | 10th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.25 | #23/362 | 94th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 53 weighted playsvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 7.5% | #403/738 | 46th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 7 | #632/733 | 14th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 5 | #602/739 | 19th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 5 | #482/540 | 11th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 5.0 | #406/548 | 26th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 0 | #169/552 | 70th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 13.9% | #382/738 | 48th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 9.1% | #381/738 | 49th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 8.9% | #384/738 | 48th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 7.6% | #438/738 | 41st pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 5.8% | #410/738 | 45th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 4.9% | #456/738 | 38th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 1.3% | #473/738 | 36th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits
Per-game splits
Splits fill in once box scores from at least three games land for this season.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2023
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Jason Candle
Pass share
45.9%
397 pass / 467 run
Plays / game
66.5
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
4.5%
290 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2021–2023
1 coach2021
Jason Candle
Toledo
2022
Jason Candle
Toledo
2023
Jason Candle
Toledo
Played his entire career under Jason Candle.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownPascagoula, MS
Height5'9"
Weight203 lb
Class3
PositionRB
Jersey3
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamToledo
ConferenceMid-American
Joined2023
Career arc3 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.