CFB Zeitgeist Score
69
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by rec yards at the 81st percentile.
Leland Smith
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
695 REC YDS · 43 REC · 3 REC TD
Where He Ended Up · Transfer
Transferred to UCLA
2025San José State
2026UCLA
WR · SAN JOSÉ STATE · MOUNTAIN WEST
Leland Smith
- 3
- #1
- 6-4 | 215 lb
- Houston, TX
Heisman Heat
#1602
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP WR AWARD
Biletnikoff
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR05 · Part-time starter
Part-time starter. Splitting first-team reps.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · receiving yards
2024–2025+865%
Up 865% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Heisman futures · live sportsbook odds
#8 in market ▼ from #6 · 4 books
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 3-star | 0.8856 | No. 14 recruit | JUCO | Purdue |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | San José State -> UCLA | 3-star | 0.8600 | Immediate |
| 2025 | Purdue -> San José State | 3-star | 0.8500 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to Purdue
Composite
0.8856
#14 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Leland Smith
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
100
Grounded Optimism
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=1
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Leland Smith
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Yards per reception
16.2
yds
All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions
National rank #60 of 531
Percentile vs All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions 89th
Why it matters
#60 of 531 All FBS WRs at 16.2 yards per reception (43 catches).
Vs cohort
This player 16.2 (89th)
HIGH · n=43 cohort 531
- Also strong
- Receiving yards (total)#99 / 531
- Receiving TDs#222 / 531
Signature Moment
Week 11 vs Air Force — 144 ypr
Result L 16-26
The week the volume broke through — put up 144 yds vs Air Force.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the receiving totals stand
Through 11g
695Rec yards
43Receptions
3Rec TDs
Per game
63.2Rec yards
4Receptions
0Rec TDs
Projected (13g)
821.4Rec yards
51Receptions
4Rec TDs
To hit 700-yard receiver (currently 695): needs 2.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 1,000-yard receiver (currently 695): needs 152.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 60-catch season (currently 43): needs 8.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 80-catch season (currently 43): needs 18.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 8 receiving TDs (currently 3): needs 2.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 10 receiving TDs (currently 3): needs 3.5/game over remaining 2.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Leland Smith's story is about how role and output meet each other. For San José State, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
WR season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Target magnet | Big-play receiver against FBS receiving peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Receiving
REC
43 85th
YDS
695 91st
YPR
16.2 83rd
TD
3 82nd
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 11 games
| Wk | Opp | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 14-16vs Central Michigan | 2 | 50 | 25.0 | 1 | 39 | |
| Wk 4 | W 31-28vs Idaho | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 | 9 | |
| Wk 5 | L 29-30@ Stanford | 6 | 101 | 16.8 | 0 | 37 | |
| Wk 6 | W 35-28vs New Mexico | 6 | 61 | 10.2 | 1 | 16 | |
| Wk 7 | L 28-35@ Wyoming | 4 | 48 | 12.0 | 0 | 19 | |
| Wk 8 | L 25-30@ Utah State | 4 | 116 | 29.0 | 1 | 45 | |
| Wk 10 | W 45-38vs Hawai'i | 4 | 113 | 28.3 | 0 | 42 | |
| Wk 11 | L 16-26vs Air Force | 9 | 144 | 16.0 | 0 | 36 | Season-high 144 yds |
| Wk 12 | L 10-55@ Nevada | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 | 8 | |
| Wk 13 | L 3-25@ San Diego State | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 0 | 11 | |
| Wk 14 | L 14-41vs Fresno State | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 | |
| Total | 43 | 695 | 15.1 | 3 | 45 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2024Purdue1-11HC: Ryan Walters · Balanced, slow tempo
2025San José State3-9HC: Ken Niumatalolo · Pass-leaning
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | San José State | 43 | 695 | 16.2 | 3 | -- |
| 2024 | Purdue | 6 | 72 | 12.0 | 2 | -- |
| Career | 2 loaded seasons | 49 | 767 | 15.7 | 5 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | San José State | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2024 | Purdue | -- | -- | 25 | -- | -- |
| Career | 2 loaded seasons | -- | -- | 25 | -- | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
The player's share of a team's passing-game involvement. It is the fastest way to see whether the receiver is a true focal point or more of a complementary piece.
