cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Korey Smith /Middle Tennessee

Korey Smith

LB · Middle Tennessee · So · #58

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

38 TACKLES · 0 SACKS

2026 RETURNINGReturning to Middle Tennessee for 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to Middle Tennessee for 2026

2026 Depth chart

Projected starter

Linebacker · Middle Tennessee

Returning around him

  • 99% of 2024 offensive production back (Strong continuity)
  • 1 Middle Tennessee player drafted to NFL
  • Transfer portal: +1 net (19 in / 18 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

Middle Tennessee · Last season: 3-9 · Talent rank #110 · 2026 recruiting class #98

LB · MIDDLE TENNESSEE · CONFERENCE USA

Korey Smith

  • 2
  • #58
  • 5-11 | 225 lb
  • Murfreesboro, TN

CFB Zeitgeist Score

39

Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by passes defended at the 67th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#15668

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP LB AWARD

Butkus

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R06 · Starter

Starter. A locked-in starting role.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★
#1509 national
CFB
College
Middle Tennessee
2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Heisman futures · live sportsbook odds

#8 in market ▼ from #6 · 4 books

+10009.1% implied

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionLB
Class2
Jersey58
Measurements5-11 | 225 lb
HometownMurfreesboro, TN
Primary teamMiddle Tennessee

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 1509 recruit
Composite rating 0.8519 HighSchool
Signed with -- 2024
Origin Oakland Murfreesboro, TN, USA
Class Profile Context
2024 3-star | 0.8519 No. 1509 recruit | HighSchool

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 1 Programs changed on file
Latest destination -- 2021
Transfer stars 3-star CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility TBD Jan 9, 2021
Season Move Context
2021 Boston College -> -- 3-star | TBD

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#15668Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#15757Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to —

Composite

0.8519

#1509 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Korey Smith

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Korey Smith

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the defensive totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 10g
38Tackles
0.5Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Per game
4Tackles
0.1Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Projected (13g)
49Tackles
0.7Tackles for loss
0Sacks

To hit 80-tackle season (currently 38): needs 14/game over remaining 3.

To hit 100-tackle season (currently 38): needs 20.7/game over remaining 3.

To hit 6-sack season (currently 0): needs 2/game over remaining 3.

To hit 10-sack season (currently 0): needs 3.3/game over remaining 3.

Why this is a rare defensive case

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Korey Smith is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Middle Tennessee's defense, with 0.0 sacks, 0.5 tackles for loss, and 1 interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.

Current place #15668 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load -- Role share still loading
Profile quirk Defensive rarity 0.0 sacks | 0.5 TFL

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

DEF season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Total tackles 38 19 solo | #976/4942 (80th pct)
TFL 0.5 Backfield disruption | #2658/4972 (47th pct)
Sacks 0.0 Pass-rush finish | #1762/4972 (65th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

High-volume tackler against FBS defenders.

High-volume tackler

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Tackling & Disruption

TOT
38 80th
SOLO
19 76th
TFL
0.5 47th
SACK
0.0 65th

Coverage & Takeaways

PD
2 64th
INT
1 65th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 10 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppTKLSOLOTFLSACKINTPDNote
Wk 1L 14-34vs Austin Peay410.50.01
Wk 2L 10-42@ Wisconsin310.00.00
Wk 3W 14-13@ Nevada220.00.00
Wk 4L 28-42vs Marshall210.00.00
Wk 5L 16-24@ Kennesaw State220.00.00
Wk 7L 20-22vs Missouri State110.00.00
Wk 11L 30-56vs Florida International400.00.010
Wk 12L 26-42@ Western Kentucky1180.00.00Season-high 11 tackles
Wk 13W 31-17vs Sam Houston310.00.00
Wk 14W 31-24@ New Mexico State620.00.01
Total38190.50.012
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2025Middle Tennessee3-9HC: Derek Mason · Pass-leaning
SeasonTeam
2025Middle Tennessee38190.50.021--
Career1 loaded season38190.50.021--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Disruption stats

TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.

