CFB Zeitgeist Score
30
Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by interceptions at the 99th percentile.
Max Johnson
The Long Memoryas of 2026-06-22
Max Johnson arrives at North Carolina with a new fit to prove and an old chapter behind him.
437PASS YDS2PASS TD38RUSH YDS
PASSING VALUE · WEPA
+0.21
via your WEPA model · 2025 · 88 plays
Opposing fanbases keep circling back to him — the fixation says plenty.
low confidence1 source
Minority viewA vocal minority sees it the other way.
Read the story so far
AI narrative · updated 2026-06-22 · compiled from CFB Zeitgeist data
Where He Ended Up · Transfer
Transferred to Georgia Southern
2025North Carolina
2026Georgia Southern
QB · NORTH CAROLINA · ACC
Max Johnson
- 4
- #14
- 6-5 | 225 lb
- Watkinsville, GA
Heisman Heat
#915
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP QB AWARD
Davey O'Brien
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · passing yards
2021–2025-84%
Sharp dropoff (-84%) — career inflection point.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
3 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Heisman futures · live sportsbook odds
#29 in market ▼ from #23 · 5 books
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 4-star | 0.9091 | No. 256 recruit | HighSchool | LSU |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | North Carolina -> Georgia Southern | 3-star | Immediate |
| 2024 | Texas A&M -> North Carolina | 3-star | 0.8700 | Immediate |
| 2022 | LSU -> Texas A&M | 4-star | 0.9200 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★★☆
to LSU
Composite
0.9091
#256 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Max Johnson
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
50
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=3
- National · n=4
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Max Johnson
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
ESPN QBR (season average)
63.3
QBR
P4 + Notre Dame QBs, min 2 games
National rank #43 of 92
Percentile vs P4 + Notre Dame QBs, min 2 games 54th
Why it matters
#43 of 92 P4 + Notre Dame QBs by ESPN QBR — 63.3 across 4 games.
Vs cohort
This player 63.3 (54th)
HIGH · n=4 cohort 92
- Also strong
- Third-down snap share#82 / 93
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the passing totals stand
Through 4g
437Pass yards
2Pass TDs
0INT
Per game
109.2Pass yards
0Pass TDs
0INT
Projected (13g)
1,420Pass yards
6Pass TDs
0INT
To hit 3,000-yard season (currently 437): needs 284.8/game over remaining 9.
To hit 4,000-yard season (currently 437): needs 395.9/game over remaining 9.
To hit 25 passing TDs (currently 2): needs 2.6/game over remaining 9.
To hit 30 passing TDs (currently 2): needs 3.1/game over remaining 9.
To hit 35 passing TDs (currently 2): needs 3.7/game over remaining 9.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Max Johnson's story is about how role and output meet each other. For North Carolina, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
QB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Balanced quarterback against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Passing Efficiency
CMP
54 56th
ATT
87 57th
CMP%
62.1% 54th
Y/A
5.0 19th
Passing Production
YDS
437 52nd
TD
2 52nd
INT
0 100th
Rushing
CAR
9 35th
YDS
38 50th
YPC
4.2 68th
TD
0 44th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 4 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 14-48vs TCU | 9/11 | 103 | 1 | 0 | 9.4 | 95.8 | |
| Wk 4 | L 9-34@ UCF | 11/19 | 67 | 1 | 0 | 3.5 | 80.7 | |
| Wk 6 | L 10-38vs Clemson | 26/42 | 213 | 0 | 0 | 5.1 | 29.7 | Season-high 213 yds |
| Wk 14 | L 19-42@ NC State | 8/15 | 54 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 47.0 | |
| Total | 54/87 | 437 | 2 | 0 | 5.4 | 63.3 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2021LSU6-6HC: Ed Orgeron · Balanced
2022Texas A&M5-7HC: Jimbo Fisher · Balanced
2023Texas A&M7-6HC: Elijah Robinson · Balanced
2025North Carolina4-8HC: Bill Belichick · Balanced, slow tempo
| Season | Team | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | North Carolina | 54 | 87 | 62.1% | 437 | 5.0 | 2 | 0 | 111.8 | -- | -- |
| 2023 | Texas A&M | 118 | 190 | 62.1% | 1,452 | 7.6 | 9 | 5 | 136.7 | -- | -- |
| 2022 | Texas A&M | 43 | 71 | 60.6% | 517 | 7.3 | 3 | 0 | 135.7 | -- | -- |
| 2021 | LSU | 225 | 373 | 60.3% | 2,815 | 7.5 | 27 | 6 | 144.4 | -- | -- |
| Career | 4 loaded seasons | 440 | 721 | 61.0% | 5,221 | 7.2 | 41 | 11 | 137.6 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | North Carolina | 9 | 38 | 4.2 | 0 | -- |
| 2023 | Texas A&M | 51 | 27 | 0.5 | 2 | -- |
| 2022 | Texas A&M | 29 | 58 | 2.0 | 0 | -- |
| 2021 | LSU | 78 | -41 | -0.5 | 1 | -- |
| Career | 4 loaded seasons | 167 | 82 | 0.5 | 3 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.
