CFB Zeitgeist Score
42
Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by rush yards at the 56th percentile.
Makhi Frazier
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
520 RUSH YDS · 2 RUSH TD · 116 CARRIES
Where He Ended Up · Transfer
Transferred to Ole Miss
2025Michigan State
2026Ole Miss
RB · MICHIGAN STATE · BIG TEN
Makhi Frazier
- 2
- #5
- 5-10 | 218 lb
- McKinney, TX
Heisman Heat
#2628
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
Michigan State
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 3-star | 0.8475 | No. 1650 recruit | HighSchool | Michigan State |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Michigan State -> Ole Miss | 3-star | 0.8800 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in rushing yards (520).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to Michigan State
Composite
0.8475
#1650 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Makhi Frazier
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
90
Grounded Optimism
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=5
- National · n=1
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Makhi Frazier
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Rushing WEPA per carry
+0.070
EPA
P4 + Notre Dame RBs, min 80 carries
National rank #55 of 66
Percentile vs P4 + Notre Dame RBs, min 80 carries 17th
Why it matters
#55 of 66 P4 + Notre Dame RBs by rushing weighted- EPA per carry — +0.070 EPA/carry on 101 carries.
Vs cohort
This player +0.070 (17th)
MODERATE · n=101 cohort 66
- Also strong
- Yards per carry#51 / 69
- Rushing yards (total)#51 / 69
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 9g
520Rush yards
116Carries
2Rush TDs
Per game
57.8Rush yards
13Carries
0Rush TDs
Projected (13g)
751.1Rush yards
168Carries
3Rush TDs
To hit 750-yard season (currently 520): needs 57.5/game over remaining 4.
To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 520): needs 120/game over remaining 4.
To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 520): needs 245/game over remaining 4.
To hit 10 rushing TDs (currently 2): needs 2/game over remaining 4.
To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 2): needs 3.2/game over remaining 4.
To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 2): needs 4.5/game over remaining 4.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Makhi Frazier's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Michigan State, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Backfield contributor against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
116 83rd
YDS
520 79th
YPC
4.5 48th
TD
2 67th
Receiving
REC
12 68th
YDS
25 34th
YPR
2.1 7th
TD
0 70th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 9 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 23-6vs Western Michigan | 14 | 103 | 7.4 | 1 | 28 | |
| Wk 2 | W 42-40vs Boston College | 17 | 81 | 4.8 | 0 | 16 | |
| Wk 3 | W 41-24vs Youngstown State | 12 | 22 | 1.8 | 1 | 5 | |
| Wk 4 | L 31-45@ USC | 14 | 61 | 4.4 | 0 | 15 | |
| Wk 6 | L 27-38@ Nebraska | 18 | 58 | 3.2 | 0 | 15 | |
| Wk 7 | L 13-38vs UCLA | 12 | 58 | 4.8 | 0 | 13 | |
| Wk 8 | L 13-38@ Indiana | 7 | 1 | 0.1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Wk 9 | L 20-31vs Michigan | 14 | 109 | 7.8 | 0 | 49 | Season-high 109 yds |
| Wk 12 | L 10-28vs Penn State | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 | 11 | |
| Total | 116 | 520 | 4.2 | 2 | 49 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2025Michigan State4-8HC: Jonathan Smith · Balanced
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Michigan State | 116 | 520 | 4.5 | 2 | -- |
| Career | 1 loaded season | 116 | 520 | 4.5 | 2 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Michigan State | 12 | 25 | 2.1 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 1 loaded season | 12 | 25 | 2.1 | 0 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 520 | #154/735 | 79th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 2 | #247/739 | 67th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 4.5 | #383/735 | 48th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 12 | #180/552 | 68th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 25 | #365/548 | 34th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.07 | #263/362 | 28th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 101 weighted playsvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 24.2% | #55/738 | 93rd pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 116 | #126/739 | 83rd pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 49 | #173/733 | 77th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 12 | #365/540 | 33rd pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 2.1 | #509/548 | 7th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 0 | #169/552 | 70th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 43.9% | #40/738 | 95th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 27.8% | #52/738 | 93rd pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 27.2% | #62/738 | 92nd pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 26.8% | #36/738 | 95th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 16.7% | #50/738 | 93rd pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 16.7% | #43/738 | 94th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 6.0% | #116/738 | 84th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 9 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home6g | 66.7 | 5.0 | 0.3 |
| Road3g | 40.0 | 2.6 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins3g | 68.7 | 4.7 | 0.7 |
| Losses6g | 52.3 | 3.9 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 63.8 | 4.4 | 0.3 |
| Weeks 8+3g | 45.7 | 3.8 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
42Mid-pack
Concern: rec yards (15th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_rushing0.07Below (<p25) (n=178)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Makhi FrazierMichigan StateChavon WrightNorthern Illinois· 79% simTae MeadowsTroy· 78% simJordan BrunsonMiami (OH)· 75% sim
Carries
Rush yards
Long run
Receptions
Yards / carry
Rush TDs
Rec yards
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Workhorse
Built to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value.
RB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Darrion Dupree’s 2025 season.
Darrion Dupree
79%match
#2
Isaiah Woullard
78%
#3
Rickey Hunt
76%
#4
Kavosiey Smoke
75%
#5
Leshon Williams
75%
Matches Darrion on
Yards / carry
Receiving share
Weight
Differs from Darrion on
Recruiting rating (lower)
Through 1 college season, his career arc tracks closest to Larry Rountree III’s path through Missouri.
Larry Rountree III
99%match
All-SECNFL Rd 6
#2
Brandon High
96%
#3
Tucker Gregg
All-Sun Belt
96%
#4
Andrew Body
96%
#5
Kay'Ron Adams
95%
Matches Larry on
Yards per carry
Recruiting rating
As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Darrion Dupree's sophomore season at Wisconsin (2025).
Darrion Dupree
81%match
#2
Trey Cornist
79%
#3
Rickey Hunt
79%
#4
Micah Welch
77%
#5
Caden Williams
73%
Matches Darrion on
Receiving share
Rush TD rate
Weight
Differs from Darrion on
Recruiting rating (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Jonathan Smith
Pass share
49.7%
378 pass / 382 run
Plays / game
63.3
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
11.2%
303 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2025
1 coach2025
Jonathan Smith
Michigan State
Played his entire career under Jonathan Smith.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownMcKinney, TX
Height5'10"
Weight218 lb
Class2
PositionRB
Jersey5
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamMichigan State
ConferenceBig Ten
Joined2025
Career arc2 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Michigan State | RB2 | #2628 | #2680 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Big Ten |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Michigan State | Big Ten | RB | 2 | No. 5 | 5-10 | 218 lb | McKinney, TX |
| 2024 | Michigan State | Big Ten | RB | 2 | No. 5 | 5-10 | 218 lb | McKinney, TX |