CFB Zeitgeist Score
32
Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by pass yards at the 45th percentile.
Maalik Murphy
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
1,802 PASS YDS · 9 PASS TD · -58 RUSH YDS
2026 Outlook
Returning to Oregon State for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Returning starter
Quarterback · Oregon State · editorial
Returning around him
- 52% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- Transfer portal: -15 net (20 in / 35 out)
2026 Award watch
- Davey O'Brien
Oregon State · Last season: 2-10 · Talent rank #60 · 2026 recruiting class #64
QB · OREGON STATE · PAC-12
Maalik Murphy
- 3
- #6
- 6-5 | 234 lb
- Inglewood, CA
Heisman Heat
#46
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP QB AWARD
Davey O'Brien
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · passing yards
2023–2025+278%
Up 278% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
3 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4-star | 0.9292 | No. 179 recruit | HighSchool | Texas |
| 2021 | 4-star | 0.8904 | No. 393 recruit | HighSchool | Texas |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Duke -> Oregon State | 4-star | 0.9200 | Immediate |
| 2024 | Texas -> Duke | 4-star | 0.9300 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in passing yards (1802).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★★☆
to Texas
Composite
0.9292
#179 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Maalik Murphy
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
—
Awaiting per-cohort signal
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- National · n=8
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Maalik Murphy
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the passing totals stand
Through 10g
1,802Pass yards
9Pass TDs
8INT
Per game
180.2Pass yards
1Pass TDs
1INT
Projected (13g)
2,343Pass yards
12Pass TDs
10INT
To hit 3,000-yard season (currently 1,802): needs 399.3/game over remaining 3.
To hit 4,000-yard season (currently 1,802): needs 732.7/game over remaining 3.
To hit 25 passing TDs (currently 9): needs 5.3/game over remaining 3.
To hit 30 passing TDs (currently 9): needs 7/game over remaining 3.
To hit 35 passing TDs (currently 9): needs 8.7/game over remaining 3.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Maalik Murphy's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Oregon State, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
QB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Steady volume | Pocket-leaning against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Passing Efficiency
CMP
160 74th
ATT
276 78th
CMP%
58.0% 35th
Y/A
6.5 41st
Passing Production
YDS
1,802 74th
TD
9 71st
INT
8 17th
Rushing
CAR
23 53rd
YDS
-58 3rd
YPC
-2.5 6th
TD
1 63rd
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 10 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 15-34vs California | 21/33 | 244 | 0 | 1 | 7.4 | 43.1 | |
| Wk 2 | L 27-36vs Fresno State | 31/48 | 371 | 4 | 2 | 7.7 | 64.6 | Season-high 371 yds |
| Wk 3 | L 14-45@ Texas Tech | 24/43 | 278 | 2 | 2 | 6.5 | 32.5 | |
| Wk 4 | L 7-41@ Oregon | 5/18 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 3.8 | 66.6 | |
| Wk 5 | L 24-27vs Houston | 20/33 | 201 | 1 | 0 | 6.1 | 57.6 | |
| Wk 6 | L 23-27@ App State | 30/45 | 358 | 2 | 2 | 8.0 | 72.6 | |
| Wk 7 | L 14-39vs Wake Forest | 13/30 | 130 | 0 | 1 | 4.3 | 12.0 | |
| Wk 8 | W 45-13vs Lafayette | 9/12 | 69 | 0 | 0 | 5.8 | 25.5 | |
| Wk 10 | W 10-7vs Washington State | 2/3 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 9.0 | 6.8 | |
| Wk 12 | L 14-31@ Tulsa | 5/11 | 56 | 0 | 0 | 5.1 | 21.0 | |
| Total | 160/276 | 1802 | 9 | 8 | 6.4 | 40.2 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2023Texas12-2HC: Steve Sarkisian · Balanced
2024Duke9-4HC: Manny Diaz · Pass-leaning
2025Oregon State2-10HC: Trent Bray · Balanced
| Season | Team | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Oregon State | 160 | 276 | 58.0% | 1,802 | 6.5 | 9 | 8 | 117.8 | -- | -- |
| 2024 | Duke | 254 | 421 | 60.3% | 2,932 | 7.0 | 26 | 12 | 133.5 | -- | -- |
| 2023 | Texas | 40 | 71 | 56.3% | 477 | 6.7 | 3 | 3 | 118.3 | -- | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 454 | 768 | 59.1% | 5,211 | 6.8 | 38 | 23 | 126.4 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Oregon State | 23 | -58 | -2.5 | 1 | -- |
| 2024 | Duke | 19 | -79 | -4.2 | 2 | -- |
| 2023 | Texas | 1 | -18 | -18.0 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 43 | -155 | -3.6 | 3 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.