How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Passing yards | 437 | #185/382 | 52nd pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Pass TD | 2 | #198/407 | 52nd pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completions | 54 | #169/383 | 56th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completion % | 62.1% | #179/383 | 54th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Yards / attempt | 5.0 | #312/382 | 19th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 38 | #203/408 | 50th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Value | Passing WEPA | +0.21 | #139/200 | 31st pct | Opponent-adjusted passing value | 88 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Role share | 41.2% | #142/428 | 67th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Attempts | 87 | #175/407 | 57th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Interceptions | 0 | #1/407 | 100th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 18 | #192/391 | 51st pct | Metricvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Carries | 9 | #267/408 | 35th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 4.2 | #132/407 | 68th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 0 | #230/408 | 44th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Pass share | 62.3% | #164/428 | 62nd pct | Air-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 50.7% | #145/428 | 66th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 40.6% | #104/428 | 76th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 40.0% | #180/428 | 58th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 39.7% | #142/428 | 67th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 36.9% | #129/428 | 70th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Rush share | 8.1% | #195/428 | 55th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 1 | #69/258 | 74th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 4 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home2g | 158 | 0.5 | 7.2 | 0.0 |
| Road2g | 60.5 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Losses4g | 109 | 0.5 | 5.4 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-73g | 128 | 0.7 | 6.0 | 0.0 |
| Weeks 8+1g | 54.0 | 0.0 | 3.6 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
30Below cohort
Elite: interceptions (99th). Concern: pass yards (2nd).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Pass Profile · Completion depth (PBP)
Where the throws are landing
Short
0–9 yds63%of completions
26 comp5.2 yds avg2 TD
Middle
10–19 yds32%of completions
13 comp13.7 yds avg
Deep
20+ yds5%of completions
2 comp30.0 yds avg
Overall 61.2% completion on 67 attempts.
Advanced Savant · QB · 2024
Percentile Card
Concerns: EPA / dropback.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_passing0.21Below (<p25) (n=94)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Max JohnsonNorth CarolinaNick VattiatoMiddle Tennessee· 63% simDrake LindseyMinnesota· 58% simRyan BrownePurdue· 53% sim
Interceptions
Fumbles lost
Completion %
Rush yards
Rush TDs
Yards / att
Pass TDs
Pass yards
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Pocket Passer
Balanced passer who operates within the system. Profile sits near league average across dimensions.
QB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Spencer Petras’s 2022 season.
Spencer Petras
56%match
#2
Shane Illingworth
50%
#3
Taisun Phommachanh
49%
#4
Jeff Sims
48%
#5
Jack Plummer
47%
Matches Spencer on
Total pass EPA (college ability)
Completion %
Differs from Spencer on
INT rate (lower)
Yards / attempt (lower)
Rush usage (lower)
Through 6 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Hayden Wolff’s path through Western Michigan.
Hayden Wolff
88%match
#2
Darren Grainger
86%
#3
Joe Fagnano
82%
#4
Zac Thomas
All-Sun Belt
80%
#5
Jayden Denegal
79%
Matches Hayden on
Height
Yards per attempt
Completion %
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Bill Belichick
Pass share
51.1%
355 pass / 340 run
Plays / game
57.9
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
8.4%
262 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced, slow tempo.
Coaching Lineage · 2021–2025
2 coaches2021
Mack Brown
North Carolina
2022
Mack Brown
North Carolina
2023
Mack Brown
North Carolina
2025era →
Bill Belichick
North Carolina
Coaching transition mid-career: Mack Brown → Bill Belichick. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownWatkinsville, GA
Height6'5"
Weight225 lb
Class4
PositionQB
Jersey14
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamNorth Carolina
ConferenceACC
Joined2025
Career arc5 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | North Carolina | QB4 | #915 | #867 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | ACC |
| 2023 | Texas A&M | QB4 | #76 | #68 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | SEC |
| 2022 | Texas A&M | QB4 | #344 | #391 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | SEC |
| 2021 | LSU | QB4 | #108 | #126 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | SEC |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | North Carolina | ACC | QB | 4 | No. 14 | 6-5 | 225 lb | Watkinsville, GA |
| 2024 | North Carolina | ACC | QB | 4 | No. 14 | 6-5 | 225 lb | Watkinsville, GA |
| 2023 | Texas A&M | SEC | QB | 4 | No. 14 | 6-5 | 225 lb | Watkinsville, GA |
| 2022 | Texas A&M | SEC | QB | 4 | No. 14 | 6-5 | 225 lb | Watkinsville, GA |
| 2021 | LSU | SEC | QB | 4 | No. 14 | 6-5 | 225 lb | Watkinsville, GA |