Coverage splash

Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

INT 1 0 pick-six TD | #308/869 (65th pct)
Pass breakups 2 Coverage disruption | #792/2184 (64th pct)
QB pressures 0 Quarterback hurries
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Defense Total tackles 38 #976/4942 80th pct Volumevs FBS DEF
Defense TFL 0.5 #2658/4972 47th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Sacks 0.0 #1762/4972 65th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Interceptions 1 #308/869 65th pct Takeawaysvs FBS DEF
Defense Pass breakups 2 #792/2184 64th pct Coveragevs FBS DEF
Defense Solo tackles 19 #1095/4584 76th pct Volumevs FBS DEF
Defense Fumbles recovered 1 #103/736 86th pct Takeawaysvs FBS DEF
Ball Security Fumbles lost 0 #1/773 100th pct Turnoversvs FBS DEF

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

The Butkus award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 10 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Home5g2.80.10.00.2
Road5g4.80.00.00.2

Win vs Loss

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Wins3g3.70.00.00.3
Losses7g3.90.10.00.1

First half vs Second half

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Weeks 1-76g2.30.10.00.2
Weeks 8+4g6.00.00.00.2

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the LB cohort

39Mid-pack
8 metrics · season cumulative

Concern: tackles for loss (18th).

Passes defended#777 / 2975 · 67th pct
2defe
Tackles#976 / 2975 · 67th pct
38defe
Solo tackles#1095 / 2975 · 62nd pct
19defe
Forced fumbles#36 / 687 · 47th pct
0fumb
Interceptions#304 / 817 · 31st pct
1inte
Sacks#1575 / 2975 · 24th pct
0.0defe
QB hurries#1662 / 2975 · 22nd pct
0defe
Tackles for loss#2332 / 2975 · 18th pct
0.5defe

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · LB · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 8 metrics
Korey SmithMiddle TennesseeTyler MartinMassachusetts· 79% simTahj Ra-ElPurdue· 75% simBrevin HamblinUtah State· 70% sim
Passes defended
67
Smith
67
Martin
91
Ra-El
98
Hamblin
Tackles
67
Smith
98
Martin
99
Ra-El
99
Hamblin
Solo tackles
62
Smith
87
Martin
100
Ra-El
99
Hamblin
Forced fumbles
47
Smith
47
Martin
47
Ra-El
47
Hamblin
Interceptions
31
Smith
31
Martin
31
Hamblin
Sacks
24
Smith
24
Martin
24
Ra-El
74
Hamblin
QB hurries
22
Smith
22
Martin
22
Ra-El
22
Hamblin
Tackles for loss
18
Smith
63
Martin
56
Ra-El
56
Hamblin

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Coverage 'Backer

Carries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage.

LB

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Kailep Edwards’s 2023 season.

Kailep Edwards

80%match

Louisiana · 2023

#2

Trevor Denbow

SMU · 2021

79%
#3

Tylan McNichols

UAB · 2025

79%
#4

Hudson Miller

Purdue · 2024

78%
#5

Jayden Montgomery

Iowa · 2025

78%

Matches Kailep on

TFL rate
PD rate
Weight

Differs from Kailep on

Height (lower)
Class year (higher)

Not enough data yet for this comparison.

As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Josh Anglin's sophomore season at Tulsa (2025).

Josh Anglin

90%match

Tulsa · 2025

#2

Tylan McNichols

UAB · 2025

85%
#3

Sayed Abuhamdeh

Kent State · 2025

81%
#4

Ike Esonwune

Oklahoma State · 2025

80%
#5

Jordan Jones

Georgia State · 2022

79%

Matches Josh on

Class year
Height
Weight

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Derek Mason

Pass share

61.3%

495 pass / 313 run

Plays / game

67.3

12 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

8.6%

373 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Pass-leaning.

Coaching Lineage · 2025

1 coach
2025
Derek Mason
Middle Tennessee

Played his entire career under Derek Mason.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownMurfreesboro, TN
Height5'11"
Weight225 lb
Class2
PositionLB
Jersey58

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Middle Tennessee LB2 #15668 #15757 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | Conference USA

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Middle Tennessee Conference USA LB 2 No. 58 | 5-11 | 225 lb | Murfreesboro, TN
2024 Middle Tennessee Conference USA LB 2 No. 58 | 5-11 | 225 lb | Murfreesboro, TN