A blended workload view that accounts for catches, designed touches, and any return-game involvement that shapes the overall profile.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | Receptions | 43 | #166/1110 | 85th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 695 | #106/1107 | 91st pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 3 | #206/1111 | 82nd pct | Scoringvs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 16.2 | #193/1106 | 83rd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Pass share | 16.7% | #176/1137 | 85th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 45 | #344/1105 | 69th pct | Metricvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 11.0% | #181/1137 | 84th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 10.7% | #72/1137 | 94th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 10.2% | #106/1137 | 91st pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Role share | 10.0% | #98/1137 | 91st pct | Share of team offensevs FBS WR |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 9.5% | #82/1137 | 93rd pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 8.1% | #366/1137 | 68th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Rush share | 0.0% | #391/1137 | 66th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS WR |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 11 games
Home vs Road
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home6g | 4.0 | 65.2 | 15.7 | 0.3 |
| Road5g | 3.8 | 60.8 | 14.5 | 0.2 |
Win vs Loss
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins3g | 4.0 | 63.7 | 15.7 | 0.3 |
| Losses8g | 3.9 | 63.0 | 14.9 | 0.2 |
First half vs Second half
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-75g | 4.0 | 55.4 | 14.5 | 0.4 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 3.8 | 69.7 | 15.7 | 0.2 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort
69Solid starter
Elite: yards / catch (85th). Strength: rec yards (81st).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · WR · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Leland SmithSan José StateNik McMillanBuffalo· 86% simHarrison Wallace IIIOle Miss· 85% simSean WilsonDelaware· 79% sim
Yards / catch
Rec yards
Receptions
Rec TDs
Long catch
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Deep Threat
Stretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play.
WR
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Dalevon Campbell’s 2023 season.
Dalevon Campbell
83%match
#2
Hayden Eligon II
80%
#3
Donaven McCulley
80%
#4
Jahdae Walker
77%
#5
Chase Roberts
77%
Matches Dalevon on
Yards / reception
Total EPA (college ability)
Weight
Differs from Dalevon on
Reception volume (higher)
Through 1 college season, his career arc tracks closest to Kahtero Summers’s path through Rhode Island.
Kahtero Summers
99%match
#2
Michael Jefferson
All-Sun Belt
92%
#3
Joseph Griffin Jr.
90%
#4
Will Vereen
90%
#5
RaJae Johnson
90%
Matches Kahtero on
Yards per reception
As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Hayden Eligon II's sophomore season at Northwestern (2025).
Hayden Eligon II
82%match
#2
Cornelius Johnson
NFL Rd 7
77%
#3
Bryce Ford-Wheaton
72%
#4
Ben Yurosek
67%
#5
Braden Pegan
All-Mountain West
72%
Matches Hayden on
Yards / reception
Weight
Total EPA (college ability)
Differs from Hayden on
Class year (higher)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Ken Niumatalolo
Pass share
61.1%
486 pass / 310 run
Plays / game
66.3
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
2.1%
420 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Pass-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2024–2025
1 coach2024
Ken Niumatalolo
San José State
2025
Ken Niumatalolo
San José State
Played his entire career under Ken Niumatalolo.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownHouston, TX
Height6'4"
Weight215 lb
Class3
PositionWR
Jersey1
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamSan José State
ConferenceMountain West
Joined2025
Career arc2 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Purdue | WR3 | #1602 | #2429 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Big Ten |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | San José State | Mountain West | WR | 3 | No. 1 | 6-4 | 215 lb | Houston, TX |
| 2024 | Purdue | Big Ten | WR | 3 | No. 1 | 6-4 | 215 lb | Houston, TX |