How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Passing yards | 1,802 | #102/382 | 74th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Pass TD | 9 | #117/407 | 71st pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completions | 160 | #100/383 | 74th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completion % | 58.0% | #249/383 | 35th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Yards / attempt | 6.5 | #226/382 | 41st pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | -58 | #398/408 | 3rd pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Value | Passing WEPA | +0.31 | #69/200 | 66th pct | Opponent-adjusted passing value | 267 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Role share | 41.3% | #140/428 | 68th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Attempts | 276 | #92/407 | 78th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Interceptions | 8 | #339/407 | 17th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Carries | 23 | #193/408 | 53rd pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 11 | #281/391 | 28th pct | Metricvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 1 | #151/408 | 63rd pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | -2.5 | #384/407 | 6th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Pass share | 75.3% | #132/428 | 69th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 55.0% | #133/428 | 69th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 53.8% | #134/428 | 69th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 37.7% | #121/428 | 72nd pct | Early-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 37.6% | #151/428 | 65th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 34.9% | #140/428 | 68th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Rush share | 4.0% | #300/428 | 30th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 0 | #1/258 | 100th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 10 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home6g | 174 | 0.8 | 6.7 | 0.7 |
| Road4g | 190 | 1.0 | 5.8 | 1.0 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins2g | 48.0 | 0.0 | 7.4 | 0.0 |
| Losses8g | 213 | 1.1 | 6.1 | 1.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-77g | 236 | 1.3 | 6.3 | 1.1 |
| Weeks 8+3g | 50.7 | 0.0 | 6.6 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
32Below cohort
Elite: fumbles lost (91st). Concern: rush yards (5th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Pass Profile · Completion depth (PBP)
Where the throws are landing
Short
0–9 yds51%of completions
70 comp5.6 yds avg4 TD
Middle
10–19 yds32%of completions
44 comp13.5 yds avg2 TD
Deep
20+ yds17%of completions
23 comp27.3 yds avg1 TD
Overall 54.8% completion on 250 attempts · 23 deep completions averaging 27.3 yds.
Advanced Savant · QB · 2024
Percentile Card
Reads as a mid-tier profile across the board..
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_passing0.31Mid (p50–p75) (n=94)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Maalik MurphyOregon StateNick VattiatoMiddle Tennessee· 81% simDrake LindseyMinnesota· 76% simPreston StoneNorthwestern· 74% sim
Fumbles lost
Pass yards
Pass TDs
Interceptions
Rush TDs
Yards / att
Completion %
Rush yards
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Pocket Passer
Balanced passer who operates within the system. Profile sits near league average across dimensions.
QB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Spencer Petras’s 2021 season.
Spencer Petras
74%match
#2
Jalen Kitna
70%
#3
Phil Jurkovec
69%
#4
Spencer Petras
68%
#5
Zach Calzada
68%
Matches Spencer on
Rush yards / carry
Total pass EPA (college ability)
Differs from Spencer on
EPA / dropback (adj) (higher)
Recruiting rating (higher)
Rush usage (lower)
Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to DJ Williams’s path through Southern Illinois.
DJ Williams
84%match
#2
Jacurri Brown
84%
#3
Shane Illingworth
84%
#4
Malik Washington
83%
#5
Cornelious Brown
83%
Matches DJ on
Completion %
Yards per attempt
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Spencer Petras's junior season at Iowa (2022).
Spencer Petras
68%match
#2
Phil Jurkovec
67%
#3
Ryan Hilinski
65%
#4
Shane Illingworth
60%
#5
Jalen Kitna
59%
Differs from Spencer on
Class year (lower)
INT rate (higher)
Rush usage (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Trent Bray
Pass share
51.7%
431 pass / 403 run
Plays / game
69.5
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
7.0%
369 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025
2 coaches2023
Jonathan Smith
Oregon State
2024era →
Trent Bray
Oregon State
2025
Trent Bray
Oregon State
Coaching transition mid-career: Jonathan Smith → Trent Bray. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownInglewood, CA
Height6'5"
Weight234 lb
Class3
PositionQB
Jersey6
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamOregon State
ConferencePac-12
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Oregon State | Pac-12 | QB | 3 | No. 6 | 6-5 | 234 lb | Inglewood, CA |
| 2024 | Duke | ACC | QB | 3 | No. 6 | 6-5 | 234 lb | Inglewood, CA |
| 2023 | Texas | Big 12 | QB | 3 | No. 6 | 6-5 | 234 lb | Inglewood, CA |
| 2022 | Texas | Big 12 | QB | 3 | No. 6 | 6-5 | 234 lb | Inglewood, CA |